Alternate History Ideas and Discussion

[Zyobot]

Probably more of a "Fandom" scenario than a real-world one, but: ‘Transformers Arrive On Earth In 2020’.

You know, like they did in the Michael Bay movies, except thirteen years later and someone other than Sam Witwicky to help them out this time.

 

[Bassoe]

'AHC: Less Nukes, More Chemical and Biological Weapons'.

Reagan's star wars is less of a boondoggle and the US gets an actually semi-viable shield against ICBMs, motivating their rivals to go for alternative WMDs to maintain MAD deterrence.

 

[Zyobot]

Change of gears here, but since it interests me: ‘Kievan Rus Without The Mongol Invasions’.

 

[Circle of Willis]

Change of gears here, but since it interests me: ‘Kievan Rus Without The Mongol Invasions’.

Kiev itself was already in decline, having been sacked by a coalition led by Vladimir-Suzdal almost 80 years before the Mongols put it to the torch and never recovering. Without the Mongols bulldozing the Rus' in general, I suspect you'd have the Russian lands be split along three well-balanced lines: Novgorod continuing to dominate the northwest and butting heads with the Scandinavians and Livonian/Teutonic Knights, Vladimir-Suzdal dominating the northeast (subordinating smaller principalities like Ryazan) like a weaker Muscovy, and Galicia-Volhynia taking Kiev itself & dominating the south.

The last of these was probably the strongest Russian principality overall by the time of the Mongol invasion IRL and also the friendliest to Catholicism, so Idk, maybe a Catholic super-proto-Ukraine could be in the cards. It would certainly help if the non-Mongol-devastated Poland gets united early by Henry the Pious and ends up being so preoccupied with holding Henry's native Silesia and Lubusz-Land against rivals in the HRE/Bohemia that it never gets the chance to expand much eastward, which would relieve some pressure on their western flank where the Poles had been smacking them around even before the Mongols rolled over both. They'd still have to worry about Hungary, rival Russians and possibly the Lithuanians though, assuming the Teutons don't take care of that last issue for them.

 

[Buba]

IMO Polish expansion into Ruthenia was an accident. And disastrous for Poland, at that.
But bck to Kiev - IMO no Mongol battering means:
- Polish-Ruthenian (oh, how I miss the distinction between Rus and Russia the English lacks) border stays as is; Lublin taken by Halitch for a generation or two, or Khilm/Peremyshl going the other way in same manner, but the Curzon Line remains in place in the general;
- indeed, three or even four states should emerge - personally I do not see Novgorod as that expansive (too much like HBC and not like EIC), while the upper Dnepr and Dvina basins could coalesce into state no.4 around Smolensk or Vitebsk;
- no Lithuanian expansion;
- the Polovtsy/Kiptchak/Kumans (they sure have a lot of names ... ) may Christianise and even Rutheniase; although this might not change much on the border

 

[ATP]

IMO Polish expansion into Ruthenia was an accident. And disastrous for Poland, at that.
But bck to Kiev - IMO no Mongol battering means:
- Polish-Ruthenian (oh, how I miss the distinction between Rus and Russia the English lacks) border stays as is; Lublin taken by Halitch for a generation or two, or Khilm/Peremyshl going the other way in same manner, but the Curzon Line remains in place in the general;
- indeed, three or even four states should emerge - personally I do not see Novgorod as that expansive (too much like HBC and not like EIC), while the upper Dnepr and Dvina basins could coalesce into state no.4 around Smolensk or Vitebsk;
- no Lithuanian expansion;
- the Polovtsy/Kiptchak/Kumans (they sure have a lot of names ... ) may Christianise and even Rutheniase; although this might not change much on the border

There was also hungarian pagan steppe semi-state there- but in OTL they decided to fight mongols and were wiped out.
But,also in OTL,hungarian King send envoys to them in 1237 - /which was too late/ - here they could made alliance,those hungarians could become catholics - and made Hungary even stronger.
Which,paradoxally,is good for Poland - they would fight ruthenians and Kumans,not poles.
Which mean - no pressure from Hungary,less pressure from ruthenians.

All could happened,if Czynghis decide to invade India,not Europe,which was considered.

