Winston Bush
Well-known member
Let’s say through [insert your economic beliefs here] that the great depression never happens,what would be the effects on other nations and how politics would evolve in a sans great depression america.
The Great Depression never happens,effects on other nations and the politics of the 2 parties?
- Thread starter Winston Bush
- Start date
sillygoose
Well-known member
Likely we see a global recession, but it just doesn't get so bad as to radicalize the world. Mussolini is still in charge and goes on foreign adventures, Japan probably follows suit, but Germany may well not get to the point where the Nazis take over. That basically changes everything since there won't be a WW2 and the SCW probably isn't nearly as bad or happens at all without Germany helping. So the 1920s order largely stays in place and evolves to work better. FDR gets no further than 2 terms and isn't nearly as radical without the Great Depression. We probably see a much more boring 20th century.
sillygoose
Well-known member
The Luftwaffe flew in the Spanish army from the colonies.
Condor Legion - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
German involvement in the Spanish Civil War - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
sillygoose
Well-known member
Fair enough. I just meant the initial revolt doesn't get very far. Then to me it's a failed rebellion rather than a civil war.
A lot would depend on why the depression doesn't occur. There is an argument it was an event that might be delayed but not avoided totally. For instance the post-WWI settlement made the situation unstable with US loans enabling German partial payment of reparations, which in turn allowed assorted powers to pay back their war debts to the US. As such any problem for the US is a major crisis for the world economy, which makes recovery for the US more difficult as both a lot of debts have to be defaulted and with world trade in collapse its more difficult for a US recovery, especially in the predominant policies prior to 1933. As such are we only delaying matters? Also if its something such as the unstable bull-market being corrected in some way would prevent a later failure and what knock on effects are there of whatever mechanism prevents the OTL 1929 crash?
However if it doesn't happen then a lot of things are likely to be different. Hitler and the Nazis are unlikely to come to power, although there were signs that Germany was seeing more revanchist and militaristic elements growing more influential. Plus even the current system before 1929 meant that Germany was simply replacing reparation payments by debts to the US so this is likely to come to a head sooner or later. Do you get a de-facto slow default as under the Nazis with them gradually diluting foreign debts and basically blocking payments, some quick default, possibly by Germany only or Germany managing to pay off the debts to the US after a prolonged period of time? All will have distinct impacts on Germany, the US and other nations.
Without Hitler, even if alternative opponents of the 1919 treaty come to power their unlikely to destabilise Europe as quickly as OTL because their likely to be less erratic and also not going to have the massive military build-up under the Nazis. This might make then a greater threat to the democracies at a later stage but could also decouple such a conflict in Europe from a war with Japan as I suspect no depression will only delay the collapse into extreme militarism there and your still likely to end up with an invasion of China. However without the same degree of threat in Europe the western powers are going to be able to support the nationalists more which means that Japan will struggle a lot more in that conflict and if they do strike south, even if only against France and Britain their likely to be defeated. This would hopefully mean that any clash with militaristic revanchist in Germany would only come after that war rather than such an over-stressing of the democratic powers.
Of course the other issue here is what happens with the Soviets? Do they continue with their internal blundering under Stalin or do they at some point chance their arm? Possibly against Poland, which might prompt a coalition against them? Or joining in an attack on Japan, assuming the latter secures Manchuria, which would give them an opportunity to boost their position there.
As sillygoose says the SCW may not occur or may end up as just a failed right wing military coup. Although Mussolini is still about to help a fascist bloc in Spain and without Hitler the western allies might be even more wary of a left wing government in Spain, especially if as OTL the Soviets become their primary ally in fighting the right. If the republicans still win do they become more extreme as some fear, more democratic or staying distinctly unstable.
Without a depression you might seem some limited naval construction of capital ships from 1931 onward rather than the continuing of the building holiday in the 1930 London treaty. This would be a big boost to Britain as it would avoid the mass bloc obsolescence that Britain faced in the late 30's and also maintain a lot more capacity so a later crisis with either Japan or Germany would be less of a challenge. Not sure how it would affect other powers but would expect both the US and Japan to build again, although probably within numerical limitations and a smaller naval race in the Med between France and Italy.
In terms of Britain, which I'm most knowledgeable of, no depression probably means a Labour government some time in the 30's after the country becomes tired of Conservative rule but not sure what their policies would be as don't think the Labour party was and would also depend on the size and cohesion of their majority. Also without a depression and then the run up to war you are likely to see something happen with India earlier. Probably an offer of dominion status at some point although India could still move to full independence at a later stage. Whether this might avoid the OTL partition, or possibly prompt a very nasty civil war later on I don't know however as anything could happen.
However if it doesn't happen then a lot of things are likely to be different. Hitler and the Nazis are unlikely to come to power, although there were signs that Germany was seeing more revanchist and militaristic elements growing more influential. Plus even the current system before 1929 meant that Germany was simply replacing reparation payments by debts to the US so this is likely to come to a head sooner or later. Do you get a de-facto slow default as under the Nazis with them gradually diluting foreign debts and basically blocking payments, some quick default, possibly by Germany only or Germany managing to pay off the debts to the US after a prolonged period of time? All will have distinct impacts on Germany, the US and other nations.
Without Hitler, even if alternative opponents of the 1919 treaty come to power their unlikely to destabilise Europe as quickly as OTL because their likely to be less erratic and also not going to have the massive military build-up under the Nazis. This might make then a greater threat to the democracies at a later stage but could also decouple such a conflict in Europe from a war with Japan as I suspect no depression will only delay the collapse into extreme militarism there and your still likely to end up with an invasion of China. However without the same degree of threat in Europe the western powers are going to be able to support the nationalists more which means that Japan will struggle a lot more in that conflict and if they do strike south, even if only against France and Britain their likely to be defeated. This would hopefully mean that any clash with militaristic revanchist in Germany would only come after that war rather than such an over-stressing of the democratic powers.
Of course the other issue here is what happens with the Soviets? Do they continue with their internal blundering under Stalin or do they at some point chance their arm? Possibly against Poland, which might prompt a coalition against them? Or joining in an attack on Japan, assuming the latter secures Manchuria, which would give them an opportunity to boost their position there.
As sillygoose says the SCW may not occur or may end up as just a failed right wing military coup. Although Mussolini is still about to help a fascist bloc in Spain and without Hitler the western allies might be even more wary of a left wing government in Spain, especially if as OTL the Soviets become their primary ally in fighting the right. If the republicans still win do they become more extreme as some fear, more democratic or staying distinctly unstable.
Without a depression you might seem some limited naval construction of capital ships from 1931 onward rather than the continuing of the building holiday in the 1930 London treaty. This would be a big boost to Britain as it would avoid the mass bloc obsolescence that Britain faced in the late 30's and also maintain a lot more capacity so a later crisis with either Japan or Germany would be less of a challenge. Not sure how it would affect other powers but would expect both the US and Japan to build again, although probably within numerical limitations and a smaller naval race in the Med between France and Italy.
In terms of Britain, which I'm most knowledgeable of, no depression probably means a Labour government some time in the 30's after the country becomes tired of Conservative rule but not sure what their policies would be as don't think the Labour party was and would also depend on the size and cohesion of their majority. Also without a depression and then the run up to war you are likely to see something happen with India earlier. Probably an offer of dominion status at some point although India could still move to full independence at a later stage. Whether this might avoid the OTL partition, or possibly prompt a very nasty civil war later on I don't know however as anything could happen.