Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

BlackDragon98 said:

NY Times?

You trying to tell us your a RINO or what?

Click to expand...

Are you trying to assert its not happening because they say it or what?

Marduk said:

Being a nationalist, he's target audience for Putin's very much not nationalist but imperial elitist/corruptocrat oligarchy and its cons, and here it shows.
Human capital? We don't do that in corruptocrat oligarchy, we call it "competition to our precious political positions".
Naturally the occupation, as we are seeing it in areas Russia controls, will drive away most of human capital the war didn't, and they will mostly head west. Criminals, useful idiots, conmen, and people too dull, old or poor to move away will remain. Meanwhile thanks to the increasing international isolation a lot of Russia's own human capital is leaving now.

Russian Tech Industry Faces ‘Brain Drain’ as Workers Flee (Published 2022)

Since their country invaded Ukraine, Russian tech workers have left by the thousands. They appear intent on rebuilding their lives and businesses in other countries.

www.nytimes.com

The precise terms used, ironically, tell the story accurately. It's about lands, not people. Corruptocrats of any sort are both willing and able to do profitable things with extra lands, and divvying up control over loads of newly conquered lands is a grand party for all.
The people on the conquered lands are just a somewhat useful labor force at best, and a pain in the ass who want part of the spoils for their silly healthcare and retirements and shit at worst, and that's without even getting into the possibility of guerilla warfare.
It's also why Russian forces don't shy away from infrastructure damage, just like the driven out population, they don't mind, and don't plan on rebuilding much of it, as most of it is simply superfluous to their resource exploitation focused business plans.

Click to expand...

Anatoly Karlin (and China-worshipper Richard Hanania as well) believed that there was not going to be any insurgency in Ukraine after a Russian occupation because Ukraine had sub-replacement fertility rates. The argument is that countries with sub-replacement fertility rates have historically not had insurgencies. That might be true, but they have also historically not had occupations either. While it's harder for a sub-replacement fertility population to sustain an insurgency, it's still possible if the base population is extremely large. The base population also matters a lot here.

And Yeah, you might very well be correct here. Putin would likely prefer that Ukrainians who oppose his rule and can't be reconciled with it should emigrate so that they will not be able to behave as subversives within Russia. I do think that corrupt authoritarian regimes value human capital since it allows them to develop more tech, et cetera--just so long as this human capital is not subversive in any meaningful way, of course. But Yeah, getting Ukraine's natural resources (good agricultural land, whatever minerals, et cetera are found in Ukraine, et cetera) would also be a part of the gains for Putin. But since Russians themselves aren't breeding very much, repopulating Ukraine will mean depopulating Russia to an extent. Though Ukraine could theoretically remain a wasteland for an extremely long time. It could have Russian overlords but be largely depopulated and a large resource extraction and perhaps food production site, as you said.

Having Russia conquer Galicia would be a huge pain in the ass for it even if it will somehow eventually manage to conquer Kiev, which in itself is not guaranteed since conquering a 3-million-strong city is likely to be quite the challenge, especially for a military that does not have a draft (Russia does not). And if any part of Ukraine will remain free, then Ukrainians can move there instead of moving to the West--at least among the more patriotic ones. And this Free Ukraine will serve as an inspiration for the remaining Ukrainians under Russian rule as this Free Ukraine will pursue its EU integration. It will be like West vs. East Germany during the Cold War, and East Germany rapidly collapsed as soon as its borders with West Germany were opened.

You might want to add Brian Berletic as a possible Kremlin asset (though an official shill for the ChiComms).

TheRomanSlayer said:

You might want to add Brian Berletic as a possible Kremlin asset (though an official shill for the ChiComms).

Click to expand...

One can simultaneously shill for both Russia and China, as Richard Hanania is currently doing lol!

Anyway, what I find interesting is that Russians don't seem to care just how little the West has done to oppose the renewed spread of Russian influence into Central Asia. This is because, unlike for Ukraine, the West can offer little to Central Asia and thus Russia is allowed a free hand there just so long as it doesn't actually go and start invading anyone there. This is actually a beneficial arrangement for Central Asia, or at least was before the recent wave of Western anti-Russian sanctions. The problem for Russia is that Ukraine has a more attractive Western model to turn to and thus doesn't want to turn to Russia. This was true even before Ukraine's Maidan Revolution, with even Viktor Yanukovych initially preferring EU integration to Russian integration. And Belarus is too small for the West to really care all that much about it and it's not like the West has any realistic way of shaping developments and events on the ground in Belarus short of a color revolution succeeding there. So, Yeah, this is why exactly there has been such an intense competition over Ukraine and so little competition over Central Asia.

An excellent Max Hastings article:

Let Ukraine go to the EU, and Russia can keep its influence in Central Asia. However, Brzezinski points out that a Russian Empire like entity without Ukraine is basically a de facto Asian power. That's why various Russian rulers saw Ukraine as their official path to being considered 'European', as if they didn't care about their Asian half of the country.

