peter Zeihan 2020
- Thread starter Cherico
- Start date
Actually, going after pre-nuclear shipwrecks for their steel has more to do with pre-nuke steel being needed for very sensitive instruments, and it's...very difficult to filter out the various decay products from nuclear testing which exist in most modern steel, or forge new steel that does not have any of the decay products get into during mining, processing, or forging.
It's why a number of warship wrecks and pre-1945 steel ship hulls in shallow water have been stripped down to almost nothing by scavengers and locals who sell the raw steel on the black market.
that's really the case in any communist country, the whole ethos of the ideology kills any desire for excellece and replaces it with a good enough mindset. Because taking the time to make some thing good gets punished, and might even get you killed while making something that fills the quota and works just well enough to get the asshole comisar off your back lets you live another day.
PeaceMaker 03
Well-known member
Not like Russians are not experienced with starving Ukrainians.
Although I disagree with his assessment of how smart Russia is at attacking infrastructure and food networks. Ukraine has suffered under Russia before, does anyone believe it will be better if Russia wins?
Although I disagree with his assessment of how smart Russia is at attacking infrastructure and food networks. Ukraine has suffered under Russia before, does anyone believe it will be better if Russia wins?
Yeah, there is a price to that. Every expensive and hard to replace cruise missile going into civilian infrastructure is one that cannot hit an ammo dump, training facility, command post, barrack or armor maintenance workshop. Russian strike-reconnisance complex is still well in XX century though, and not even at the tail end of it, so it really struggles with arranging attacks on those, so they shoot what they can hit, civilians, hence the jokes about Russian military being unmatched when it comes to fighting civilians.
Those other infrastructural targets are not the most expensive, the power network was a pretty smart (or least wasteful at least) and as such obvious choice to begin with, it works on expensive yet delicate and hard to replace pieces of kits destroying which can cut off whole cities, yet the results are kinda disappointing compared to the predictions - with agriculture or the like, it's going to get only less effective, as such targets would be more spread out and have their own potential replacements and alternatives that weren't strained yet, while Russian missile stockpiles aren't getting any bigger.
As Zeihan points out, hitting the grain is more about exercising power over the nations Ukraine would have exported it to, namely Egypt, and the Suez isn't any less important now than it has been for decades.
Sounds like the US needs to be looking at ag aid to nations who may lose their export loads from Ukraine to Russian missiles.
American farmers are going to make bank.
No, We don't have the ag surpluses we used to do to the stupidity of the Dems during the Wu Flu and due to people like Bill Gates buying up farmland left and right to use to grow the stuff to make his fake eggs and fake meat.
Funny enough, many of these countries are Russia/China allies, and may find themselves to be the natural choices to take the hit from Ukraine's export reductions.
At least some of the fake food is made in China. Oh the irony, who else would they go to for expertise in making fake food cheaply...
Beyond Meat, Rivals Rely on Chinese Ingredients, Opening Food-Safety Debate
China's food-processing factories provide most of what goes into vegan burger patties and other meat replacements made by market leaders Beyond Meat and Impossible foods—an arrangement that could damage their standing among consumers in the coronavirus age.
www.newsweek.com
Prince Ire
Section XIII
And yet they're still the number one steel producer in the world, producing over half the world's steel. #2 is India, with a tenth of China's production.
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
Quantity is not the same thing as quality. Some of what they produce is doubtless of decent quality, but the endemic corruption of communist culture hits them everywhere.
Some times you can make a pretty good living of good enough.
bintananth
behind a desk
Le parfait est l'ennemi du bien.
Manufacturing tolerances exist for a reason and if people don't regularly say "fuck it, that's good enough" absolutely nothing gets done.
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
There's a difference though, between 'good enough' and 'as cheap as we can get away with.' Chinese business practices are infamous for the latter, which is where we get things like tofu-dreg construction from.
PeaceMaker 03
Well-known member
I really like Peter Zeihan, but often his military knowledge is lacking in comparison to his other talents. I am starting to think his primary military advisor is someone with lots of time in DC and little time in places where mortar fire is more common then campaigning in locals where waiters serve flutes of bubbly.
This is my view of what Peter is missing in his model of the coming campaign season.
Peters view of Russia ignores issues like their new troop call up is short of trained veterans to be cadre for the spring offensive. The Russians expanded their cadre trying to fix their last spring offensive.
The last call-up of 300,000 men was lacking ~100k troops; the convict call out of 30000 dregs just freed 24 convict a to freedom after 6 months of fighting. Less than 1%, casualties for the convicts may have been 80%.
Nearly half of the Russian contract soldiers,( professional, not conscripts) have refused to extend their contracts. I should say the ones still alive seemed to have issue with not being paid and were left to live off the land for food while in Ukraine.
Russia is having to pull out old T-62s because their newer tanks had not been maintained in the depot and/or high-tech components were looted by the people that “maintained the tanks” for profit. Thermal sights seem to be an issue. Items that need western parts that are not being sold to Russia currently. Not sure the T-62s in storage ever had a main gun upgrade to 125 mm. That means ammo is most likely 40+ years old.
Russia had ~ a million military-aged males flee the country. That is over a year's intake for conscripts. Even if they can reach the goal of 500k troops for the spring offensive the Russians will have an army that is the equivalent of PFC’s and 2nd Lieutenants with very little combat training, little support, with questionable leadership. I doubt the new Russian troops will be technically proficient and I see no way for them to be tactically proficient.
Equipment that is 3 generations old, not maintained for decades, ammo, and expendable items twice the age of the untrained soldiers being led by political reliable appointees sounds like a swell time to be at the end of the broken manufacturing/logistic/transportation system.
All without the belief of defending the homeland to stiffen the Russian soldiers.
This is my view of what Peter is missing in his model of the coming campaign season.
Peters view of Russia ignores issues like their new troop call up is short of trained veterans to be cadre for the spring offensive. The Russians expanded their cadre trying to fix their last spring offensive.
The last call-up of 300,000 men was lacking ~100k troops; the convict call out of 30000 dregs just freed 24 convict a to freedom after 6 months of fighting. Less than 1%, casualties for the convicts may have been 80%.
Nearly half of the Russian contract soldiers,( professional, not conscripts) have refused to extend their contracts. I should say the ones still alive seemed to have issue with not being paid and were left to live off the land for food while in Ukraine.
Russia is having to pull out old T-62s because their newer tanks had not been maintained in the depot and/or high-tech components were looted by the people that “maintained the tanks” for profit. Thermal sights seem to be an issue. Items that need western parts that are not being sold to Russia currently. Not sure the T-62s in storage ever had a main gun upgrade to 125 mm. That means ammo is most likely 40+ years old.
Russia had ~ a million military-aged males flee the country. That is over a year's intake for conscripts. Even if they can reach the goal of 500k troops for the spring offensive the Russians will have an army that is the equivalent of PFC’s and 2nd Lieutenants with very little combat training, little support, with questionable leadership. I doubt the new Russian troops will be technically proficient and I see no way for them to be tactically proficient.
Equipment that is 3 generations old, not maintained for decades, ammo, and expendable items twice the age of the untrained soldiers being led by political reliable appointees sounds like a swell time to be at the end of the broken manufacturing/logistic/transportation system.
All without the belief of defending the homeland to stiffen the Russian soldiers.
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