Poe
Well-known member
I think he means at some point they are coming for the small towns as well if they aren't stopped in the cities. So better to fight them in the cities.
History Western Civilization, Rome and Cyclical History
- Thread starter FriedCFour
- Start date
KilroywasNOTHere
"BEEP!"
Indeed.We do not live in medieval times,when changing King changed notching for people.Or some South America country when one dictator is the same like guy who replace him.
Here,if our enemy win,we would live in gulags or unlive in massgraves.
Lord Sovereign
The resident Britbong
Concerning previous musings on China, I’ve been having some thoughts.
Communism does not endure long, maybe close to a century at most. Xi Jinping is a mad Emperor and committed Marxist who’s policies are causing a tremendous amount of woe for China; he has also purged his court of opposition, so I don’t think someone can “Deng Xiaoping” the situation.
To my mind what we are looking at is one of those “interim dynasties” that rules China in the bits between the “greatest hits” so to speak. It’s not even a century old and it is wobbling nastily; couple that with military defeat in war with the United States (which I’m certain is coming), and I then think all China will determine that the CCP has lost the Mandate of Heaven.
Cue an “Empire long united, must divide” period.
It isn’t all doom and gloom though. Han/Tang Dynasty 2.0 would be waiting on the other side. Then the Celestial Empire rises to become a true superpower and near rival to nascent Imperial America.
Communism does not endure long, maybe close to a century at most. Xi Jinping is a mad Emperor and committed Marxist who’s policies are causing a tremendous amount of woe for China; he has also purged his court of opposition, so I don’t think someone can “Deng Xiaoping” the situation.
To my mind what we are looking at is one of those “interim dynasties” that rules China in the bits between the “greatest hits” so to speak. It’s not even a century old and it is wobbling nastily; couple that with military defeat in war with the United States (which I’m certain is coming), and I then think all China will determine that the CCP has lost the Mandate of Heaven.
Cue an “Empire long united, must divide” period.
It isn’t all doom and gloom though. Han/Tang Dynasty 2.0 would be waiting on the other side. Then the Celestial Empire rises to become a true superpower and near rival to nascent Imperial America.
Poe
Well-known member
I agree with your general point but think China won't break up but instead the CCP will die giving rise to a new emperor. I could see Xi himself being the start of a dynasty if he plays it right, though really I think he's setting precedents and instead it will be a successor of his (or a successor of a successor) who makes that leap. The CCP was required to modernize China, but in doing so it's become just another imperial bureaucracy under Xi.
honestly looking forward to it China normally is a much better more ethical country then it is now.
Lord Sovereign
The resident Britbong
I think China will suffer some nastiness after the fall of communism, but after that nastiness it will be "Empire long divided, must unite." That China may well have rose tinted glasses for its pre-revolutionary past and might even install a full blown Emperor on the Dragon Throne (although, perhaps not as powerful as previous monarchs have been).
Either way, a Celestial Empire that has gotten its shit together would soon remind the world of why China is the second eldest living civilisation (that honour goes to Dharmic civilisation. I believe India's destiny is also Imperial, but that's some way off).
When it comes to india I'm betting that their islamic population is going to get purged.
Poe
Well-known member
I could actually see it growing instead long term, Pakistan and Bangladesh are parts of India and only exist right now because of British fuckery. With Nationalists gaining power in India they want that Greater India. The only thing that has stood between them has been the US and Pakistani nukes. The US is abandoning them as an ally so all thats left is figuring out the nukes, but they definitely don't have the know how to upkeep them long term.
Egyptian civilization is older than Indian and probably Chinese as well. There was the Indus Valley Civilization but 1) Its not older than egypt 2) It's not dharmic and likely unrelated to modern indian civilization which is Indo-European in nature 3) It completely died off thousands of years before the dawn of modern Indian civilization
King Arts
Well-known member
Isn’t Chinese civilization dharmic though? Like the great religions are split into Abrahamic with Jews Christians and Muslims who believe in one god and eternal heaven and hell after death and a final judgment. And dharmic ones like Hinduism and Buddhism which believe in reincarnation.
Poe
Well-known member
Chinese civilization descends from Taoism and then Confucianism. Buddhism came much later and only with Chinese characteristics which blended the former two (and I don't know if it ever became the dominant religion.)
