AI/Automation Megathread

So, the employers who had been paying those wages, aren't spending that money on wages anymore. What do they then do with that money?
By some crazy coincidence, the big tech moguls that are big on automation and make their money with minimal employees also happen to also be the ones pushing ultra-woke stuff on the population, even when it loses money, like Amazon's home-brewed LoTR or Google massively massaging search results.

Interesting how much those things tend to align.
 
By some crazy coincidence, the big tech moguls that are big on automation and make their money with minimal employees also happen to also be the ones pushing ultra-woke stuff on the population, even when it loses money, like Amazon's home-brewed LoTR or Google massively massaging search results.

Interesting how much those things tend to align.
Yes and no. That depends on your definition of 'woke'. If it is the GOP propaganda version... then you'll find some examples but not a lot of them. If it's the 'breakdown of traditional stereotypes and role molds', then a lot of them are 'woke' in that regard...
 
Ideally either lower prices or reinvest in the company, realistically put the money in an off shore account.

So, they're either paying other people to do other things, or putting the money in a bank, which then gives out money in the form of loans to other people doing business.

So somebody is getting paid for something regardless.
 
So, they're either paying other people to do other things, or putting the money in a bank, which then gives out money in the form of loans to other people doing business.

So somebody is getting paid for something regardless.
So using your own logic, I'm sure you'll agree that there's absolutely nothing bad about the government taxing people into oblivion and blowing the money on social awareness and welfare programs, because they be paying other people to do other things, and those people will be putting the money in a bank.

And the corrupt businessman who swindles millions of elderly people out of their life savings and pensions they worked their whole lives to retire on, he gets the A-OK from you because the swindler will either be paying other people to do other things, or putting the money in a bank, right?
 
Apparently, so long as they aren't destroying the money they obtain, it's fine. Though even then, destroying money increases its scarcity and increases the value of the remaining pool of funds just a bit. I guess no matter what you do with money it's good for the economy. Isn't this Economics a rigorous science?
 
Apparently, so long as they aren't destroying the money they obtain, it's fine. Though even then, destroying money increases its scarcity and increases the value of the remaining pool of funds just a bit. I guess no matter what you do with money it's good for the economy. Isn't this Economics a rigorous science?
Economics is a rather tiered skill. At the rudimentary level people think it's about money, people with only basic knowledge think it's all about wages and budgeting and spending. Once you get to a deeper more advanced level you come to realize money is basically just a relatively unimportant placeholder and real economics is about the continuous flow of work, goods, and services and how they move from one person to another.

All of those things flowing towards only a few super-rich and powerful people is a very bad scenario. Unfortunately through a range of factors, one of them automation, we're living in that bad scenario now.
 
So using your own logic, I'm sure you'll agree that there's absolutely nothing bad about the government taxing people into oblivion and blowing the money on social awareness and welfare programs, because they be paying other people to do other things, and those people will be putting the money in a bank.

And the corrupt businessman who swindles millions of elderly people out of their life savings and pensions they worked their whole lives to retire on, he gets the A-OK from you because the swindler will either be paying other people to do other things, or putting the money in a bank, right?

Flanderize harder.

The difference between 'these wages functionally no longer exist' and 'what is a detailed position to hold on the morality of welfare, fraud, and theft' are blatantly not the same issue.

People have been trying to stir up panic for years about 'AI will make work obsolete.' It has never materialized, and it will never materialize, because the money that would have been used to pay for X work, will instead ultimately be used to pay for Y work. Unless someone literally buries it in a hole in the ground or similar nonsense.

Trying to conflate that economic fact with fraud, theft, and welfare (which literally pays people for nothing), is beyond merely bad-faith argumentation, into the realm of outright smearing.

I'd like an apology.
 
Flanderize harder.

