What If? What if Jamie didn't notice Bran?

[Tyzuris]

Basically assume that Jaime doesn't notice Bran, Bran goes to Ned to tell Jaime and Cersei were boning in the tower, Ned after a bit of hesitation informs Robert, Ned and Robert climb up the tower to find Jaime and Cersei in post-coitus spooning nude.

How will this affect the course of the series?

 

[Buba]

Not boning, but "wrestling". Without clothes and with non-standard "hide the sausage" moves. Must be a southron thing ...

You need to check the timing first and establish "who is where?" - I think that Ned and Robert were out on a hunt?

 

[Bear Ribs]

Ignoring positions, I think there's a fair chance Jamie will kill at least one, maybe both of them. He's supposed to be one of the greatest swordsmen in the world, and more significantly the books heavily emphasize how he's quicker and has faster reaction times than anybody else. Consequently, in the moment of shock and surprise on all sides, he'll be more likely to act in the "surprise round."

There's basically four possible outcomes:

1) Ned and Robert kill Jamie. Probably Cersei dies moments later, in any situation where Jamie dies she's not going to last long. At this point Joffery is disinherited, Ned becomes hand of the king, and things probably go much better than the OTL. Ned may well figure out what Littlefinger is up to and arrange for him to become a head shorter along with fixing several other issues with the kingdom.

2) Jaimie kills Ned, then Robert kills Jamie and Cersei a moment later. Robert likely disowns Joffery leading to a rebellion and civil war with the Lannisters. With Ned dead, the North joins in against the Lannisters under Robb's leadership. It's likely at least some Lannister allies will peel off using the incest and cuckoldry as a just cause to break their allegiances, the war doesn't go well for the Lannisters.

Robert will need a new hand of the king and Robb is unlikely to be his first choice. Who he picks I genuinely have no idea. The shame of being cuckolded and deceived weakens Robert's rule and he manages to become even moar debauched and more of a drunkard than before. Unless he rolls a natural 20 on choosing an optimal Hand, the various forces like Littlefinger can move even more freely and the kingdom falls into ruin.

3) Jamie kills Robert and Ned kills Jamie. Ned may decide not to kill Cersei and instead put her on trial. Joffrey is disinherited. Stannis is legally Robert's heir so Ned will automatically support him. Things go much as in the "neither is killed" timeline from this point, Stannis is likely to choose Ned as his Hand due to Ned supporting him and having been Robert's choice. Ned may feel more free to refuse than he did Robert, but Stannis may also be able to prevail by emphasizing that the new regime needs good men to ensure it doesn't fall into ruin. Stannis is more disciplined than Robert and will have a better outcome, rooting out more corruption and solving more problems.

This is probably the best timeline.

4) Jamie manages to kill them both and escapes with Cersei. Since Bran will be able to tell other people what he saw, and the obvious regicide provides proof of the misdeed, Joffery will be disqualified for the throne. It's likely Stannis and Renly go to war over it. Not being as lawful as Ned, and needing to get up to speed on running the North, Robb may not choose sides immediately unless Lannister does, in which case he'll go in on the side they don't rather than choosing on his own merits. The victor will be whichever one George R. R. Martin decides can march an army at a hundred miles per hour over rough terrain with no food or baggage train.

 

[Buba]

Nice write up!
A few comments:
- Robb is completely unsuitable for the Hand's position;
- Stannis is very suitable for the Hand's position;
- Baelish is out of the Game with a non-senile HoK and no civil war;
- Varys - a much more evuler! and influential player than Baelish - is on one hand ecstatic - the Kingdom is ready to go up in flames, as is Illyrio's/Varys'/their joint plan. On the other hand it is a bit too soon and - GULP! - Stannis the Just is Hand;
- Jaime and Cersei escaping WF is ASB. They get caught - or die - inside a few days/100km radius;

 

[The Whispering Monk]

Ned and Robert kill Jamie.

I think this is most likely simply b/c Jamie is distracted and away from his blade. In fact, I can see Robert just tossing both from the window buck naked as proof of their betrayal.

Jaimie kills Ned, then Robert kills Jamie and Cersei a moment later

I doubt this a lot. We never really get to see Ned let loose with his swordsmanship. Jamie and Ned's dual, OTL, was interrupted by a guardsman. I give Jamie a minor edge against Ned, but it's so slight that Rob's presence skews this fight heavily against Jamie.

Jamie kills Robert and Ned kills Jamie.

