Would the Netherlands have fallen to the Soviet camp & would it have been so bad, if the US unequivocally supported Indonesian independence in 1945?

[raharris1973]

What if Australia and the United States unequivocally recognized the independence of the Indonesian republic from VJ-Day on, over the entire former Dutch East Indies?

What if the two countries opposed Dutch reclamation of the territory from the very beginning and supported immediate independence, with as much UN supervision as the Indonesians would be willing to tolerate?

They recognize the self-proclaimed Batavia/Jakarta Indonesia Republic, and tell Mountbatten sending in any British Empire forces to not do any reinstalling of Dutch troops, police, or administration. and refuses to provide any logistical support to the Dutch for the purpose of getting from Netherlands or other lands to the former DEI.

Their rationale could be that Indonesia is the economic and political prize and centerpiece of Southeast Asia.

They follow the same policy for Japanese occupied East Timor, offering the residents a plebiscite to choose whether they want to be an independent republic on their own, federate with Indonesia, or return to Portuguese rule. [They did not have an indigenous independence movement to state a particular preference by word or deed to my knowledge in 1945, but in OTL they also were not consulted on being returned to Portugal].

The Netherlands would have been quite offended by this intervention into what it considered its internal imperial affairs, and would find its hopes of using Indonesia to fuel the economic reconstruction of the Netherlands in Europe dashed. Portugal, despite lacking similar reconstruction needs, would probably be similarly outraged.

Should we assume that support for democratic parties in the Netherlands would have cratered as a result of broken relations with the US, the Communist vote would have risen, and the Netherlands would have aligned with the Soviet bloc? Or less extremely, might the Netherlands have remained a democracy but reverted to a strictly neutral foreign policy, avoiding international alliances like the Western European Union, NATO, European Coal and Steel Community, etc.? What would have been the consequences of any of these degrees of Dutch separatism for Western Europe? Would Portugal be destabilized by being undermined by being deprived of East Timor? Could it create an opening for a Communist Portugal in the 40s or later? Or simply inspire Estado Novo reactionary Portugal to have an anti-American third way foreign policy while also being anti-Communist?

We can safely assume that with support for Indonesian independence and territorial unity over the former DEI (and the possibility of federation with East Timor) from America and Australia, that Indonesia would be a staunch US ally in Asia, follow the US lead on China recognition policy, vote the US way when the Korean War breaks out, and sign on to the SEATO alliance when that is formed, correct?

 

[WolfBear]

What if Australia and the United States unequivocally recognized the independence of the Indonesian republic from VJ-Day on, over the entire former Dutch East Indies?

What if the two countries opposed Dutch reclamation of the territory from the very beginning and supported immediate independence, with as much UN supervision as the Indonesians would be willing to tolerate?

They recognize the self-proclaimed Batavia/Jakarta Indonesia Republic, and tell Mountbatten sending in any British Empire forces to not do any reinstalling of Dutch troops, police, or administration. and refuses to provide any logistical support to the Dutch for the purpose of getting from Netherlands or other lands to the former DEI.

Their rationale could be that Indonesia is the economic and political prize and centerpiece of Southeast Asia.

They follow the same policy for Japanese occupied East Timor, offering the residents a plebiscite to choose whether they want to be an independent republic on their own, federate with Indonesia, or return to Portuguese rule. [They did not have an indigenous independence movement to state a particular preference by word or deed to my knowledge in 1945, but in OTL they also were not consulted on being returned to Portugal].

The Netherlands would have been quite offended by this intervention into what it considered its internal imperial affairs, and would find its hopes of using Indonesia to fuel the economic reconstruction of the Netherlands in Europe dashed. Portugal, despite lacking similar reconstruction needs, would probably be similarly outraged.

Should we assume that support for democratic parties in the Netherlands would have cratered as a result of broken relations with the US, the Communist vote would have risen, and the Netherlands would have aligned with the Soviet bloc? Or less extremely, might the Netherlands have remained a democracy but reverted to a strictly neutral foreign policy, avoiding international alliances like the Western European Union, NATO, European Coal and Steel Community, etc.? What would have been the consequences of any of these degrees of Dutch separatism for Western Europe? Would Portugal be destabilized by being undermined by being deprived of East Timor? Could it create an opening for a Communist Portugal in the 40s or later? Or simply inspire Estado Novo reactionary Portugal to have an anti-American third way foreign policy while also being anti-Communist?

We can safely assume that with support for Indonesian independence and territorial unity over the former DEI (and the possibility of federation with East Timor) from America and Australia, that Indonesia would be a staunch US ally in Asia, follow the US lead on China recognition policy, vote the US way when the Korean War breaks out, and sign on to the SEATO alliance when that is formed, correct?

Having the Dutch directly align with the Soviets would be very risky since in any WWIII they would quickly be conquered by the West, no? But renewed Dutch neutrality might be much more plausible in this TL, unfortunately.

