ISOT WI: All landlocked nations are transported to 1919

Yes. I do believe that Czechia and Slovakia and Austria would intervene to save Warsaw if Lukachenko supported the Red Army offensive toward Berlin to save the German socialists. Of course, with all the reserve tanks, APCs and trucks activated or requisitioned, the Belarusians are incredibly dangerous--as long as they have fuel.
So basically we get another war in Europe, Bolivia and Paraguay go to settle old scores, Mongolia will need to form an alliance to survive this event, and the Stans are basically a wildcard? I guess Nepal. Bhutan, and Laos are just the odd ones out, given they can't really do much of anything then.
 
So basically we get another war in Europe, Bolivia and Paraguay go to settle old scores, Mongolia will need to form an alliance to survive this event, and the Stans are basically a wildcard? I guess Nepal. Bhutan, and Laos are just the odd ones out, given they can't really do much of anything then.

It's at least somewhat possible the Stans could intervene to defeat Lenin and Lukachenko, but there are a lot of permutations to this. So, basically.

Laos... Probably can trade through Thailand exactly like it does in uptime, and the French should be cautious enough not to start something.
 
It's at least somewhat possible the Stans could intervene to defeat Lenin and Lukachenko, but there are a lot of permutations to this. So, basically.

Laos... Probably can trade through Thailand exactly like it does in uptime, and the French should be cautious enough not to start something.
Since we've gotten what happens in the past out of the way, how do you see this effecting modern day? With a decent portion of central Europe gone, the old Soviet republics, and Mongolia, do you see them getting annexed in the future?
 
Since we've gotten what happens in the past out of the way, how do you see this effecting modern day? With a decent portion of central Europe gone, the old Soviet republics, and Mongolia, do you see them getting annexed in the future?

Mongolia is under military occupation by General Xu Shuzheng. The government of the Bogd Khanate however is intact, and Xu Shuzheng was a member of the Anhui Clique. However, there is one Mongolian and two Buryat regiments near Dauria loyal to Semyonov. Xu Shuzheng is likely to ask for assistance when he realises what has happened--from the Republic of China.

I doubt the ROC is going to send troops into Mongolia since this would re-start the Chinese Civil War. In that circumstance, with White Russian Buryat troops near the capital, and Xu Shuzheng himself aware he would probably be disappeared if the PLA took Niislel Khüree, I would expect that he would ask for the Russians and Putin would duly have Spetsnaz deploy into Niislel Khüree to secure the capital to help Xu Shuzheng and stabilise the Mongolian Bogd Khanate. The question is whether or not Xi thinks it worthwhile to risk a serious confrontation on China's northern frontier by trying to rush troops there first.

It might turn into the lowest point in Russo-Sinic relations since the 1960s.

Central Asia is just a bloody mess -- right now as of 1 December a massive battle is about to break out at Kazan-Jika between Red and White forces in what would be Turkmenistan; there is both the White Army and about 12,000 basmachi warriors sent by the Dictator who was de facto ruling the Khanate of Khiva; the Emir of Bukhara also has a substantial army in the field which was not defeated until much later as an anti-communist force. The White troops in the Krasnovodsk area will certainly ask for Russian intervention. Putin will probably present this as a peacekeeping force. Both Khiva and Bukhara, conversely, will certainly declare independence and ask for the UN to recognise them.

Mikhail Frunze, however, is in command of the Red Army operating under the auspices of the Tashkent Soviet. The "Ush - Horde" is the government of the Kazakhs operating in conjunction with the Soviet Power, and the main power of the White government was broken, but substantial pro-white forces including Basmachi guerrillas, pro-white Kazakh hosts, and the Oral Cossack Host are still in heavy combat in northern areas of Kazakhstan. Madamin Bey has formed a joint Russo-Tajik state in the Ferghana valley under the auspices of the Basmachi movement which is, at that point, still resisting the Soviet Power (Madamin Bey ultimately switched sides, but not until March of 1920 historically).

Ironically, Afghanistan is still after the conclusion of the Anglo-Afghan War in August of 1919, and under the Emir, will be, frankly, better off than it has been for decades OTL. Nepal and Bhutan will also be quiet countries without significant problems and I think the hereditary Viziers in Nepal might be inclined to look more realistically at the situation of modernity....

French Laos, of course, will be its own problem, but one I can see the French government actually taking responsibility for the decolonisation of. If not, the Thais may move in as peacekeepers and prop up the indigenous monarchy which is presently under French suzerainty.

Bolivia and Paraguay will be barely more backward than they already are. Honestly, the trains will still be running and the British owned river and lake steamers will still operate, so their transportation networks might be more functional...

In Europe, chaos, recession, disorder. Zaolzie has Polish troops in it, but in uptime Europe was legally part of Czechia. Belarus... Is more or less under Polish occupation, and has substantial Polish minorities as noted. Czech troops are firing on German demonstrators in the Sudentenland, though of course Merkel won't do anything about it.

