peter Zeihan 2020

Why would we want a deal with Cuba?
In addition to what Cherico said, Cuba's biotech industry is poised to explode. In 1970, an outbreak of Dengue Fever nearly wiped the island out. Castro sent every halfway decent medic he had to Moscow's universities to learn then-cutting-edge medical tech, then threw tons of money and his brightest people at the medical industry for forty years straight. Despite operating on a budget of nothing and having to build their own technology from scratch, those chickens have finally come to roost and Cuban medicine is at the top of the world, with some of the top scientists in every field.

Cuba made their own COVID vaccine... actually they made five of them, and their vaccines appear to be safe and actually stop the virus compared to what the rest of the world managed. They've got a huge list of very significant medical gains already and if they get an infusion of actual money and technology, well...
 
In addition to what Cherico said, Cuba's biotech industry is poised to explode. In 1970, an outbreak of Dengue Fever nearly wiped the island out. Castro sent every halfway decent medic he had to Moscow's universities to learn then-cutting-edge medical tech, then threw tons of money and his brightest people at the medical industry for forty years straight. Despite operating on a budget of nothing and having to build their own technology from scratch, those chickens have finally come to roost and Cuban medicine is at the top of the world, with some of the top scientists in every field.

Cuba made their own COVID vaccine... actually they made five of them, and their vaccines appear to be safe and actually stop the virus compared to what the rest of the world managed. They've got a huge list of very significant medical gains already and if they get an infusion of actual money and technology, well...
Meh. If their vaccines had any issues not common enough to wipe a meaningful population fraction, they would be willing and able to make sure no one finds out.
Having some kind of domestic corona vax at this point is not nearly as rare thing for third world countries as you may think.
Notables include Iran, Indonesia and Kazakhstan.
 
Meh. If their vaccines had any issues not common enough to wipe a meaningful population fraction, they would be willing and able to make sure no one finds out.
Having some kind of domestic corona vax at this point is not nearly as rare thing for third world countries as you may think.
Notables include Iran, Indonesia and Kazakhstan.
Not "at this point." Abdala was in clinical trials in 2020 and had a widescale deployment in 2021.

But if you're not impressed with their COVID vaccines, perhaps you'd be more impressed that due to superior health care, Cuba's life expectancy is several years longer than the US? Or that they have a vaccine for freaking lung cancer? Or their epidermal growth accelerator that cures deep and complex foot ulcers? Or one of the many other miracle cures Cuba's produced?
 
Not "at this point." Abdala was in clinical trials in 2020 and had a widescale deployment in 2021.

But if you're not impressed with their COVID vaccines, perhaps you'd be more impressed that due to superior health care, Cuba's life expectancy is several years longer than the US? Or that they have a vaccine for freaking lung cancer? Or their epidermal growth accelerator that cures deep and complex foot ulcers? Or one of the many other miracle cures Cuba's produced?
I trust in a commie government's willingness and ability to manipulate statistics valuable to their image.
They have some potentially working biomedical products, though outside of obvious government simping propaganda sources, less miracle cures and more stuff equivalent to what regularly comes out of major research powers without great fanfare outside of scientific journals.
There is at least one area of statistics related to health where Cuba as caught doing "magic" and it's not pretty.
 
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I trust in a commie government's willingness and ability to manipulate statistics valuable to their image.
They have some potentially working biomedical products, though outside of obvious government simping propaganda sources, less miracle cures and more stuff equivalent to what regularly comes out of major research powers without great fanfare outside of scientific journals.
Oh, fact checked by Snopes, that's convincing. Do you also endorse the multiple pages of anti-Trump fact checks they're legendary for? Or the fact that Snopes is so eager to fact-check anything conservative they've repeatedly fact-checked the freakin' Babylon Bee? That Snopes? That's what hill you've decided to die on?



As is, even that fact-check is pretty tepid, they outright admit it exists and just state that they can't be sure it's really cured "thousands" because not every person treated might have had lung cancer... and the article is over five years old so many thousands have been treated since.
 