Lord Sovereign
The resident Britbong
Poe
Well-known member
Egypt is still around
Skallagrim
Well-known member
My own contention has long been that the Mongols derailed Chinese history, rather in the way that they also derailed Russian history, and Alexander derailed Persian history. These respective "targets" were hit at different stages in their cultural development, and that affects the precise outcomes, but generally, we see that the derailed civilisations is knocked into a sort of "holding pattern". This has negative consequences down the line, although Persia interestingly escaped a lot of those negative consequences due to the influx of "new blood" from Central Asia. (Essentially, the Parthians gave shape to a new iteration of Persia, thus sort of shrugging off the derailing effects of Hellenistic, ah... pseudomorphosis, one might say. Although I'm slightly abusing the term!
)We've recently discussed the effects on Russia, so I'll leave that aside here.
China, however, that's an interesting case! As we know, China is very resilient. Unlike Rome, which fell apart and periheshed -- giving birth to successor-civilisations -- China fell back together. Rome, upon its fracturing, produced three centuries of chaos in the West. The post-civilisational division is also the pre-cultural breeding ground for what comes next. (In our case: Charlemane and the ascent of Chistendom as a civilisation unto itself.) The same was true in China, but after the collapse of Latter Han and the sbsequent three centuries of turmoil... we saw no successor, but China reborn. In Sui, a new Qin. In the Tang, a repeat of the achievements of Former Han (a.k.a the Principate). In the brief anarchy of the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms, a mid-imperial crisis. In the Song synasty, a second iteration of the Dominate phase.
In other words: the Imperial phase of Chinese history just straight up repeated. In full. Like that's a normal thing that civilisations can do. Well... it might be. Egypt pulled off the same stunt, but its second cycle was brutally aborted by the Assyrians, and that was essentially the death blow for Egypt as a functioning civilisation. (It took them ages to fully perish, but they never recovered.) China, unlike Egypty, unlike anyone, completed a second phase of Universal Empire. And then, as if God has decided that pulling for a third time would be a bit too much... the Mongols happened to China.
They happened right as the Song were already terminal, and they basically knocked China over. But Great Yuan was no Universal Empire. It was more like the Ilkhanate or the Golden Horde. A structure imposed by foreigners, and not part of China's "natural" historical cycle. It ultimately fell, but after that, China didn't return to its former historical cycle. That is: it didn't return to five-hundred-year unifications (with short upheavals in the middle) and three-century divisions between them. It was too hard-hit to "just" go on like that. But neither did it fall intopost-civilisational chaos, only for the same reigon to thereafter produce a new "Charlemagne" and give birth to a new, but different civilisation. It wasn't hit hard enough for that. Chinese culture hadn't bee destroyed, after all. "Merely" knocked off course.
So a China persisted, but it was a derailed China.
One that produced dynasties that are far less durable. They last under three centuries in practical terms, with messy fifty-year periods (on average!) of turmoil in between. Since the Mongol invasion, China is also notably more susceptible to foreign influences. This is not limited to the Machu dynasty actually being a thing, but also Crazy Batshit Pseudo-Christianity almost taking over for a bit there, and... yeah, communism. Which, in its modern doctrinal form, is not a Chinese idea. The post-Mongol unifications also show persistent "early installment weirdness", which is rather telling.
Here's my thesis. The Qing formed the previous unifying regime in the post-Mongol period. The chaotic period 1912-1949 formed the kind of typical "brief chaos period", and the establishment of the People's Republic marked a new unifying regime. This regime has in practice already divested itself of actual communist ideology. That ideology was, in fact, "early installment weirdness"; a consequence of the vulnerability to foreign influences. China is presently moving towards a more "native" form of authoritarianism; namely Neo-Legalism.
I expect the current generation of leaders to be overthrown by a more radical younger generation, who will get rid of even the pretense of communism, and who may indeed proclaim China an Empire again. This will happen later this century, due to the aging populace making the current system unsustainable. (You can already see this tension in China, with the young guard being very dissatisfied at having to work for the benefit of the old guard. It may go so far that something like the "Boomercaust when" meme will actually become real in China...)