The difference between 'these wages functionally no longer exist' and 'what is a detailed position to hold on the morality of welfare, fraud, and theft' are blatantly not the same issue.
First, that's not remotely what Flanderize means. Second, it's exactly the same issue. Wealth transfers from one group to another with all attendant knock-on effects as regards how people spend and react to this transfer, the only difference being automation makes the ultra-rich grow richer while welfare makes the poor able to keep eating. It's not about morality, it's about economics, switching it to trying to complain about morality is just a goalpost move on your part to ignore the actual point. Do massive welfare programs not have an economic effect because welfare recipients put the money in the bank or spend it? Do embezzlement schemes not damage the economy because the embezzler will spend the money or bank it? Of course not, by the standard you're using absolutely nothing, ever, can harm the economy because no matter what the person who gets the money will spend it or put it in a bank. Heck, your BS about how the economy will be hurt by putting money in a hole is an argument for "Money Printing Machine Go Brr."

People have been trying to stir up panic for years about 'AI will make work obsolete.' It has never materialized, and it will never materialize, because the money that would have been used to pay for X work, will instead ultimately be used to pay for Y work. Unless someone literally buries it in a hole in the ground or similar nonsense.
I'm not sure what's sadder, the fact that you have this poor of an understanding of how economics actually works, or the fact that @Robovski literally pointed out how the exact fallacy you just used actually works two posts above and you failed to bother to read the thread and made the fallacious argument anyway.

As for people having known for years, yes, we've been watching things crater for years and the ongoing negative effects have been slowly degrading things for years while we watch in real time. You clearly haven't actually read the thread and are just kneejerking, else you would have addressed the charts and studies upthread showing that we're visibly suffering the effects right now and can see how jobs are being permanently lost right now. But you didn't, you just proclaimed your opinion as fact (totally unsupported of course) and ignored all the concrete evidence to the contrary.

People knew Bernie Madoff was engaged in fraud and provided multiple warnings with detailed proof years before the 2008 meltdown. The fact that these people were right and figured it out years in advance... didn't mean there was no actual economic meltdown coming. Things would have gone much, much better if we'd actually listened to them and done something about Bernie before he destroyed the nation's economy and set it back decades.

People warned that the levees on New Orleans weren't up to stopping a real hurricane long before Katrina hit, that didn't mean the levees held. If we'd listened and fixed the levees it would have saved many lives and millions in damage.

Experts recognizing a disaster before it happens is not evidence that there's no actual disaster coming, that's completely bats.

Trying to conflate that economic fact with fraud, theft, and welfare (which literally pays people for nothing), is beyond merely bad-faith argumentation, into the realm of outright smearing.

I'd like an apology.
Every time we have this debate, you drum up an excuse to be morally outraged and run away when you can't support your claims. I'm sorry to see you appear to be laying the groundwork for your retreat already.
 
Every time we have this debate, you drum up an excuse to be morally outraged and run away when you can't support your claims. I'm sorry to see you appear to be laying the groundwork for your retreat already.

You've literally fabricated an entire position for me in this post, and assumed a whole bunch of things on my part besides.

As an example, I've read every post on this thread.


But I'm not going to argue with you. There's no point in trying to argue with you. Why do I know this? Because on the thread where we were discussing affordability of meals, I and another person walked you, step by step, through the process of how to cook affordable meals in a timely fashion, including directly linking to the prices of the various ingredients involved, and how I'd done such things before myself.

And your response was to just point-blank insist it could not be done, even with the evidence right in front of your face.

I'm not going to waste my time trying to convince you of something, because I know that once you make up your mind, no amount of evidence is going to change it.

I'd hoped to engage with someone else on this thread, but I'm not wasting my time trying to argue with you.
 
You've literally fabricated an entire position for me in this post, and assumed a whole bunch of things on my part besides.

As an example, I've read every post on this thread.
You realize that makes you look worse? You claim to have read ample evidence including things directly disputing your (always unsupported of course) claims. You're basically admitting you're arguing in bad faith and ignoring evidence you can't refute.

But I'm not going to argue with you. There's no point in trying to argue with you. Why do I know this? Because on the thread where we were discussing affordability of meals, I and another person walked you, step by step, through the process of how to cook affordable meals in a timely fashion, including directly linking to the prices of the various ingredients involved, and how I'd done such things before myself.

And your response was to just point-blank insist it could not be done, even with the evidence right in front of your face.

I'm not going to waste my time trying to convince you of something, because I know that once you make up your mind, no amount of evidence is going to change it.

