No Nukes is... Good Nukes?

[Ash's Boomstick]

Given the plethora of BROBs and ROBs out there, what if one of those 'gentlemen' gave the power to someone to remove all nuclear weapons and waste from the planet? Not the reactors or medical equipment or anything else that can't explode or irradiate a large area, but the waste that's just been buried and the warheads in use or decommissioned or even being built.

What would be the aftermath for both the nuclear armed and non-nuclear armed countries, militarily, sociologically and politically?

 

[The Whispering Monk]

There would be a LOT of sphincter tightening until everyone realized that it happened to every country, not just theirs.

 

[ATP]

Given the plethora of BROBs and ROBs out there, what if one of those 'gentlemen' gave the power to someone to remove all nuclear weapons and waste from the planet? Not the reactors or medical equipment or anything else that can't explode or irradiate a large area, but the waste that's just been buried and the warheads in use or decommissioned or even being built.

What would be the aftermath for both the nuclear armed and non-nuclear armed countries, militarily, sociologically and politically?

If country X want invade country Y,they would still do that.
But - since you could not erase enemy country any longer,countries which lost their arsenals and do not have good army would act less daring.

 

[Rhyse]

Back to brutal land wars in Europe it is then.

 

[ATP]

Back to brutal land wars in Europe it is then.

Back to brutal wars on all continencts,except Australia.
For countries with relatively good armies,of course - Putin would be far less daring if he could not cry"let us win,or we nuke you"

 

[Atarlost]

Back to brutal wars on all continencts,except Australia.

No, really just Europe and Asia. Africa can't go back to what then never stopped. The Western hemisphere has been relatively peaceful with only threats of conventional force and this doesn't change America's ability to threaten conventional force.

The changes are that NATO directly backs Ukraine, India and Pakistan go to war, and China immediately tries to conquer Taiwan and hopefully everyone in southeast Asia or Oceania who doesn't want to be Chinese bands together to slap them down. Everyone else will wait until they see what the new balance of power looks like.

 

[Zyobot]

Well, what about renewed investment in chemical and biological weapons?

I'm aware they're banned under international law, but it's not like that's stopped various countries from violating it before (i.e. North Korea developing nukes), so I don't think international agreements will be all that effective.

 

[Atarlost]

Well, what about renewed investment in chemical and biological weapons?

I'm aware they're banned under international law, but it's not like that's stopped various countries from violating it before (i.e. North Korea developing nukes), so I don't think international agreements will be all that effective.

Chemical weapons are of limited effectiveness. They get one use and some breathing room while militaries implement NBC protection for infantry and if needed retrain their tankers to use the NBC protection they usually already have, but they aren't truly mass weapons.

Biologicals are a sword with no hilt. The 1918-1920 Flu demonstrated what happens if a novel virus is released in wartime. It hit the Americans first and then the rest of the Entente, but crossed the trenches into Germany soon after. And it didn't change the outcome of the war. Bioweapons are mass, but are so slow and indiscriminate that their net effect is small. So long as biologicals are the only true mass destruction weapon they need no arms race. A nation's enemies don't need their own doom plagues to guarantee that a nation releasing a doom plague will be destroyed along with them. The doom plague already does that.

 

[ATP]

Chemical weapons are of limited effectiveness. They get one use and some breathing room while militaries implement NBC protection for infantry and if needed retrain their tankers to use the NBC protection they usually already have, but they aren't truly mass weapons.

Biologicals are a sword with no hilt. The 1918-1920 Flu demonstrated what happens if a novel virus is released in wartime. It hit the Americans first and then the rest of the Entente, but crossed the trenches into Germany soon after. And it didn't change the outcome of the war. Bioweapons are mass, but are so slow and indiscriminate that their net effect is small. So long as biologicals are the only true mass destruction weapon they need no arms race. A nation's enemies don't need their own doom plagues to guarantee that a nation releasing a doom plague will be destroyed along with them. The doom plague already does that.

I remember book "Biochazard" by some ex-spviet scientist who run to USA - he claimed,that soviets worked on mix of pestilance and Ebola - which would kill 90% of population,but after month,not few days.
If it is true,then Moscov arleady have it,and China ,USA,other major powers - probably ,too

And,if they really could kill only population in one country - for example,Han in China - it is sword with very good hilt.

 

[Atarlost]

And,if they really could kill only population in one country - for example,Han in China - it is sword with very good hilt.

And do you have any reason to believe that's possible? Because there's never been an infectious disease that one race is immune to without prior exposure.

