Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

Carrot of Truth said:

Hey just a while back after the whole Jan 6th thing they had our national guard sleeping in a damn parking garage. If we really had to do a mobilization with the US governments recent track record it would absolutely be a shit show.

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That only happened because Biden does not give a shit about the military. Just like Obama didn't.

Carrot of Truth said:

Hey just a while back after the whole Jan 6th thing they had our national guard sleeping in a damn parking garage. If we really had to do a mobilization with the US governments recent track record it would absolutely be a shit show.

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That is kinda what we are expected

Vaermina said:

You apparently missed the name on that, given we have independent confirmation of exactly how many of his platoon were actually killed.

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I think you missed the fact multiple individuals are being interviewed, as I've already shown.

Also note that that article is from nearly three weeks ago, which was when Ukraine was still making Russia think Kherson was the main thrust of their counter attack. And before the real seige of the city began.

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Because it was the main effort and there is no siege of Kherson.

You mean stuff that's already been posted that you ignore?

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You mean the stuff that was never posted, as I said? Easy enough for you to link to it or quote, instead of this, so please don't pretend you can't be bothered to do so. You don't because it either doesn't exist or I've already addressed it. Hence why you continue to just say stuff instead of backing up your claims as I asked.

Megadeath said:

Except... Neither of those things happened? He didn't say you never discussed it, he said you failed to address issues and substantiate claims when you did discuss it.

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Now you're contradicting your own words lol:

Megadeath said:

Uh... That's literally contradicting yourself from one sentence to the next. "You shifted to something we didn't talk about, to make it look like I didn't respond." and "You admit that we have already been over this." CAN NOT both be true statements.

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In your own words, both of them cannot be true, so which is it? Specifically though, as usual, you're lying however as I directly quoted my own past posts to show he was lying. If you're going to try to lie, at least be cognizant of the fact I can pull my own past quotes to disprove it lol.

Nor did I screw up "my own" English. It's clear that on top of blatant bias, and a peculiar stupidity that prevents you from adjusting that bias to accommodate clear realities, you are having difficulties with the language aspect.

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But you did:

Megadeath said:

EDIT; If it helps, you can just post directly in russian and I'll r̶u̶n̶ ̶i̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶r̶o̶u̶g̶h̶ ̶G̶o̶o̶g̶l̶e̶ ̶t̶r̶a̶n̶s̶l̶a̶t̶e̶ continue trying to ignore the stupidity.

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You left out the "and" that needed to go between translate and continue. On the whole, however, you're doing a run on sentence anyway. It would help you to at least know the basics of the English language before trying to critique someone else.

I would suggest you slow down, take the time to read things through twice, and try to do so objectively rather than through the lense of impotent rage. Argue with and respond to what people say, rather than reading just enough to confirm your bias and going back to beating your favourite strawmen. I imagine if you actually had the self awareness to do so though we wouldn't find ourselves in this situation to begin with.

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Is that why you always try to reply guy me and then, to quote you from the past, "fuck off" when I pick you apart piece by piece? It really says a lot about your capabilities (and the rest of your lot) that the best you can do is try to repurpose my own words as an attack.

Certainly, on the other hand, this paragraph is amusing given you just accused me of being a Russian agent. Which way is it? If I'm getting paid to do this, according to you, what does it say about your own life that you continue to engage for free? Hell, in our last tangle you made a big deal of how you couldn't be bothered to actually respond to the points I said, yet here you are again. Truth is what I say is true, painfully so for most of you, it's why you have to so voraciously attempt to argue with me because my words have sting given they pierce your delusions.

strunkenwhite said:

So, then, you agree that the claim about Oryx's inaccuracy on counting downed aircraft was wrong? Because the 234 number included helicopters which you agree are not planes, and Oryx's numbers include 55 "combat aircraft" which are likely the same thing as the AF general's 55 "warplanes". If your claim is modified to "Oryx is using bad vocabulary" then I think we can agree to disagree.