I'd hoped to engage with someone else on this thread, but I'm not wasting my time trying to argue with you.
Ah yes, that wonderful thread where you and your allies came up with a plan that relied on getting 8 meals out of a single box of Hamburger Helper and surviving on 90 Calories per meal. So logical, clearly any human can survive on the same amount of food expected to feed a housecat. Oh, or where I got arguments that a poor person could build their own houses out of scrap on land they didn't own, and simply cultivate multiple acres of land they didn't own, with a hoe I suppose since urban poor don't generally own tractors, and thus the poor could grow all the food they needed. And of course, you had your usual tactic of requiring a person to live in multiple cities at once so they could access the farmer's markets of California and the Mass Transit of New York at the same time in order to get easy transport and access to fresh foods that no single person actually has. Yeah, that was some great argumentation you had there.

As for me never changing my mind... I have admitted I was wrong and retracted my statements on these very boards. I consider it a point of pride that I will change my mind when presented proof. I have done so
Many
Many
Many
Many
Many
Many
Times.
I have even retracted claims I made to you personally when you made a convincing rebuttal. You lie and you slander me with your lies. Of course, I don't expect you to man up and apologize, as I would in that situation.

Getting back on topic and away from me being slandered by LordsFire as he runs away, MIT did another study analyzing exactly how many jobs have been lost to automation.


Between 1990 and 2007, the increase in robots (about one per thousand workers) reduced the average employment-to-population ratio in a zone by 0.39 percentage points, and average wages by 0.77%, compared to commuting zones with no exposure to robots, they found. This implies that adding one robot to an area reduces employment in that area by about six workers.

Also interesting notes on new jobs, the displaced workers tend to find lower-wage jobs and compete with less affluent workers, they don't learn to code and don't find new work in the industry.

Some areas are most affected by the mixed impact of robots. “In the U.S., especially in the industrial heartland, we find that the displacement effect is large,” he said. “When those jobs disappear, those workers go and take other jobs from lower wage workers. It has a negative effect, and demand goes down for some of the retail jobs and other service jobs.”
 
NBER Study: 70% of Wage Stagnation due to robots
A study performed by the NBER concludes that between 50 and 70% of the wage decline we've seen over the last few decades is a direct result of automation displacing workers. The other 30-50% is largely the result of offshoring jobs. It's extremely math heavy but goes into a great deal of detail about their methodology and how they got these results. This is the first study I've found that both acknowledges that both automation and globalism have cost jobs at the same time and also does a detailed breakdown to determine which is responsible for which losses, with automation having a significant edge but not being responsible for everything.

It also explores how changes in education differentials between 1980 and 2016 were caused by automation, much to the detriment of US education. It's interesting how many of the studies are coming back to everything going to pot as a result of automation in the late 70s/early 80s. Every study doesn't ping the exact same year but they all swing back to that general period when computers and automation really started to take off.

 
So, the employers who had been paying those wages, aren't spending that money on wages anymore. What do they then do with that money?
Keep it and hoard it. At that point, the economy consists of two classes, idle rich robotics company executives and everyone else whose labor is now of no economic value, robots could perform equivalent labor for less. The idle rich robotics company executives quickly buy up all assets owned by everyone else since they've got no other source of money for immediate necessities like food, then everyone else has a choice between:
  • Starving to death in peaceful accordance with the Non-Aggression Principle.
  • Butlerian Jihad. Against as many of these or their descendants as entirely autonomous supply chains and manufacturing can make. A number only theoretically limited by the amount of ore in the earth's crust.
 