This is probably the best timeline.

Only way this isn't better is if the betrayal somehow spurs a surviving Robert into sobriety and good rulership. Yeah, I don't think that's happening either.

Jamie manages to kill them both and escapes with Cersei.

Least likely outcome considering the situation, and I honestly don't see it happening.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Not boning, but "wrestling". Without clothes and with non-standard "hide the sausage" moves. Must be a southron thing ...

You need to check the timing first and establish "who is where?" - I think that Ned and Robert were out on a hunt?

This might be the most likely outcome and could lead to knock on effects later as he grows up and realizes what he witnessed but it's more fun to think he taddled immediately and accurately.

Because this would be an awesome climax for the alternate first episode. 👇

In fact, I can see Robert just tossing both from the window buck naked as proof of their betrayal.

Least likely outcome considering the situation, and I honestly don't see it happening.

Yeah I just don't see Jaime and Cersei killing anyone significant. Maybe they can escape Winterfell and kill some random guards of they move quickly upon realizing they're discovered but IIRC you have the Kingsguard there including Barristan Selmy there plus all of the Stark garrison and Sir Rodrik etc. The Lannister escort might be loyal to Cersei more then the King ofc but fighting your way out of Winterfell for the Incest Princess is a suicide mission.

(Just basing this off the show btw, never read the books)

 

[Bear Ribs]

Least likely outcome considering the situation, and I honestly don't see it happening.

Yeah I just don't see Jaime and Cersei killing anyone significant. Maybe they can escape Winterfell and kill some random guards of they move quickly upon realizing they're discovered but IIRC you have the Kingsguard there including Barristan Selmy there plus all of the Stark garrison and Sir Rodrik etc. The Lannister escort might be loyal to Cersei more then the King ofc but fighting your way out of Winterfell for the Incest Princess is a suicide mission.

(Just basing this off the show btw, never read the books)

That scenario is more based on Martin's habit of downright bending the laws of physics if needed to bring about band ends (hence my dig about armies marching a hundred miles an hour over rough terrain). I could easily see him writing that Robert bangs the door too hard on the way in, alerting Jamie who then ambushes them both and kills Ned and Robert before escaping leaving no clear heir and a civil war.

ASoIaF is built on that kind of event happening, such as Catelin somehow traveling hundreds of miles in a single day in order to accidentally stumble on Tyrion and excacerbate tensions between the Starks and Lannisters into active violence.

 

[Agent23]

and things probably go much better than the OTL.

Um, this is a work by GRRM, nothing good happens to anyone that is not the fat old bastard's self-insert.

So, yeah, we get more chaos, and we all know that Chaos is a ladder for some people that are still wielding lots of influence from the shadows.

Robert, if he survives, is a drunkard, spendthrift and all round disaster as king, and this will not make him any better.

Ned Stark is a gullible fool.

No one likes Stannis.

A lot of people will probably see this as a chance to fuck over the seven kingdoms and carve out a domain for themselves, and Lannister coffers are allegedly deeper than those of the bankrupt realm.


Similarly, the Lannistres can claim that this was a plot by Stark to gain more power, perhaps maybe even marry one of his daughters to Robert in place of Cersei and usurp the place of the "rightful" heirs.


If you look at old records you will see all sorts of nasty insults and rumors being spread between political enemies.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Based on the idea that Bran sees this, reports this and more reliable witnesses find them in bed or whatever I feel that Robert killing Jaime is the most likely outcome, if not just pitching his naked ass out the window on principle, then summarily executing him and no one daring to stop him. Cersei might actually be spared but only by the intervention of others, likely Ned Stark and Barristan Selmy etc if only to prevent fallout or whatever.

Combined with the fact that Catelyn's sister Lysa sent a letter to Catelyn stating that the Lannisters killed her husband Jon Arryn the night before and were plotting to do the same thing to King Robert, I think would lead to a very interesting political dynamic as the Eyrie, the Stormlands, the North, the Riverlands and likely the Stormlands as well as the Crownlands would all be pretty supportive of the King versus the Lannisters. And Dorne... would really have no issue with the Lannisters getting humbled.

Joffrey is actually convinced he's Robert's son (AFAIK) but it would seem rather apparent that might not be the case so him getting de-legitimatized might happen but it'd be just as amusing if not. The Lannisters really wouldn't have many options, practically speaking IMHO at this juncture. Robert might be furious and erratic because of this, and the cuckholding accusation would weaken his reign, but a Lannister gangbang would probably help centralize authority and Ned as Hand of the King would really help stabilize the situation.

