peter Zeihan 2020

[Floridaman]

Well, except it has no deterance value. Hitting it just gives unlimited justification to carry out the war, since once done it can't be done again. Its an all downside move unless it would meaningfully help win the war.

.... how does wiping out the main cities in a country where it’s production come from have no detterent value. You do realize how nuclear war works right? That is literally what we do in a mad scenario, cripple a countries ability to continue functioning.

 

[Arch Dornan]

and who would carry out this atrocity?

Who ever gives the order and those charged to launch the ordnance there.

 

[bullethead]

and who would carry out this atrocity?

People backed up against the wall in a very bloody conflict.

Remember, the US was willing to nuke Japan flat at the end of WW2 because they saw how bloody invading the country could be, thanks to Okinawa. The total projected casualties of nuking Japan (which were made without understanding the effects of fallout, etc...) were massively less than the projected casualties for the invasion.

Remember, the US made so many damn Purple Hearts for that invasion that they were handing them out decades later.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

People backed up against the wall in a very bloody conflict.

Remember, the US was willing to nuke Japan flat at the end of WW2 because they saw how bloody invading the country could be, thanks to Okinawa. The total projected casualties of nuking Japan (which were made without understanding the effects of fallout, etc...) were massively less than the projected casualties for the invasion.

Remember, the US made so many damn Purple Hearts for that invasion that they were handing them out decades later.

would it be taiwan or the USA?

 

[Arch Dornan]

would it be taiwan or the USA?

Taiwan. You're talking of who'll take the brunt in the initial fight? That would be Taiwan.

 

[Cherico]

war progress report



the russians might be running low on ammo.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

war progress report



the russians might be running low on ammo.

lol

they have been running low on ammo since march

 

[Arch Dornan]

Haven't we been told that a while back?

 

[Cherico]

Haven't we been told that a while back?

The russian cold war stock pile of everything takes awhile to go through.

The thing is everyone more or less expected the Russians to freaking roll Ukraine the Russians have their soviet stock pile and they have what they built since their system collapsed but they had two artilery wars before this which helped dimish their stockpiles, and sooner or later the question is.

How much more do they have left? IF a few key bridges are blown this war gets a whole hell of a lot harder for russia to fight.

 

[Arch Dornan]

The russian cold war stock pile of everything takes awhile to go through.

The thing is everyone more or less expected the Russians to freaking roll Ukraine the Russians have their soviet stock pile and they have what they built since their system collapsed but they had two artilery wars before this which helped dimish their stockpiles, and sooner or later the question is.

How much more do they have left? IF a few key bridges are blown this war gets a whole hell of a lot harder for russia to fight.

We'll find out then if they still have more.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

The russian cold war stock pile of everything takes awhile to go through.

The thing is everyone more or less expected the Russians to freaking roll Ukraine the Russians have their soviet stock pile and they have what they built since their system collapsed but they had two artilery wars before this which helped dimish their stockpiles, and sooner or later the question is.

How much more do they have left? IF a few key bridges are blown this war gets a whole hell of a lot harder for russia to fight.

bridges arent easy to take out

 

[Cherico]

bridges arent easy to take out

and yet they have been taken out in war more then once.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

and yet they have been taken out in war more then once.

bridges are shockingly easy to repair to a functional state unless you take out the structure itself.

 

[Marduk]

bridges are shockingly easy to repair to a functional state unless you take out the structure itself.

With the caveat that repairs aren't made equal. Patching up a bridge to take foot traffic and occasional light truck is one thing, making the bridge able to take a tank battalion rolling through is a whole lot more work.

 

[Typhonis]

With the caveat that repairs aren't made equal. Patching up a bridge to take foot traffic and occasional light truck is one thing, making the bridge able to take a tank battalion rolling through is a whole lot more work.

Especially if the bridge supports eat a few PGMs.

 

[Cherico]

Russia is now buying artilery shells from North korea and Drones from Iran.

The Iranian drones will be of a limited amount because Iran doesn't have all that much industry, but the shells...thats pretty telling and shows that russian industry isn't doing well. Russia still has a decent chance of winning this war of course but if their logistics are fucked on the level we think they are then it gets harder for them the longer the stalemate lasts.

 

[bullethead]

Marginal suppliers set the prices, and Germany's going to get fucked by the new fuel pricing structure. Industrial recession is likely to happen this winter, hitting Germany and a whole bunch of central European countries like Austria, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic.

 

[Marduk]

Marginal suppliers set the prices, and Germany's going to get fucked by the new fuel pricing structure. Industrial recession is likely to happen this winter, hitting Germany and a whole bunch of central European countries like Austria, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic.

Inb4 Germany will have to reach the next stage of green circus and simply switch to permanently buying loads of nuclear power from France and coal power from Poland to circumvent the costly self-imposed limitation, while Germany's greens can stay happy about not having either there and keeping their "climate ambitions".
After all they don't need to feed a cow if they can buy the milk, and when they rely on neighbor's cow they can only hope the local nutjobs are polite enough to not ask what the neighbor feeds their cow.

 

[Cherico]

Inb4 Germany will have to reach the next stage of green circus and simply switch to permanently buying loads of nuclear power from France and coal power from Poland to circumvent the costly self-imposed limitation, while Germany's greens can stay happy about not having either there and keeping their "climate ambitions".
After all they don't need to feed a cow if they can buy the milk, and when they rely on neighbor's cow they can only hope the local nutjobs are polite enough to not ask what the neighbor feeds their cow.

Poland could honestly use some good fortune for a change.

 

[Cherico]

The win is good but the Ukranians need to obliterate more russians to win.