Middle East Pompeo arrives in Qatar as peace talks between Taliban-Afghan open up

[Zachowon]

Mike Pompeo arrives in Qatar for Taliban-Afghan peace talks

Pompeo arrived late on Friday in Doha, ahead of an opening ceremony on Saturday for the peace talks aimed at ending two decades of war that has killed tens of thousands of combatants and civilians.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Long story short, Pompeo is there to negotiate the US side of the deal, and should this go through 19 years of war with the Taliban..ends..
Should this go through, this brings about a whole new Era....
Oh and trump hopes to have this go through by November, and will pull troops fully about around May of 21.

 

[Arch Dornan]

About time. Bin Laden's seafood so what's there left to do in Afghanistan?

 

[Lanmandragon]

About time. Bin Laden's seafood so what's there left to do in Afghanistan?

Rare earth minerals is why the swamp wants to. For everyone else though there isn't one.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Rare earth minerals is why the swamp wants to. For everyone else though there isn't one.

Then they should do it normally with trade deals not with an army.

 

[Lanmandragon]

Then they should do it normally with trade deals not with an army.

I agree but the swamp clearly doesn't. I was only telling you why not justifing it.

 

[Bacle]

The issue is, those rare earth's are very tempting for China, which people forget actually shares a small border with A-stan.

I expect this peace deal to benefit the locals and bring peace, while keeping a few US troops there to deal with any ISIS remnants and to guard any US backed rare earth mines.

Of course, last year Japan supposedly found a shit ton of rare earths off it's coast, so the deposits in A-stan may no longer be as critical.

 

[Zachowon]

The issue is, those rare earth's are very tempting for China, which people forget actually shares a small border with A-stan.

I expect this peace deal to benefit the locals and bring peace, while keeping a few US troops there to deal with any ISIS remnants and to guard any US backed rare earth mines.

Of course, last year Japan supposedly found a shit ton of rare earths off it's coast, so the deposits in A-stan may no longer be as critical.

All foreign troops out by 2021. US funding to help them rebuild through peace

 

[Deleted member 88]

I’m still of the firm belief the taliban will overrun the country if we leave.

 

[Zachowon]

I’m still of the firm belief the taliban will overrun the country if we leave.

They are literally in charge..... The people side with the Taliban over the Government

 

[Arch Dornan]

H.R. McMaster rebukes Trump over Taliban talks

The president’s former national security adviser says in a “60 Minutes” interview that withdrawing American forces from Afghanistan is an “unwise” policy.

www.politico.com

Someone's not happy.

 

[Cherico]

The issue is, those rare earth's are very tempting for China, which people forget actually shares a small border with A-stan.

I expect this peace deal to benefit the locals and bring peace, while keeping a few US troops there to deal with any ISIS remnants and to guard any US backed rare earth mines.

Of course, last year Japan supposedly found a shit ton of rare earths off it's coast, so the deposits in A-stan may no longer be as critical.

oh.....that's adorable.

Yeah China is not going to hold afganistan, the british failed, the Russians failed numerous times and America really only had limited success because.

1. we bribed people
2. we openly told the major players we don't want to be there forever.

 

[LordsFire]

oh.....that's adorable.

Yeah China is not going to hold afganistan, the british failed, the Russians failed numerous times and America really only had limited success because.

1. we bribed people
2. we openly told the major players we don't want to be there forever.

Hey, if the Chinese want to go and lose thousands of lives and billions of dollars trying to occupy the place, that sounds like a problem for them and Afghanistan, not the rest of the world.

There's a certain type of tragedy to two messed up nations messing each other up, but it's better such powers fight each other than other nations. Considering that 'being insanely hard to control' is very nearly the only power Afghanistan has, well...

 

[Arch Dornan]

Hey, if the Chinese want to go and lose thousands of lives and billions of dollars trying to occupy the place, that sounds like a problem for them and Afghanistan, not the rest of the world.

There's a certain type of tragedy to two messed up nations messing each other up, but it's better such powers fight each other than other nations. Considering that 'being insanely hard to control' is very nearly the only power Afghanistan has, well...

So what does happen if all their neighbours ganged up on Afghanistan like Poland?