With Jaime and Cersei either dead or captured (and Tyrion also captured most likely), poor Tywin would likely have to submit in a humiliating manner or go down fighting. Tywin ironically had no real part to play in this conspiracy, it was all Petyr Baelish and Lysa who did the poisoning so it'd be just as interesting to see if Tywin if he survives in some capacity, can be canny enough to figure out some part of the conspiracy. Also ironically, he'd probably need the help of folks who were his enemies in the main show.

Lysa is probably the weakest link and if Petyr can't control her, the whole conspiracy could end very poorly very quickly for Petyr Baelish if during the course of uncovering the mystery, people focus on Lysa and her seeming knowledge of the conspiracy ahead of time. That would be an angle that Tywin/Tyrion and the Master of Whispers Varys might pursue for different ends. For Petyr, provoking hostilities between the Lannisters and the rest of the Kingdom would likely buy him time to cover his ass as well as remove the Lannisters as a threat to him since he started the rumor implicating them after all.

The scenario would be more interesting with @Bear Ribs idea of a major "good" character being offed but while GRRM might allow for that, I still don't see it. But I could definitely see Jaime Lannister and Cersei Lannister maybe escaping. But they'd still have to escape the entire North which... authorial intent might save them but practically speaking... would be chancy. Especially with those Dire Wolves getting a whiff of them.

If they manage to escape back to Lannisterland though I still don't see the political landscape changing much. The same people who backed the King before I think would back the King regardless of whether King Robert has Jaime and Cersei as hostages or killed or not. Their main value in being hostages is as bargaining chips for Tywin to submit and cooperate.

 

[Buba]

Tywin WILL rebel - in canon he went to war over Tyrion ...

Cersei might actually be spared but only by the intervention of others, likely Ned Stark and Barristan Selmy etc

The Lickspittle Knight will not lift a pinky - just as he never did for Aerys' victims.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Tywin WILL rebel - in canon he went to war over Tyrion ...

True but he also places very little value on Tyrion. Cersei and Jaime are his only direct heirs. If one or both of them are dead his chance of rebelling increases greatly I agree. And to your point the fact he's in denial about the incest until the very end canonically would enhance the chance of rebellion from him as well.

 

[Bear Ribs]

I do think Tywin will rebel no matter what, BUT

In the OTL the Crown forces were mainly under Lannister control. In this scenario there's little to no chance of that, the Crown is almost certainly going to be against him along with everybody else who hates Lannisters. Given that the baseline loyalty of nobles in Westeros is somewhere around "Starscream" there's a fair chance many of his vassals are going to jump ship since the odds are worse and they have a legit "honorable" reason, so it's likely to be more of a curbstomp than anything else.

 

[Agent23]

I do think Tywin will rebel no matter what, BUT

In the OTL the Crown forces were mainly under Lannister control. In this scenario there's little to no chance of that, the Crown is almost certainly going to be against him along with everybody else who hates Lannisters. Given that the baseline loyalty of nobles in Westeros is somewhere around "Starscream" there's a fair chance many of his vassals are going to jump ship since the odds are worse and they have a legit "honorable" reason, so it's likely to be more of a curbstomp than anything else.

In the medieval period you didn't really have standing armies, but rether a bunch of vassals and mercenaries.

And Robert was a pretty incompetent and unlikable king.

Usually in such situations allegiance is less a fixed thing and more a decision of:
Who is my liege lord backing?
Do I back whoever my liege lord is backing?
Who can give me the most for my services?

The liege lord of my liege lord is not my liege lord.

Concepts of patriotism and nationhood were pretty much foreign to these people and allegiances, if they existed were close by and local ones.

And I do not think that the Lannisters took control of the "Crown forces", aka the Kingsguard and garrison/gold cloak in King's Landing overnight, or just because of Joff being heir apparent.

Lots of beinerly and backstabbing was going down and Cersei and her father were probably both plotting against Robert and planning to stsb him in the back, this just speeds things up.

 

[Bear Ribs]

In the medieval period you didn't really have standing armies, but rether a bunch of vassals and mercenaries.

And Robert was a pretty incompetent and unlikable king.

Usually in such situations allegiance is less a fixed thing and more a decision of:
Who is my liege lord backing?
Do I back whoever my liege lord is backing?
Who can give me the most for my services?

