Zeihan talked about it a bit last year, but the Russians didn't go into this venture entirely half-cocked. They took steps to insulate themselves from the inevitable sanctions. This has resulted in the sanctions having mixed results, something our childishly simplistic media atmosphere has struggled to comprehend or convey.
They have also benefited from the fact that most third-party nations consider the US' anger over this invasion a little hypocritical given that we've spent the last twenty years scrambling the Middle East like a Waffle House egg. We're burning fairly irreplaceable economic and diplomatic chips to enforce middling sanctions against a nation capable of autarky. I'm with Zeihan that BRICS is a load, but that's only for now. We're giving the rest of the world increasing reason to make their own economic system free of American influence and we're not even receiving a good return for the cost.
America and Russia both signed a treaty to protect Ukraines sovereignty.
As for the world unhappy with American leadership, ironic that after 75 years of trying to enforce freedom of the seas so the world can be more prosperous, ( yes it benefited America too), The World is reverting to pre-WWII outlook. Europe is in trouble. I remember when a field grade from one of our NATO partners said, “ We do not have an effective military because we have the US. Why spend money when you will Come if anything happens”…… paraphrased from a conversation 20 years ago. It seemed more a dig on his own government's policies. Now Europe is scrambling for more equipment, but well-trained military takes time and money to be effective. A 200% increase in military funding is not a good Army today, but a better Army in a decade.
Ironic that the world might be begging for Americans to come help as things fall into the pot. I hope Europe pulls it together, especially France. They need some help. As Peter would say, “demographic decline”…. Last I read the French population growth was approaching 4 out of 5 babies born in France are not ethnic French.
India looks like it might do okay, corruption is one of their biggest issues to overcome.
China as talked about above the CCP done burnt the Golden Goose and might feel some blowback. A good chance of civil war and separation of Tibet, Mongolia, and a split of Han Chinese areas.
Ironic if Taiwan takes back some of the mainland….. Or is asked to comeback to put things in order after it collapses. Vietnam and India might take back decades of lost territory.
Something I have thought about after a talk with an interpreter. He asked me “ Why is the US so prosperous and his country so backward”?
My 1st point had to do with educating woman, you can not keep more than 50% of your population not productive.
But the first one topic came up Western culture has learned to be more productive, but is also more fragile. Clan / tribal culture developed to function in a less modern world. Clan culture would keep chugging along w/o globalization, specialization, industrial farming, and electricity (etc).
Unless a country is self-reliant for food, energy, manufacturing, material resources, etc….. Covid stupid was a hint of supply chain issues that are still being felt.
