The Muslims fail to take Egypt

[VictortheMonarch]

The Muslim Invaders are stopped in Egypt. They are unable to conquer it through sheer military build up in the Sinai Peninsula by the Byzantine Empire. Perhaps its a mightly wall that's a copy of the Great wall of China, or perhaps it's a multitude of Castles strung throughout the Peninsula. Either way, the Muslims are kept off the North African Coast. What happens next?

 

[WolfBear]

The Muslims try invading Egypt again, except this time through the Red Sea?

 

[VictortheMonarch]

The Muslims try invading Egypt again, except this time through the Red Sea?

Yes. but in this scenario they are never able to get a foothold in north africa, and they never try again.

 

[Circle of Willis]

Seems like this situation would be kinda tough if the Levant still falls to the Arabs, severing the ERE's land connection to Egypt. Also, Egypt was full of Miaphysite/Monophysite Copts who had quite a bit of bad blood built up with the orthodox Romans (hence why they found the first centuries of Muslim rule more tolerable than, and even preferable to, Byzantine rule), although by this time Heraclius was pushing Monothelitism as a theological compromise to reconcile the Egyptians with and it had gotten further than previous attempts at compromise.

Anyway, if Byzantine Egypt holds, then besides the obvious (a much more Christian Africa) Muslim piracy remains contained to the eastern Mediterranean by Byzantine fleets operating out of Egypt & Anatolia, meaning they never wreck the Mediterranean trade network. That means Vulgar Latin won't splinter & evolve into the myriad Romance languages for probably a couple more centuries (historically that started happening in the 700s-800s due to the collapse of said trade network and the Muslim conquests of North Africa & Iberia). African Romance survives in the Maghreb and may evolve into its Romance own language centuries down the line: its speakers will have much more in common with Sardinians & Spaniards than they ever do Arabs, and I wouldn't be surprised if Northwest Africa is eventually identified as an extension of Southern Europe.

The notoriously chronically unstable Visigoth kingdom probably gets overrun by the Franks in the early to mid-8th century as well, not the Arabs who never come anywhere near Iberia. In turn, you might see a Frankish-led attempt at reviving the WRE still happen with Papal support and a (possibly earlier) Great Schism between the dyothelite West and monothelite East, as the Latin West was historically a redoubt of dyothelite sentiment and the theological dispute (which some Popes got arrested & tortured to death over IIRC) will provide a huge additional motivator for the Papacy to seek to get out from under the Eastern Emperor's thumb by any means necessary.

 

[WolfBear]

Seems like this situation would be kinda tough if the Levant still falls to the Arabs, severing the ERE's land connection to Egypt. Also, Egypt was full of Miaphysite/Monophysite Copts who had quite a bit of bad blood built up with the orthodox Romans (hence why they found the first centuries of Muslim rule more tolerable than, and even preferable to, Byzantine rule), although by this time Heraclius was pushing Monothelitism as a theological compromise to reconcile the Egyptians with and it had gotten further than previous attempts at compromise.

Anyway, if Byzantine Egypt holds, then besides the obvious (a much more Christian Africa) Muslim piracy remains contained to the eastern Mediterranean by Byzantine fleets operating out of Egypt & Anatolia, meaning they never wreck the Mediterranean trade network. That means Vulgar Latin won't splinter & evolve into the myriad Romance languages for probably a couple more centuries (historically that started happening in the 700s-800s due to the collapse of said trade network and the Muslim conquests of North Africa & Iberia). African Romance survives in the Maghreb and may evolve into its Romance own language centuries down the line: its speakers will have much more in common with Sardinians & Spaniards than they ever do Arabs, and I wouldn't be surprised if Northwest Africa is eventually identified as an extension of Southern Europe.

The notoriously chronically unstable Visigoth kingdom probably gets overrun by the Franks in the early to mid-8th century as well, not the Arabs who never come anywhere near Iberia. In turn, you might see a Frankish-led attempt at reviving the WRE still happen with Papal support and a (possibly earlier) Great Schism between the dyothelite West and monothelite East, as the Latin West was historically a redoubt of dyothelite sentiment and the theological dispute (which some Popes got arrested & tortured to death over IIRC) will provide a huge additional motivator for the Papacy to seek to get out from under the Eastern Emperor's thumb by any means necessary.

Might we eventually see Egypt/North Africa breaking off under a separate emperor, similar to the split of the western and eastern Roman Empires in 395, except here it will be a north-south split?

And what happens to the Crusades several centuries later in this TL?

Otherwise, excellent analysis!

 

[Circle of Willis]

Might we eventually see Egypt/North Africa breaking off under a separate emperor, similar to the split of the western and eastern Roman Empires in 395, except here it will be a north-south split?