The liege lord of my liege lord is not my liege lord.

Concepts of patriotism and nationhood were pretty much foreign to these people and allegiances, if they existed were close by and local ones.

And I do not think that the Lannisters took control of the "Crown forces", aka the Kingsguard and garrison/gold cloak in King's Landing overnight, or just because of Joff being heir apparent.

Lots of beinerly and backstabbing was going down and Cersei and her father were probably both plotting against Robert and planning to stsb him in the back, this just speeds things up.

I mean, you're not wrong, but this is ASoIaF. I've made quite a few rants before about how bizarre it actually is and how little it resembles anything like a real medieval world.

Nobody seems to have the slightest problem with fielding massive armies of identically-equipped troops and having them deployed for years on end, they act far more like a conscript army than a levy even before getting into the fact that their logistics and travel times act like modern-day real-world ones rather than medieval.

Structures are odd, castles somehow just sit there in the middle of nowhere without being surrounded by farmland and towns to support them, though as A Collection of Unmitigated Pedantry noted, they do at least have somebody mowing the lawn for miles around the castle even though there are no sheep or cattle. Boats don't seem to be used to ship goods much by river and only haltingly by sea. There's no actual visible shipping or caravans bringing in the mountains of grain King's Landing would need to feed its populace.

Robert is indeed unlikeable, but somehow Cersei and Joffrey were able to maintain control without any bowback from their soldiers and he's the most likeable man in the world compared to those two.

Nobody appears to actually believe their own religion, they have the trappings and even straight up signs from the gods and yet nobody follows their prescribed morality and even blowing up the equivalent of the Vatican gets no blowback.

The Khan of the Mongol Horde equivalent only owns one horse, wears a tatty leather outfit, and no sheep or cattle. Ghengis servant's servants had more ostentatious wealth.

Somehow the most badass fighters in the world are eunuchs.

 

[Buba]

And I do not think that the Lannisters took control of the "Crown forces", aka the Kingsguard and garrison/gold cloak in King's Landing overnight, or just because of Joff being heir apparent.

The Goldcloaks were subverted by Baelish from underneath Renly and "sold" to Team Lannister.
Here there is no "senior Lannister" - in canon it was Cersei - to negotiate with. A coup in KL - making use of the resident "minor Lannisters" - would have to be organised by long distance raven with Pycelle being the local "agent".

 

[Buba]

And speaking of Ser Barristan - he is in Kings Landing and thus incapable of affecting events in WF.

 

[Husky_Khan]

And speaking of Ser Barristan - he is in Kings Landing and thus incapable of affecting events in WF.

Yeah I misremembered, thinking he and Eddard met in the first episode. That wasn't the case lol. The retinue did have Sandor Clegane in it though which could make things interesting as far as the bodycount goes, named characters and otherwise.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

Clegane's easy. Kill him on the shitter with crossbows.

 

[Agent23]

The Goldcloaks were subverted by Baelish from underneath Renly and "sold" to Team Lannister.
Here there is no "senior Lannister" - in canon it was Cersei - to negotiate with. A coup in KL - making use of the resident "minor Lannisters" - would have to be organised by long distance raven with Pycelle being the local "agent".

Yes, precisely, Littlefinger basically runs King's landing and much of the official state apparatus.

Varys runs the rest and we all know he has his own agenda that has little to do with helping Robert or the Starks.

Most likely those two will manage to somehow mess things up for everyone else.

Robert, if he lives, is the Cuckold drunkard king that has the richest House in the realm for an enemy.

His possible allies are the Starks, the Tyrels, since they will try and make Margery queen and Dorne, since Lannisters.
Half the population and the lords will think he is a cuck, the other half will think he betrayed the Lannisters because he wants to marry one of the Stark girls(Littlefinger will probably spread all sorts of fun rumors)
And if Ned dies protecting a Cuckold King then I doubt that many in the north will be happy with the outcome and with supporting said cuckold and drunkard king.


If he dies, then things get more fun.


The Tyrels will probably try and get Renly as king, since he would be more controllable and they get to put Margery as queen.


Dorn just wants revenge and to get rid of their subject status.

 

[Buba]

If there is a war then Robert will take to field which should help his health. Less food, less booze, more non "bunga-bunga" exercise.
Or drop dead to stroke ASAP.
One Land!
One Folk!
One King!
Stannis!
Stannis!
STANNIS!