 

[Rhyse]

And do you have any reason to believe that's possible? Because there's never been an infectious disease that one race is immune to without prior exposure.

An engineered disease isn't a normal infectious disease. There are probably characteristics within the Han Chinese genome that segregates them from any theoretical target population; things like phages can be as target sensitive as a few dozen base pairs; and still be extremely lethal to the host.

Of course, the issues in creating that sort of tailored weapon are massive. You'd need to ensure that any theoretical 'target sites' on the genome, or the products of such target sites are themselves not shared with your own population. As well as ensuring that any products of said target sites aren't mimicked in your own people as homologous products. You'd need a solid understanding of the enemy population density, their genomics, and a way distributing the disease to them in a large enough amount, or spread across enough sites that it can't be easily contained. You'd need to also ensure that the disease was also A) Mutagenic enough to actually survive drug/temperature/chemical treatments and come out swinging, but not mutagenic enough that its precision targeting goes off target and starts to attack your own population as well. Or you'd need to vaccinate everyone in your own nation before you deploy it; which would make it limited in use and obvious in origin as well.

A better method would probably just be 'not import meat from target country', then 'release swathes of animal specific pathogens to decimate food supply of target country'. But even then, if you can effectively do that, you could probably find a better use for your global bioterror infiltration teams. Like shooting enemy leaders, or blowing up power plants. There's no need to engineer a plague, when blowing up water treatment facilities makes cholera a certainty, or taking down a power grid leads to mass food shortages. Bioweapons are always very specific in their niche of use, and typically (In my opinion anyway) not a good investment. The millions you could spend building a custom made disease would be better spent buying your guys gear; or paying enemy peoples to look the other way when your snake-eaters 86 a dozen substations.

 

[Atarlost]

An engineered disease isn't a normal infectious disease. There are probably characteristics within the Han Chinese genome that segregates them from any theoretical target population; things like phages can be as target sensitive as a few dozen base pairs; and still be extremely lethal to the host.

But there doesn't seem to be a single Han marker. There is a mix of markers associated with the Han, but none are unique. They're each shared with different other populations is if they've been in intermittent trade with the Near East since the second millenium BC or something.

If you want to bioweapon China and just China none of the markers are specific enough. You'll get better than 10% of most of southeast Asia. The US can't do that, the whole reason we might want to wipe out China is to protect our allies in the region who would also be susceptible to the same plague, especially the Republic of China. Russia can't very well do it either. It would hit the Manchu, Kazakhs, Mongols, and Vietnamese. The Kazakhs are Russian. The Mongols and Vietnamese are Russian allies. The Manchu I believe straddle the Sino-Russian border. Also, it's going to upset the US due to their large Chinese population and many allies in the region and Russia without nukes can not afford to anger America while in a war with China even if better than half of the Chinese are going to die. The ones that don't have that marker are still very numerous and would be completely immune.

This is representative of issues with targeted human diseases generally. Humans travel for trade and warfare and either stay and settle or leave bastards and that's not counting full on migrations.

 

[ATP]

And do you have any reason to believe that's possible? Because there's never been an infectious disease that one race is immune to without prior exposure.

I only knew,that soviets worked on something like that.What they achieved,is another matter,ask some good biologist about it.Which mean,not me.
Maybe @Zachowon would knew? he is working for military intelligience,if i remember correctly.

 

[Zachowon]

I domt think we have that kinda technology

 

[Rhyse]

But there doesn't seem to be a single Han marker. There is a mix of markers associated with the Han, but none are unique. They're each shared with different other populations is if they've been in intermittent trade with the Near East since the second millenium BC or something.

If you want to bioweapon China and just China none of the markers are specific enough. You'll get better than 10% of most of southeast Asia. The US can't do that, the whole reason we might want to wipe out China is to protect our allies in the region who would also be susceptible to the same plague, especially the Republic of China. Russia can't very well do it either. It would hit the Manchu, Kazakhs, Mongols, and Vietnamese. The Kazakhs are Russian. The Mongols and Vietnamese are Russian allies. The Manchu I believe straddle the Sino-Russian border. Also, it's going to upset the US due to their large Chinese population and many allies in the region and Russia without nukes can not afford to anger America while in a war with China even if better than half of the Chinese are going to die. The ones that don't have that marker are still very numerous and would be completely immune.

This is representative of issues with targeted human diseases generally. Humans travel for trade and warfare and either stay and settle or leave bastards and that's not counting full on migrations.