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Or, you can add UAVs to the plane total to see exactly what I mean.

If the aim is simply to put a well-documented floor on possible equipment losses, then no. Such is in no way an "estimate" and it would be useless if used as such.

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If you really believed that, then why are you arguing?

And yet, this has no direct relation to actual losses, and no indirect relation that you seem to care to identify, apparently preferring to ask rhetorical questions that are not on point to the question at hand.

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Or this is an obvious cop out by you? Pretty simple, either the AFU knows its own losses within a reasonable degree or it doesn't, which suggests reporting within it has broken down for sometime with all that implies for its ability to effectively sustain itself logistically. It's why you avoided the question, it's why you attempted to cherry pick on this point overall from the original post, and it fits with your suspiciously inability to engage the post as a whole because of a supposed time constraint that has not prevented you from carrying on this dialogue.

LordsFire said:

Yeah, really feeling that 'industrial superiority' HL is so confident in.

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Simply astounding how much I live in your head rent free.

History Learner said:

Or, you can add UAVs to the plane total to see exactly what I mean.

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Or, you could substantiate your assumption that he was talking about UAVs as well as fighter jets.

If you really believed that, then why are you arguing?

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What do you think I'm arguing? With respect to this specific line of questioning, I'm just responding to you. I can stop if you like, but perhaps you should stop asking questions you don't want me to answer.

Or this is an obvious cop out by you? Pretty simple, either the AFU knows its own losses within a reasonable degree or it doesn't, which suggests reporting within it has broken down for sometime with all that implies for its ability to effectively sustain itself logistically. It's why you avoided the question, it's why you attempted to cherry pick on this point overall from the original post, and it fits with your suspiciously inability to engage the post as a whole because of a supposed time constraint that has not prevented you from carrying on this dialogue.

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"I don't have time now (and make no promises of later)"
If this misled you to think that I was "making no promises" to have time later, let me correct your misunderstanding: I was "making no promises" to respond point by point to your entire post later. If you are not willing to engage with someone objecting to a specific part of your post, you can quit now. If you think that, by choosing this specific part to argue about, I'm somehow dishonestly taking advantage of that specificity to mischaracterize your position ("cherry picking"), feel free to make an argument laying that out in detail. If you think I'm picking on the one thing you got wrong while ignoring everything you got right, congratulations! Just concede the supposedly insignificant point and walk away.

I would disagree with your implication that Ukraine is unable to estimate its own losses any better than what that guy did in that interview. I would (did) argue that he was playing up the losses (which I think we'd agree are usually played down) in the context of begging the West for additional aid. In support of this, I showed that even within the context of his own testimony he was indisputably highballing the loss figures.

I mean, Jesus Christ. We've spent this long agonizing over ... ONE PARAGRAPH of your post. Is it really unimaginable that I would not care to expand my efforts to the rest for any reason other than dishonesty?

When do you guys think that Ukraine's next census will be? It was previously planned for 2023 but will very likely be postponed due to the war. I can't see the war ending by 2023, honestly.

Scottty said:

Drones gonna drone

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In the beginning, you see the Ukrainians doing this to the Russian forces. Now, thanks to the Iranian drones, is payback time. Any mobile force without decent flak support is just food these days.

paulobrito said:

In the beginning, you see the Ukrainians doing this to the Russian forces. Now, thanks to the Iranian drones, is payback time. Any mobile force without decent flak support is just food these days.

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They can only get so many drones from Iran, because Iran isn't much of an industrialized power and in all likely hood the Ukrainans are getting better drones to play with from the 20 year long sandbox adventure stockpile.