The Romanian occupation Army in Hungary, however... I would expect the uptime Habsburgs to rally for demands that the uptime Romanian state pull them back. This scenario might ironically lead to a Habsburg restoration in Hungary, but less likely in Austria. Trianon has not been signed yet, and that means that the situation between Hungary and Serbia will be tense over Voivodina, while the Serbs will feel, considering the threat of losing Macedonia and Kosovo, put upon by the world.

Did I mention the EU will be in a massive recession?

Also the very large number of Romanian troops occupying Hungary will, as they withdraw back to Romania, probably destabilise the country with right-wing views and monarchism.
 
Also: The Azeri Democratic Republic and the Democratic Republic of Armenia are involved in heavy fighting with each other and the situation will be much, much worse than it was over Artsakh. Nasib Yusifbeyli is the current PM of the ADR, and there is a significant pro-communist element threatening a coup d'etat.
 
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Also: The Azeri Democratic Republic and the Democratic Republic of Armenia are involved in heavy fighting with each other and the situation will be much, much worse than it was over Artsakh. Nasib Yusifbeyli is the current PM of the ADR, and there is a significant pro-communist element threatening a coup d'etat.
I appreciate you replying by the way, especially since you know quite a bit about this period of history and can help explain what's going on at the time.

So just ballparking it, we're looking at at least 100-200k men in central Europe and Asia fighting each other, right?
 
For the anti-communist forces in Central Asia: 30,000 Basmachi overall in Turkestan, 10,000 Whites in the Krasnovodsk area, maybe another 8,000, primarily tribal horsemen and the Oral Host, in northeastern Kazakhstan, 12,000 troops of the Khivan Khanate, and about 20,000 loyalists to the Emir of Bukhara around Samarkand.

For the Soviet Power in Central Asia: 120,000 troops including militias and loyal tribal fighting bands but also including a core of 30,000 - 40,000 or so experienced veterans of the Tashkent Soviet under Mikhail Frunze and 10,000 around Merv, mostly former railway troops and employees. Another 40,000 or so loosely aligned tribal hosts for 160,000 in all.

There are at least 96,000 Romanian troops of occupation in Hungary.


Hard fighting over Nakchivan and Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) also results in at least 42,000 massacred civilians in this period; counting irregulars there's probably at least 100,000 combatants in the area, though Azerbaijan had a regular military of corps strength led by former Russian Imperial officers, and Armenia a division likewise.
 
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You're assuming there aren't a bunch of spare 1970s Soviet military satellites sitting in a rotting wooden warehouse...
 
@PsihoKekec true. I think that as for uptime, a peace based on ethnic lines can be secured between Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Serbia. This would be slightly more favourable than the historical Trianon to Hungary. A bigger issue will be enforcing some kind of autonomy for the Sudeten Germans. Kosovo and Macedonia are nonissues and maybe the Kingdom will be smart enough to keep them that way.

This is unlike the war raging in the Caucasus and the great likelihood of sustained fighting in Belarus.
 
You're assuming there aren't a bunch of spare 1970s Soviet military satellites sitting in a rotting wooden warehouse...
There are quite a few warehouses and factories even in Russia that hold old space shuttles and satellites, but with how long they've been neglected, they'd be expensive paperweights and nothing more. Regardless though, Kazakhstan will have a leg up in space technology. The central Europeans would be desperate to catch up, because satellites are an out of context problem for the rest of the world in 1919.
 
There are quite a few warehouses and factories even in Russia that hold old space shuttles and satellites, but with how long they've been neglected, they'd be expensive paperweights and nothing more. Regardless though, Kazakhstan will have a leg up in space technology. The central Europeans would be desperate to catch up, because satellites are an out of context problem for the rest of the world in 1919.

Well, it depends.... A lot of the parts may be in a sense "useless" in their current configuration, but they're still precision-machined rocket parts, and therefore incredibly useful.
 
Well, it depends.... A lot of the parts may be in a sense "useless" in their current configuration, but they're still precision-machined rocket parts, and therefore incredibly useful.
Kazakhstan's main problem will be getting enough components together to actually get a rocket and satellite onto orbit. Once that's done, they will hold an advantage over the rest of the world. Even the central Europeans might try and work with them in exchange for getting a few of their own up. Makes me wonder if Mongolia and Ethiopia might end up joining as well to not only solidify their own positions, but to forge a much better world than they had.
 
Kazakhstan's main problem will be getting enough components together to actually get a rocket and satellite onto orbit. Once that's done, they will hold an advantage over the rest of the world. Even the central Europeans might try and work with them in exchange for getting a few of their own up. Makes me wonder if Mongolia and Ethiopia might end up joining as well to not only solidify their own positions, but to forge a much better world than they had.


The problem right now is that the natural trade route between all nations is the Sea. These countries don't have access to it. That's why I think Mongolia's democracy will end up playing around in Manchuria anyway, it's just too much of an imperative with no uptime seafairing nations around them to trade with. For that matter, intervening in the chaos in Iran in 1919 would be Central Asia and the Trans-Kavkaz's best shot at sea access, but that has considerable diplomatic implications with the British. But a Russian-gauge railway to the Caspian would help.
 
