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peter Zeihan 2020

bullethead

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Our boy Peter shows up on Breaking Points, the show with one good host and one leftist stan, talking about his new book:

-He calls Biden a populist because he's reinforcing Trump's policies with legal documentation (he points out the China tariffs.)
-The Black Sea no-go zone basically means wheat prices quadruple, fertilizer shortages will reduce global crop yields
-South Korea is his case study for demographic decline and how quickly it happens.
-All the -isms will break down because they all depend on population/economic growth.
-Russian crude going offline means Europe gets with the ex-colonies, which takes oil away from East Asia, and Japan is the only one that has a navy that can protect their convoys.
-China can't reach the materials to go green either, and might deindustrialize them.
-China's monetary supply is 2x ours is to force capital into companies to employ people, they're trying to get things to establish nest eggs for themselves
-Chinese companies can't survive in the global market without more money supply
-Japan's economy did this kind of thing, and it caused their long stagnation
-The Breaking Points folks will try to get him back for more content, which is always good, because Peter is better off in long form discussions than his talks.
 

f1onagher

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I was excited to see him on Breaking Points since its a less wonkish outlet than he normally does. I hope to see him on for a longer interview too. This stuff is right up Saager's alley and one of Krystal's few redeeming talents is a decent ability to interview. It would make for a good discussion on its own and do a better job of inserting Zeihan's thought processes into something resembling the mainstream. I continue to be baffled that no one is discussing why Russia does what it does beyond some very shallow pejoratives about Putin and Nazis.
 

bullethead

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Zeihan does great when whenever he's on a podcast and can just get into a back and forth conversation with the hosts.

There was this podcast he stopped by a few months ago now, when the war first started, and it's pretty damn good, because he's not just regurgitating the same few bits of his talks.

I think that's part of why he's not broken into the mainstream - if you pick any recording of his talks from the past 3-4 years, it's basically the same for the first half hour, if not more.
 

bullethead

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Peter Zeihan on The Realignment:


TL;DW:
-2019 was the best year in the 21st century b/c of all the demographic changes removing capital from the system
-3 countries in the world can fend off a functioning Ford class carrier
-Need hundreds to 1000 destroyers to patrol the oceans to protect global commerce, USN has 70
-No country can take up the role of global commerce protection due to the 10s of thousands of cargo ships floating around
-Chinese naval vessels mostly too small and short ranged to provide commerce protection
-Local regional powers will carve out their spheres of influence
-Chinese manufacturing will collapse, Xi is already killing it, and needs raw materials/exports
-Projects 80% reduction in standard of living, 50% reduction in population
-Greeks have started seizing Iranian cargo ships
-European companies can no longer insure Russian oil shipments, which are 95% of the current market
-Sovereign indemnification could break the Russians
-Russia's terrain makes it easy for mobile invaders to beat on static Russian defenders
-Russia has no chance of preventing a future invasion due to demographic free fall, so they invaded Ukraine to get defensive depth and position forces at gateways to Russian territory
-Russia won't stop when it gets all of Ukraine, which is why NATO is helping Ukraine - 5 NATO members in danger
-Asia had highest population density pre-industrialization, industrialization/globalization led to mega-cities dependent on globalized supply chains
-Asia has the fastest demographic collapse in the world
-China, S. Korea, Japan dependent on export economy to survive
-S. Korea, Japan, and Taiwan have too many people on the cusp of retirement to sustain production
-Chinese wage growth means its cheaper to make things in North America, gutting their manufacturing advantage once factories are set up
-US geography led to thinking everything will get better, so when it doesn't, we lose our shit
-America overreacts to problems
-Tarrifs against Chinese will never end, military disposition changing away from supporting Chinese trade, China might not survive this decade
-The Chinese use the Russians as an example to learn from, but all of China's assumptions have been proven false
-Sanctions against China would break them in a year
-Boycotts scare Xi
-Xi purging people has led to cult of personality that can't figure out ways to deal with these revelations
-Cornered powers lash out, declining powers that can't grab what they want militarily die
-China can't invade somewhere to solve their problems
-Taiwan no longer provides strategic benefits to China
-The Han ethnicity is doomed due to the demographic collapse
-Chinese pop decline will not be as fast as Black Death, but more wholistic
-Removing industrial infrastructure forces areas to revert to pre-industrial population patterns
-China's rapid industrialization wiped out the skill sets for large scale pre-industrial agriculture
-In a decade, North China might be pre-industrial, neo-Maoist tyranny; some city-states like Shanghai will partner with foreign countries/companies to survive, which is the norm for most of their history
-Labor cost has surpassed labor productivity in China by a factor of 6+x, automation can't help them because it has to be imported from other countries, can't train people fast enough, machinery and supporting it is expensive AF
-US is world's biggest energy and agricultural producer/exporter, baby boomers had kids
-US biggest challenge is rebuilding industrial infrastructure before China's implodes, shortages will hit and create major inflationary period for 5 years
-Supply chain will be largely in North America, once it's fully set up
-Inflation was kept low by dumping commodities from former USSR on global market
-Since 2015, president has power to summarily bar crude oil exports
-Any president who triggers it would drop gas prices in US, fuck over the entire rest of non-North America world
-Invest in fertilizer plants
-Apple has doubled down on China, when it collapses, iPhones will not be available
-Android phones are Korea dependent, so that market is vulnerable to shortages
-Steel shortages will be an issue, due to Russia + Ukraine being leading exporters of pig iron
-US is best steel recycler
-US doesn't smelt iron ore, we use pig iron to make high quality products
-Belarus, Ukraine, Russia = 40% of phosphate fertilzer production, takes a decade to get phosphate mines online
-Nitrogen fertilizer takes 3 years to get online, Europe isn't setting any up due to natural gas shortages
-China banned phosphate export as a national security issue
-Crops will probably switch to less fertilizer intensive ones like hay, or fertilizer use will be cut back (poor countries)
-Decentralized manufacturing aided by CNC and 3D printing tech will help mitigate the loss of convenience from globalization's collapse, 1/3 of consumer goods will be covered by this
-Almost out of US political reorganization
-A third party might exist for a bit before breaking down back into the two party system
-People moving around is going to be less prevalent
-Peter wants to grab people from Ukraine and Russia to bolster demographics and skills
-New powers won't rise this decade
-Japan's aging is pretty slow, they've successfully automated while capital was good, offshored manufacturing to countries with better demographics, cut deal with Trump for strategic relevance
-Nobody can replace/displace US on global stage
-Next five years will be wild ride, record growth + lots of inflation
-New rules will be made
 