TheRomanSlayer said:

Let Ukraine go to the EU, and Russia can keep its influence in Central Asia. However, Brzezinski points out that a Russian Empire like entity without Ukraine is basically a de facto Asian power. That's why various Russian rulers saw Ukraine as their official path to being considered 'European', as if they didn't care about their Asian half of the country.

Click to expand...

It's not a de facto Asian power. It's a Eurasian power. A Russia without Ukraine would be half European peoples (Slavs, Germans, et cetera) and half Asian peoples, primarily Central Asians.

TheRomanSlayer said:

Let Ukraine go to the EU, and Russia can keep its influence in Central Asia. However, Brzezinski points out that a Russian Empire like entity without Ukraine is basically a de facto Asian power. That's why various Russian rulers saw Ukraine as their official path to being considered 'European', as if they didn't care about their Asian half of the country.

Click to expand...

I've read that this is one of the issues Putin's circle wants to solve. They don't trust the Central Asian cultures, especially the Muslim ones, as they get more and more relative pull in Russia as their population fraction grows.

WolfBear said:

Anatoly Karlin (and China-worshipper Richard Hanania as well) believed that there was not going to be any insurgency in Ukraine after a Russian occupation because Ukraine had sub-replacement fertility rates. The argument is that countries with sub-replacement fertility rates have historically not had insurgencies. That might be true, but they have also historically not had occupations either. While it's harder for a sub-replacement fertility population to sustain an insurgency, it's still possible if the base population is extremely large. The base population also matters a lot here.

Click to expand...

Yeah, the sub-replacement fertility countries are a big thing only since late 60's, so not many opportunities there.
Either way, that only matters for the very long term, measured in generations. In short term, number of motivated military age men matters.

WolfBear said:

And Yeah, you might very well be correct here. Putin would likely prefer that Ukrainians who oppose his rule and can't be reconciled with it should emigrate so that they will not be able to behave as subversives within Russia. I do think that corrupt authoritarian regimes value human capital since it allows them to develop more tech, et cetera--just so long as this human capital is not subversive in any meaningful way, of course. But Yeah, getting Ukraine's natural resources (good agricultural land, whatever minerals, et cetera are found in Ukraine, et cetera) would also be a part of the gains for Putin. But since Russians themselves aren't breeding very much, repopulating Ukraine will mean depopulating Russia to an extent.

Click to expand...

They neither want nor need to really, if they don't want occupied Ukraine to be an industrial/technological power in itself. As a resource exploitation area, it doesn't need many people. Ukraine could lose even as much as 80% of its population and still have a higher population density than Alaska or Canada, about equaling Norway.

WolfBear said:

Though Ukraine could theoretically remain a wasteland for an extremely long time. It could have Russian overlords but be largely depopulated and a large resource extraction and perhaps food production site, as you said.

Click to expand...

Large parts of Russia itself are described as post communist industrial wasteland already.
If Russia had a problem with having such ruined, underused territories, they would be doing something with the ones they already have, instead of invading new ones and ruining them in the process.
But for a corruptocratic oligarchy, "building tall" is dangerous, as that requires competent managers who may later want a piece of the pie themselves and have the competency to reach for it, while "building wide" means just more pie for the current powers that be.

WolfBear said:

Having Russia conquer Galicia would be a huge pain in the ass for it even if it will somehow eventually manage to conquer Kiev, which in itself is not guaranteed since conquering a 3-million-strong city is likely to be quite the challenge, especially for a military that does not have a draft (Russia does not). And if any part of Ukraine will remain free, then Ukrainians can move there instead of moving to the West--at least among the more patriotic ones. And this Free Ukraine will serve as an inspiration for the remaining Ukrainians under Russian rule as this Free Ukraine will pursue its EU integration. It will be like West vs. East Germany during the Cold War, and East Germany rapidly collapsed as soon as its borders with West Germany were opened.

Click to expand...

The conclusion current Russian government would take from that history is to keep borders closed.

Marduk said:

I've read that this is one of the issues Putin's circle wants to solve. They don't trust the Central Asian cultures, especially the Muslim ones, as they get more and more relative pull in Russia as their population fraction grows.

Yeah, the sub-replacement fertility countries are a big thing only since late 60's, so not many opportunities there.
Either way, that only matters for the very long term, measured in generations. In short term, number of motivated military age men matters.

They neither want nor need to really, if they don't want occupied Ukraine to be an industrial/technological power in itself. As a resource exploitation area, it doesn't need many people. Ukraine could lose even as much as 80% of its population and still have a higher population density than Alaska or Canada, about equaling Norway.

Click to expand...