 

[Zyobot]

More of an unusual one now: ‘Mercantile Russia’.

Avoiding Communism would make a good start, though I’d say we need a POD that takes effect centuries earlier to “bake” a spirit of trade and commerce into the Russian psyche and culture in its formative years (as is already the case in OTL America).

 

[Batrix2070]

More of an unusual one now: ‘Mercantile Russia’.

Avoiding Communism would make a good start, though I’d say we need a POD that takes effect centuries earlier to “bake” a spirit of trade and commerce into the Russian psyche and culture in its formative years (as is already the case in OTL America).

Novgorod unites Russia instead of Moscow. Moscow, for example, gets a good thrashing before it conquers Novgorod.
Another possibility is to keep Novgorod in the Polish sphere of influence for a longer period of time by which Poland would be forced to knock down and integrate Moscow under Jagiellonian rule.

The last possibility is to simply put Jagiellon on the Moscow throne while Lithuania conquered Ruthenia.

 

[VictortheMonarch]

What if the Muslims didn't betray the Byzantine's and invaded into Persia and india?

 

[Buba]

keep Novgorod in the Polish sphere of influence

Novgorod never had been in a Polish sphere of influence - it was in the LITHUANIAN sphere.

 

[Batrix2070]

Novgorod never had been in a Polish sphere of influence - it was in the LITHUANIAN sphere.

He was but for a short time, it was shortly after the Battle of Grundwald.

 

[ATP]

Novgorod unites Russia instead of Moscow. Moscow, for example, gets a good thrashing before it conquers Novgorod.
Another possibility is to keep Novgorod in the Polish sphere of influence for a longer period of time by which Poland would be forced to knock down and integrate Moscow under Jagiellonian rule.

The last possibility is to simply put Jagiellon on the Moscow throne while Lithuania conquered Ruthenia.

Indeed.In 1478 they agree to be our vassals for protection,and we even have money for war - nut our ruler choosed to hire 12.000 mercaneries and send them...to fight for Silesia with Hungarians.

If he was smarter,it would be enough to smash moscovites.

Novgorod never had been in a Polish sphere of influence - it was in the LITHUANIAN sphere.

Which mean polish sphere.We were union.

 

[Buba]

Which mean polish sphere.We were union.

Don't confuse the pre- and post-1569 situations.
And even pre Lublin Union Poland did not give a shit (rightly so) about Lithuania's problems with Muscovy.

 

[Skallagrim]

More of an unusual one now: ‘Mercantile Russia’.

I think that even a "Novgorod wins" type scenario isn't sufficient by itself. The previous "no Mongols" premise of yours actually makes for a better POD, since the outline suggested by @Circle of Willis is also the one I'd endorse, in that case.

Galicia-Volhynia becoming the nain successor to Kievan Rus, and competing with regional (*Russian) rivals and external threats at the same time, is a good set-up. None of the parties involved are Muscovy, which helps, and there's also no legacy of "Boyarism" to foster rule-through-thuggery.

Long term, I think the trade networks inevitably link up, and Kiev (still/again the foremost city of all Rus) gains a loosely hegemonic position over its peers. As such, "Rus" becomes a confederal league, dominated by trade cities that control the main rivers going in different directions and (I expect) the canals that they'll dig between them.

This stare never expands all that much, and becomes vaguely like a HRE of the East. It has no sprawling labd empire, but it controls a series of major land routes. Because OTL's "wild fields" are coverded within its heartland, this long-unsafe (in OTL) region is soon tranquil and stable. This makes the "Northern land route" for East-West trade more attractive, and hence more profitable.

The merchant-princes of Rus will find it all splendid. OTL's Muscovite despotism would be alien to them.

 

[Zyobot]

Thanks for replying.

Couple of items for @Skallagrim, since I'll be quite busy throughout the day:

Long term, I think the trade networks inevitably link up, and Kiev (still/again the foremost city of all Rus) gains a loosely hegemonic position over its peers. As such, "Rus" becomes a confederal league, dominated by trade cities that control the main rivers going in different directions and (I expect) the canals that they'll dig between them.

This stare never expands all that much, and becomes vaguely like a HRE of the East.

Hmm...