Terthna

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Peter Zeihan on The Realignment:


TL;DW:
-2019 was the best year in the 21st century b/c of all the demographic changes removing capital from the system
-3 countries in the world can fend off a functioning Ford class carrier
-Need hundreds to 1000 destroyers to patrol the oceans to protect global commerce, USN has 70
-No country can take up the role of global commerce protection due to the 10s of thousands of cargo ships floating around
-Chinese naval vessels mostly too small and short ranged to provide commerce protection
-Local regional powers will carve out their spheres of influence
-Chinese manufacturing will collapse, Xi is already killing it, and needs raw materials/exports
-Projects 80% reduction in standard of living, 50% reduction in population
-Greeks have started seizing Iranian cargo ships
-European companies can no longer insure Russian oil shipments, which are 95% of the current market
-Sovereign indemnification could break the Russians
-Russia's terrain makes it easy for mobile invaders to beat on static Russian defenders
-Russia has no chance of preventing a future invasion due to demographic free fall, so they invaded Ukraine to get defensive depth and position forces at gateways to Russian territory
-Russia won't stop when it gets all of Ukraine, which is why NATO is helping Ukraine - 5 NATO members in danger
-Asia had highest population density pre-industrialization, industrialization/globalization led to mega-cities dependent on globalized supply chains
-Asia has the fastest demographic collapse in the world
-China, S. Korea, Japan dependent on export economy to survive
-S. Korea, Japan, and Taiwan have too many people on the cusp of retirement to sustain production
-Chinese wage growth means its cheaper to make things in North America, gutting their manufacturing advantage once factories are set up
-US geography led to thinking everything will get better, so when it doesn't, we lose our shit
-America overreacts to problems
-Tarrifs against Chinese will never end, military disposition changing away from supporting Chinese trade, China might not survive this decade
-The Chinese use the Russians as an example to learn from, but all of China's assumptions have been proven false
-Sanctions against China would break them in a year
-Boycotts scare Xi
-Xi purging people has led to cult of personality that can't figure out ways to deal with these revelations
-Cornered powers lash out, declining powers that can't grab what they want militarily die
-China can't invade somewhere to solve their problems
-Taiwan no longer provides strategic benefits to China
-The Han ethnicity is doomed due to the demographic collapse
-Chinese pop decline will not be as fast as Black Death, but more wholistic
-Removing industrial infrastructure forces areas to revert to pre-industrial population patterns
-China's rapid industrialization wiped out the skill sets for large scale pre-industrial agriculture
-In a decade, North China might be pre-industrial, neo-Maoist tyranny; some city-states like Shanghai will partner with foreign countries/companies to survive, which is the norm for most of their history
-Labor cost has surpassed labor productivity in China by a factor of 6+x, automation can't help them because it has to be imported from other countries, can't train people fast enough, machinery and supporting it is expensive AF
-US is world's biggest energy and agricultural producer/exporter, baby boomers had kids
-US biggest challenge is rebuilding industrial infrastructure before China's implodes, shortages will hit and create major inflationary period for 5 years
-Supply chain will be largely in North America, once it's fully set up
-Inflation was kept low by dumping commodities from former USSR on global market
-Since 2015, president has power to summarily bar crude oil exports
-Any president who triggers it would drop gas prices in US, fuck over the entire rest of non-North America world
-Invest in fertilizer plants
-Apple has doubled down on China, when it collapses, iPhones will not be available
-Android phones are Korea dependent, so that market is vulnerable to shortages
-Steel shortages will be an issue, due to Russia + Ukraine being leading exporters of pig iron
-US is best steel recycler
-US doesn't smelt iron ore, we use pig iron to make high quality products
-Belarus, Ukraine, Russia = 40% of phosphate fertilzer production, takes a decade to get phosphate mines online
-Nitrogen fertilizer takes 3 years to get online, Europe isn't setting any up due to natural gas shortages
-China banned phosphate export as a national security issue
-Crops will probably switch to less fertilizer intensive ones like hay, or fertilizer use will be cut back (poor countries)
-Decentralized manufacturing aided by CNC and 3D printing tech will help mitigate the loss of convenience from globalization's collapse, 1/3 of consumer goods will be covered by this
-Almost out of US political reorganization
-A third party might exist for a bit before breaking down back into the two party system
-People moving around is going to be less prevalent
-Peter wants to grab people from Ukraine and Russia to bolster demographics and skills
-New powers won't rise this decade
-Japan's aging is pretty slow, they've successfully automated while capital was good, offshored manufacturing to countries with better demographics, cut deal with Trump for strategic relevance
-Nobody can replace/displace US on global stage
-Next five years will be wild ride, record growth + lots of inflation
-New rules will be made
And again, he proves ignorant of the albatross around America's neck; its establishment elite, who will do everything they can to defend and prop up China, while they tear America apart at the seams. Meaning whatever advantages he thinks we have, will be summarily destroyed and tossed into the gutter so long as they maintain control.
 