 

[LordsFire]

So what does happen if all their neighbours ganged up on Afghanistan like Poland?

None of their neighbors are strong enough nations to pull off an occupation like that. That said, if they somehow became sufficiently united, they might pull it off through a combination of weight of numbers, and very short logistics chains.

For China, even though they do very narrowly share a border with it, the overwhelming majority of China's population and industry is in its eastern reaches, so there's still a long logistics chain involved.

 

[Marduk]

Rare earth minerals is why the swamp wants to. For everyone else though there isn't one.

The issue is, those rare earth's are very tempting for China, which people forget actually shares a small border with A-stan.

I expect this peace deal to benefit the locals and bring peace, while keeping a few US troops there to deal with any ISIS remnants and to guard any US backed rare earth mines.

Of course, last year Japan supposedly found a shit ton of rare earths off it's coast, so the deposits in A-stan may no longer be as critical.

Its a political Gordian Knot. Real estate is always nice to have, but if you are going to spend crazy money enforcing and bribing and pleading with Afghans to maintain some sort of law and order (no, its not just guarding the mines, that's pointless without also guarding all the long and remote roads that would lead to them) so that mining business can exploit it in peace.... not necessarily worth it. Worse yet, it could be a Chinese business in the end, its not like they lack money or willingness to bribe third world officials.

For cultural and political reasons USA can't just go "Afghanistan is our resource colony now, here's their military governor, whoever doesn't like it can go and perform some physiologically impossible act of self-abuse".

If China wants it, they can go in and do exactly that, they can even put millions of unruly Afghans in concentration camps and turn it into a Xinjiang on steroids, but at least let them pay all the related costs in bribes, new infrastructure, blood, and PR, don't pay a big chunk of that for them, that's insane.

So what does happen if all their neighbours ganged up on Afghanistan like Poland?

Pakistan is the surprisingly unspoken about elephant in the room here.

Pakistan 'could end Afghan conflict'

The head of the Afghan army tells BBC HARDtalk fighting in Afghanistan could be stopped "in weeks" if Pakistan told the Taliban to end the insurgency.

www.bbc.com

Sometimes the truth slips out, and it is still true. Taliban may control Afghanistan like they used to, but Pakistan always had a certain, hard to qualify, but meaningful degree of control over Taliban.

H.R. McMaster rebukes Trump over Taliban talks

The president’s former national security adviser says in a “60 Minutes” interview that withdrawing American forces from Afghanistan is an “unwise” policy.

www.politico.com

Someone's not happy.

Let's see what he has.

The retired Army lieutenant general was discussing his new book, “Battlegrounds,” in which he says Trump “cheapened” the lives of the Americans who died in Afghanistan by making too many concessions to the Taliban, "60 Minutes" reported.

I would have expected better than sunk cost fallacy argument from a professional...

“What we require in Afghanistan is a sustained commitment to help the Afghan government,” he said on “60 Minutes.”

Who's "we"? Sure, it would be in the interest of Afghan government, but how is it in the interest of American government?

 

[Zachowon]

Its a political Gordian Knot. Real estate is always nice to have, but if you are going to spend crazy money enforcing and bribing and pleading with Afghans to maintain some sort of law and order (no, its not just guarding the mines, that's pointless without also guarding all the long and remote roads that would lead to them) so that mining business can exploit it in peace.... not necessarily worth it. Worse yet, it could be a Chinese business in the end, its not like they lack money or willingness to bribe third world officials.

For cultural and political reasons USA can't just go "Afghanistan is our resource colony now, here's their military governor, whoever doesn't like it can go and perform some physiologically impossible act of self-abuse".

If China wants it, they can go in and do exactly that, they can even put millions of unruly Afghans in concentration camps and turn it into a Xinjiang on steroids, but at least let them pay all the related costs in bribes, new infrastructure, blood, and PR, don't pay a big chunk of that for them, that's insane.


Pakistan is the surprisingly unspoken about elephant in the room here.

Pakistan 'could end Afghan conflict'

The head of the Afghan army tells BBC HARDtalk fighting in Afghanistan could be stopped "in weeks" if Pakistan told the Taliban to end the insurgency.

www.bbc.com

Sometimes the truth slips out, and it is still true. Taliban may control Afghanistan like they used to, but Pakistan always had a certain, hard to qualify, but meaningful degree of control over Taliban.