Oh, fact checked by Snopes, that's convincing. Do you also endorse the multiple pages of anti-Trump fact checks they're legendary for? Or the fact that Snopes is so eager to fact-check anything conservative they've repeatedly fact-checked the freakin' Babylon Bee? That Snopes? That's what hill you've decided to die on?



As is, even that fact-check is pretty tepid, they outright admit it exists and just state that they can't be sure it's really cured "thousands" because not every person treated might have had lung cancer... and the article is over five years old so many thousands have been treated since.

Unfortunately for your whole argument, in what world do Cuba's hypothetical glories qualify as something conservative or right wing? In fact if Cuba's healthcare be as great as their propaganda makes it, leftists from Snopes of all people would be expected to parrot that.

From what we know, it's a niche thing that maybe helps in some specific cancers. What makes Cuba doing it so special and you simp for it so hard?

Here's what anti-communist libertarians think of glories of Cuba's healthcare if you think leftists from Snopes are for some baffling reason not giving it a fair shake:

 
Unfortunately for your whole argument, in what world do Cuba's hypothetical glories qualify as something conservative or right wing? In fact if Cuba's healthcare be as great as their propaganda makes it, leftists from Snopes of all people would be expected to parrot that.

From what we know, it's a niche thing that maybe helps in some specific cancers. What makes Cuba doing it so special and you simp for it so hard?

Here's what anti-communist libertarians think of glories of Cuba's healthcare if you think leftists from Snopes are for some baffling reason not giving it a fair shake:


What's that have to do with the price of tea in China? All those things are totally irrelevant. You used a source that's complete shit. That's indisputable. And now, you're so bereft of sources you had to link to the same Reason.Com site twice to try to pad your list and make it look like you had more than you do. The fact that they rant about it without any factual basis means nothing, debunk the actual drugs Cuba's made and distributed worldwide, don't post some idiot unsourced videos.

As for Maria C. Werlau, she's the lunatic behind the conspiracy that Cuba has secret Sonic superweapons, among many, many other crazed ideas about Cuba. Her entire career is basically a series of rants about how Cuba is both super-powerful and weak at everything at the same time. If you're going to use her as a source you'd still need to accept that Cuba is vastly ahead of the US in technology because they have all those secret superweapons she rants about.


The fact is, the argument that it's all propaganda and smoke-and-mirrors is obvious bullshit, because Cuba exports their medtech worldwide. Spain, China, Ecuador, India, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Venzuela, and many others, they all import Cuban medtech. How is this possible if it's all propaganda? Wouldn't one of these countries notice their vaccines are actually bottles of snake oil? Of course they would. India has been doing Joint Ventures with Cuba, allowing Indian companies to produce Cuban medicines, for years now. Wouldn't they have noticed that the advanced processes described and that they've been using themselves all this time look more like an alchemist text? Yeah, duh. Cuba has over 2,400 medical patents outside of their own borders, did nobody, ever, notice that all those patents were BS, the studies behind them faked, and all the results from their hospitals don't match up? They would have, Cuba can't possibly be shutting them all up, only to fail to shut up crazy girl with her conspiracy theories of sonic superweapons and magic technology.

 
What's that have to do with the price of tea in China? All those things are totally irrelevant. You used a source that's complete shit. That's indisputable. And now, you're so bereft of sources you had to link to the same Reason.Com site twice to try to pad your list and make it look like you had more than you do. The fact that they rant about it without any factual basis means nothing, debunk the actual drugs Cuba's made and distributed worldwide, don't post some idiot unsourced videos.

As for Maria C. Werlau, she's the lunatic behind the conspiracy that Cuba has secret Sonic superweapons, among many, many other crazed ideas about Cuba. Her entire career is basically a series of rants about how Cuba is both super-powerful and weak at everything at the same time. If you're going to use her as a source you'd still need to accept that Cuba is vastly ahead of the US in technology because they have all those secret superweapons she rants about.


