WI: The United States annexes Mexico, 1848

[History Learner]

Excellent analysis! That said, though, it's worth noting that this Mega-Greek state can also expand into the Constantinople suburbs on the Asian side of the Straits since they are less Muslim than the surrounding countryside:

Handling the expanded borders and ethnic/religious minorities within "Byzantium" probably precludes further expansion into Asia, and the Western powers may like to keep the Straits divided as it increases their influence and power in the region.

I wonder if Greece also gets the Dodecanese Islands here while Russia gets Ottoman Armenia, or at least its southeastern half, and also whether an independent Mount Lebanon state is created here. I'm presuming that a Palestine Mandate won't happen here since Zionism wasn't actually a huge movement among European Jewry yet, right?

It seems likely the "Byzantines" would get those islands long term, same for Russia with Armenia. The Maronites probably come under French protection, who may opt for Greater Lebanon as per OTL but with population exchanges-whether formally or informally done-to make it stick. As for the Jews, yes. A lot just depends on how this goes down; I'd be lying if I said this idea isn't inspired by my love for the Eastern Romans and seeking to match that with my main AH interest of unifying Mexico and the United States lol.

 

[WolfBear]

Religious differences and the practicalities of such make such unlikely in my estimation. Certainly though, I can see Byzantine descended aristocrats in modern Romania encouraging their subjects to resettle there, same for the Tsars with their own ethnic Greeks along with pious Slavs, etc.

Do you mean that the religious differences between Armenians and Greeks are just too large?

 

[WolfBear]

Handling the expanded borders and ethnic/religious minorities within "Byzantium" probably precludes further expansion into Asia, and the Western powers may like to keep the Straits divided as it increases their influence and power in the region.



It seems likely the "Byzantines" would get those islands long term, same for Russia with Armenia. The Maronites probably come under French protection, who may opt for Greater Lebanon as per OTL but with population exchanges-whether formally or informally done-to make it stick. As for the Jews, yes. A lot just depends on how this goes down; I'd be lying if I said this idea isn't inspired by my love for the Eastern Romans and seeking to match that with my main AH interest of unifying Mexico and the United States lol.

Yeah, FWIW, I myself am certainly an admirer of the Byzantine Empire as well, other than their habitual love of blinding people (usually political rivals, and ironically blinding them was thought of as a more humane alternative to outright murdering them). I like how the Byzantine Empire was able to resist the spread of Islam for several centuries and, along with the Franks, was thus able to protect Europe from Islam for a while. Had Constantinople fell in, say, 717-718, I fear that most of Europe could have become Muslim by now, especially if Charles Martel would have also lost his battle at Tours.

In regards to unifying Mexico and the US, let's just say that first we should need to focus on reducing Mexican average criminality and increasing Mexican average IQs to US levels. Then we can indeed talk about unification! FWIW, I admire Mexico. For a country with a low average IQ and very high criminality (murder, et cetera), it actually managed to make something out of itself. It's certainly wealthier than most of the developing world, after all--sometimes much wealthier!

 

[History Learner]

Do you mean that the religious differences between Armenians and Greeks are just too large?

In general, no, but in terms of this setting, yes; they already have to manage the different ethnicities united by Orthodoxy as well as the large Muslim minority; adding in Armenians with their different Christianity adds further complications the state doesn't need.

 

[WolfBear]

In general, no, but in terms of this setting, yes; they already have to manage the different ethnicities united by Orthodoxy as well as the large Muslim minority; adding in Armenians with their different Christianity adds further complications the state doesn't need.

It could still be useful as a way of further diluting the Muslim percentage in this new state, no?

 

[History Learner]

It could still be useful as a way of further diluting the Muslim percentage in this new state, no?

In an absolute terms, yes, but more expulsions, conversions, etc do too and the Balkan states used those in abundance already historically and I see no reason they wouldn't here. A fair amount of ethnic Slavs and Albanians were Hellenized historically, while a lot of Turkic and Slavic Muslims got expulsed for example.

 

[WolfBear]

In an absolute terms, yes, but more expulsions, conversions, etc do too and the Balkan states used those in abundance already historically and I see no reason they wouldn't here. A fair amount of ethnic Slavs and Albanians were Hellenized historically, while a lot of Turkic and Slavic Muslims got expulsed for example.

Yeah, fair point. It depends on just how heavy one would want to be with the forced expulsions, conversions, et cetera, I suppose.

BTW, does Greece acquire Smyrna in this TL? It claimed it after the end of WWI in real life due to its large Greek population. It's not located directly on the Straits.

 

[History Learner]

Yeah, fair point. It depends on just how heavy one would want to be with the forced expulsions, conversions, et cetera, I suppose.

BTW, does Greece acquire Smyrna in this TL? It claimed it after the end of WWI in real life due to its large Greek population. It's not located directly on the Straits.

Have no idea and so far I'm not entirely sure what I think would definitely happen; this is all just a possible path I see depending on how one wants to play around with things. Certainly it is my preferred path, as I noted earlier.

 

[WolfBear]

Have no idea and so far I'm not entirely sure what I think would definitely happen; this is all just a possible path I see depending on how one wants to play around with things. Certainly it is my preferred path, as I noted earlier.

Interesting. Of course, it would be cool if some local Greek noble actually acquired the Greek throne, but that's probably unrealistic at this point in time since Greece was already independent for several decades by then, right?