The problem right now is that the natural trade route between all nations is the Sea. These countries don't have access to it. That's why I think Mongolia's democracy will end up playing around in Manchuria anyway, it's just too much of an imperative with no uptime seafairing nations around them to trade with. For that matter, intervening in the chaos in Iran in 1919 would be Central Asia and the Trans-Kavkaz's best shot at sea access, but that has considerable diplomatic implications with the British. But a Russian-gauge railway to the Caspian would help.
It'll certainly piss of the British, but once they get the gist of what just happened, and what they'll be facing if they try and fight, they won't have much of a choice in the matter. Besides, I think Britain will be more focused on Afghanistan due to current issues there, as well as the uptime NATO forces that will need help from them.
 
It'll certainly piss of the British, but once they get the gist of what just happened, and what they'll be facing if they try and fight, they won't have much of a choice in the matter. Besides, I think Britain will be more focused on Afghanistan due to current issues there, as well as the uptime NATO forces that will need help from them.

Afghanistan is just a giant boiling problem. The question is if political Islam infects India, or scares the Pakistan advocates straight, so to speak, when they see what it's brought to Afghanistan. Kazakhstan would be seen as a better model for an Islamic country by all of them, at least.

The Caliph hasn't been deposed yet and there may be considerably more pressure to keep him around to combat extremist tendencies in Islam. Heck, an Imperial Irade from the Caliph may actually be the basis of negotiations in Afghanistan at that point. The entire situation around Sevres will be made bankrupt because the Central Asian countries and Azerbaijan will be sympathetic to Turkey.

The only other observation I can make is that, generally, I expect any scenario like this to see a major uptick in religious profession, because the only rational interpretation for it is that God did it as a message to the world and demonstration of power. So I tend to credit a conservative trend after ISOTs. Particularly something so specific; a random accident should transfer a sphere of essentially random positioning.

But really it isn't about anyone annexing Iran--though Azerbaijan may want Iranian Azerbaijan and that will be hard to stop them from getting. Really if they can just stabilise Iran and build a railway through it that will help. Though connecting the Central Asian network via Mongolia to Manchuria is the other option that would be coming together.
 
Afghanistan is just a giant boiling problem. The question is if political Islam infects India, or scares the Pakistan advocates straight, so to speak, when they see what it's brought to Afghanistan. Kazakhstan would be seen as a better model for an Islamic country by all of them, at least.

The Caliph hasn't been deposed yet and there may be considerably more pressure to keep him around to combat extremist tendencies in Islam. Heck, an Imperial Irade from the Caliph may actually be the basis of negotiations in Afghanistan at that point. The entire situation around Sevres will be made bankrupt because the Central Asian countries and Azerbaijan will be sympathetic to Turkey.

The only other observation I can make is that, generally, I expect any scenario like this to see a major uptick in religious profession, because the only rational interpretation for it is that God did it as a message to the world and demonstration of power. So I tend to credit a conservative trend after ISOTs. Particularly something so specific; a random accident should transfer a sphere of essentially random positioning.

But really it isn't about anyone annexing Iran--though Azerbaijan may want Iranian Azerbaijan and that will be hard to stop them from getting. Really if they can just stabilise Iran and build a railway through it that will help. Though connecting the Central Asian network via Mongolia to Manchuria is the other option that would be coming together.
Given the information the uptimers will bringing with them, especially with Mongolia, do you see The RoC ever being overthrown by Mao, or would he basically be screwed if he tried that? Or the Japanese plans for expansion when America, Europe, and China find out what's waiting in the early 30's?
 
Given the information the uptimers will bringing with them, especially with Mongolia, do you see The RoC ever being overthrown by Mao, or would he basically be screwed if he tried that? Or the Japanese plans for expansion when America, Europe, and China find out what's waiting in the early 30's?

I think there might be a rash of assassinations. Trotsky for example is at the height of his power as the Commissar of War, do you think he's going to let Stalin live? Mao may be targeted by the Republicans for assassination as well. German national conservatives may, in fact, seeing what WW2 did to their country, gun down Hitler, and we could see the movement led by others instead who can speak to addressing its problems. I think many people in 1919 would be horrified by the course the modern world has taken. You might see a massive support for the Israel movement from those who were lukewarm OTL since they have proof of the faithlessness of gentiles toward integrated Jews in Germany.
 
I think there might be a rash of assassinations. Trotsky for example is at the height of his power as the Commissar of War, do you think he's going to let Stalin live? Mao may be targeted by the Republicans for assassination as well. German national conservatives may, in fact, seeing what WW2 did to their country, gun down Hitler, and we could see the movement led by others instead who can speak to addressing its problems. I think many people in 1919 would be horrified by the course the modern world has taken. You might see a massive support for the Israel movement from those who were lukewarm OTL since they have proof of the faithlessness of gentiles toward integrated Jews in Germany.
How do you think this would effect America and the rest of the Anglo sphere? With America becoming the strongest nation, the civil rights movement, our foreign entanglements, and the decline of European power? Do you think the British and French will double down on what they have? Or that China might straighten itself out to become an economic power even sooner?
 
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Wonder how long it'll take to get a recon satellite made and launched, especially after being cut off from the rest of the world.
 

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