The fact is, the argument that it's all propaganda and smoke-and-mirrors is obvious bullshit, because Cuba exports their medtech worldwide. Spain, China, Ecuador, India, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Venzuela, and many others, they all import Cuban medtech. How is this possible if it's all propaganda? Wouldn't one of these countries notice their vaccines are actually bottles of snake oil? Of course they would. India has been doing Joint Ventures with Cuba, allowing Indian companies to produce Cuban medicines, for years now. Wouldn't they have noticed that the advanced processes described and that they've been using themselves all this time look more like an alchemist text? Yeah, duh. Cuba has over 2,400 medical patents outside of their own borders, did nobody, ever, notice that all those patents were BS, the studies behind them faked, and all the results from their hospitals don't match up? They would have, Cuba can't possibly be shutting them all up, only to fail to shut up crazy girl with her conspiracy theories of sonic superweapons and magic technology.

Seriously? .cu?
North Korea is great and has no problems at all!
Source: North Korean government.
Again, you are for some completely unknown to me reason falling for Cuban propaganda in an area you are even more clueless in than i am and thinking the things they are bringing up are impressive...
Which they may be, by the standards of a commie shithole, but not impressive at all by the standards of global pharma industry.
Patents granted at least are a number, so we can at least compare it instead of going full hype at every single thing like it's some breakthrough while it clealry isn't.
45,000 patents granted over a fucking single quarter globally....
Japan which can serve as an example of a major player, alone gets more than 2,400 in 3 months.
According to this the typical major pharma companies each get 200-300 new patents per quarter, so *each of them individually* matches Cuba every 2-3 years (BioCubaFarma apparently exists since 2012 to get that number, which would rightfully make it a typical mid sized pharma company out of many in the world).

Yes, India is a worldwide major cheap pharma manufacturing country that pretty much everyone uses to outsource to.
 
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Seriously? .cu?
North Korea is great and has no problems at all!
Source: North Korean government.
Again, you are for some completely unknown to me reason falling for Cuban propaganda in an area you are even more clueless in than i am and thinking the things they are bringing up are impressive...
Which they may be, by the standards of a commie shithole, but not impressive at all by the standards of global pharma industry.
Patents granted at least are a number, so we can at least compare it instead of going full hype at every single thing like it's some breakthrough while it clealry isn't.
45,000 patents granted over a fucking single quarter globally....
Japan which can serve as an example of a major player, alone gets more than 2,400 in 3 months.
According to this the typical major pharma companies each get 200-300 new patents per quarter, so *each of them individually* matches Cuba every 2-3 years (BioCubaFarma apparently exists since 2012 to get that number, which would rightfully make it a typical mid sized pharma company out of many in the world).

Yes, India is a worldwide major cheap pharma manufacturing country that pretty much everyone uses to outsource to.
Well, at least we've got you admitting how wrong you were at the start now. We've gone from "All of Cuba's medical advancements are commie propaganda" to "Well on the planetary level Cuba isn't as big as the third largest economy on the planet." Not bad progress.

Of course Cuba isn't curbstomping Japan. Cuba's entire GDP is around 100 billion while Japan is rocking four-and-a-half trillion. Japan has over eight million people employed just in their medical industry while Cuba's entire population is around eleven million. Dollar for dollar, person for person, Cuba's well ahead and you've managed to move the goalposts so far you've actually wandered back to my starting position, that Cuba's biotech industry is remarkably capable and if they had a real budget to work with, they could easily position themselves at the top.

But that Cuba is turning into a medical juggernaut, well nobody with any understanding and knowledge in the field doubts that, it's pretty common knowledge.

 
I'd bet on violent, if at all. For all the sense it makes in the very general, geopolitical view, the local political calculus says no. Why not peacefully? Well, the same reasons that prevented it for last 3 decades apply. The communist ruling class has too many skeletons in the closet, old and fresh, to "loosen the screws" on the population, which would be required to get closer with USA, never mind the whole crimes against humanity legalities combined with US politics, media, Cuban minority and so on (consider the sheer stink raised in US media about one Muslim Brotherhood buddy journo Saudis whacked). They are fine with living like a discount North Korea, complete with their rent-a-slave-doctor business they have with other third world countries. And if they were to step down, they would need to relocate to Bolivia, Venezuela or other shithole before the locals start considering introducing them to their own skeleton closet more closely, which considering the stability of these shitholes is far from a desirable option.

