In case you've been living under a rock, you are likely aware the Democrat Party is holding its primary to choose a candidate to run for POTUS. The field has been narrowed slightly from the >20 who were once contenders, and as of this moment seems to be limited in the minds of punditry and commentators to a 'Big Three' of Biden, Sanders and Warren with various other contenders nipping at heels in the single-digits--however, given how the Republican version of this adventure in '16 turned out, I'm unsure if I'm ready to hang my hat on the same assessment as it'd previously looked like Warren was flaming-out and Mayor Pete and Harris have both cycled through their own up-and-comer, challenge-to-Biden status.
Well, let's call it like it is. Harris was a major contender until Tulsi Gabbard took a bat to her on the national stage.
So the race still looks relatively open, and the Iowa caucuses aren't until FEBRUARY, so there's all kinds of time for upsets and October-December suprises to muss with the campaigns and polling.
That's true. And thanks to how the DNC works, it rewards people for staying in longer, since there's always a chance you can have DNC elitists hand you the golden title.
That said, the Warren-surge is real right now
, and at the moment she's jumped past Biden in Iowa's polling. Something I can't say I'm too thrilled with just because I personally dislike the lady...A
lot...But them's the breaks. Biden continues to be a somewhat-anemic and/or 'slow-and-steady' presence in the race, which phrase used depending on whether you approve of him or not, and Bernie Sanders seems to have 'capped out' on supporters (at least if you listen to the newsmen). Meanwhile, in the 'second tier' right now, Beto's gone firm on gun-control (presumably as something of a way to attract attention), Harris seems to be suffering from her reputation/past and her debate 'surge' is pretty much gone at this point, and Buttigieg seems to have a bit of a ho-hum, doldrum air about him (or, at least, folks see him that way) and that's holding him back. Then there's the third-string right now where my own softly-preferred Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard are sitting, along with Booker, Klobuchar, the remaining others...And everyone's favorite, hippy-dippy, crystal-healing soccer-auntie: Marianne Williamson.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
So...If this follows the pattern of the Republican primary of 2016, I expect Marianne Williamson to win it all.
I'll have to agree with Styxx in that it's probably an aberration in the poll numbers, but there is the very real possibility that Warren might topple Biden. Of course, after she does that, they may tear into her next. We all know that Booker has no reservations about accusing people of being racist, regardless of how much Obama cock they've taken as part of their duties to the first black president.
Anyone care to present their own rough analysis? Speak out in favor or against certain candidates? Make their own random internet-yabo predictions of how things will turn out? Present news or information relating to the campaign(s)?
Please do your part to combat the dark, psychic forces which face the US and the internet especially and try to be respectful and polite. Of course, bullying or teasing of Marianne Williamson will be met with me requesting staff to give you a thread-ban--you don't make fun of your family in public, and Williamson is America's aunt, dammit!
I'd love to!
First, you may have seen me post this map. I will do so again and go into the gory details.
What you see here is the rough general cultural divide in the USA. These are the eleven nations that make up America. To understand what these candidates are doing right now, you must understand how things were and how they are now.
Yankeedom is basically the proper liberal core that we've all known for the past couple of centuries. The Yankees were basically descended from Puritans who always wanted to prepare themselves and society for God's return. So they could never keep themselves out of other people's business and a near pathological fear of oligarchs. Their elites tend to be intellectuals. They have always led an alliance against the Deep South, generally composed of the Midlanders, New Netherland, and the Left Coast.
The Deep South was a slave nation in its earlier inception, complete with a racial caste system that survived even after the Civil War and even today you'll see echoes of it. They've generally allied themselves with Greater Appalachia, which was never the most welcoming group toward Africans and preferred that others not tell them what to do. They've paired that with Tidewater's love for oligarchy in any form.
Now, the current DNC as we know it, used to be controlled by the Yankees. In fact, Obama himself is a prototypical Yankee, but with a strong leaning towards the New Dutch Alliance. His belief in one's duty to society (Obamacare), the belief in converting newcomers to the American way (Dreamers), and the Puritan habit of not minding his own damn business (take an example, any example!). What happened though, between 2008 and 2016, is that New Netherlands has taken over the intellectual space within the alliance. How and why? Let me explain.