 

[Skallagrim]

I doubt this would turn the Netherlands in any way communist, or even aligned with the USSR. The Dutch approach to international relations has always been "Quid Pro Quo". The USA pretty much screwing over the Dutch regarding the East Indies would be a major issue, but not one that couldn't be solved with the correct... compensation.

In this case, the Dutch protest would be A) "over-hasty (forced) withdrawal will be a disaster for Indonesia", and B) "you Americans are crushing our global economic prospects, even though we've been war-ravaged and are your allies".

This is by no means an unreasonable position. Note that the Dutch agreed to turn the (former) Dutch Empire (the Netherlands, Suriname, the Dutch Antilles, Indonesia and Dutch New Guinea) into a commonwealth of sovereign states with a united monarchy in 1946. This agreement was then immediately betrayed by the Indonesians, who stabbed the Dutch in the back and forcibly set out to establish a fully independent republic anyway. (Something not desired by several parts of Indonesia, which were subdued by force, and certainly not by Dutch New Guinea, which was conquered.)

If this is all forced by the USA right away, then the Dutch are faced with a fait accompli, all their holdings in the East Indies now lost. This does prevent all the OTL wrangling, betrayal, 'police actions' to try and enforce the '46 agreement... not to mention that the substantial migration on Indonesians to the Netherlands is now off the table. Relations will be pretty frosty, and the Dutch will not be letting any Indonesians immigrate, for damn sure. (Considering how the situation with the Molukkers ended up, that may ultimately be for the best. If the Indonesians want independence, let them sort out their own shit amongst themselves.)

So in the short term, the Dutch feel betrayed by the USA. They'll need to be mollified. In OTL, the Americans visiting to determine the (degree of) need for aid in Western Europe were pretty shocked by the situation in the Netherlands. It actually wasn't that bad, but they were hosted by Prime Minster Willem Drees. Now he was a Labour man, of the old guard. None of that progressive left-wing shit, and no commie crap. Just a guy who stood up for the working man. (He's beloved even by the far right in the Netherlands, to this day. He actually broke with the Labour Party late in life, when they took commie money and became ideologically insane.)

So these Americans visit him. He lives in a small house. He's got no staff. He offers them all one (1) cup of coffee with one (1) biscuit. Now that was how he lived anyway, because he was frugal like that, and doubly so because the country still had to be rebuilt and he refused to live it up while some of his countrymen were still living in tents because their homes had been bombed. Result: the Americans concluded that the Netherlands need a lot of aid, and pronto!

That's OTL. In this ATL, the Dutch can reasonably argue that their prospects are even more dire than they seemed in OTL. I think the Netherlands will get even more American aid money. I also think that the Americans would apply pressure (read: make a certain amount of aid to various countries conditional upon) the instiutions of the European Coal and Steel Community becoming located in the Netherlands. (This issue was hotly debated, and the members only ever settled on Luxemburg as a compromise in OTL. This was later replaced by a split between Brussels and Strassburg, which persists to this day.)

Money and prestige would be more than enough to make the Dutch feel pretty okay about the whole thing, and when Indonesia collapses into unrest (Java trying to subdue all others by force), that'll elicit a bit of a devious Dutch chuckle, I imagine.

Down the years, the set-up I have proposed will -- for better or worse -- turn the Netherlands into the "neutral" capital of the European Union (or equivalent), and thus the USA's foremost dialogue partner in Europe. For from hostility, the long-term result could well be closer Dutch-American ties.

 

[WolfBear]

I doubt this would turn the Netherlands in any way communist, or even aligned with the USSR. The Dutch approach to international relations has always been "Quid Pro Quo". The USA pretty much screwing over the Dutch regarding the East Indies would be a major issue, but not one that couldn't be solved with the correct... compensation.

In this case, the Dutch protest would be A) "over-hasty (forced) withdrawal will be a disaster for Indonesia", and B) "you Americans are crushing our global economic prospects, even though we've been war-ravaged and are your allies".

This is by no means an unreasonable position. Note that the Dutch agreed to turn the (former) Dutch Empire (the Netherlands, Suriname, the Dutch Antilles, Indonesia and Dutch New Guinea) into a commonwealth of sovereign states with a united monarchy in 1946. This agreement was then immediately betrayed by the Indonesians, who stabbed the Dutch in the back and forcibly set out to establish a fully independent republic anyway. (Something not desired by several parts of Indonesia, which were subdued by force, and certainly not by Dutch New Guinea, which was conquered.)

If this is all forced by the USA right away, then the Dutch are faced with a fait accompli, all their holdings in the East Indies now lost. This does prevent all the OTL wrangling, betrayal, 'police actions' to try and enforce the '46 agreement... not to mention that the substantial migration on Indonesians to the Netherlands is now off the table. Relations will be pretty frosty, and the Dutch will not be letting any Indonesians immigrate, for damn sure. (Considering how the situation with the Molukkers ended up, that may ultimately be for the best. If the Indonesians want independence, let them sort out their own shit amongst themselves.)

