Asia-Pacific north Korea escalating towards war?

Zachowon

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No, NK's leadership has been starting to go 'off script' for a while now, only with Chubby's rise to power it becoming more prevalent. Chubby's sudden ailment is probably China's way of telling the rest of the leadership to stop going 'off script'...
Eh, not really. ALl I can say though
 

Aaron Fox

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Eh, not really. ALl I can say though
Well, not exactly, per se. The Kims have been pushing the boundaries of what is considered 'acceptable' by the Chinese ever since the USSR fell apart and Russia didn't want anything to do with them. Chubby had done several things that China had considered unacceptable and made their point, with one case having something like sending a few armored divisions to the border as a 'behave, or we'll come over' message when Chubby did something that his Chinese handlers really didn't want to happen, well, happened.
 

Zachowon

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Well, not exactly, per se. The Kims have been pushing the boundaries of what is considered 'acceptable' by the Chinese ever since the USSR fell apart and Russia didn't want anything to do with them. Chubby had done several things that China had considered unacceptable and made their point, with one case having something like sending a few armored divisions to the border as a 'behave, or we'll come over' message when Chubby did something that his Chinese handlers really didn't want to happen, well, happened.
I literally know everything that goes on over here.

It is not like that really
 

Aaron Fox

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I literally know everything that goes on over here.

It is not like that really
Then you haven't checked more than a year or two then, the Kims have been pushing China's buttons since Sugar Daddy USSR vanished. The only real reason that China tolerated the Kims is that they ensure a buffer between the US and China, however, they've been increasingly 'off script' as they continued on their nuclear weapons program. Chubby had been pushing the boundaries of what is acceptable with China to their absolute limit and then some, especially after they got nukes... and they will never get rid of them willingly as they've already seen what happens if they do (South Africa and Ukraine)...
 

Zachowon

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Then you haven't checked more than a year or two then, the Kims have been pushing China's buttons since Sugar Daddy USSR vanished. The only real reason that China tolerated the Kims is that they ensure a buffer between the US and China, however, they've been increasingly 'off script' as they continued on their nuclear weapons program. Chubby had been pushing the boundaries of what is acceptable with China to their absolute limit and then some, especially after they got nukes... and they will never get rid of them willingly as they've already seen what happens if they do (South Africa and Ukraine)...
Again it is not like that exactly. A lot more is going in between the North and south
 

Aaron Fox

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Again it is not like that exactly. A lot more is going in between the North and south
No, the only reason that China supports the Kims is that they need a buffer state, if the Kims don't dance to China's tune then China reminds them of who really is in charge. Problem is, they've started to get 'off script' for the last few decades and China has escalated the 'don't make me come over there' actions in response.

If the Kims aren't going to dance to China's tune, then they will get replaced, simple as that and they know it. Like any monarchy (because let's face it, North Korea is a monarchy), the sane Kims don't want to get deposed by their overlords but the less-than-sane Kims have been making that objective harder.
 

Zachowon

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No, the only reason that China supports the Kims is that they need a buffer state, if the Kims don't dance to China's tune then China reminds them of who really is in charge. Problem is, they've started to get 'off script' for the last few decades and China has escalated the 'don't make me come over there' actions in response.

If the Kims aren't going to dance to China's tune, then they will get replaced, simple as that and they know it. Like any monarchy (because let's face it, North Korea is a monarchy), the sane Kims don't want to get deposed by their overlords but the less-than-sane Kims have been making that objective harder.
Again it isnt exactly like that. My job literally is to watch for that
 

Zachowon

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Have defectors from North Korea increased in recent years?
Honestly? No clue. Isnt really big news on either side.

Propaganda ballons are supposedly being launched according to the news here.
 

Fleiur

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Honestly? No clue. Isnt really big news on either side.

Propaganda ballons are supposedly being launched according to the news here.
I ask because as far as I know, people from the south are exporting K-Pop and K-Dramas and North Koreans watch and listen in secret. I was wondering if that was causing more people to defect.
 

Lanmandragon

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Honestly even with all the death and destruction. The norks popping off would likley turn out for the best. North Korea is an infected boil that should've been lanced decades ago. All "idealism" aside N. Korea will never reform. Violence will be necessary at some point period might as well get it over with.
 