First, you must understand the New Netherlands culture. It was formed by the Dutch and since its inception, it's always had lots of different ethnic groups and even different languages spoken within its space. In order for that to be possible, New Netherlands has always had a culture of tolerance. Not perfect, mind you, but it was never a racist or exclusive society. In fact, what we see with New Netherlands is that they are so dedicated towards tolerance that they will overlook morality. Before the Confederates attack on the Union, New Netherlands supported the Deep South, on the belief of tolerance for others--up to and including slavers.
Now think of the world we live in now. A strong push for the tolerance of Islam (even if it's incompatible with gay rights, Jews, Christians, and so forth). A strong push towards accepting pedophilia. A strong push for accepting trannies. A strong push towards accepting anyone who is basically a mass murderer in the wings. That ALL comes from New Netherlands. But it's not the only nation that practices that concept; the Left Coast does too.
The Left Coast is a strange cat. It had a major starting influence under the Yankees, but also took on a Green aspect. But the area has always had a lot of Hispanics and Asians. The Left Coast is simply put, very ethnically diverse. And we saw how New Netherlands evolved from having a diverse lot; they overlook moral and ethical issues in order to obtain the tolerance needed to function. In a strange third dimension, the Left Coast has also developed a sort of oligarchy similar to the Deep South and Tidewater, thanks to the sheer power of Silicon Valley. And in fact, Silicon Valley is deeply connected to long, dangly supply chains throughout Asia and Africa.
Notice that both New Netherlands and the Left Coast together have a monopoly on US Media. Also note that both have exported a great deal of their "thinkers" to colleges all across the country--creating small enclaves of their nations throughout the other nations. In effect, the Netherlands have wrested control from the Yankees and are now struggling to keep that power. Closely allied with these two is El Norte; which must ally with them despite social differences, because El Norte is surging back into the USA and Greater Appalachia and Deep South will build a wally to stop that. The other is Tidewater, which supports this alliance because they encourage immigrants and guest workers who can be paid lower wages than their native workers. Remember that Clinton was basically a New York chick.
Now think back to 2016 and the RNC. Think of who the RNC obviously wanted; Jeb Bush. Why Jeb Bush? Well, he needed to smooth over the difficulties between Southern Oligarchs and the Southern Base. Basically, the white base is on the dowturn and the Deep South elites need someone to retain control of Texas. Since Obama basically left the border wide open, the influx means that this is in doubt. If the South lose Texas, they lose. End of story. They will be subservient to the other nations, because they would not be able to build a coalition that could resist it via the electoral college. Bringing El Norte on their side via social issues was their best bet. The low wage workers was also a bonus for them. That didn't work well with the base, which for ethnic reasons did not care for the idea, especially if it meant they'd be undercut in wages in a tough economy while struggling to produce families.
In addition to that, Spanish Caribbean that holds the south of Florida also needed to be brought into the GOP fold. So Jeb Bush needed to bring El Norte and Spanish Caribbean into the fold, while maintaining hold of the Deep South, Greater Appalachia, the Far West, and holding onto as much of Tidewater as possible.
Enter Trump.
Trump came in with a whole new approach. Keep in mind that Trump is a New Netherlanders, but was educated in the Midlands of Pennsylvania and spent much time in Florida. Trump had a whole new alliance in mind. He first cemented his reputation as a strong GOP candidate by talking about border control. Ie, the issue of El Norte's return. Well, that won over Greater Appalachia and the Deep South. He also talked about our military, which earned him bonus points for those two, but also helped secure his hold in the Far West. He also tried to make nice with Spanish Caribbean, since after all, he is only worried about El Norte, not them. He might be able to win with that, but he did something unexpected.
He reached across traditional alliance lines and recruited the Yankees and the Midlanders. The Yankees and the Midlanders had suffered from a similar problem as the south; job loss. The oligarchs of the Deep South, Greater Appalachia, Tidewater, Left Coast, and New Netherlands all benefited immensely from job removal to China. Cheap electronics makes it possible for Silicon Valley to dump a shitload of money into R&D instead of production costs. New York got large influx of immigrants and cheaper produced goods by Silicon Valley. Tidewater, Greater Appalachia, and the Deep South all got cheap labor.
Labor that used to be in Yankee and Midlander territory. So Trump went protectionist. Think back to all of those Never Trumpers; the people who had money to lose from protectionism. Think about the damage that would cause the Left Coast in both ideology, strategic value against the South, and their bottom line.
