Alternate History Ideas and Discussion

[TheRomanSlayer]

Then,we have 2 possibility:
1.He fight reds and die
2.He fight reds and help win.

1- nothing really changed,2 - Not-stalin help rebuild russian empire.

Or alternatively, he becomes the leader of an independent Georgia or leads a different Transcaucasian Federation that is basically the Caucasian Switzerland. But if we’re going with not-Stalin rebuilding the Russian Empire, he might be a more mellowed version of Kaiserreich’s Boris Savinkov.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

A while ago, while I was still active on AH.com, I posted a thread about a different successor to Suleiman the Magnificent, and how the Ottomans were ultimately doomed with the succession of Selim II (he is known as the Sot, meaning Blond, and Sarhos, meaning Drunk, due to his notorious reputation as an alcoholic), and his ignominious death that led to an even worse Sultan in Murad III (known for being financially inept and siring over 19 children, before Sultan Mehmed III pulled a Joffrey and killed all his siblings).

I did come up with potential successors in this case:

Sehzade Mustafa: a popular choice, but the problem is that he’s Suleiman’s son with Mahidevran Sultan, and Hurrem being the ultimate schemer, would conspire with Rustem Pasha to have him killed. His lack of skill in intrigue is what makes him the Ottoman Ned Stark.

Sehzade Mehmed: the firstborn son of Suleiman with Hurrem. Unfortunately, he died of smallpox.

Sehzade Bayezid: A much more active warrior who is also prone to losing his temper. Would have been even worse than Selim in this case.

Sehzade Cihangir: a completely smart prince, but his main problems were that he’s crippled and he suffers from a variety of health problems.

So who would be better than Selim the Drunk?

 

[Zyobot]

'19th Century Nazis'.

They don't necessarily have to be German, mind you. But they should probably still keep the totalitarianism and genocidally Eurocentric inclinations, with their Fuhrer equivalent being a murderous maniac along the lines of a certain Austrian minor who's far too young to take public office.

 

[ATP]

'19th Century Nazis'.

They don't necessarily have to be German, mind you. But they should probably still keep the totalitarianism and genocidally Eurocentric inclinations, with their Fuhrer equivalent being a murderous maniac along the lines of a certain Austrian minor who's far too young to take public office.

All you need is succesfull revolution - no matter where - which turn that way.Problem is - all European superpowers would attack such country,so it would not last long.
Unless you made Fuhler real genius,not idiot like Adolf.

Which mean - it must be 1830 or 1848,there were no other period of times with bigger revolutions in few countries.
France? Poland? Hungary? Austria ?

 

[stevep]

All you need is succesfull revolution - no matter where - which turn that way.Problem is - all European superpowers would attack such country,so it would not last long.
Unless you made Fuhler real genius,not idiot like Adolf.

Which mean - it must be 1830 or 1848,there were no other period of times with bigger revolutions in few countries.
France? Poland? Hungary? Austria ?

Actually the bulk of the revolutions in Europe and that time period were liberal ones. Of course any revolution, especially if threatened internally or externally, can go dark but its not certain. In the 1st half of the 19thC the brutal autocrats willing to kill a lot of people were generally those the revolutionaries were seeking to overthrow.

 

[ATP]

Actually the bulk of the revolutions in Europe and that time period were liberal ones. Of course any revolution, especially if threatened internally or externally, can go dark but its not certain. In the 1st half of the 19thC the brutal autocrats willing to kill a lot of people were generally those the revolutionaries were seeking to overthrow.

True.But the same was true about beginning of 1789 revolution.
If you want 19th century nazis,they must take over one country after liberal revolution,and then repel all attack of Europe Monarchs.Very improbable,but not impossible.

 

[stevep]

True.But the same was true about beginning of 1789 revolution.
If you want 19th century nazis,they must take over one country after liberal revolution,and then repel all attack of Europe Monarchs.Very improbable,but not impossible.

Why? No 20thC Nazis take over a country as a result of a liberal revolution. They all gained power by replacing liberal governments. Or a largely mainstream socialist one in the case of Spain.

 

[ATP]

Why? No 20thC Nazis take over a country as a result of a liberal revolution. They all gained power by replacing liberal governments. Or a largely mainstream socialist one in the case of Spain.

Sorry for being unclear.our hipothetical nazis need revolution to take power,and could not start it by themselves.
So,only possibility is take over liberal revolution and turn it into some kind of nazi revolution.

 

[stevep]

Sorry for being unclear.our hipothetical nazis need revolution to take power,and could not start it by themselves.
So,only possibility is take over liberal revolution and turn it into some kind of nazi revolution.