 

[History Learner]

Interesting. Of course, it would be cool if some local Greek noble actually acquired the Greek throne, but that's probably unrealistic at this point in time since Greece was already independent for several decades by then, right?

Given the prominence of the Phanariots in the Greek Revolution and the Danuban States, it's at least possible. IIRC, many also claimed descent from the Byzantine Empire's old elite, especially the Komnenos.

 

[WolfBear]

Given the prominence of the Phanariots in the Greek Revolution and the Danuban States, it's at least possible. IIRC, many also claimed descent from the Byzantine Empire's old elite, especially the Komnenos.

Interesting. So, why did they choose a foreign king?

 

[History Learner]

Interesting. So, why did they choose a foreign king?

Circumstances, internal disorder and foreign influence. I'm not well versed in the Greek Revolution to give you a comprehensive, well informed answer.

 

[WolfBear]

Circumstances, internal disorder and foreign influence. I'm not well versed in the Greek Revolution to give you a comprehensive, well informed answer.

Gotcha.

Anyway, FWIW, here's an interesting idea:

Have Greece suggest as much as you expand but also have A-H and Russia partition the rest of the Balkans between the two of them. Would that actually be realistic? Some present-day Russian nationalists believe that countries have no right to exist if they're not accomplished:

Who Gets Self-Determination?

...

astralcodexten.substack.com

 

[History Learner]

Gotcha.

Anyway, FWIW, here's an interesting idea:

Have Greece suggest as much as you expand but also have A-H and Russia partition the rest of the Balkans between the two of them. Would that actually be realistic? Some present-day Russian nationalists believe that countries have no right to exist if they're not accomplished:

Who Gets Self-Determination?

...

astralcodexten.substack.com

Karlin is quite the character, I enjoy reading his articles and some thoughts he's put forward have influenced my own perceptions. Putting that aside to, well, the side, specific as it comes to what happens in the Balkans there's a lot to debate about there.

If the Anglo-Ottomans lose to the Russians, I think the terms will be pretty simple; Russia vassalizes Moldova and Wallachia, affirms its position as the Protector of Ottoman Christians. Much more, in the short term, seems unlikely otherwise Britain will continue the fight and might be able to get France into it if it continues long enough. The 1849 or 1850 Ausgleich will keep Austro-Hungary at bay for some time as the domestic situation is sorted out, but by the late 1850s I suspect they will be back in play and if the Erfurt Union is successful, so too will the new German Empire. From there, how things shake out is less clear.

 

[Sergeant Foley]

Ehh not so sure about that.

While Mexico was anti slavery, it was anti slavery on paper. Latin American nations are extraordinarily hardcore about class and caste.

"Los que nacen de abajo tienen que quedarse abajo, hay que saber su lugar por su puesto" - An Argentine progressive of the 1900s when asked if she was in favor of the mixing of society.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Mexicans business class and the criollos support and fund and encourage secession as a sword of damocles to force the Whigs and later Republicans to keep the abolitionists out of power because of a belief that Abos would try and force apart the barriers between the roles using black men to do it.

I don't know if the ACW would actually happen bu the US.might look very different because of this.

Big question is whether Mexico being annexed makes Texas one of the largest states in the Union with the possibility of getting more than 254 counties?

 

[WolfBear]

Big question is whether Mexico being annexed makes Texas one of the largest states in the Union with the possibility of getting more than 254 counties?

Probably not since Texas's natural southern border was always at the Rio Grande River, no?

 

[strunkenwhite]

Big question is whether Mexico being annexed makes Texas one of the largest states in the Union with the possibility of getting more than 254 counties?

My gut feeling is that the Rio Grande is too good of a dividing line, much like the Ohio River. Plus, the rest of Mexico would have been taken after the war, while Texas was annexed before (and was the cause of) the war. So the river has already seen service as a border.

 

[Sergeant Foley]

Probably not since Texas's natural southern border was always at the Rio Grande River, no?

Would New Mexico and Arizona get more counties if Mexico was fully annexed by the US?

 

[The Immortal Watch Dog]

Big question is whether Mexico being annexed makes Texas one of the largest states in the Union with the possibility of getting more than 254 counties?

Nah, they would break it up into six or seven different states. Both to limit the power of Texas and to mitigate the kind of power a state as massive of Mexico would wield.

Although, it would be interesting to see how elections go in the future and the "South Western" and "Southern States" would end up being far more electorally and politically decisive than say the Northern ones.

 

[WolfBear]

Karlin is quite the character, I enjoy reading his articles and some thoughts he's put forward have influenced my own perceptions. Putting that aside to, well, the side, specific as it comes to what happens in the Balkans there's a lot to debate about there.

If the Anglo-Ottomans lose to the Russians, I think the terms will be pretty simple; Russia vassalizes Moldova and Wallachia, affirms its position as the Protector of Ottoman Christians. Much more, in the short term, seems unlikely otherwise Britain will continue the fight and might be able to get France into it if it continues long enough. The 1849 or 1850 Ausgleich will keep Austro-Hungary at bay for some time as the domestic situation is sorted out, but by the late 1850s I suspect they will be back in play and if the Erfurt Union is successful, so too will the new German Empire. From there, how things shake out is less clear.

The Erfurt Union did not involve Austria, right?

And what about having Russia outright annex Moldavia?