I seriously doubt if any likely US leader anytime soon would have the guts to go "finishing the commie business" out of own initiative, even taking an opportunity with major protests possibly happening in Cuba is far from assured, though President DeSantis unleashing the USMC on them would be very poetic.

The only thing i can see getting USA to intervene hard is if Cuban commies go full retard, do too big a deal with China, and cause a Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0.
Wasn't China thinking of putting troops in Cuba?
 
Wasn't China thinking of putting troops in Cuba?
China's had a spy base on Cuba for years, though the Biden Administration only admitted to it very recently.


Currently there's talks about a joint training facility, which would mean stationing troops and that has some alarmed.
 
Well, at least we've got you admitting how wrong you were at the start now. We've gone from "All of Cuba's medical advancements are commie propaganda" to "Well on the planetary level Cuba isn't as big as the third largest economy on the planet." Not bad progress.
No, that's not what i said. I never said they have no medical advancements, just that you are hyping up their patent with some application in a niche cancer treatment area that many others also have patents in as if they had some kind of cancer breakthrough, sorry but not sorry about raining on the commie's parade.
And no, it's not that "Cuba isn't as big as the third largest economy on the planet", it's that "Cuba can'd do in 12 years what the third largest economy on the planet does in 3 months", which even after correcting for population difference doesn't make Cuba exceptional in medical research, or even equal to what a first world country of this standard would be expected to do (Japan has about 11x the population), then the math says they should have about about 4 quarters worth of Japan's output in 12 years, but they have less than 1.
Even if you corrected for GDP per capita proportionally, (Japan has about 2x in PPP and 3x in nominal), Cuba is underperforming a bit.
Of course Cuba isn't curbstomping Japan. Cuba's entire GDP is around 100 billion while Japan is rocking four-and-a-half trillion. Japan has over eight million people employed just in their medical industry while Cuba's entire population is around eleven million. Dollar for dollar, person for person, Cuba's well ahead and you've managed to move the goalposts so far you've actually wandered back to my starting position, that Cuba's biotech industry is remarkably capable and if they had a real budget to work with, they could easily position themselves at the top.
Dollar for dollar, person for person, Cuba is well ahead of...
Yeah, i like this line of argumentation, what are they well ahead of? Somalia? Sure.
But here's what you said:
Despite operating on a budget of nothing and having to build their own technology from scratch, those chickens have finally come to roost and Cuban medicine is at the top of the world, with some of the top scientists in every field.
Does "patent output almost proportional to Cuba's size and mediocre GDP per capita" sound like equivalent to "Cuban medicine is at the top of the world"?
But that Cuba is turning into a medical juggernaut, well nobody with any understanding and knowledge in the field doubts that, it's pretty common knowledge.
Yeah, this, you are hyping up Cuba's perfectly mediocre achievements like it's a commie version of Israel, Ireland or Japan.
Source: Soros shills
Basically you are falling for a large media scheme of various assorted western leftist factions (some also notably infiltrating scientific media, as you can see from climate catastrophism common in them) to get the West to stop sanctioning the commie government of Cuba, and they are dangling the oh so typical for western leftists "muh healthcare, muh NHS" argument in a Cuban variant "they are a commie medical superpower!".

[h3][/h3]The country was the first to eliminate HIV transmission from mother to child.
Well, for one, i believe that, after all they are willing and able to abort all children who do suffer from such transmission, as shown in the article i linked for Cuba's creative use of forcible abortion in pursuit of improving infant mortality statistics and reducing costs of caring for sickly infants.
Congratulations, ABC's leftists shills, for praising the more pragmatic, commie version of Lebensborn.
 
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No, that's not what i said. I never said they have no medical advancements, just that you are hyping up their patent with some application in a niche cancer treatment area that many others also have patents in as if they had some kind of cancer breakthrough, sorry but not sorry about raining on the commie's parade.
Oh my god, are you seriously so uninformed on this issue that you think the cancer treatment is the only medicine they have? Even when I mentioned others? Here, have some more.

