DocSolarisReich
Esoteric Spaceman
The longer the USN rests on her laurels, the more their history becomes less of an advantage and more of hindrance.
China A China-Free Supply Chain
- Thread starter Husky_Khan
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The longer the USN rests on her laurels, the more their history becomes less of an advantage and more of hindrance.
They are the big two.
I never said they wernt.
Meanwhile, in the real world, the PLAN has surpassed the operational combat capable hulls of the USN and it only gets worse from here.
Do not act shocked ... do not avert your eyes ... look harder
We started the " Keeping and Eye on the Long Game " over a decade and a half ago. Many of you have been loyal members of the Front Porch sin...cdrsalamander.blogspot.com
Ask @Sailor.X what it actually is. The dude was in the Navy.
Plus the PLAN has mostly brown water ships
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
Meanwhile, in the real world, the PLAN has surpassed the operational combat capable hulls of the USN and it only gets worse from here.
Do not act shocked ... do not avert your eyes ... look harder
We started the " Keeping and Eye on the Long Game " over a decade and a half ago. Many of you have been loyal members of the Front Porch sin...
Meanwhile, in the real world, the overwhelming majority of these ships are coastal or short range vessels. Very good for defending China's coast, nearly or completely useless for actually projecting power.
I've broken some of this down elsewhere; China's Navy can beat the crap out of anyone (other than the USN) trying to invade, and is basically designed for taking Taiwan, but has only very modest ability to project past the First Island Chain.
The USN could still sink the lot of it, but the gap has narrowed by quite a bit, and if the USN tried to fight in China's territorial waters, the Chinese might actually come out ahead.
We would have Air Force assets from Guam and Korea to provide support to the Navy
Airedale260
Well-known member
Unless the Chinese do something insanely stupid like try to invade Taiwan, the USN isn’t going to go toe-to-toe with them where they have a real chance of losing. They aren’t stupid. And as Zachowon said, we would have USAF assets available (though I’d add that they would be in range of PLAAF assets and air defenses on the mainland in such a case). Of course, if things are that hot it’s entirely possible the Japanese and maybe the ROK get involved -the former is a sizable naval power and the latter is no slouch, either.
Right now the Chinese have some green-water capability but are still mainly a coastal defense force. They simply can’t operate at the same level as the USN. Not that I would object to bulking the USN up somewhat but they’re still very much the big kid on the block.
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
I mean, conquering Taiwan has been the primary objective of the PLAN since what, it was formed?
They certainly want to, and they certainly think they can pull it off if the US doesn't get involved.
What do you think the odds are they'd actually try?
Very high
About China attacking:
notthebee.com
Not good. War games recently run by the US Air Force find that "We're going to lose fast."
Hey, everything is fast in the good ol' US of A. We have fast cars, fast food, and now fast defeats at the hands of the communist Chinese we enriched at the behest of our leaders and their personal greed and avarice.
notthebee.com
Yeah, I dont believe it.About China attacking:
Not good. War games recently run by the US Air Force find that "We're going to lose fast."
Hey, everything is fast in the good ol' US of A. We have fast cars, fast food, and now fast defeats at the hands of the communist Chinese we enriched at the behest of our leaders and their personal greed and avarice.
Because we won't sit there and let them do that, and it won't just be us fighting.
Taiwan can hold thier own long enough for us to get forces there.
We have navy ships and allied navy ships defending incase kf such a thing. They are our best anti missle defenses.
As much as I like the nerds in the AF, they obviously hindered what we can do in return. Also did not take into account allies.
But yes, beilive the unclassified stufd
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
About China attacking:
Not good. War games recently run by the US Air Force find that "We're going to lose fast."
Hey, everything is fast in the good ol' US of A. We have fast cars, fast food, and now fast defeats at the hands of the communist Chinese we enriched at the behest of our leaders and their personal greed and avarice.
Why yes, if the Chinese openly use WMDs and have the entirety of the strategic initiative, they'd deal serious damage to our forward-deployed forces in the area.
And, you know, provoke the US standard response policy for WMDs: Nuclear retaliation.
If we have a president who lacks the guts, things could go very, very poorly. If we don't, there goes China.
King Arts
Well-known member
China has had nukes for decades. I'm surprised they haven't increased their number to be like Russia so they can do a retalitory strike. Instead they are stuck at the tactical level they don't even have 1000 nukes. That's not a strategic threat they don't have enough nukes to wipe out humanity like we do or the Russians like how they could wipe us out if they launched them all.