ATP

Thanks for the clarification but still doubtful they they couldn't use revolution/rebellion or internal conflicts inside the state themselves as they did during the 20thC?

Steve

 

[ATP]

ATP

Thanks for the clarification but still doubtful they they couldn't use revolution/rebellion or internal conflicts inside the state themselves as they did during the 20thC?

Steve

They could - but best chance is revolution started by somebody else,all they need is take over.old regime is destroyed,new one is still fragile - best opportunity to strike.
Lost war would worked,too - but we have less lost war in 19th century then revolutions.

 

[Zyobot]

'ToRT Soviet Union To AANW'.

To quote myself from the other forum:


Once the dust settles and he's told what has happened, Stalin is shocked and livid at the Nazis not only being active again, but also that they were in the process of destroying Eastern Europe so thoroughly ITTL. He might, in his demented state, also equate the Reich existing with Hitler being alive (which no one will correct him on, if they value their lives and keeping all their limbs intact).

After arresting and executing the poor souls who deliver the news--along with their friends, families, and associates at least getting a few decades in the Gulag--he calls an immediate meeting and plans how to punish Germany and its allies as brutally as possible. Soon, he gets a "delightful sadistic" idea for how to "return the favor."

Diplomacy with the Reich goes about as well as you'd expect. Maybe even worse, such as the MGB kidnapping some German diplomats and/or dragging Nazi inmates out of their Gulags to be tortured, interrogated, and publicly questioned in broadcast show trials before being gruesomely executed in a dark cellar in Siberia. The purpose of such an act would be three-fold: a) to drum up a pro-war frenzy among the Soviet people, b) to show the W/Allies how bad the Nazis really are, and c) to set a trap the Reich would be all too willing to walk into.

The natural follow-up to the latter would be an un-serious peace proposal, in which the Nazis agree to an immediate and total surrender, in exchange for the Soviets responding with "forgiveness" and "clemency" in the occupational phase. Obviously, Himmler refuses, and likely goes off on a psychotic rant about how the "Slavic subhumans" have no right to tell him what do do and must submit to "Aryan domination." And thus, Stalin's trap is sprung, giving the USSR a mandate to declare war and give as good as their AANW counterparts got with new fire.

Unmitigated disaster notwithstanding, I'm not too certain of what follows after, though I'd be willing to hedge a few guesses involving a series of mass-deportations and continuation of the Soviet Pogrom at home, and genocidal atrocities and barrage after barrage of "atomic surprises" abroad, as the USSR cuts a bloody swath of its own in its march through Europe. Using Stalin's unhinged reaction to Mao's insubordination as a benchmark, I can easily visualize him dropping his first hydrogen bomb on a city other than Berlin--perhaps on an Italian city rather than a German one--just to terrify the Nazi leadership, get semi-sane members to oust Himmler, and agree to a surrender. Then going "Psyche!" and unleashing dozens upon dozens more hydrogen bombs, before imposing his own, more nuke-happy version of Generalplan Ost onto the defeated and disemboweled Third Reich.

War with the W/Allies begins. Only, instead of liberating Europe from the Nazi jackboot, they'll be freeing it from Stalin's iron grip at similar--or perhaps even greater--cost than IOTL, thanks to Soviet nukes.

 

[Zyobot]

'Ancient Roman Leadership Reacts To YouTube (49 BC)'.

Which, not so coincidentally, is the year Caesar's Civil War leading up to the end of the Republic begins. As usual, YouTube is shown via lots of TVs with joystick-like controls and the miniaturized infrastructure needed to power and maintain them (i.e. hand-cranked power generators), with ASB providing a friendly note explaining what it is and the future it depicts.

Their immediate future and the rise and fall of the coming empire aside, I wonder what they'd think of the next millennium and a half leading up to ~2021? Mind-boggled is the obvious answer, followed by mixed emotions over what the future brings and inevitable attempts to alter the course of history. Discovering the Americas centuries ahead of schedule, preventing Germany from becoming the industrial heartland of Europe, and ensuring they amass a larger empire than those "Damnable Britons!" from the future among them.

 

[Zyobot]

‘2011 US And Russia To 1811’.

ASB also forbids both from invading Europe, though they may repel downtimers attempting to do the same to them and may grab up non-European lands. In which case, I assume the US may want Canada, depending on how well diplomacy with Britain goes. There's also no prohibition against waging proxy wars or beneficial "exchanges" with 1811 nations, so make of that what you will.

 

[Skallagrim]

‘2011 US And Russia To 1811’.