Sounds to me like a cross between the Hanseatic League and actual HRE, albeit with "East Slavic" characteristics and ethnic groups instead.

All in all, not bad for the time being, though aside from the various rivers and canals they dig, there are times when I wonder about sea access (such as the Baltic or Black Sea) that Rus's merchants can ferry their cargo across.

Much less access to the oceans, which is how OTL's greatest trade empires (namely, the Anglos and Dutchies) extended their commercial reach far and wide. Heck, even with OTL Russia having access to the Pacific seaboard via Siberia, their navy and merchant marine aren't (and as far as I'm aware, have never been) terribly impressive — which makes it difficult for me to see Rus faring any better, given their lack of of a sprawling land empire.

It has no sprawling labd empire, but it controls a series of major land routes. Because OTL's "wild fields" are coverded within its heartland, this long-unsafe (in OTL) region is soon tranquil and stable. This makes the "Northern land route" for East-West trade more attractive, and hence more profitable.

The merchant-princes of Rus will find it all splendid. OTL's Muscovite despotism would be alien to them.

Matches up with both your decentralist ideals and my mercantile leanings well enough, at least in principle.

Having said that, it'd have been fun if Rus one day became something of an ATL "Counter-America", both in the sense of being frontier land on the periphery where the locals have an irrepressible "entrepreneurial spirit" and in the sense of becoming the young, vitalistic superpower that sweeps aside its decrepit rivals and becomes hegemon of the West (albeit from the eastern extremity instead of the far-flung western one). Lots of "macro-historical" implications to that, as well, if you'd still like to discuss that some time.

 

[Buba]

Result of Yom Kippur War:
- a Suez Canal Zone - separating Israel and Egypt - under UN control is created;
- the canal is reopened and money from dues goes to Egypt;

Could such a situation continue to this day?

 

[Agent23]

IMO Polish expansion into Ruthenia was an accident. And disastrous for Poland, at that.
But bck to Kiev - IMO no Mongol battering means:
- Polish-Ruthenian (oh, how I miss the distinction between Rus and Russia the English lacks) border stays as is; Lublin taken by Halitch

It is more perspective, and we do not have a different term for 'Rus' and Russians ourselves, this Ruthenia thing stinks of westerners not being able to pronounce it.
I mean, there is a reason why Mute is used as an ethnonym for Kraut.
And if you look at people like Bohdan Khmelnytsky, well he saw himself as the rightful ruler of the Rus, nowhere was he mentioning Ruthenians, IIRC.

Anyways, me trying not to start a flame war, time to write some actual ideas.

1. Bulgarians manage to evade the disastrous degradation in relations with Byzantium in the late 10th century, we manage to Christianize and assimilate the Serbian, Zetan and other Slavic tribes on the Balkans while holding to and expanding our positions north of the Danube.

Byzantium is far less inclined to to give the early Rus what they want and even if they come around we beat the shit out of Sviatoslav when/if he drags his ass, as he put it, "away from the mosquito infested bog that is Kiev and closer to true civilization" , and we gradually expand to the North-East and Christianize the Slavic tribes that would have made up Kievan Rus.
Bonus points if we eventually find a way to assimilate the other Bulgaria and resist better the attacks of the Mongols.

This would of course require some type of very turbulent situation in Byzantium for about 100 years, preferably them being distracted by the Arabs/other Turkic tribes.

 

[Buba]

@Agent23
Maybe for clarity specify that these are ideas unrelated with "no Mongols". It may had been only me, but I was confused by the timeskip

Wow, a Greater Bulgaria from the Aegean to the Volga!

 

[Agent23]

@Agent23
Maybe for clarity specify that these are ideas unrelated with "no Mongols". It may had been only me, but I was confused by the timeskip

Nah, I don't want them totally airbrushed, they will be useful in demolishing everything else in central Asia for us to go in and take later.

Wow, a Greater Bulgaria from the Aegean to Vladivostok!

Fixed it for ya.
Oh, and for the record, I just view it as reclamation of rightful ancient Bulgar ancestral lands.

 

[Circle of Willis]

'AHC: Someone other than Athens, Sparta or Thebes becomes the dominant Ancient Greek polis.'