So in the short term, the Dutch feel betrayed by the USA. They'll need to be mollified. In OTL, the Americans visiting to determine the (degree of) need for aid in Western Europe were pretty shocked by the situation in the Netherlands. It actually wasn't that bad, but they were hosted by Prime Minster Willem Drees. Now he was a Labour man, of the old guard. None of that progressive left-wing shit, and no commie crap. Just a guy who stood up for the working man. (He's beloved even by the far right in the Netherlands, to this day. He actually broke with the Labour Party late in life, when they took commie money and became ideologically insane.)

So these Americans visit him. He lives in a small house. He's got no staff. He offers them all one (1) cup of coffee with one (1) biscuit. Now that was how he lived anyway, because he was frugal like that, and doubly so because the country still had to be rebuilt and he refused to live it up while some of his countrymen were still living in tents because their homes had been bombed. Result: the Americans concluded that the Netherlands need a lot of aid, and pronto!

That's OTL. In this ATL, the Dutch can reasonably argue that their prospects are even more dire than they seemed in OTL. I think the Netherlands will get even more American aid money. I also think that the Americans would apply pressure (read: make a certain amount of aid to various countries conditional upon) the instiutions of the European Coal and Steel Community becoming located in the Netherlands. (This issue was hotly debated, and the members only ever settled on Luxemburg as a compromise in OTL. This was later replaced by a split between Brussels and Strassburg, which persists to this day.)

Money and prestige would be more than enough to make the Dutch feel pretty okay about the whole thing, and when Indonesia collapses into unrest (Java trying to subdue all others by force), that'll elicit a bit of a devious Dutch chuckle, I imagine.

Down the years, the set-up I have proposed will -- for better or worse -- turn the Netherlands into the "neutral" capital of the European Union (or equivalent), and thus the USA's foremost dialogue partner in Europe. For from hostility, the long-term result could well be closer Dutch-American ties.

Very interesting:

History of European integration (1948–1957) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Would an EU with its headquarters in the Netherlands have felt any differently about any of the major issues of the day, or of the then-future, such as EU enlargement?

 

[raharris1973]

not to mention that the substantial migration on Indonesians to the Netherlands is now off the table. Relations will be pretty frosty, and the Dutch will not be letting any Indonesians immigrate, for damn sure.

What about immigration of Eurasians or 'Indos' of partial Dutch ancestry, who were getting persecuted by full-blooded native Indonesians during and right after the war?

 

[WolfBear]

What about immigration of Eurasians or 'Indos' of partial Dutch ancestry, who were getting persecuted by full-blooded native Indonesians during and right after the war?

Those would be cool, I think. A part of the Dutch diaspora.

 

[Buba]

Netherlands going Stalinist commie seems rather unlikely ...
Netherlander frugality came as shocking to Poles. Yup, a cup of tea or coffee and not a pot, one biscut per mug and not a bowl, cheese packed and sold by the slice etc.

 

[WolfBear]

Netherlands going Stalinist commie seems rather unlikely ...
Netherlander frugality came as shocking to Poles. Yup, a cup of tea or coffee and not a pot, one biscut per mug and not a bowl, cheese packed and sold by the slice etc.

Were there a lot of Poles in the Netherlands after the end of World War II?

 

[Skallagrim]

Would an EU with its headquarters in the Netherlands have felt any differently about any of the major issues of the day, or of the then-future, such as EU enlargement?

I doubt it would be very different for any identifiable reason. The Netherlands historically acted very pro-EU, and although there was a strain of skepticism, this only broke through in the early 2000s. (And even then, the establishment just cast the popular will aside and kept supporting Brussels at all times.)

The random differences of the ATL to OTL will of course have an effect, and this might alter certain attitudes. But that wouldn't be a very direct consequence of the POD. More an indirect outcome down the line, that couldn't have been predicted at the start. So I'll not bother to attempt such predictions here.

What about immigration of Eurasians or 'Indos' of partial Dutch ancestry, who were getting persecuted by full-blooded native Indonesians during and right after the war?

Those would be cool, I think. A part of the Dutch diaspora.

Yes, the Dutch people living in Indonesia will certainly find themselves very unwelcome there, and will come back to the Netherlands. People of mixed descent will almost certainly be allowed back in as part of this wave of migration. They'll identigy as Dutch, and they'll be leaving Indonesia precisely because they don't feel it's "their country" anymore.

I expect no problems with integration there. It would be a relatively modest number, and they'd identify as Dutch to begin with.

(Ironically, there was a far smaller number of ethnically mixed people in the Netherlands before independence, and those were actually among the intellectual 'grandfathers' of the Indonesian independence movement. So they guys coming back from newly-independent Indonesia would probably hate them. Kind of like how many Cuban exiles tend to hate Marxist intellectuals in the USA.)