AHC: A much more populated Baltic region?

[WolfBear]

Here's an interesting AHC for you: Have a much more populated Baltic region. Specifically the territories that are now a part of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and perhaps Kaliningrad Oblast. If you will look at this EU population grid map, you'll see what I'm talking about here:

The Baltic region simply doesn't have all that many people nowadays, with the exception of a few major cities. Certainly not in comparison to a lot of the rest of Europe. What would it take to change this? One possible scenario that I've flirted with is avoiding the 1940 Fall of France but still having the Soviet Union conquer the Baltic countries. Then, in the 1980s, due to the 1910s-1920s male cohorts not being decimated by World War II (at least not anywhere near as much as in real life, and possibly not at all depending on events), someone other than Gorbachev comes to power in the Soviet Union and turns the entire Baltic region into a special economic zone along the lines of China's Shenzhen, which saw its population absolutely explode during the last half a century. Anyway, does this sound realistic enough? Without World War II's extremely demographic devastation, the East Slavic lands should also have many more people to spare, which in turn also means them having many more people to export to other SSRs.

 

[WolfBear]

@stevep @History Learner @Skallagrim @Zyobot @raharris1973 Any ideas in regards to this?

 

[stevep]

I wonder if Sweden had won the Great Northern War and really pushed Russia back from the Baltic, possibly prompting the overthrow of Czar Peter - who obviously doesn't become known as 'the Great' here - and prompting a period of succession wars in Russia. Although its unlikely that Russia could be kept divided and weak for a prolonged period.

Especially if this also saw Denmark badly mauled, possibly losing Norway and permanently reduced as a threat to Sweden then the latter pretty much dominates the Baltic. Especially with Poland on the decline at this stage and no strong German state. True other powers might oppose such Swedish domination because of the economic importance of the region, especially possibly in naval stores,but during the War of the Spanish succession their too busy reigning in Louis XIV.

This could make the region a lot more peaceful and being part of a large trading empire, with connections to most of Europe you could see a substantial increase in population. Possibly even expanding eastwards a bit if Russia is weak enough long enough.

Of course Swedish domination is likely to be broken at some point, or you see internal unrest inside the country which would give other powers a chance to intervene. Possibly some Baltic state emerges that is strong enough to maintain a good level of independence and its in a good position to act as a trading interface between Russia and the rest of the world. Especially if Russia never gets its own port on the Baltic.

 

[sillygoose]

Seems like the obvious option would be no WW2 and massive depopulation of those regions. Lots of fighting there and lots counter insurgency/depopulation efforts (mass deportation to Siberia) and colonization by the Russians after the fact.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_states_under_Soviet_rule_(1944%E2%80%931991)#Sovietization

However the biggest decline in birthrate in the modern era is the end of the USSR, the economic collapse of the 1990s, and then the emigration of so many ambitious young people away from their home countries. Birth rates halved as a result. Pretty similar story for the entire ex-Soviet bloc. So a continuing USSR and inability for the younger generations to emigrate out of the country would be a big help if you want a post-WW2 solution.

Otherwise no WW1 would be a big help, as a surviving Russian empire would see it as one of the most developed areas of the empire and consequentially that would facilitate a large population increase over the 20th century.

 

[WolfBear]

Otherwise no WW1 would be a big help, as a surviving Russian empire would see it as one of the most developed areas of the empire and consequentially that would facilitate a large population increase over the 20th century.

Even as it was, a lot of Slavs, especially Russians, moved to Latvia and Estonia in the post-WWII decades in order to help rebuild those places and also because the quality of life was possibly better there. My mom has a maternal aunt who moved to Tallinn in her youth and still lives there right now if she has not passed away already. (She would be 86 right now; she was still alive a couple of years ago, but I'm not sure about right now.)

 

[WolfBear]

Interestingly enough, in real life, if it wasn't for the Russians and others, then Latvia's population would have peaked back in 1935!

 

[Hlaalu Agent]

Keep the Baltic Germans around, have more Germans come in and be assimilated by the Balters, make sure what the Soviets did to the natives doesn't happen and they won't have that loss of birth rate from the collapse of the Soviets, and then make sure there is still substantial Russian and other Slavic immigration...

So, basically, take what everyone else has said, combine those insights and add more Germans.

 

[WolfBear]

Keep the Baltic Germans around, have more Germans come in and be assimilated by the Balters, make sure what the Soviets did to the natives doesn't happen and they won't have that loss of birth rate from the collapse of the Soviets, and then make sure there is still substantial Russian and other Slavic immigration...

So, basically, take what everyone else has said, combine those insights and add more Germans.

I doubt that the Balts would be so eager to voluntarily invite so many Eastern Slavs into their countries, though! In real life, they weren't asked!

 

[Hlaalu Agent]

I doubt that the Balts would be so eager to voluntarily invite so many Eastern Slavs into their countries, though! In real life, they weren't asked!

They probably wouldn't, but a reasonable trickle still might work. It all depends on who is running the show. Balters, or Russians, probably. Latvians or Estonians (or somehow Livonians), no.

 

[WolfBear]

They probably wouldn't, but a reasonable trickle still might work. It all depends on who is running the show. Balters, or Russians, probably. Latvians or Estonians (or somehow Livonians), no.

Balters are whom? Baltic Germans?

 

[Hlaalu Agent]

Balters are whom? Baltic Germans?

Yes, an alternative way of referring to them. As I recall, the Baltic Germans actually called themselves German Balters or something like that.

 

[WolfBear]

Yes, an alternative way of referring to them. As I recall, the Baltic Germans actually called themselves German Balters or something like that.

I think that the Baltic Germans would prefer German colonization of the Baltics if at all possible. Or at least Germanic colonization of the Baltics. Slavs are likely to be perceived as a potentially subversive element who will push for the reunification of this region with Russia sooner or later. Unless they're Poles, perhaps.