ISOT What if post-Feb 1917 revolution/Provisional Government Russia is ISOT *forward* in time?

[raharris1973]

What if post-Feb 1917 revolution/Provisional Government Russia is ISOT *forward* in time?

Imagine if it is pretty much the entirety of Russia, those parts unoccupied by Central Powers, from May 1st 1917. The "governance" situation, such as it is, actually "dual power" between the Provisional Government and Petrograd Soviet. As Premier of the Provisional Government, it is actually not yet Alexander Kerensky, the first leader to come to mind - Prince Georgi Lvov is Premier. Lenin arrived back in the country about two weeks earlier.

I am imagining two different version of the scenario of how far forward into the future this Russia goes to:

Scenario A: This Russia goes forward exactly one year to May 1st, 1918, to the astonishment of the receiving world. Central Powers and Entente (& Associated) Powers are equally amazed at the supernatural event. The Bolshevik Revolution and Peace of Brest-Litovsk have been undone, by act of G-d or something supernatural or inexplicable, while the Germans are still in the middle of the spring 1918 western offensive.

Good news for the Entente & Associated Powers: They have an ally on the eastern front once more, in place of the defecting, faithless revolutionary regime that exposed embarrassing diplomatic secrets. Bad news- Any envoys, diplomats, emissaries or interventionary troops (not many yet), or forces activated like the Czech Legion, are "overwritten" by 1917 history and disappear.

Bad news for Central Powers: They have just lost all the territories conceded to them as occupation zones or puppet states by the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk from Russia, except which they held as of May 1, 1917, plus any occupation forces east or north of the battle lines of that day.

Good news for Russia: They exist in May 1, 1918 without a Bolshevik takeover or Civil War, with German and Austrian and Ottoman lines in front of them that are not especially strong (because in 1918 they were not the front lines any more), and with the great bulk of German forces committed to the western front and Austrian forces committed to the Italian and Balkan fronts, against Allied forces whose American and British Empire components are ever growing.

Bad news for Russia: Russia is still deposited in the middle of WWI actively going on. May 1918 is closer to the war's November 1918 end than May 1917 is for sure, but it is still far from clear that Russia has six more months of war endurance left in it, or even four or five months [because its sudden reappearance will be bad for CP morale and quite probable hasten CP collapse]. The more moderate Socialists in control of the May 1917 version of the Petrograd Soviet, and the May 1917 leaders of the Provisional Government, can also be made rapidly aware, by uptime western interlocutors, of Lenin's takeover tactics, his Bolsheviks' dispersal of the vaunted Constituent Assembly in Jan 1918, and the humiliating concessions to Germany they made at Brest-Litovsk and the outbreak of Civil War, which should make Lenin and the Bolsheviks *very unpopular* to Russians with a May 1917 frame of mind. They would also become aware of the improprieties of others, like Lavr Kornilov.

What happens in the months after this May 1918, with Provisional Government Russia's second chance? Can Russia avoid a second, radical revolution, Leninist Bolshevik or otherwise? Can it stay in the war until Central Powers capitulation? When in 1918 would Central Powers capitulation occur?

What happens differently postwar?

And now for the second:

Scenario B: This Russia (from May 1, 1917) goes forward four years, to May 1, 1921, just a little while after the conclusion of the Soviet-Polish Peace of Riga and Soviet reincorporation of Georgia.


Geographically speaking, the May, 1917 Russia portions only come forward to "overwrite" territory that had become Soviet as of May 1921, not areas that had become successor states inheriting outlying pieces of former Russian Empire territory, like the Second Polish Republic, Finland, the Baltic States, Romania, Ataturk's Republic of Turkey, etc.

Good news for Russia/USSR's interwar neighbors: They get to exist, at least for the moment, with their territory intact.

Good news for the Russian Provisional Government: Through this ISOT, it has "fast-forwarded" to a Europe and globe that is more generally at peace, with WWI definitely over, and not have that millstone around its neck as a major stressor. Bad news - It has lost some territory and frontline troops who do not fit within the ISOT'ed "footprint". It should be able to proceed with the Constituent Assembly and desired domestic reforms with all deliberate speed. The Constituent Assembly of OTL overwhelmingly elected parties within a Socialist spectrum. How would Socialist politics fare under peacetime condition? Would Russia be completely safe from radical leftist dictatorial revolution/takeover in a situation where the WWI factor has been made irrelevant?

 

[Buba]

I don't like scenarios with many duplicated people. All those A-H and German POWs sent back after B-L Treaty, all those displaced people in Russia, who fled the Germans ...
This includes my grandfather of whom, in 1921, there are two. One in Mohilev, another in Ostrołęka.

 

[ATP]

Well,you forget Trocky.Wall Street send him to made revolution,so he would do that.
But,let assume,that he somehow die.
Russia avoided revolution,but still could not fight.

And,you forget,that Entante wonted big Russia,not some free states.With Russia still existing,there would be no Poland,Baltic states, or Finland.Allies would gave us to Moscov.

Probably agree to partition of Turkey,too - in OTL Greece alone almost defeated them,but here ,with Russia help...they always dream about Constantinopole,now it would turn real.

Still better then soviet rule.

 

[raharris1973]

I don't like scenarios with many duplicated people. All those A-H and German POWs sent back after B-L Treaty, all those displaced people in Russia, who fled the Germans ...

Tough luck. This ASB is an inconsiderate jerk.

Boy oh boy, Central and Eastern Europe just got a population increase. There are duplicates of people who were PoWs. Also, some people coming back from the dead.