The solution then may be to pick multiple markers that intersect with enough of the theoretical target population to ensure over a certain percentage target kill/offtarget kill. You'd need pretty extensive intel on your target populations genomics as well, which I imagine isn't freely available. If you wanted an effective 'ethnic cleansing' bioweapon, you also would't go with just one. You'd probably go with a dozen. Ones that target various intersecting genome markers that will hit large amounts of the target population; phages that disrupt the functioning of nominally safe local bacteria - most phages can act as reservoirs for HGT, so you could induce toxicity in gut bacteria, or non harmful foodborne bacteria - bacteria that destroy crops, viruses that kill animals common to the region. Which would require yet more intel, more money, more time, and more people in China to deploy them; and then yet more people to monitor the effects of said bioweapons.

Even the most 'lethal' diseases can be contained, and firebreak plans would definitely be used to halt any spread of one disease; vaccines can be produced, the kill rate can't be too high or too fast since it'll burn out before being effective. You'd need to breed in anti-viral and anti-biotic resistance. Plus every one you develop has the chance to turn around and infect you as well. Then you're got to think of the point of it all, if you just want to kill your enemy; then conventional ballistic missiles can still be very large. You could load payloads of things like nerve gasses, or just normal HE; and keep hitting enemy cities/military bases/ports/etc with them until their capacity for war is destroyed. None of those have astronomically high R&D costs that developing a dozen death plagues would have either. Even putting aside the strategic concerns, or moral concerns; I doubt that you'd be able to get enough bang for your buck when compared to just old fashioned chlorine/sarin/VX/TNT bombs dropped onto the enemy. Hell, nukes may not work, but radioisotopes are still lethal. Airbursting dirty bombs would probably work better than a theoretical bioweapon.

Any theoretical America that did try and develop a tailor made plethora of diseases to deal with 'The Han Question!' would be so far down a moral rabbit hole that they'd be rimming satan. So I imagine that there'd be plenty of issues regarding that on the home front as well. Because the USA that does shit like that, definitely has internment camps for Chinese Americans.

I domt think we have that kinda technology

We don't. We have the bare infancy of maybe that technology. You'd need to engage in some pretty dammed unethical experiments before we'd have that technology honestly. It would take a lot of bodies; money, and researchers that could be doing literally anything else besides LARP'ing as Pre-War Fallout scientists. People always talk about CRISPR-Cas9, I've worked with CRISPR-Cas9, it's not particularly accurate. It's probably one of the most accurate and powerful gene editing tools we have today, but it still has lots of errors, offsite mutations and such.

 

[Zachowon]

Yeah we really don't have a lot if tech to be that accurate with bio

 

[Rhyse]

Yeah we really don't have a lot if tech to be that accurate with bio

You could maybe make up with sheer attrition. You can get very accurate mutations, with mutagenic compounds for sure. But then you're looking at more and more lab time being added on, with more and more testing for each permutation of each mutation. Which is just going to bloat and bloat the project. It's already a bad idea, any setback would make it a lost cause

 

[Zachowon]

You could maybe make up with sheer attrition. You can get very accurate mutations, with mutagenic compounds for sure. But then you're looking at more and more lab time being added on, with more and more testing for each permutation of each mutation. Which is just going to bloat and bloat the project. It's already a bad idea, any setback would make it a lost cause

Well of course rhat is about the only way

 

[Arch Dornan]

Bigger and badder missiles and bombs for the big ass boom boom like the MOAB.

 

[Rhyse]

Well of course rhat is about the only way

You could theoretically use something like Cas-9 to insert genes that increase pathogenicity, or cause toxicity in normally non harmful bacteria, or to make retroviruses more lethal to humans. But I wouldn't even know where to start when it came to something like designing a disease specifically for one ethnic group. I highly doubt that relying on random mutations, and then assaying them with that groups cells is going to be a practical way of getting that sort of effect. It's unlikely to evolve in nature either; it's counter to viral survival strategy to A) Be only able to infect a niche of a niche, and B) Be unable to mutate to jump from that niche of a niche, into a wider population. Eg, go from 'Han Chinese -> Wider Asian populations -> Humans.

We would probably have to create some sort of novel bioinformatic tool before we would even begin to work on the techniques, to begin to target ethnic groups. Which of course, would mean more money added. I think the below is a better option

Bigger and badder missiles and bombs for the big ass boom boom like the MOAB.

Boom!

EDIT: Or just use shitloads of anthrax. You can make it more lethal by culturing it with silicon; but most of the work has already been done by nature itself.