Cherico

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And again, he proves ignorant of the albatross around America's neck; its establishment elite, who will do everything they can to defend and prop up China, while they tear America apart at the seams. Meaning whatever advantages he thinks we have, will be summarily destroyed and tossed into the gutter so long as they maintain control.
The Roman republic was also a hot mess towards the end it still ended up unifying the Mediterranean world.

Because it's not just America that's fucked but the entire Western world. And the winner of our present shit show won't be the best of the best but the country that's the least fucked up.
 

JagerIV

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TL;DW:
-3 countries in the world can fend off a functioning Ford class carrier
-Need hundreds to 1000 destroyers to patrol the oceans to protect global commerce, USN has 70
-No country can take up the role of global commerce protection due to the 10s of thousands of cargo ships floating around
Yeah, when people make such self evidently wrong statements, off the bat, it undermines everything else he says.

1) A Ford Class carrier is 50-70 aircraft, practically. Being a mobile aircraft carrier has strengths and weaknesses vs ground ones. There are about 20 countries with that many combat aircraft. That's what you need to at least heavily deter a Ford.

2) This is an obvious nonsense. What exactly does he think global commerce is going to be protected against? Pirates don't take a huge amount of ships to protect against, and if a small criminal element, aren't all that threatening anyways. A serious pirate problem more or less requires some element of state sponsorship, like the Barbaries, and that is solved by putting pressure on the nation: if India for example allowed open season on Chinese shipping, that could be a big problem for China, but its not one that would be solved by some super dooper fleet either. Its by either bribing or beating India until they don't support their pirate fleet.

3) The number of cargo ships doen't really matter to global commerce protection, its your ability to hit pirate bases. And being able to pressure states to not mess with your ships. There may not be a strong enough country to universally impose their will on all nations, but that is a completely separate issue.
 

bullethead

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What exactly does he think global commerce is going to be protected against?
Given his whole thesis is "the globalist system is collapsing," the answer is "literally anyone who has any incentive to fuck with global trade in energy and other key resources via hitting the sea lanes."

