peter Zeihan 2020

Yeah and China is going to collapse any day now. Annnny day now. Just like it was supposed to years ago.
A national collapse is a years and even decades long process but China defiantly isn't having a good time right now.
The CCP is not going to collapse; it'll go full North Korea before it falls in on itself, and use military force domestically to keep things running.

Now if say the Three Gorges Dam was to fail due to it's shoddy construction, and wipe out a large part of the CCP core areas, then maybe we would see the nation fracture a bit, but it would probably still reform into a NK like state and go from there.

Waiting on the CCP to collapse, so the RoC can retake the mainland, is a nice fantasy but probably won't happen.
 
Economic collapse leading to change in government, yeah I can see that.

Could it swing back towards a better economy? Sure…. maybe. People in China started moving wealth out of China before covid, then the act of moving money out of China became a crime.

Not sure if it was a crime for everyone or a crime for”everyone “. Like private jets which are totally illegal for everyone except the 3k-unknown number of people that have private jets.
 
The CCP is not going to collapse; it'll go full North Korea before it falls in on itself, and use military force domestically to keep things running.

Now if say the Three Gorges Dam was to fail due to it's shoddy construction, and wipe out a large part of the CCP core areas, then maybe we would see the nation fracture a bit, but it would probably still reform into a NK like state and go from there.

Waiting on the CCP to collapse, so the RoC can retake the mainland, is a nice fantasy but probably won't happen.
Still, having to emulate North Korea would be a massive step down for China, and would probably spell the end of their global power and influence.
 
What about Zimbabwe and other progressive countries elites? who would help them hold power?

Wait,Biden would,as long as they become lgbt.
So,notching change there.
You assume I want the ‘progressive’ elites to remain in power. Or are you being sarcastic here?
 


So he thinks Trump vs Biden 2024 could see a blue Texas, because swing voters hate Trump, and Trump only won Texas by a few points last time.

If Texas goes blue in 2024, the GOP is finished as a meaningful political vehicle.
 


So he thinks Trump vs Biden 2024 could see a blue Texas, because swing voters hate Trump, and Trump only won Texas by a few points last time.

If Texas goes blue in 2024, the GOP is finished as a meaningful political vehicle.


I really don't think that's the case the left is badly mismanaging the cities and activists are really pissing people off.

Its going to come down to the economy I think rather then this.
 


So he thinks Trump vs Biden 2024 could see a blue Texas, because swing voters hate Trump, and Trump only won Texas by a few points last time.

If Texas goes blue in 2024, the GOP is finished as a meaningful political vehicle.

Again, Peter thinks his fellow technocrats are being completely honest when they provide information, because corrupt public institutions are something that happens to other countries. The bureaucratic state has settled on the narrative they'll use to explain any discrepancies in voting and that's what all organs of the state, including the ones Zeihan gets his information from, are forwarding. I'm also certain that everyone in his friends and associates group hates Trump and parrots this narrative, populist movements aren't well known for having influence inside the Intelligentsia. I hope Trump wins in 2024 just to see how they spin this narrative.

I really don't think that's the case the left is badly mismanaging the cities and activists are really pissing people off.

Its going to come down to the economy I think rather then this.
Urban political machines don't require the will of the constituents to do anything. Do you think even Californians voted that mummy Feinstein in again entirely of their own free will? To beat the Democrats the Republicans will have to swamp the engines of corruption with legitimate votes, which is why Trump is just shrugging and joining in on the ballot harvesting.
 


essentially India doesn't really play well with others but their going to be all right because they are a great power.

Also Biden isn't getting what he wants out of them.
 
They can drag out concessions to get things they want in exchange for things americans want like containing china. They can essentially get us to pay them to do something that is in their own interest.
Seems reasonable.China would alway be their enemies.
 


essentially India doesn't really play well with others but their going to be all right because they are a great power.

Also Biden isn't getting what he wants out of them.

India has an entire continent's worth of resources, people, and problems at home, so there's not really a reason to go borrowing trouble elsewhere. The "West" is also starting to grumble about the activities of Hindu supremacists (when they attack Muslims at any rate) so it's starting to cool the already tepid relations between India and the West. Without the threat of China, right next door India could just slam the front gate and tell everyone to bugger off and especially the British.
 

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