First country to devise a means to prevent HIV from passing from mother to child in the womb.
First, and so far only, country to create a vaccine for Meningitis B.
Developed Racotumomab, a cancer treatment for tumors.
Developed CimaVax-EGF, an entirely different cancer treatment.
Developed Nimotuzumab, yet another cancer treatment, this one for squamous cancers.
Developed Nepidermin, a treatment for diabetic feet.
Developed Policosanol, a dietary health supplement that treats blood cholesterol.
Developed Surfacen, a lung treatment for respiratory distress syndrome in infants.
Developed Soberana, a COVID Vaccine that needs no boosters and actually stops the disease... notably they had it out well before Pfizer was able to make one.

This isn't an exhaustive list, this is just several notable accomplishments.

Cuba is a notable center for medical tourism, with many Latin Americans, Canadians, and Europeans going there to get superior health care.

And no, it's not that "Cuba isn't as big as the third largest economy on the planet", it's that "Cuba can'd do in 12 years what the third largest economy on the planet does in 3 months", which even after correcting for population difference doesn't make Cuba exceptional in medical research, or even equal to what a first world country of this standard would be expected to do (Japan has about 11x the population), then the math says they should have about about 4 quarters worth of Japan's output in 12 years, but they have less than 1.
Even if you corrected for GDP per capita proportionally, (Japan has about 2x in PPP and 3x in nominal), Cuba is underperforming a bit.

Dollar for dollar, person for person, Cuba is well ahead of...
Yeah, i like this line of argumentation, what are they well ahead of? Somalia? Sure.

Does "patent output almost proportional to Cuba's size and mediocre GDP per capita" sound like equivalent to "Cuban medicine is at the top of the world"?

Yeah, this, you are hyping up Cuba's perfectly mediocre achievements like it's a commie version of Israel, Ireland or Japan.

Source: Soros shills
Basically you are falling for a large media scheme of various assorted western leftist factions (some also notably infiltrating scientific media, as you can see from climate catastrophism common in them) to get the West to stop sanctioning the commie government of Cuba, and they are dangling the oh so typical for western leftists "muh healthcare, muh NHS" argument in a Cuban variant "they are a commie medical superpower!".
So let's take a look at your "but muh communism" arguments here. You've tried to make the case that sheer number of patents is the only important thing, while poo-pooing actual advancements. Let's examine that assumption. According to your own source, during the same time period, China was granted 18,062 pharma patents. Do you therefore hold that China's Commie medicine is several times superior to Japan's? Do we get to adjust for per-capita income as you suggested (Japan's is about 2.5 times China's) and say China gets to claim the equivalent of over 45,000 patents a quarter? How does that not mean Communist Medicine is clearly vastly superior, according to your logic?
 
China's had a spy base on Cuba for years, though the Biden Administration only admitted to it very recently.


Currently there's talks about a joint training facility, which would mean stationing troops and that has some alarmed.
Let's invade.
Right fucking now
 
Oh my god, are you seriously so uninformed on this issue that you think the cancer treatment is the only medicine they have? Even when I mentioned others? Here, have some more.

First country to devise a means to prevent HIV from passing from mother to child in the womb.
No, i don't think Cuba invented abortion, they do use it a lot though.
And no, Cuba has no monopoly on "modern anti-viral drugs".

First, and so far only, country to create a vaccine for Meningitis B.
Oh come on, now you are just proving that you are repeating propaganda claims that can be easily countered with fucking wikipedia.

Wow, i guess New Zealand and GlaxoSmithKline are just a fictional country and a fictional company.
Sorry, i can't take New Zealand denialists seriously.

Developed Racotumomab, a cancer treatment for tumors.
Developed CimaVax-EGF, an entirely different cancer treatment.
Developed Nimotuzumab, yet another cancer treatment, this one for squamous cancers.
Developed Nepidermin, a treatment for diabetic feet.
Developed Policosanol, a dietary health supplement that treats blood cholesterol.
Developed Surfacen, a lung treatment for respiratory distress syndrome in infants.
Developed Soberana, a COVID Vaccine that needs no boosters and actually stops the disease... notably they had it out well before Pfizer was able to make one.
OMG, a mid income commie country produces some drugs!
This isn't an exhaustive list, this is just several notable accomplishments.