So, for example, if literally anyone wanted to fuck over China even harder at any and all costs, they could just blow up the tankers bringing petroleum to China or export goods out of China once they pass out of the PLAN's operating range.
1) A Ford Class carrier is 50-70 aircraft, practically. Being a mobile aircraft carrier has strengths and weaknesses vs ground ones. There are about 20 countries with that many combat aircraft. That's what you need to at least heavily deter a Ford.
I was trying to keep pace with the discussion and not have to rewind too much, but IIRC, it was something about the pace of sortieing or some other metric of military output/performance that led him to say that.
 

LordsFire

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1) A Ford Class carrier is 50-70 aircraft, practically. Being a mobile aircraft carrier has strengths and weaknesses vs ground ones. There are about 20 countries with that many combat aircraft. That's what you need to at least heavily deter a Ford.
Your other points have some merit, but I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one.

It isn't just that the Ford can pack in 70 aircraft, it's also what kind of aircraft, how skilled the aircrews are, what ordinance they can carry, what data networks they're linked into, and what the enemy's version of the same is.

And bluntly put, most nations don't have aircraft/ordinance advanced enough, and pilots experienced enough, to avoid getting cut to pieces by Super Hornets, much less the F-35Cs that are starting to get into service.

Knowing Zeihan, he's probably 'rounding in favor,' so the number is probably more like 4 or 5 if you count nations that could inflict serious losses in the process of having their air force wiped out, but it's still going to be closer to 3 than 20.
 

Cherico

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Your other points have some merit, but I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one.

It isn't just that the Ford can pack in 70 aircraft, it's also what kind of aircraft, how skilled the aircrews are, what ordinance they can carry, what data networks they're linked into, and what the enemy's version of the same is.

And bluntly put, most nations don't have aircraft/ordinance advanced enough, and pilots experienced enough, to avoid getting cut to pieces by Super Hornets, much less the F-35Cs that are starting to get into service.

Knowing Zeihan, he's probably 'rounding in favor,' so the number is probably more like 4 or 5 if you count nations that could inflict serious losses in the process of having their air force wiped out, but it's still going to be closer to 3 than 20.
it does not take that much ordinance to take down an incredibly slow moving super tanker on the open seas.

For example take Ukraine, they are being invaded this is litteral war, the only insurance that covers the super tankers coming out of a russian state program. All they need is a couple of fishing boats with hidden Tow missles you wait until those super tankers are on the open sea and then you blow them the fuck up.

Thats now millions upon millions of dollars on the ocean floor and the russian government is now on the hook for all of it. You only need to sink a few of them to utterly fuck Russias fincial situation. Yeah its an act of war but since Ukraines being invaded....

and that's just one example.
 

PeaceMaker 03

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Your other points have some merit, but I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one.

It isn't just that the Ford can pack in 70 aircraft, it's also what kind of aircraft, how skilled the aircrews are, what ordinance they can carry, what data networks they're linked into, and what the enemy's version of the same is.

And bluntly put, most nations don't have aircraft/ordinance advanced enough, and pilots experienced enough, to avoid getting cut to pieces by Super Hornets, much less the F-35Cs that are starting to get into service.

Knowing Zeihan, he's probably 'rounding in favor,' so the number is probably more like 4 or 5 if you count nations that could inflict serious losses in the process of having their air force wiped out, but it's still going to be closer to 3 than 20.
Lords of Fire one point you failed to cover is supply chain, logistics, and maintenance.

A constant battle for complicated machines, especially ones that fly. Our NATO allies had major issues in their little war in Libya. I think they mad it 30 hours before needing to ask nicely to the USA for assistance in the above areas.

Logistics wins wars but is not flashy or pretty. From my understanding of working with foreign military, Most countries are worse than Russia or the majority of NATO.
 

Cherico

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Lords of Fire one point you failed to cover is supply chain, logistics, and maintenance.

A constant battle for complicated machines, especially ones that fly. Our NATO allies had major issues in their little war in Libya. I think they mad it 30 hours before needing to ask nicely to the USA for assistance in the above areas.

Logistics wins wars but is not flashy or pretty. From my understanding of working with foreign military, Most countries are worse than Russia or the majority of NATO.
americans are good at two things in a war.

Logistics and blowing stuff up.
 

LordsFire

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Lords of Fire one point you failed to cover is supply chain, logistics, and maintenance.

A constant battle for complicated machines, especially ones that fly. Our NATO allies had major issues in their little war in Libya. I think they mad it 30 hours before needing to ask nicely to the USA for assistance in the above areas.

Logistics wins wars but is not flashy or pretty. From my understanding of working with foreign military, Most countries are worse than Russia or the majority of NATO.
Given that in the theoretical scenario, the other nation is on the defense, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt on having enough logistical material on their home bases. Probably somewhat unrealistic generosity, I know, but still.
 
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