If this change in leadership merely represents a "change in direction", and no real discontinuity in unified government, then China will continue in its post-Mongol holding pattern, and the new regime may be expected to continue for another two centuries thereafter (or so), before falling into a half-century of chaos, and then... rinse and repeat.
If, however, the seizure of power (by increasingly radical Neo-Legalism under the younger generation dissatisfied with the nominally Communist ruling clique) is drastic enough, then they may actually -- more or less by accident -- produce a new Qin-like horror regime, and re-start the true Imperial cycle. (ETA: This would, interestingly, roughly link up their Imperial cycle with our Imperial cycle. I suspect that might actually produce a hyper-stable geopolitical situation.)
@Lord Sovereign essentially describes the latter scenario. I personally think the former is more likely. But both are possible. So we will see. We will live to see... interesting times.
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I want to stress (just for clarity) that in macro-historical terms, Egyptian civilisation is extinct, and has been for many ages; present-day Egypt is simply part of Islamic civilisation, and -- beyond geographical correspondence -- unrelated to the ancient Egyptian civilisation.
It's a bit like saying that the Roman Empire still exists because Italians exist. But in fact, Roman civilisation is extinct, and modern Italy is part of Western (Christian) civilisation.
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Poe
Well-known member
I agree mostly, but it seems hard to make an argument that China (and especially India) is one continuous civilization if we then say Egypt isn't. Yes they are only recently independent from the Islamic empires, thus still contain a lot of that baggage, but that is true also of India and China has had multiple occasions where it underwent the same thing.
Lord Sovereign
The resident Britbong
Modern Egypt is much like Modern Iran; they are both the children of truly ancient civilisations, whilst being raised by Islam. There does seem to be discord in the souls of their people, for whilst they have embraced Islam they still dwell upon and glory in the name of their pagan/heathen forefathers.
Cyrus remains a hero to modern Iranians, and modern Egyptians feel a strange connection to even the mummified remains of ancient kings, let alone the wonders they left behind.
They are children of a world much older than ours. And I hope they reclaim their birthright one day.
Cyrus remains a hero to modern Iranians, and modern Egyptians feel a strange connection to even the mummified remains of ancient kings, let alone the wonders they left behind.
They are children of a world much older than ours. And I hope they reclaim their birthright one day.
All right lets go over why I think its going to happen.
Hindu's make up roughly 80% or so of the population.
Muslums make up roughly 14% of the population rounding down.
Christians make up 2.3% not a threat
Sihks make up 1.7% of the population and you have a weak successionist movement in Punjab once again not much of a threat. The Islamic population though....thats a long history.
You think the brits treated the hindu's bad oh man thats nothing compared to how muslims treated the hindu majority for hundreds of years. With a few exceptions like Akabar the great they absolutely treated the hindu's like shit. For hundreds of years. They were brutal, then the brits came in and while that was humilating that wasn't nearly a bad. This isn't saying the brits were that great its that the Islamic invaders were just....that god awful.
So the brits leave and dispite the hindu's trying to make nice after all that which you big of them got their hand of out streched friendship got slaped hard, and then Pakastan funded terrorist groups in India which have committed massacres for generations. This 14% or so of the population is now widely seen as a 5th colum.
And India has a problem with poverty and over population and the islamic community owns a lot of property and tends to have some serious wealth, things in india are pretty bad like in the rest of the world. Sooner or later your going to get a big enough islamic terror attack that some nationalist will come out and say.
We have the numbers we have the guns, we will kill this entire community and then give their property to our hindu supporters. And there are a lot of desperately poor people who would look at the offer to kill an historic enemy and take their shit and say yes. Thats the future I see as very likely for india.
Lord Sovereign
The resident Britbong
Once the ball has started rolling with crushing Islam in that part of the world, why stop there? Perhaps India would go on to conquer Pakistan and Bangladesh, reuniting the Raj in some shape or form. Need the “living space” for such a massive population after all.
Question, how do (if they have any) India’s cycles work?
Edit: And if they did have cycles, did Islamic conquest derail them?
Question, how do (if they have any) India’s cycles work?
Edit: And if they did have cycles, did Islamic conquest derail them?
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