That problem won't really be solved by invading Ukraine, though, since most Ukrainians will likely simply emigrate if Russia actually succeeds in conquering all of Ukraine. This problem should be solved by having Russians breed more like Israeli Jews are currently doing.

Agreed.

Agreed.

Large parts of Russia itself are described as post communist industrial wasteland already.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/13/russia-industrial-mill-closed-siberia/

If Russia had a problem with having such ruined, underused territories, they would be doing something with the ones they already have, instead of invading new ones and ruining them in the process.
But for a corruptocratic oligarchy, "building tall" is dangerous, as that requires competent managers who may later want a piece of the pie themselves and have the competency to reach for it, while "building wide" means just more pie for the current powers that be.

The conclusion current Russian government would take from that history is to keep borders closed.

Click to expand...

Agreed.

That would mean more subversives within Russia, though, which might not be appealing to Putin either.

Zachowon said:

Whats this about unbeatable SAMs?

Click to expand...

Ahem.


Care to reconsider your statement?

Looks like those Unbeatable Russian SAMs are actually just that considering they just shot down an enhanced 4.5 Generation Strike Aircraft... You know... the same Aircraft that most of NATO's Air Forces are made up of. If they can do this to an Aircraft that only first came out in 2014... imagine what they'll do to those far older NATO aircraft.

The Donbass separatists set their eyes on their Alamo, specifically Sloviansk:



It's their Alamo because they lost this battle back in 2014 but it helped shape their identity:


Just like the Texas rebels' identity was shaped in part by the Battle of the Alamo:


Do I think that the Donbass separatists actually deserve to conquer Sloviansk? No, because the people there likely don't want to live under their rule. And FWIW, I myself have, or at least had several decades ago, some maternal relatives living in Sloviansk. I'm not sure what happened to them and their descendants by now since we haven't kept in touch with them for several decades, unfortunately.

That said, though, Sloviansk would at least be an understandable target for the Donbass separatists given its extremely huge symbolism to them.

Husky_Khan said:

Ahem.

Russia Accidentally Shoots Down Their Own $36M Su-34 Bomber, Ukraine Claims

The jet was reportedly downed near Alchevsk, a city in the Luhansk region and one of the areas where Vladimir Putin's war is focused.

www.newsweek.com

Care to reconsider your statement?

Looks like those Unbeatable Russian SAMs are actually just that considering they just shot down an enhanced 4.5 Generation Strike Aircraft... You know... the same Aircraft that most of NATO's Air Forces are made up of. If they can do this to an Aircraft that only first came out in 2014... imagine what they'll do to those far older NATO aircraft.

Click to expand...

It shows it can shoot IFF tags that's for sure

WolfBear said:

Is Russia Fascist? - The Globalist

No previous fascism made it past its youth. This one is a late-stage fascism. It necessarily takes some styles and structures from late-stage Soviet Communism.

www.theglobalist.com

Click to expand...

Ukraine government is actually made of Nazis with their Israeli-sponsored Zionist pet puppet.

So this question might directed to the ones in Kiev.

TheRejectionist said:

Ukraine government is actually made of Nazis with their Israeli-sponsored Zionist pet puppet.

So this question might directed to the ones in Kiev.

Click to expand...

Nazis and Israeli sponsored Zionist puppets working together??

Care to explain this please?

Tiamat said:

Care to explain this please?

Click to expand...

He won't explain, it's like that because that's what the Russkies say so it must be true.
Because it's not Western crap that perpetually lies.

Batrix2070 said:

He won't explain, it's like that because that's what the Russkies say so it must be true.
Because it's not Western crap that perpetually lies.

Click to expand...

I get that, I’m just trying to understand the logic here assuming there is any, seeing as there is some well documented historical friction between Nazis and Jews. Something about the Holocaust, 6 million dead Jews and all that…

Tiamat said:

Nazis and Israeli sponsored Zionist puppets working together??

Care to explain this please?

Click to expand...

how many Rothschild were killed in the Holocaust?

Zero.

The Nazis even captured a Rothschild

Louis Nathaniel de Rothschild - Wikipedia

but they let him go for a ransom

instead the Nazis choose to kill the legit, Orthodox Jews, which the Rothchilds and Co. used as a sacrifice to save their own skins

Rothchilds and Co. are not real Jews. That is why we must use the term Zionist instead of Jew to differentiate between the two.

They only use Judaism and the term Jew as cover for their nefarious activities.

And Israel is their resort/money laundering center/army.

But what they don't know is that when their deception is revealed, the real Jews in Israel will turn against them alongside the rest of the world.

Batrix2070 said:

He won't explain, it's like that because that's what the Russkies say so it must be true.
Because it's not Western crap that perpetually lies.

Click to expand...

Indeed,they think that Putin oppose globohomo he must be friend.
Common mistake in the West.They forget,that usually bad guys do not fight Gondor or Elves,but another bad guys.