You do know that FF was very anti-war, right?
I am aware. Thing is however, even the old Emperor did not want war OTL. But you do not need to
want war to end up in it. Franz Ferdinand survives? Great. War gets delayed. But Serbia still wants to create its Greater Serbian Empire at the expense of Austria-Hungary, Italy still wants Croatian coast. Meaning that it is very likely
something will happen. And then there is still the competition between colonial powers in wider Europe, and these events may still draw Austria into them.
And Kaiser Karl was pro-peace, no? As was his son Otto, IIRC. Not the types who would start a new war or who would support Germany starting a new war.
Correct. But if Soviet Union gets formed anyway, then you still have a bunch of stir-crazy revolutionary morons at the helm of a great power. Soviet invasion of Poland in 1920.? They will be invading Germany and/or Austria-Hungary instead.
So how likely is the Communist revolution to happen in the Russian Empire without the war to kick it off?
@Aldarion Really, it would have benefitted both Serbia and Romania to join A-H if they were rational about this, and assuming that WWI would not have broken out by then. They could have been made their own federal units when combined with Bosnia + Dalmatia (for Serbia) and with Transylvania + Bukovina (for Romania).
Eh... Serbia and rationality do not go together, not in this scenario anyway. If somehow Serbia stays under Obrenović dynasty, then maybe, but Serb imperialists became way too strong under the Karađorđević dynasty (including Petar I. and Aleksandar I., so you don't get anybody sane on Serbian throne until regency of Pavle Karađorđević - but actual prince, Petar Karađorđević, was probably no better than previous rulers). Hence why Austro-Hungarian annexation of Bosnia - which was in fact a very logical move, even if it came too late - created a crisis.
Also, why combining Serbia with Bosnia and Dalmatia? Serbia has no historical claim to either area.