Two versions of the same men with the claim to the same property, wife and families. Many headaches. Some men will murder themselves or their "time twins". Some will become business partners. Some who are kinky or can fake it or don't care what people think might live bigamously or polyandrously, splitting the shopwork, farmwork, business, factory gigs and sexy time with the wife between them and their time twin.

This includes my grandfather of whom, in 1921, there are two. One in Mohilev, another in Ostrołęka.

Nothing personal against him. I would hope the two of him would only meet each other if they could handle it well.

Well,you forget Trocky.Wall Street send him to made revolution,so he would do that.

Leaders need followers, so "Trocky's" success isn't guaranteed

But,let assume,that he somehow die.

Successfully pulling off a revolution requires a *little* bit more than just being alive.

Russia avoided revolution,but still could not fight.

Maybe it had no fighting left in it, which would be relevant in the first version of the scenario, where it is ISOT only one year ahead to 1918.

At the same time, OTL's record shows the Entente did not *need* Russia to be fighting by then to win, so even by standing around, without really fighting, just not having a revolution and not making peace with Germany, this Russia gets to go to the trophy ceremony at the end of the war. Woo-hoo.

And,you forget,that Entante wonted big Russia,not some free states.With Russia still existing,there would be no Poland,Baltic states, or Finland.Allies would gave us to Moscov.

I didn't forget shit. Yeah, without Bolshevik territories, revolution few or no territories will break off from legacy Russian Empire territory. The Allies had no prior commitment to create Baltic States or Finland. By Jan 1918, Wilson among the Allies had spoken of an independent Poland in the 14 Points, and other Allied leaders had talked about Polish independence, self-government, or autonomy - including some Russians. And if the Russians are incapable of actually fighting the Germans and Austrians, they will remain in occupation of Russian Poland (and Lithuania, and Courland) until the western front makes Germany capitulate. So the Russians can try to reclaim their prewar Polish territories or an expanded version at the end of the war, but the weak democratic republic with social chaos may not have the will to enforce a Russian reclamation.

And in the ISOT from 1917 to 1921, the 1921 versions of all these western fringe formerly Russian Empire countries remain in place, and the west had become vested in their existence, so Provisional Government Russia with its PG and Soviets would be faced with a fait accompli and as a weak democratic republic with social chaos would have trouble asking its people to go back to war to bring Finland, the Baltics, Poland, Bessarabia back into the Russian fold.

 

[ATP]

Tough luck. This ASB is an inconsiderate jerk.

Boy oh boy, Central and Eastern Europe just got a population increase. There are duplicates of people who were PoWs. Also, some people coming back from the dead.

Two versions of the same men with the claim to the same property, wife and families. Many headaches. Some men will murder themselves or their "time twins". Some will become business partners. Some who are kinky or can fake it or don't care what people think might live bigamously or polyandrously, splitting the shopwork, farmwork, business, factory gigs and sexy time with the wife between them and their time twin.

Yes,it would be not funny.

Nothing personal against him. I would hope the two of him would only meet each other if they could handle it well.


Leaders need followers, so "Trocky's" success isn't guaranteed

Wall Street send him with moneys and band of followers - and,since he was hero of 1905 revolution,workers would follow him.

Successfully pulling off a revolution requires a *little* bit more than just being alive.

He was genocider and commie,but able and charismatic one.In OTL he win revolution,not coward Lenin.

Maybe it had no fighting left in it, which would be relevant in the first version of the scenario, where it is ISOT only one year ahead to 1918.

At the same time, OTL's record shows the Entente did not *need* Russia to be fighting by then to win, so even by standing around, without really fighting, just not having a revolution and not making peace with Germany, this Russia gets to go to the trophy ceremony at the end of the war. Woo-hoo.

You are right here.

I didn't forget shit. Yeah, without Bolshevik territories, revolution few or no territories will break off from legacy Russian Empire territory. The Allies had no prior commitment to create Baltic States or Finland. By Jan 1918, Wilson among the Allies had spoken of an independent Poland in the 14 Points, and other Allied leaders had talked about Polish independence, self-government, or autonomy - including some Russians. And if the Russians are incapable of actually fighting the Germans and Austrians, they will remain in occupation of Russian Poland (and Lithuania, and Courland) until the western front makes Germany capitulate. So the Russians can try to reclaim their prewar Polish territories or an expanded version at the end of the war, but the weak democratic republic with social chaos may not have the will to enforce a Russian reclamation.

And in the ISOT from 1917 to 1921, the 1921 versions of all these western fringe formerly Russian Empire countries remain in place, and the west had become vested in their existence, so Provisional Government Russia with its PG and Soviets would be faced with a fait accompli and as a weak democratic republic with social chaos would have trouble asking its people to go back to war to bring Finland, the Baltics, Poland, Bessarabia back into the Russian fold.

Well,Wilson wonted small Poland depending on democratic Russia - so,we would be screwed.
But,if it was ISOT to 1921,you are right - we have weak democratic Russia,which could do notching to reclaim its "lost territories"

But,it also mean ISOT of soviet Russia from 1921 to 1917 - AND,IT WOULD BE BIG CHANGE.
Soviets still do not have strong army - germans still beat them here - but,white are arleady defeated,and only fight is in Tambow gubernia when partisants fought them,and on Siberia,where Japan hold part of it,as well as USA.

So,soviets here - after being beaten by germans - could wait and take Poland afer german capitulation.
What next? if french army mutiny and join them,they have Europe.
If not,they are beaten back to Moscov and destroyed.
To be honest,dunno what is more likely.