Keep it and hoard it. At that point, the economy consists of two classes, idle rich robotics company executives and everyone else whose labor is now of no economic value, robots could perform equivalent labor for less. The idle rich robotics company executives quickly buy up all assets owned by everyone else since they've got no other source of money for immediate necessities like food, then everyone else has a choice between:
  • Starving to death in peaceful accordance with the Non-Aggression Principle.
  • Butlerian Jihad. Against as many of these or their descendants as entirely autonomous supply chains and manufacturing can make. A number only theoretically limited by the amount of ore in the earth's crust.
The problem with a Butlerian Jihad is that the one from the Dune books was conducted solely against the machines by the whole of humanity, who had collectively decided that they were all masochists who wanted to be able to chose a life of suffering (I know I'm being hyperbolic here, but I don't respect Herbert's writing enough to care); Frank Herbert never conceived it as a rebellion against human oligarchs who no longer had a use for the labor of the plebs. If he had, he would have probably written it so that the oligarchs won; because that's pretty much how the Butlerian Jihad worked out for them in Dune. The oligarchs came out ahead, while everyone else was left to live lives of suffering.
 
Depends if we're talking about Frank Herbert's actual canon or his son's cashgrab where it was space!skynet. Thing is, current oligarchs and tyrants in general or the Great Houses of Dune require human servants and said servants have two potential defenses.

One, refuse to work until their demands are met. Two, threats of violent revolt.

Sufficiently advanced automation technologies remove both of those. Strikes become ineffective if human labor had no value anyway since machines were doing all the work and violence is ineffective against entirely mechanical security. The majority of a society can be tyrannized on a scale henceforth unprecedented in history and still be unable to do anything about it when the ruling class maintains their position with an unstoppable and mindlessly loyal robotic monopoly of force. Or the rulers can just order their machines to kill everyone who isn't them and perform whatever labor they require themselves, look at all their rhetoric and the facts about resources necessary for maintaining a first world quality of life, they absolutely have the motive to do so if they ever acquired the means.

Essentially Dune's mistake was it wasn't cynical enough, the Harkonnens and Paul and Leto II's fan clubs at their most genocidal still needed to spare some humans besides themselves or they'd have nobody to enslave and have to do their own work. Actual automation-crats wouldn't have that limitation.

Once the technology exists, laws can't realistically be expected to control it since the monopoly of force is entirely in the hands of the guys with the killbot army, people can pass all the "you're legally obligated to share the bounty of your robotic infrastructure with us" laws they like, they'll have no power to enforce them. The only solutions are:
  • Don't invent it in the first place. Punish attempting to invent it with preemptive MAD deterrence, since if someone gets it, they'll be able to destroy you, preemptively stopping anyone from getting it by every means available is an absolute necessity.
  • Arms race/cold war détente between two or more powers equipped with Total Automation technologies, either one tries to deploy von neumann killbot armies and set themselves up as a god-king, their rivals do the same and we get a firsthand demonstration of the fermi paradox as the rival swarms go Total Annihilation on each other until the sun goes red giant and consumes the earth with humanity going extinct in the crossfire during the first hours of the war. And anyone who doesn't have Total Automation technologies is in the same state as a non-nuclear-armed nation during the cold war, cannon fodder for proxy wars at best, raw materials at worst.
  • Transhumanism-powered race-to-the-botton to try and maintain "human" relevance. Machine "employees" can work 24/7 so that's what human workers have to compete against? Try servitorization, brain chips, drugs, etc and try to keep up.
  • Transhumanism apocalypse. Someone, realizing they're otherwise doomed to enslavement or eradication, decides to take the corporatocracy with them by creating Khan Noonien Singh, Peter Watts abominations or something of the general sort, paranoid enough to recognize the threat, aggressive enough to immediately violently challenge it and superhumanly capable enough in whatever manner to win the resulting conflict against everything which wasn't them they'd instigate.
 
Depends if we're talking about Frank Herbert's actual canon or his son's cashgrab where it was space!skynet. Thing is, current oligarchs and tyrants in general or the Great Houses of Dune require human servants and said servants have two potential defenses.

One, refuse to work until their demands are met. Two, threats of violent revolt.

Sufficiently advanced automation technologies remove both of those. Strikes become ineffective if human labor had no value anyway since machines were doing all the work and violence is ineffective against entirely mechanical security. The majority of a society can be tyrannized on a scale henceforth unprecedented in history and still be unable to do anything about it when the ruling class maintains their position with an unstoppable and mindlessly loyal robotic monopoly of force. Or the rulers can just order their machines to kill everyone who isn't them and perform whatever labor they require themselves, look at all their rhetoric and the facts about resources necessary for maintaining a first world quality of life, they absolutely have the motive to do so if they ever acquired the means.