Simply put, Trump created an alliance that put together the traditional rivals of the USA against the emerging power of the Left Coast-New Netherlands alliance.
Okay, so we know that...how does that explain 2020?
Look at who ran last time; a New York elite. How many New York front runners are there? Biden is Midlander, Warren is a converted Yankee, and Sanders is a New Netherlanders who moved to Yankeedom. The DNC's primary goal is to win back the Blue Wall. And that...that is causing its own problems. Let's examine the two-pronged strategy here.
- Part I -- The easiest and less cynical part of the strategy is to get the Hispanics and Black voters on their side. With luck, using racist overtones will keep the black vote safely in the DNC alliance, while also disrupting the GOP in the Deep South. More importantly though, they need to win back Florida and they can only do that by convincing the spanish south of the state to vote with them. They want and support El Norte of course, but El Nort doesn't have the numbers to turn Texas right now. That's why you have the stupid shit with Booker speaking Spanish. They desperately need Florida.
- Part II -- Compromise is the harder and most cynical aspect of the DNC's strategy and painfully obvious how poorly managed it is. When people look at the debates and ask "Why can't they find someone with passion and energy?", this is why. Because the New Dutch DNC is only passionate about all-encompassing tolerance, regardless of the attached morality. That's why the front runner is two different shades of Yankee. You have Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden.
And this leads us to the major problem the DNC has right now. Joe Biden is the best looking guy on paper. He served under Obama, who easily carried the Yankees. He worked and supported the first black president, which should give him some street cred with the New Dutch. He supported Dreamers and health care, so that should win him support with El Norte and southern Florida. The problem with Biden is...Biden only looks good on paper. In reality, he's a little too touchy, he was a gaff machine when he was young, and as everyone whose debated him this year has said; he's old and feeble.
You can see the evidence for yourself; when Biden announced his running, he had a strong lead. He appeared untouchable to most of the country. And then he got on a debate stage and he has struggled to maintain his lead. Worse, not only is he weak, but his rivals within the DNC are attacking him, because certain factions of New Dutch have lost patience with the rest of the alliance and want their time in the limelight.
Well, they needed a back-up. Harris I think, was the obvious second choice. The people who run the DNC might be blind, but they aren't stupid. They knew that Biden might not be up for it. So I think the second option was Harris; a clear member of the New Dutch mold and she's black...or Indian...or a mix...whatever,
she's got dark skin. And you can see on the graph you posted, how Harris held a great deal of power. Problem was, she got her shit shoved in during the second debate and she hasn't recovered.
That leaves us with Warren. Warren was the option I don't think anyone wanted. She's more "moderate" than she's pretending and she's smart enough to understand strategy...but the problem is that Warren, despite being very much influenced by New Dutch thought, has also sinned. And to make up for that, she has been aggressively appealing to that crowd. She's also been trying to capture Sander's energy with her constant socialist promises. Now on paper, that makes Warren very unattractive, but she's also younger and more connected to the voters than Biden is. The hidden danger is also in the wing though--see, RNC and DNC elites do NOT want Warren for her policies. She's promising lots of socialist reforms. And she might actually do it; which will hurt Left Coast and Deep Southern oligarchs alike. Biden will play ball, Warren might not.
But that's the option right now. A good-on-paper Biden who is very much a paper-tiger, but MIGHT win people with a strong media blitz (or rather, media ran blitz) and the illusion of respectability to bring the Yankees back...or someone who looks rather poor on paper, but will be able to run a better campaign. There are no good options here for the DNC.
Before we all celebrate though, let's keep in mind that Trump has his own problems. Although aggressive in his promised policies, Trump has not had full victories. That itself is not necessarily the issue, but there is going to be a heavy media blitz and RNC oligarch resistance. Aided by Left Coast and Tidewater elites. The protectionism that Trump offers is a direct threat to their fortunes. They might even push for Biden to take a Republican RNC elite as his VP, if they're really hard for it, though I doubt that will work with the DNC base.
But Trump will face resistance from the RNC elite. Or the RNC elite will shift over to the DNC. For them, it's a choice between ideology and money. I think Trump has this, but we also have to see how this all plays out for the DNC. Who the ultimate pick is, how bloody the process is, and who the VP pick is.
