raharris1973
Well-known member
What if Australia and the United States unequivocally recognized the independence of the Indonesian republic from VJ-Day on, over the entire former Dutch East Indies?
What if the two countries opposed Dutch reclamation of the territory from the very beginning and supported immediate independence, with as much UN supervision as the Indonesians would be willing to tolerate?
They recognize the self-proclaimed Batavia/Jakarta Indonesia Republic, and tell Mountbatten sending in any British Empire forces to not do any reinstalling of Dutch troops, police, or administration. and refuses to provide any logistical support to the Dutch for the purpose of getting from Netherlands or other lands to the former DEI.
Their rationale could be that Indonesia is the economic and political prize and centerpiece of Southeast Asia.
They follow the same policy for Japanese occupied East Timor, offering the residents a plebiscite to choose whether they want to be an independent republic on their own, federate with Indonesia, or return to Portuguese rule. [They did not have an indigenous independence movement to state a particular preference by word or deed to my knowledge in 1945, but in OTL they also were not consulted on being returned to Portugal].
The Netherlands would have been quite offended by this intervention into what it considered its internal imperial affairs, and would find its hopes of using Indonesia to fuel the economic reconstruction of the Netherlands in Europe dashed. Portugal, despite lacking similar reconstruction needs, would probably be similarly outraged.
Should we assume that support for democratic parties in the Netherlands would have cratered as a result of broken relations with the US, the Communist vote would have risen, and the Netherlands would have aligned with the Soviet bloc? Or less extremely, might the Netherlands have remained a democracy but reverted to a strictly neutral foreign policy, avoiding international alliances like the Western European Union, NATO, European Coal and Steel Community, etc.? What would have been the consequences of any of these degrees of Dutch separatism for Western Europe? Would Portugal be destabilized by being undermined by being deprived of East Timor? Could it create an opening for a Communist Portugal in the 40s or later? Or simply inspire Estado Novo reactionary Portugal to have an anti-American third way foreign policy while also being anti-Communist?
We can safely assume that with support for Indonesian independence and territorial unity over the former DEI (and the possibility of federation with East Timor) from America and Australia, that Indonesia would be a staunch US ally in Asia, follow the US lead on China recognition policy, vote the US way when the Korean War breaks out, and sign on to the SEATO alliance when that is formed, correct?
What if the two countries opposed Dutch reclamation of the territory from the very beginning and supported immediate independence, with as much UN supervision as the Indonesians would be willing to tolerate?
They recognize the self-proclaimed Batavia/Jakarta Indonesia Republic, and tell Mountbatten sending in any British Empire forces to not do any reinstalling of Dutch troops, police, or administration. and refuses to provide any logistical support to the Dutch for the purpose of getting from Netherlands or other lands to the former DEI.
Their rationale could be that Indonesia is the economic and political prize and centerpiece of Southeast Asia.
They follow the same policy for Japanese occupied East Timor, offering the residents a plebiscite to choose whether they want to be an independent republic on their own, federate with Indonesia, or return to Portuguese rule. [They did not have an indigenous independence movement to state a particular preference by word or deed to my knowledge in 1945, but in OTL they also were not consulted on being returned to Portugal].
The Netherlands would have been quite offended by this intervention into what it considered its internal imperial affairs, and would find its hopes of using Indonesia to fuel the economic reconstruction of the Netherlands in Europe dashed. Portugal, despite lacking similar reconstruction needs, would probably be similarly outraged.
Should we assume that support for democratic parties in the Netherlands would have cratered as a result of broken relations with the US, the Communist vote would have risen, and the Netherlands would have aligned with the Soviet bloc? Or less extremely, might the Netherlands have remained a democracy but reverted to a strictly neutral foreign policy, avoiding international alliances like the Western European Union, NATO, European Coal and Steel Community, etc.? What would have been the consequences of any of these degrees of Dutch separatism for Western Europe? Would Portugal be destabilized by being undermined by being deprived of East Timor? Could it create an opening for a Communist Portugal in the 40s or later? Or simply inspire Estado Novo reactionary Portugal to have an anti-American third way foreign policy while also being anti-Communist?
We can safely assume that with support for Indonesian independence and territorial unity over the former DEI (and the possibility of federation with East Timor) from America and Australia, that Indonesia would be a staunch US ally in Asia, follow the US lead on China recognition policy, vote the US way when the Korean War breaks out, and sign on to the SEATO alliance when that is formed, correct?