Essentially Dune's mistake was it wasn't cynical enough, the Harkonnens and Paul and Leto II's fan clubs at their most genocidal still needed to spare some humans besides themselves or they'd have nobody to enslave and have to do their own work. Actual automation-crats wouldn't have that limitation.

Once the technology exists, laws can't realistically be expected to control it since the monopoly of force is entirely in the hands of the guys with the killbot army, people can pass all the "you're legally obligated to share the bounty of your robotic infrastructure with us" laws they like, they'll have no power to enforce them. The only solutions are:
  • Don't invent it in the first place. Punish attempting to invent it with preemptive MAD deterrence, since if someone gets it, they'll be able to destroy you, preemptively stopping anyone from getting it by every means available is an absolute necessity.
  • Arms race/cold war détente between two or more powers equipped with Total Automation technologies, either one tries to deploy von neumann killbot armies and set themselves up as a god-king, their rivals do the same and we get a firsthand demonstration of the fermi paradox as the rival swarms go Total Annihilation on each other until the sun goes red giant and consumes the earth with humanity going extinct in the crossfire during the first hours of the war. And anyone who doesn't have Total Automation technologies is in the same state as a non-nuclear-armed nation during the cold war, cannon fodder for proxy wars at best, raw materials at worst.
  • Transhumanism-powered race-to-the-botton to try and maintain "human" relevance. Machine "employees" can work 24/7 so that's what human workers have to compete against? Try servitorization, brain chips, drugs, etc and try to keep up.
  • Transhumanism apocalypse. Someone, realizing they're otherwise doomed to enslavement or eradication, decides to take the corporatocracy with them by creating Khan Noonien Singh, Peter Watts abominations or something of the general sort, paranoid enough to recognize the threat, aggressive enough to immediately violently challenge it and superhumanly capable enough in whatever manner to win the resulting conflict against everything which wasn't them they'd instigate.
There is one tiny little problem with your assumption: assuming that military drones would actually work when the reality has been showing that, no, when facing someone that is competent (i.e. implement battlefield ECM measures, SHORAD as organic units of platoons, hacking enemy drone links, that sort of thing), the drone has to be fitted with an AGI or be rendered useless. I mean a bunch of terrorists with minimal backing by Iran managed to outright spoof a US drone with off-the-shelf components and maybe some programming assistance from Iran. That doesn't bode well when fighting against competent nation-states.
 
There is one tiny little problem with your assumption: assuming that military drones would actually work when the reality has been showing that, no, when facing someone that is competent (i.e. implement battlefield ECM measures, SHORAD as organic units of platoons, hacking enemy drone links, that sort of thing), the drone has to be fitted with an AGI or be rendered useless. I mean a bunch of terrorists with minimal backing by Iran managed to outright spoof a US drone with off-the-shelf components and maybe some programming assistance from Iran. That doesn't bode well when fighting against competent nation-states.
Still a good idea to put a hard break on this before it gets even worse then it already is.
 
Still a good idea to put a hard break on this before it gets even worse then it already is.
The problem is history, I'm afraid. The rich have always been problematic when they have to account for everyone else below them. Hell, during the reign of Justinian the Great of Eastern Rome/Byzantium, he had to allow his tax collectors to torture and brand anyone that doesn't pay (the poor were largely exempt from this, due to the fact that it's basically taking blood from stone from them... it was the nobility and merchant class that would do everything in their power to avoid taxes) to get the rich to pay their taxes. Torture and branding.

May I remind everyone here that filibuster wasn't just a congressional thing either, it was a geopolitical thing as well, where rich people would use their wealth to hire mercenaries and topple governments... that is until the major countries put a stop to it (which they finally did in the late 1800s/early 1900s). The vast majority of these 'geopolitical filibusters' were done by rich folk...
 
Watched this on the news a few days ago, it's covering the current push to automate trucks, coincidentally eliminating a lot of jobs and targeting those who disagree with the current regime. Of course, we're getting the standard-issue cope that people "Just don't want those jobs" we always hear.

 

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