What If Patton was allowed to close the Falaise pocket?

[sillygoose]

As it says on the tin: what if Patton wasn't stopped and allowed to close the Falaise pocket so that virtually no German troops escaped?

Falaise pocket - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Third Army advance from the south made good progress on 12 August; Alençon was captured and Kluge was forced to commit troops he had been gathering for a counter-attack. The next day, the US 5th Armored Division of the US XV Corps advanced 35 mi (56 km) and reached positions overlooking Argentan.[41] On 13 August, Bradley over-ruled orders by Patton for a further push northwards towards Falaise by the 5th Armored Division.[41] Bradley instead ordered the XV Corps to "concentrate for operations in another direction".[42] The US troops near Argentan were ordered to withdraw, which ended the pincer movement by the XV Corps.[43] Patton objected but complied, which left an exit for the German forces in the Falaise pocket.[43][nb 5]

[nb5] Bradley later received much blame for "failing" to exploit the opportunity to envelop Army Group B.[41] General Hans Speidel, Chief of Staff of Army Group B, wrote that they would have been eliminated, if the 5th Armored Division had continued its advance to Falaise, although D'Este wrote that the order came from Montgomery.[43][44]

How much sooner could the war have been ended? It is estimated about 50,000 men escaped from the pocket IOTL. Including the II SS Panzer corps, which would have had profound impacts on Market Garden. Could the war have ended in 1944? Would Yalta have been radically different if the Wallies had managed to bounce the Rhine and cut off the 15th army, forcing its surrender in October?

 

[WolfBear]

If Operation Market Garden succeeds, could all of Germany west of the Oder-Neisse Line have ended up under Allied occupation after the end of World War II?

 

[PsihoKekec]

The problem is that American troops would be stretched thin and low on supplies due to convoluted supply lines, so it's quite likely that many German troops would still break through, overrunning part of the blocking force, just as Bradley feared. I don't have maps available here, but from what I remember the II SS Panzer Corps was already West of the Argentan by this point and would have probably be used to try and break the blockade (like in OTL) and fight rearguard actions afterwards.

Could the war have ended in 1944?

No, Germans losing 50.000 is but a drop in the bucket compared to overall casualties the Germans suffered in the Summer and Autumn of 1944, also supply situation simply wouldn't allow for it

Would Yalta have been radically different if the Wallies had managed to bounce the Rhine and cut off the 15th army, forcing its surrender in October?

No, the Wallies still needed Stalin for war with Japan and were thus willing to appease him.

If Operation Market Garden succeeds, could all of Germany west of the Oder-Neisse Line have ended up under Allied occupation after the end of World War II?

If Market Garden succeeds, then the Wallies have a bridgehead over the Rhine that they can't exploit at the moment due to lack of reserves and insufficient supplies, which means Germans have time pull forces from other fronts to contain them.

 

[WolfBear]

If Market Garden succeeds, then the Wallies have a bridgehead over the Rhine that they can't exploit at the moment due to lack of reserves and insufficient supplies, which means Germans have time pull forces from other fronts to contain them.

Gotcha. That said, though, does a successful Market Garden = no Ardennes Offensive in the winter of 1944-1945 by the Nazis?

 

[PsihoKekec]

It depends on what forces they have remaining at that time, it's possible they go for one of the less ambitious alternatives instead.

 

[WolfBear]

It depends on what forces they have remaining at that time, it's possible they go for one of the less ambitious alternatives instead.

What were these alternatives?

 

[PsihoKekec]

Both Model and Rundstedt came up with a plan to launch a smaller counteroffensive in Ardennes region with goal of destroying local forces instead of futile ride to Antwerp. Of course planning only came to preliminary stages, due to Hitler being adamant that only the big one is acceptable.

 

[WolfBear]

Both Model and Rundstedt came up with a plan to launch a smaller counteroffensive in Ardennes region with goal of destroying local forces instead of futile ride to Antwerp. Of course planning only came to preliminary stages, due to Hitler being adamant that only the big one is acceptable.

Any idea how the smaller counteroffensive would have went?

 

[PsihoKekec]

It depends how far they go, if it's fairly shallow then they can smash up several divisions and capture/destroy supplies in rear areas without suffering too heavy casualties. If they go too far, their logistics will hamstrung them and they will suffer heavier casualties as result.

 

[sillygoose]

The problem is that American troops would be stretched thin and low on supplies due to convoluted supply lines, so it's quite likely that many German troops would still break through, overrunning part of the blocking force, just as Bradley feared. I don't have maps available here, but from what I remember the II SS Panzer Corps was already West of the Argentan by this point and would have probably be used to try and break the blockade (like in OTL) and fight rearguard actions afterwards.

I've seen several maps that make the situation confusing, since they all show different positions of divisions in the pocket.
This is the one I'm going off of, which is the most detailed I could find for when Argentan was taken by the French 2nd Armored:

To be clear the French took Argentan on the 14th. This map shows the situation only as early as the 16th in light green. The dark green is from the 19th, several days after Patton was ordered to halt. On the 16th II SS Panzer Corps was quite a bit further west and only got close to Argentan as of the 18th IIRC.

