Basically you’ve got three classes of people, those who can and will take avoidant measures, those who won’t or can’t, and assholes who go around touching everyone and everything, acting like the virus is a joke. This thing will have a different R0 with each group. It will tear through the last group, spread through the second, and then die out with the first. The problem with prognosticating is, when it first hits, we see the high R0 because it is tearing through the last group of morons who are touching everything to be funny. After a while, it begins to spread through the second group, at a slower rate and the curve levels off. By the time it hits the last group, the R0 may be less than one, and it may just die out. I think that path is unavoidable, it is only a question of how quickly we can get through that process to get to where the R0 is lower than one, and begin to get things back to normal. To that end I am wondering if it isn’t a good idea to do this like a band aid. Panic whoever we can, let it do its thing among the idiots who ignore the risk, and shorten the period during which the cohort of idiots are going to threaten the well being of everyone else.