And what happens to the Crusades several centuries later in this TL?

Otherwise, excellent analysis!

Sure, anything is possible given enough time. A breakdown in Monothelitism or interreligious relations in general - a Byzantine emperor who decides to drop the Heraclian compromise to reconcile with the Latin West, for example - could certainly provide the foundation for a successful Southern Roman emperor who appeals to the Copts (or is one himself), and thus a north-south split that lasts a long time.

Well, the crusaders won't have to worry about Egypt being a massive Muslim base of operations right next to the Kingdom of Jerusalem, so that'll be quite nice for them. Depending on how bad relations between East and West get though, there may be no crusades at all (if the Pope doesn't feel like ordering one to assist the Byzzies) and even if it does get going, it's doubtful that they'll cooperate to any greater extent than IRL (especially if the Frankish mega-HRE project actually works out, they aren't going to want to help out their main competitor to the Roman imperial dignity). If the crusader kingdoms still prove as fragile as they were historically and the SRE is a thing, I suppose they could work to take over said crusader kingdoms to recreate those New Kingdom borders in the name of protecting the Holy Land for Christians, although the Latin Catholics and Miaphysite Copts obviously belong to different sects of Christianity and may not necessarily get along (to put it mildly).

 

[WolfBear]

Sure, anything is possible given enough time. A breakdown in Monothelitism or interreligious relations in general - a Byzantine emperor who decides to drop the Heraclian compromise to reconcile with the Latin West, for example - could certainly provide the foundation for a successful Southern Roman emperor who appeals to the Copts (or is one himself), and thus a north-south split that lasts a long time.

Well, the crusaders won't have to worry about Egypt being a massive Muslim base of operations right next to the Kingdom of Jerusalem, so that'll be quite nice for them. Depending on how bad relations between East and West get though, there may be no crusades at all (if the Pope doesn't feel like ordering one to assist the Byzzies) and even if it does get going, it's doubtful that they'll cooperate to any greater extent than IRL (especially if the Frankish mega-HRE project actually works out, they aren't going to want to help out their main competitor to the Roman imperial dignity). If the crusader kingdoms still prove as fragile as they were historically and the SRE is a thing, I suppose they could work to take over said crusader kingdoms to recreate those New Kingdom borders in the name of protecting the Holy Land for Christians, although the Latin Catholics and Miaphysite Copts obviously belong to different sects of Christianity and may not necessarily get along (to put it mildly).

I wonder if there is any realistic chance of Egypt itself leading the Crusades in this TL.

 

[Circle of Willis]

I wonder if there is any realistic chance of Egypt itself leading the Crusades in this TL.

Well it's possible that the Copts might take a more violent turn ITL, but historically speaking they seem to have been generally averse to religious militancy - they weren't quite total pacifists (there were some Coptic revolts under Islamic rule which were snuffed out fairly quickly), but as a whole they were never warlike zealots nor did they have a strong martial tradition, and the Coptic bishops & Pope usually told their followers to just pipe down and quietly live under their foreign rulers (this was back when Egypt was probably still majority Christian, mind you).

So personally, I doubt it. If there's an independent Coptic SRE around, I'd guess that they would have a relationship with the crusaders similar to the Byzantine-crusader relationship: allies at times, hostile at others, interspersed with intermarriage and the occasional betrayal, and not inclined to take orders from the other party. Wouldn't know if things get so bad that the Latins sack Alexandria in a 4th Crusade analogue, but you probably wouldn't want that to happen if (per the OP's stipulation) you want a non-Muslim Egypt to endure indefinitely.

 

[Husky_Khan]

The Muslims try invading Egypt again, except this time through the Red Sea?

I don't think the Arab Muslims invested in a serious Navy for several centuries yet, with some exceptions. And just doing a cross invasion of the Red Sea seems like it'd be problematic. The Eastern Desert and Red Sea Hills are extremely inhospitable for any sort of maneuvers or deployment of an invasion force that could overtake a resistant Egypt, even for warriors as tough as those that grew up in the Arabian desert.

 

[VictortheMonarch]

Personally I think a map of what I think will happen should be made, here.

As you may be able to see, the Coptic church is ALOT more powerful here. It's my mind that the Copts would break away, forming their own Aegyptian Empire, or with a Coptic Roman Emperor. That being said, Byzantium would still fall. While Much of Northern Africa is for the most part, Christian, I do feel that Islam wouldn't be kept entirely out of Africa, the Ethiopians were constantly flip flopping between Coptic and Islamic Rulers, and I see no reason for that to change. Besides that, things remain the same for the most part. While I cannot say what the Languages would look like, I would say there would be alot more French words in the Spanish and German dictionaries, that is for certain.