ASB also forbids both from invading Europe, though they may repel downtimers attempting to do the same to them and may grab up non-European lands. In which case, I assume the US may want Canada, depending on how well diplomacy with Britain goes. There's also no prohibition against waging proxy wars or beneficial "exchanges" with 1811 nations, so make of that what you will.

Both the USA and Russia have serious supplies of gas/oil. That means they won't even have to scramble (too much) to keep their modern tech in working order. The advantage they have over the rest of the world is staggeringly ludicrous. There will be no need for 'diplomacy' over Canada, for instance. Not when a single US warship can, by its lonesome, destroy the entire Royal Navy if it so wishes -- without even taking a single hit, if it really wants to make an effort.

1811, you need line-of-sight just to hit an enemy. 2011, you can obliterate cities from across the planet.

This doesn't mean they'll outright do that, but there will be no question that the ISOTed powers will rule the world. Those who petition to become their loyal vassals first will benefit from trade, and will (over a century or so) become the second-rate powers of the world. Those who try to resist.... are just plain screwed.

 

[Zyobot]

Both the USA and Russia have serious supplies of gas/oil. That means they won't even have to scramble (too much) to keep their modern tech in working order. The advantage they have over the rest of the world is staggeringly ludicrous. There will be no need for 'diplomacy' over Canada, for instance. Not when a single US warship can, by its lonesome, destroy the entire Royal Navy if it so wishes -- without even taking a single hit, if it really wants to make an effort.

1811, you need line-of-sight just to hit an enemy. 2011, you can obliterate cities from across the planet.

This doesn't mean they'll outright do that, but there will be no question that the ISOTed powers will rule the world. Those who petition to become their loyal vassals first will benefit from trade, and will (over a century or so) become the second-rate powers of the world. Those who try to resist.... are just plain screwed.

Thanks for outlining how screwed everyone else is!

More seriously, though, I'm guessing fracking and expanding drilling are now considerably less of an issue in the US. Not sure what oil politics look like in Russia, but I know that it's a big industry and suspect they'll also make it out okay energy-wise, as you've said. Problem is, they're cut off from their overseas trading partners and either have to rebuild their domestic industries or recreate them out of 1811 nations (i.e. the US losing access to Chinese manufacturing or Taiwanese computer chips). Again, not sure what Russia's trade situation looks like, but given how interconnected twenty-first century supply chains are, I doubt that they're 100 percent fine in the short run, even assuming they can rebuild what they've lost quickly.

In any case, I guess the most "interesting" developments will be in international politics. All the spotlight is now on the US and Russia, both of which mainstream Europe regarded as "outsiders" who weren't fully "like us". Which isn't technically wrong here, either, though they have far more reason to take the uptimers seriously when it becomes clear not just what the raw power disparity is here, but also how the future they came from saw them become sole competitors for global hegemony—whereas the European empires had all vanished. Ditto with the US having a black POTUS, which the downtimers will need to get used to, assuming the "rally-around-the-flag" effect carries Obama to a second term into 2012, sorry, 1812.

So, with the Napoleonic Wars on pause and the US and Russia establishing diplomatic relations with downtimers, who will fall into what camp and what do the next few years (or decades) look like? While it'll no doubt have its reservations about becoming second fiddle, my guess is that France (reluctantly) aligns with the US. His invasion may be overshadowed by the Great Patriotic War in Russia's living memory, but I don't recall Napoleon himself having much (if any) beef with the US historically and he may find it more receptive to a "partnership" of sorts than the Russians. I don't where the other European empires will align, though I've a strong suspicion the British will resent the US for picking off Canada here and overtaking them as the most powerful nation in the world elsewhere, which Putin may try and exploit in true Putinist fashion. Goodbye Napoleonic Wars, hello Second Cold War!

 

[Zyobot]

'Vladimir Putin SI To Tsar Nicholas II'.

(This happens on January 1st, 1905, just so we're clear.)

 

[Buba]

'Vladimir Putin SI To Tsar Nicholas II'.

(This happens on January 1st, 1905, just so we're clear.)

Gleefuly rubs hands in Russian - "Now Russia can into space" ...

With Putin's knowledge, Russia wins the Manchurian War (@Zyobot cruely timed the ISOT to the tail end of the war). This does not take much - by mid year Japan will be running on financial fumes, hence "not making further mistakes" and "waiting Japan out", with no 1905 Revolution (Putin knows what NOT to do, what to do*, and whom to arrest/kill) - are enough. Kicking Japan out of Korea will take some effort, though.

