peter Zeihan 2020

Any idea where this data is from?

Source is listed on the second, for the first I'll look around.

Also:
What does "age adjusted" mean?
I doubt that all non-opioid drug deaths in the USA amount to less than 0.11 per 100,000 (or 1.55 using the lower spike)

Nevertheless, deeply alarming. I'd rather a graph that extended past COVID but a brief glance around suggests that while it's down it's closer to the spike than to what preceded it.

I can believe it, Heroin availability has cratered because of the Taliban and other drugs aren't as lethal; cocaine (IIRC) is actually less lethal now than anytime before, the issue with it is that it is increasingly cut with fent.
 


It appears the U.S. is imminently about to abandon its position(s) in Syria, in a major win for the Russia-Iran axis and it's local client Assad. This follows months of increasing base attacks that have left the U.S. presence in the region increasingly vulnerable and exposed:

 
I can believe it, Heroin availability has cratered because of the Taliban and other drugs aren't as lethal; cocaine (IIRC) is actually less lethal now than anytime before, the issue with it is that it is increasingly cut with fent.
Here's a product of about 2 seconds of searching:
For specific drugs, and after controlling for the sex-specific rate of drug misuse, the researchers found that the overall rates of drug overdose death by sex from 2020-2021 were:
Synthetic opioids (e.g., fentanyl): 29.0 deaths per 100,000 people for men, compared to 11.1 for women
Heroin: 5.5 deaths per 100,000 people for men, compared to 2.0 for women
Psychostimulants (e.g., methamphetamine): 13.0 deaths per 100,000 people for men, compared to 5.6 for women
Cocaine: 10.6 deaths per 100,000 people for men, compared to 4.2 for women
These numbers are broken into sexed categories, but clearly non-opioid death rates are far above what you were prepared to believe.
 
Sure but the same is true of the graph you posted in the first place. I'd be perfectly happy to engage with more recent data. Also, the Taliban didn't shut down meth, which alone would be more than sufficient to prove the point I was making.

Fair, regardless of the exact break down, the original point stands.
 
Fair, regardless of the exact break down, the original point stands.
The original point was "American opioid deaths have now surpassed post-Soviet Russian vodka deaths", and "surpassed" has been shown to be unsubstantiated.

You could definitely make a different point about American opioid deaths that would stand. Perhaps "...are now comparable to..."
 
Yes, we do, at least in terms of reserves; Alaska is only producing about 1/4 the oil it normally does right now.

The bottleneck is refining capacity and set ups; oil from one source is not always refinable (economically) with the refining set up at more than a few refineries.

For instance sulfur impurities and proportion will eat through a refining still and pipes if not accounted for in the refining design, and there may only be one or two oil fields a particular refinery is set up to handle normally.

And no one has authorized building a new refinery in the last 10+ years, so there is no new capacity coming on line for the foreseeable future, particularly with the 'zero carbon' craze.
 
Yes, we do, at least in terms of reserves; Alaska is only producing about 1/4 the oil it normally does right now.

The bottleneck is refining capacity and set ups; oil from one source is not always refinable (economically) with the refining set up at more than a few refineries.

For instance sulfur impurities and proportion will eat through a refining still and pipes if not accounted for in the refining design, and there may only be one or two oil fields a particular refinery is set up to handle normally.

And no one has authorized building a new refinery in the last 10+ years, so there is no new capacity coming on line for the foreseeable future, particularly with the 'zero carbon' craze.

Noted and thank you.

If you might indulge me with another answer; do you have any idea about how quickly that situation could be fixed?
 
Noted and thank you.

If you might indulge me with another answer; do you have any idea about how quickly that situation could be fixed?
...that is a question with a lot of layers, and a lot of separate issues.

First, a new refinery coming on line, from the word go, is a 10 year process if things go WELL. Even the Corp of Engineers would be hard pressed to make a civie scale refinery boom that makes a noticable impact on gas prices in much shorter a time, because you cannot rush building a refinery if you want it to last. Small, single still refineries near small towns might be a stop-gap you could toss up in like 3 years, just for gas/diesel, but that requires very sweet, very clean oil, and delivering that oil to said refineries is a challenge in and of itself.

Second, it requires that require accepting the Alaska state government is a barely functional mess at every level and it's more purple than red these days.

The military bases are the most functional parts of the state, outside the airports and major seaports like Seward or Dutch Harbor. Anchorage is like a smaller Detroit with an airbase and with too shallow a bay to make large ships safe to bring in, Juneau is played out gold mining town that wouldn't be more than a fishing village if it was not the state capital, which makes the state have to put what amounts to a second capital building in Anchorage itself anyway. Anchorage is the only place I've ever seen people passed out on the street, might have seen a guy get strangled while we drove past an intersection, and had a police chase a fugitive/carjacker through the edge of part of a family members property at 2 am one time.

The main seasonal employment/tourist season also usually ends mid-late August and doesn't start again to late May, so for a lot of the year people simply don't have guaranteed employment, and they have to live off what they make in the summer season unless they want to work the winter ocean fisheries. And Deadliest Catch actually tones down how dangerous it is out there for nearly any fishing season.

And all of those issues have their own layers.

It'd actually be easier to set up more industrial alcohol production and just put a larger amount of denatured alcohol into the gasoline supply, than make more refineries. Less NIMBY-ism too, because people don't really have a problem with what amounts to a rubbing alcohol plant nearby, so long as it is OSHA/EPA complaint, and it's rather easy to denature alcohol without poisoning the enviroment. Won't do much for shit that needs diesel, marine diesel, or for the plastics precursor supply line.
 



Ukraine hit a refinery in russia, through shear incompetence the russians did more damange trying to fix things then the Ukranians did with their drone.
 
PZ released a Sunday video on YouTube, not a normal thing. About Finland and Russia.



yeah basically the short version is that Russias now in that sweet spot where their weak enough where Finland doesn't have to appease them for survival and have done enough stuff to piss off the Finns that they just join Nato whole heartedly.

This has really fucked russia's naval capability in the baltic sea and has more or less turned Kaligrad from asset into liability.
 
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Kaliningrad also has people that have openly voted for independence from Russia.

Their seperated from Russia by mulitple countries, are surrounded by Nato on all sides and know for a fact that if war goes down that they will be bum rushed from all directions. Just leaving Russia and taking up a prussian flag and psudo idenity means they get to avoid all of that.
 
Their seperated from Russia by mulitple countries, are surrounded by Nato on all sides and know for a fact that if war goes down that they will be bum rushed from all directions. Just leaving Russia and taking up a prussian flag and psudo idenity means they get to avoid all of that.
How dare they! they should all die with red banner in hand !
 
The original point was "American opioid deaths have now surpassed post-Soviet Russian vodka deaths", and "surpassed" has been shown to be unsubstantiated.

You could definitely make a different point about American opioid deaths that would stand. Perhaps "...are now comparable to..."

No, your argument was on the composition of the drug deaths. Total drug deaths has exceeded alcoholism deaths in Post-Soviet Russia.
 

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