I feel like I have to say, "that you know of."
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
It's strategic enough. Their retaliatory strike wouldn't end us as a nation but it's plenty able to work as a deterrent. Plus, they're probably thinking in terms of great powers instead of the cold war superalliances—there's no bonus achieved for being able to target every major city in the western hemisphere with a separate rocket.
PsihoKekec
Swashbuckling Accountant
Oh is it already that time of year when services ramp up the budget pie strife?About China attacking:
Not good. War games recently run by the US Air Force find that "We're going to lose fast."
Hey, everything is fast in the good ol' US of A. We have fast cars, fast food, and now fast defeats at the hands of the communist Chinese we enriched at the behest of our leaders and their personal greed and avarice.
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
We don't have enough nukes to depopulate the Earth. Even at the height of the Cold War, both alliances going all-out was questionable in whether or not it could have resulted in such, though it certainly would have killed billions between direct and indirect effects.
Ending us as a nation is a pretty tall order.
A brief search online shows that the Chinese are estimated to have somewhere around fifty ICBMs. That's missiles capable of actually hitting the Mainland USA, though some shorter-ranged ones can probably hit parts of Alaska.
The USA has a multi-layered ballistic missile shield system in place. Its exact capabilities are of course classified, and estimates to how effective it is are all over the place, but I've seen between 25-75% for each layer. If we take the pessimistic estimate, and assume all Chinese ICBMs launch successfully, that still ends up with ~23 getting through a 3-layered defensive shield.
23 nukes striking the US, likely almost entirely along the West coast, with some possibly targeting New York or DC (maybe one for the Panama Canal), the nation would be wounded, but far from finished. Internal turmoil and fallout might cause the nation to collapse, but it's far from a certainty.
Now, if we go with optimistic estimates for interception (75%), which I think are completely unrealistically optimistic at this stage of development, you end up with 2-3 nukes getting through, and that's not remotely close enough to take the USA out. It's just enough to piss the US off and spur the kind of rise in national unity that 9/11 briefly did, but most likely with much more enduring effects.
After either scenario, in return, China would functionally cease to exist as a nation, because the US nuclear arsenal was designed to be able to strike Russia more or less in its entirety, and China is just as easy to hit. If China is hit, it's not a question of 'will it be able to hold together,' it's a matter of there won't be enough of the Chinese military and economic infrastructure for it to be possible for them to hold together.
Now, all of this doesn't change the fact that nuclear war would be absolutely horrific and we want no part of that. This is the operational paradigm the CCP's leadership needs to keep in mind though, when they decide whether or not to push the button. If the US pushes the button in return, China loses, full stop, and as a result, the only reason they'll decide to play that game, is if they decide the US lacks the guts to push the button in return.
PsihoKekec
Swashbuckling Accountant
Of course, this is with 100% nuke explosion rate. Modern conventional munitions have 1-5% failure rate and nukes are much more complicated, with ICBM warhead being exposed to forces much worse than those of tube artillery shells. With lack of proper testing, what the nuke failure would be like for any side is anyone's guess.
There are two issues with this calculation. First is that this is 25-75% per engagement, so if defence systems are not in position, the success rate is 0%. First layer is the naval AEGIS systems in the first phase of flight, which have very narrow window of opportunity to intercept ground based missiles. Then there is heavily maligned/much praised mid course defense system which can engage the missiles before the reentry and finally Patriot systems engaging individual warheads (3-10 per missile + decoys) in the target area. So if the Chinese manage to disrupt any layer of the defense, it would be a very bad day for the USA, but the response would be much, much worse for China.
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strunkenwhite
Well-known member
This is exactly my sentiment.
Right, I don't see their arsenal as even remotely suitable for a first strike on the USA; the consequences are far too dire to nuke for any provocation less than being nuked. But they do have enough nukes to make any other power with sense not want to nuke them (including the USA), so mission accomplished.
I don't have the feeling that we disagree.
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
Looking back, I'm not sure why I quoted your post either. Maybe I misread it?
PsihoKekec
Swashbuckling Accountant
I reckon the Chinese nuclear arsenal has similar role as the French, it gives them a seat at the big boys table and is big enough that anyone who would want to go nuclear on them would think twice, while not too big, to the point where it would become a financial millstone around their neck (lesson learned from USSR).