Trotski, Lenin, Stalin, Zinoviev, Kirov, Molotov etc. all are dead very quickly. Childhood heroes or not, they are mad dogs and a threat to him.

Changes from 1905 onward are so huge that simply impossible to predict.
Like there could be a World War in 1913, resulting from the 1st Balkan War - and a World War which Russia would win - if Putin wants this to happen.
But will he?
I'm not Putin so I can't say

To avoid unrest he will give some measure of democracy. Maybe allow limited representation like in the UK?

Russia will get the Bomb in the (late) 1930s (many scientific discoveries have to be made for that to happen).

Vlad will manage the economy better - he will boost the GDP growth rate (already high) even further and Russia will equal/surpass Germany inside a decade. Not a high bar, considering that in OTL the two were within 10% of one another in size (but Russia had some 2,5 times the population).

Pretty much results in a "Russian Century".
Like I said - the sky is the limit

BTW - Putin is a Leningrad boy - there will be no moving of the capital to Moscow.
* - like not firing at Opon's delegation, but maybe walking out and personaly receiving the petition instead

 

[Atarlost]

So, with the Napoleonic Wars on pause and the US and Russia establishing diplomatic relations with downtimers, who will fall into what camp and what do the next few years (or decades) look like?

I'm not sure there really are camps. In the scramble to rebuild supply chains the US and Russia may choose to cooperate at least in the short term. Something along the lines of "You build up to replace Taiwanese computer manufacture for us and we'll build up to replace Chinese pharmochemistry for you." Optimistically it might halve the time to restore the supply chains over each nation seeking autarchy individually and it reduces the chances of a nuclear exchange dramatically. And everyone will want to be optimistic because being pessimistic civic order breaks down when something critically important isn't back in production before it needs replacing.

I think there would be a lot of lines drawn on maps that both superpowers will stick to for decades. Both need uranium. Where's it found outside their territories and Europe? Split them in half based on which nation they're closer to. Both need rare earths. Same deal. Neither is going to say no to the remainder of the world's oil reserves even if they don't actually need them. Again, there's a line. I think the mid-east has more than half so the US is going to wind up with some claim there even after dibsing Mexico and Venuzuela. Then they're going to conquer or otherwise hegemonize everything within those lines. That's going to take a while. Only after they've finished with that will they start serious proxy wars.

The other issue is disease. We have a couple centuries of seasonal flu variants. A lot of people will die. It may not be as bad as the 1918 influenza, but it'll be pretty bad and it might topple some European nations. For non-European nations it kind of won't matter because the uptimers are moving in anyways, but as with the colonization of the Americas there will be fewer people to object.

 

[Buba]

‘2011 US And Russia To 1811’.

The two rule the world.
However, both suffer economic collapse. E.g. in Russia card payments at stores (mostly) do not work, as these are processed by VISA and Mastercard, and there is no web connection between Russian and US servers ...

I expect the serfs in the lands between Russia's western 2011 and 1811 borders to be freed 50 years ahead of schedule. Same in the Caucasus. Here Russia gains untapped Baku oilfields.

And Montreal - as in all USA ISOT scenarios - is wiped out by the water released by the half-gone dams.

 

[Skallagrim]

Putin knows what NOT to do, what to do*

like not firing at Opon's delegation, but maybe walking out and personaly receiving the petition instead

It's truly amazing how often things go wrong for monarchs because they take shit advice. It was the same with Louis XVI, who ctually loved the people. The uprisings preceding the revolution had the people shouting "Vive le Roi!" -- and he wanted to go out and meet them, even promise them his full support. Had he done it, any revolution (if it still happened) would be anti-aristocatic and pro-monarchical.

However, both suffer economic collapse. E.g. in Russia card payments at stores (mostly) do not work, as these are processed by VISA and Mastercard, and there is no web connection between Russian and US servers ...

Eh, there will be obvious issues, but the very nature of the crisis actually renders such points moot very quickly. Russia and the USA both have the ability to produce enormous amounts of food, but the dramatically altered situation means a lot of things will need to be restructured. Both countries will go to war economy mode, which will provide full employment. Obviously, that doesn't mean growth in real terms, but in 2011, the world is still reeling from the 2008 crisis. For the ISOTed powers, that's no longer the case. Basically, the ISOT ends the crisis the same way that World War II ended the Depression for the USA.

(And for both the USA and Russia, once they're through the crisis years, an economic miracle awaits as they have a free hand to exploit their superior positions. Again, somewhat like the USA post-war, except on steroids. And this time, Russia gets the full benefits, too, because they haven't just suffered years of total war....)