Let's see what he has.

I would have expected better than sunk cost fallacy argument from a professional...

Who's "we"? Sure, it would be in the interest of Afghan government, but how is it in the interest of American government?

The government that the locals don't acknowledge? The Government that has so many members of Taliban, we lose a lot of soldiers to the Afghan military and police before they ever face Taliban

 

[Arch Dornan]

None of their neighbors are strong enough nations to pull off an occupation like that. That said, if they somehow became sufficiently united, they might pull it off through a combination of weight of numbers, and very short logistics chains.

For China, even though they do very narrowly share a border with it, the overwhelming majority of China's population and industry is in its eastern reaches, so there's still a long logistics chain involved.

It's a hypothetical. Just because Afghanistan is an Empire's worst nightmare doesn't mean big bullies next door can do it if they're ruthless and shrewd enough to make the Afghans their bitch.

Pakistan is the surprisingly unspoken about elephant in the room here.

Pakistan 'could end Afghan conflict'

The head of the Afghan army tells BBC HARDtalk fighting in Afghanistan could be stopped "in weeks" if Pakistan told the Taliban to end the insurgency.

www.bbc.com

Sometimes the truth slips out, and it is still true. Taliban may control Afghanistan like they used to, but Pakistan always had a certain, hard to qualify, but meaningful degree of control over Taliban.

Makes a load of sense. Who supplies the guns and all those useful aids you need for guerilla warfare?

 

[Marduk]

It's a hypothetical. Just because Afghanistan is an Empire's worst nightmare doesn't mean big bullies next door can do it if they're ruthless and shrewd enough to make the Afghans their bitch.


Makes a load of sense. Who supplies the guns and all those useful aids you need for guerilla warfare?

Its less about supplies, and more about being a safe haven with all that follows.
The border area has the same tribes on both sides of the border, when going gets tough Taliban go to the other side for R&R, action on the other side of the border either pissess off Pakistan and makes them threaten to cut supplies for US forces or if agreed upon, they want favors back and may be leaking the info to the Taliban being attacked. Absolute clown world...
Yes, to add insult to injury, USA is reliant on its Pakistani frenemy for supply routes to Afghanistan.

In a way its Vietnam all over again - US forces aren't allowed to take the fight to the enemy over a line on the map that the other side doesn't give a damn about.

 

[Zachowon]

Its less about supplies, and more about being a safe haven with all that follows.
The border area has the same tribes on both sides of the border, when going gets tough Taliban go to the other side for R&R, action on the other side of the border either pissess off Pakistan and makes them threaten to cut supplies for US forces or if agreed upon, they want favors back and may be leaking the info to the Taliban being attacked. Absolute clown world...
Yes, to add insult to injury, USA is reliant on its Pakistani frenemy for supply routes to Afghanistan.

In a way its Vietnam all over again - US forces aren't allowed to take the fight to the enemy over a line on the map that the other side doesn't give a damn about.

Which is why we need to get the fuck out of there. At least in Iraq we don't ned a frenemy

 

[Arch Dornan]

Its less about supplies, and more about being a safe haven with all that follows.
The border area has the same tribes on both sides of the border, when going gets tough Taliban go to the other side for R&R, action on the other side of the border either pissess off Pakistan and makes them threaten to cut supplies for US forces or if agreed upon, they want favors back and may be leaking the info to the Taliban being attacked. Absolute clown world...
Yes, to add insult to injury, USA is reliant on its Pakistani frenemy for supply routes to Afghanistan.

In a way its Vietnam all over again - US forces aren't allowed to take the fight to the enemy over a line on the map that the other side doesn't give a damn about.

Which leaves an interesting happening once the US leaves. Pakistan is China's bitch thanks to the debts they owe and Afghanistan's Taliban owes them a lot of favors.

Pakistan borrows $1 Billion from China to repay $1 Billion to Saudi Arabia

China tightens its grip over Pakistan, gives $1 billion loan to repay Saudi Arabia's $1 billion loan, grants 90% of $6.8 billion railway project

www.opindia.com

Once big bad Uncle Sam leaves what now when Pakistan is sucking off from the Chinese?