Though there is an argument about the weakness of Patton's forces relative to the threat that is only considering ground forces, not the Tactical Air Command that was supporting them. Patton's forces were highly effectively due to the combined air-ground-intelligence teams that worked together to have a surprisingly outsized impact on the events on the ground. So if the route out was held closed even by a relative weak force on the ground (which would have been French 2nd armored and the US 5th armored, both quite fresh and powerful units relative to the worn out German divisions) they'd have faced quite deadly air strikes in addition to having to deal with armored divisions. In September fresh, though relatively untrained, German armored brigades attacked at Arracourt in worse circumstances for Patton's troops and they demolished them despite the odds, so I'm inclined to rate US armored units in mobile armored battles in August in better supply situations close to air bases as much more combat effective than raw numbers would indicate.

BTW here is a map from August 13th showing where the SS divisions were; looks like the US forces got close to actually knocking out the II SS Panzer Corps HQ while its divisions were further west:

Closing the Falaise Pocket 13 August 1944

Following the failure of the German counterattack during Operation Lüttich, the German army in northern France found itself in a perilous position. Its entire fighting force had been worn down by two months of fighting and the Americans were rapidly advan

www.themaparchive.com

Also per Zetterling's Normandy book the 1st SS division wasn't actually the entire division, just a battle ground that was deployable from Belgium; the majority of the division had been reconstituting after being mauled in Ukraine, so actually never even took part in the Normandy campaign; that meant despite the designation on the map the 1st SS was at this point just a weak battle group rather than a major threat that the full division would have been.

No, Germans losing 50.000 is but a drop in the bucket compared to overall casualties the Germans suffered in the Summer and Autumn of 1944, also supply situation simply wouldn't allow for it

Overall sure, but they were disproportionately important and rather elite units who's total loss would have pretty major impacts and be quite demoralizing. It's one thing to lose a regular infantry division, quite another to lose the 1st SS panzer division and other SS divisions. AFAIK none had ever been encircled and totally destroyed.

No, the Wallies still needed Stalin for war with Japan and were thus willing to appease him.

Fair point.

If Market Garden succeeds, then the Wallies have a bridgehead over the Rhine that they can't exploit at the moment due to lack of reserves and insufficient supplies, which means Germans have time pull forces from other fronts to contain them.

Or the German position unravels. There is a tipping point at which German forces give up and the Rhine being breached in September-October 1944 with the 15th army cut off and not long for the world would have decisive impact once they surrendered. Forget interdicting Antwerp after that.

 

[Buba]

How much sooner could the war have been ended?

It is quite possible that not a day's difference.
Between Falaise and May '45 there's almost a year - and 500km between Upper Normandy and Germany ...
Frankly, IMO clearing the Schweldt earlier could had made a bigger difference timewise.

 

[sillygoose]

It is quite possible that not a day's difference.

Possible, but not likely.

Between Falaise and May '45 there's almost a year - and 500km between Upper Normandy and Germany ...
Frankly, IMO clearing the Schweldt earlier could had made a bigger difference timewise.

Sure, but there would not be the nucleus of several divisions to build back up for the major battles that happened IOTL.
Like no II SS Panzer Corps (along with several other divisions that were involved), which had a rather important role in stopping Market Garden. Market Garden working would have cleared the Scheldt earlier through eliminating the 15th army, which when also then coupled with freeing the Netherlands in October 1944 would seriously impact the German ability to hold on. Loss of the 15th army is pretty fatal to the defense of the west.

 

[sillygoose]

Looks like I had the timeline for the advance off:

5th Armored Division (United States) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Turning north, the division surrounded the Germans in Normandy by advancing, through Le Mêle-sur-Sarthe liberated on 11 August, to the edge of the city of Argentan on 12 August—8 days before the Argentan-Falaise Gap was closed.

Turning Argentan over to the 90th Infantry Division, the 5th Armored advanced 80 miles to capture the Eure River Line at Dreux on 16 August. Bitter fighting was encountered in clearing the Eure-Seine corridor, the second big trap in France. The 5th passed through Paris 30 August to spearhead V Corps drive through the Compiègne Forest, across the Oise, Aisne, and Somme Rivers, and reached the Belgian border at Condé, 2 September.

The 5th armored division was in place to take Argentan on the 12th, 4 days before the French 2nd armored.
Instead it was routed East, so rather than tying up the pocket it was dispersed much like how Guderian messed up the Smolensk pocket in '41:

We can see the 5th armored and French 2nd armored around Alençon on the evening of August 11th. Rather than sending them north while the situation was still fluid and the Germans dispersed 5th armored was routed east with several other divisions which could have instead been sent north to close the pocket. On the 16th the 5th and 7th armored and 79th infantry division could have worked with the 90th infantry and French 2nd armored to close up the pocket tight.

German dispositions on the 16th:

Bradley was full of shit when he claimed there wasn't enough strength to close the pocket on the 12th.

 

[WolfBear]

It depends how far they go, if it's fairly shallow then they can smash up several divisions and capture/destroy supplies in rear areas without suffering too heavy casualties. If they go too far, their logistics will hamstrung them and they will suffer heavier casualties as result.

But even a victory for them here will only delay the end of the war by a couple of months, right? Is it enough time to see Germany get nuked?