Cuba is a notable center for medical tourism, with many Latin Americans, Canadians, and Europeans going there to get superior health care.
Being cheap and forcing doctors to work for cheap is not something that can be qualified as an achievement. Just like we all buy lots of shit made in China...
So let's take a look at your "but muh communism" arguments here. You've tried to make the case that sheer number of patents is the only important thing, while poo-pooing actual advancements. Let's examine that assumption. According to your own source, during the same time period, China was granted 18,062 pharma patents. Do you therefore hold that China's Commie medicine is several times superior to Japan's? Do we get to adjust for per-capita income as you suggested (Japan's is about 2.5 times China's) and say China gets to claim the equivalent of over 45,000 patents a quarter? How does that not mean Communist Medicine is clearly vastly superior, according to your logic?
Yeah mediocre country has a handful of minor advancements, like dozens upon dozens of other mediocre countries, but it's propagandizing them like it's the fucking medical SpaceX, because it's a commie shithole who needs that for propaganda, while for other countries, that's tuesday.

You brought up the patent numbers like its decisive, and yeah, China has actually globally significant pharma sector, unlike Cuba.
Wow, whole 25 million dollars of exports!
Compare to Poland:
4.2 billion dollars, and no one even is hyping up Poland as the "medical juggernaut", wonder why?
For comparison China got 36 billion exports and an actual heavyweight in the field, Germany, 115 billion, despite having lower GDP and much lower population than China.
 
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Let's invade.
Right fucking now
Invading Cuba would be counter productive at this point.

Instead approach the Cuban people, not the leadeership, via membership for Cuban domestic teams in the MLB and minor leagues, as well maybe a NFL exhibition game or two.

Also, maybe bombard them with images of the tofu dreg cities in the CCP and the 'gutter oil' used to cook in CCP cities.

Then maybe see about a medical travel exemption, and bam, we can finally start peeling Cuba away from the old Soviet sphere, without needing to invade.

The CCP troops however need to be a breaking point; if Cuba hosts them and allows anything close to a Cuban Missile 2.0 build up to occur, then maybe we have to remove the CCP's access to Panama via blockading them out west/south of the Pacific side.
 
Invading Cuba would be counter productive at this point.

Instead approach the Cuban people, not the leadeership, via membership for Cuban domestic teams in the MLB and minor leagues, as well maybe a NFL exhibition game or two.

Also, maybe bombard them with images of the tofu dreg cities in the CCP and the 'gutter oil' used to cook in CCP cities.

Then maybe see about a medical travel exemption, and bam, we can finally start peeling Cuba away from the old Soviet sphere, without needing to invade.
Not gonna work. The shitholes that persist are getting quite good at internal political control.
According to this, Cuba has internet access restrictions roughly on par with wartime Russia, which is slightly less than China's.
Knowing commie countries, all sports people, especially if allowed to travel abroad, are carefully vetted by political authorities.
They will not let you "approach the Cuban people", and especially not to keep doing that if it shows any signs of success.
 
Not gonna work. The shitholes that persist are getting quite good at internal political control.
According to this, Cuba has internet access restrictions roughly on par with wartime Russia, which is slightly less than China's.
Knowing commie countries, all sports people, especially if allowed to travel abroad, are carefully vetted by political authorities.
They will not let you "approach the Cuban people", and especially not to keep doing that if it shows any signs of success.

honestly Cuba as it is today only exists because of historical inertia and the lack of fucks given by the US. The moment you get competent leadership that cares that place gets regime changed.
 
Let's invade.
Right fucking now
And how well has that turned out for us before?

Like I know China is internally a vicious oligarchy, but have we completely forgotten how to do any kind of soft power? For Christ's sake, we could've built our own silk road in Africa decades ago if we wanted.

Cuba is basically in our swimming pool, the US should've had a plan to seduce them the moment Castro kicked the bucket. Socialism is like an abusive husband, it thrives best when it can keep its spouse isolated and gaslighted about what a normal relationship is supposed to look like.
 

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