Aaron Fox

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Honestly even with all the death and destruction. The norks popping off would likley turn out for the best. North Korea is an infected boil that should've been lanced decades ago. All "idealism" aside N. Korea will never reform. Violence will be necessary at some point period might as well get it over with.
Not at the cost of the world economy though, which is the situation we've got. Given that the Norks have -from my recollection- SCUDs and nukes, they can simply load a few and target Tokyo and Seoul and win that way because as either of those facing Openhimer's Light will cause the world economy to go into a tailspin by themselves, both means the Great Depression will look like a picnic. Sure, North Korea would become pot marked with new irradiated lakes in the aftermath, but the damage will already be done and it'll make interesting times for geopolitics.

That is why the US has been investing a lot in ABM tech, particularly ballistic and terminal phase interception. N. Korea has enough cards in its deck to basically ensure that they'll pull a 'from hell's heart, I stab at thee' on the rest of the world... which is why North Korea hasn't been taken out in the last decade when China-N. Korean relations were souring.
 

Lord Invictus

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The Chinese are willing to let Kim engage in provocative maneuvers because they themselves don't want the trouble or cost of intervening. No doubt they have no one available to launch a coup(I imagine NK generals and officers are executed for so much as talking to foreign governments), and direct military intervention would be a massive quagmire. Depose Kim and do...what?

Install some other general reliant on Chinese support? Try to incorporate a state as backwards into their own territory?

The Chinese are too cautious for any of that.
 

Zachowon

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Not at the cost of the world economy though, which is the situation we've got. Given that the Norks have -from my recollection- SCUDs and nukes, they can simply load a few and target Tokyo and Seoul and win that way because as either of those facing Openhimer's Light will cause the world economy to go into a tailspin by themselves, both means the Great Depression will look like a picnic. Sure, North Korea would become pot marked with new irradiated lakes in the aftermath, but the damage will already be done and it'll make interesting times for geopolitics.

That is why the US has been investing a lot in ABM tech, particularly ballistic and terminal phase interception. N. Korea has enough cards in its deck to basically ensure that they'll pull a 'from hell's heart, I stab at thee' on the rest of the world... which is why North Korea hasn't been taken out in the last decade when China-N. Korean relations were souring.
We have no idea if they have nukes or not.
The Chinese are willing to let Kim engage in provocative maneuvers because they themselves don't want the trouble or cost of intervening. No doubt they have no one available to launch a coup(I imagine NK generals and officers are executed for so much as talking to foreign governments), and direct military intervention would be a massive quagmire. Depose Kim and do...what?

Install some other general reliant on Chinese support? Try to incorporate a state as backwards into their own territory?

The Chinese are too cautious for any of that.
It isn't like that but okay
 

Lord Invictus

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We have no idea if they have nukes or not.

It isn't like that but okay
Okay then, tell me what I’m wrong about.

If you want to refute what I said, feel free to use whatever sources are available to you.

The CCP is extremely averse to direct intervention. This is not just armchair geopolitics on my part. it’s something that is noted everywhere.

Overthrowing Kim/intervening has potentially very high costs for China. I’m not sure why you disagree.

If I’m wrong-please explain in detail.
 
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Zachowon

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Okay then, tell me what I’m wrong about.

If you want to refute what I said, feel free to use whatever sources are available to you.

The CCP is extremely averse to direct intervention. This is not just armchair geopolitics on my part. it’s something that is noted everywhere.

Overthrowing Kim/intervening has potentially very high costs for China. I’m not sure why that’s debatable.
Just some of the stuff about nK and foriegn stuff isnt right but cant say more
 

Lord Invictus

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Just some of the stuff about nK and foriegn stuff isnt right but cant say more
Okay so your going to say it’s classified?

In which case, there is no productive discussion to be had.

So why exactly did you respond at all?
 

Zachowon

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Okay so your going to say it’s classified?

In which case, there is no productive discussion to be had.

So why exactly did you respond at all?
Habit at this point.
Sorry for that
 

Lord Invictus

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Habit at this point.
Sorry for that
Look the post was less about North Korea and more about Chinese behavior. Chinese caution is not just some nobody saying stuff-I could bother to find foreign policy sources about it, but it would be pointless.

If NK officers are in contact with the Chinese or whoever-cool. If the Chinese are covertly involved now-cool.

Either bring something productive to the discussion, or if you can’t due to your job then I see no reason why you should say anything at all.
 
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