Cherico said:

They can only get so many drones from Iran, because Iran isn't much of an industrialized power

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Same was said for Russian Kalibr missiles, that they will run out in matter weeks and the industry won't be able to keep up and yet the Kalibr strikes are still a daily occurrence (and for some reason unauthorised filming of the effect of these strikes is a capital offence in Ukraine). If they can supply enough drones to supplement Russian drone, artillery and air strikes, then Ukrainians are in a bit of trouble, but like in every war it's a circle of measure and countermeasure,

Cherico said:

all likely hood the Ukrainans are getting better drones to play with

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Which ones? Reapers have been blocked, same with Gray Eagle and anyway, both have large enough radar return to be targeted by AA and fighters. Switchblades and Phoenix Ghost had their initial shock but then the Ukrainians decided that their overall effect was rather underwhelming, although it's possible that it was meant as to pressure to get Reapers and Eagles.

I mean, a single convoy.
We have also seen a lot of the drones be shot down or destroyed from FARPs

strunkenwhite said:

I mean, Jesus Christ. We've spent this long agonizing over ... ONE PARAGRAPH of your post. Is it really unimaginable that I would not care to expand my efforts to the rest for any reason other than dishonesty?

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He is not arguing in good Faith.Let him be.
On another topic - @History Learner ,could you deliver funny soviet sources about evils fighting for Ukraine? i miss it since @Chiron go away.I hope,that kgb do not killed him.

Zachowon said:

Why not ask the local fin?
@Tyzuris

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Basically there was no referendum on the matter, but the national polls turned to overwhelming support of NATO membership which gave the parliament the needed democratic backbone to support sending NATO application (which in turn gave the government and president needed parliamental backbone to send said application as well).

So, it isn't looking like this mobilization will be any more effective than prior efforts to increase numbers.

This isn't guaranteed to make sure all the new Russian forces are completely wasted, but it sure makes it seem likely.

LordsFire said:

So, it isn't looking like this mobilization will be any more effective than prior efforts to increase numbers.

This isn't guaranteed to make sure all the new Russian forces are completely wasted, but it sure makes it seem likely.

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It depends, the competence of these guys will be about one thing anyway, not to be blind and know how to call in artillery. Whether they know how to shoot matters less.

And even less important are precisely the young people, it is the older ones who are more important because Russian doctrine assumes full mobilization before the war and not in war, and this is because for the Russian army the professional troops are supposed to be only the backbone of the real army, which ergo many positions that are really necessary were not filled, such as messengers or mechanics, which is precisely the reason for the hopeless display of Russian logistics and downloading equipment and repairing them.
It is precisely the majority of conscripts that will go there, by which the whole thing should start to work better.

Batrix2070 said:

It is precisely the majority of conscripts that will go there, by which the whole thing should start to work better.

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...You really haven't been paying much attention to what the Russians have been doing with their conscripts up to this point, have you?

There's been a lot of 'Yes, it's nice that you have a nursing degree, here's your rifle, get to the front lines.'

LordsFire said:

..You really haven't been paying much attention to what the Russians have been doing with their conscripts up to this point, have you?

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I see, only that Twitter as well as media cases in general have this in common that they like to show certain cases and exaggerate them. But the fact is that finally people will start to hit, of different quality, sometimes not where they need to be, but meaningful hits and the whole thing will start to work better than before. Because so far the Russians have lacked people to man the front and saturate them.
Their quality is a secondary issue, it never mattered beyond the low level in Russia, more the speed of replacing losses like teeth in a shark.

Let me put it this way, the planners who came up with the mobilization system of the USSR and which Russia, despite reforms, still has in an unchanged shape designed a system whose main principle is amorality as well as indifference to the condition of the people inside the machine, what matters is that they are there.
Because let's not kid ourselves, they saw the mess better than anyone else.

Only one rule, it is to be fired before the war and not during it! That's why we have a shit show, because those who should be train the conscripts are either lying in the grave now or fighting in Ukraine.
Only some of the professional ones are here in Russia. And those have to just like the normal troops in Ukraine embrace twice as much work that could have been skipped if Putin had mobilized the Military earlier before the war.

Here are the lyrics for the Ukrainian song Putin is a Dickhead: