Alternate History New Guinea Civilization Scenario?

[Eparkhos]

Here's the idea:

• PoD: Around 2000 BC, hunter-gatherers in the Papua Peninsula begin cultivating Sorghum propinquum, simultaneously acclimatizing it for the highlands and increasing overall yield, and by around AD 1 it becomes a fully productive grain, spread northward to the main Highlands region. Guinea sorghum is a high-calorie, high-protein plant that allows for major nutrition and thus population growth, and nitrogen fixing of soils where it is grown. However, its grainy-nature means that, unlike other tuber-based crops, it is vulnerable during its growing and harvest and must be protected throughout this duration, which leads to the emergence of tribal chiefdoms amongst the various highland peoples to establish and maintain control over farmland year-round.
• Increased competition for control of land and increased overall population creates a very Darwinian environment, where the more warlike peoples such as the Huli push their neighbors out of the fertile valleys or destroy them entirely, all while expanding their own populations and power. This atmosphere of constant war gives increased importance to proto-chiefdom systems as a means of maintaining control of land, internal order and various religious functions.
• Increased population requires increased agricultural output to prevent famine, all while constant endemic warfare continues along the fringes of the valleys. The result is a degree of social stratification, with a warrior nobility emerging and effectively skimming off the top of the rest of society in exchange for constant warfare, all while large parts of the population remain armed and generally combatant. Non-military social development remains rare, but fortified towns and villages are everywhere and there is some trade between different polities, usually related. Somewhat out there, but control over stingless bee nests and thus access to honey and alcohol may be a center of social organization a la the Pygmies of Central Africa.
• The valley people become increasingly socially complex and populated, while the people displaced into the mountains/fringe regions revert into herder-gardeners, creating seasonal plots but spending most of their time herding pigs and cassowaries (both OTL domesticates) through the highland jungles, raiding into the settled regions whenever they get the chance. Agriculture slowly spreads through cultural contact across the highlands, with lowland farming cultures emerging in the Mambermano and Markham-Ramu valleys, with social organization based on flood control and resisting outside attack. Limited trade networks means that the New Guinean’s influence spreads into the Bismarck Archipelago/Solomons but not much farther because of distance and horrific geography.
• In short, a relatively complex series of societies--maybe even a civilization, depending on how you define it--develops in New Guinea but remains cut off from the world until the Europeans show up in the late 1600s, which will create a fascinating series of interactions similar to Lands of Red and Gold.

Thoughts? Anyone interested in seeing me do something like this?

 

[ATP]

Here's the idea:

• PoD: Around 2000 BC, hunter-gatherers in the Papua Peninsula begin cultivating Sorghum propinquum, simultaneously acclimatizing it for the highlands and increasing overall yield, and by around AD 1 it becomes a fully productive grain, spread northward to the main Highlands region. Guinea sorghum is a high-calorie, high-protein plant that allows for major nutrition and thus population growth, and nitrogen fixing of soils where it is grown. However, its grainy-nature means that, unlike other tuber-based crops, it is vulnerable during its growing and harvest and must be protected throughout this duration, which leads to the emergence of tribal chiefdoms amongst the various highland peoples to establish and maintain control over farmland year-round.
• Increased competition for control of land and increased overall population creates a very Darwinian environment, where the more warlike peoples such as the Huli push their neighbors out of the fertile valleys or destroy them entirely, all while expanding their own populations and power. This atmosphere of constant war gives increased importance to proto-chiefdom systems as a means of maintaining control of land, internal order and various religious functions.
• Increased population requires increased agricultural output to prevent famine, all while constant endemic warfare continues along the fringes of the valleys. The result is a degree of social stratification, with a warrior nobility emerging and effectively skimming off the top of the rest of society in exchange for constant warfare, all while large parts of the population remain armed and generally combatant. Non-military social development remains rare, but fortified towns and villages are everywhere and there is some trade between different polities, usually related. Somewhat out there, but control over stingless bee nests and thus access to honey and alcohol may be a center of social organization a la the Pygmies of Central Africa.
• The valley people become increasingly socially complex and populated, while the people displaced into the mountains/fringe regions revert into herder-gardeners, creating seasonal plots but spending most of their time herding pigs and cassowaries (both OTL domesticates) through the highland jungles, raiding into the settled regions whenever they get the chance. Agriculture slowly spreads through cultural contact across the highlands, with lowland farming cultures emerging in the Mambermano and Markham-Ramu valleys, with social organization based on flood control and resisting outside attack. Limited trade networks means that the New Guinean’s influence spreads into the Bismarck Archipelago/Solomons but not much farther because of distance and horrific geography.
• In short, a relatively complex series of societies--maybe even a civilization, depending on how you define it--develops in New Guinea but remains cut off from the world until the Europeans show up in the late 1600s, which will create a fascinating series of interactions similar to Lands of Red and Gold.

Thoughts? Anyone interested in seeing me do something like this?

Please do that.
I think,that we get city-states there.And,if they discover gold,,europeans would come to liberate them from it.
P.S i once read that there was web of canals there abadonned before european come - but,forget author,as usual.

 

[gral]

• In short, a relatively complex series of societies--maybe even a civilization, depending on how you define it--develops in New Guinea but remains cut off from the world until the Europeans show up in the late 1600s, which will create a fascinating series of interactions similar to Lands of Red and Gold.

Thoughts? Anyone interested in seeing me do something like this?

I'm interested.

As for the quoted part, how widespread are those societies in the lowlands? Because the Europeans only really found out how many people were there(and how advanced they were) in the highlands in the 1920s, when they started flying over the highland valleys. If there isn't much civilization in the lowlands, the Europeans won't really deal with the highland New Guineans.

 

[Eparkhos]

I'm interested.

As for the quoted part, how widespread are those societies in the lowlands? Because the Europeans only really found out how many people were there(and how advanced they were) in the highlands in the 1920s, when they started flying over the highland valleys. If there isn't much civilization in the lowlands, the Europeans won't really deal with the highland New Guineans.

That's a good question, and I've been mulling it over. The biggest obstacles to the spread of civilization in the lowlands are that

A. Yams/domestic sorghum, which would be the core of any crop-package, would be specialized for the temperate highlands and not do well in the lowlands, leaving the lowlanders only taro, sago and other OTL plants that clearly aren't enough to support a major population, and
B. Malaria. The locals have adaptations to resist it IOTL, but a consistent 3% death rate will prevent major population consolidation, which is required for civilization to develop. In fact, I think malaria and disease as a whole (some sort of hantavirus, which usually have ~33% mortality rates, is practically guaranteed to become human-borne because of the massive bat population interacting with expanding human populations, and Heaven only knows what other diseases lurk in the unexplored jungle that haven't been discovered/become prominent yet IOTL but might be found ITTL) will become a major factor in how this civilization develops.

However, I do think there will be some lowlander settlements of note.
- The headwater region of the Mambermano River is *decently* habitable, so there will likely be some farming culture developing there in the foothills, likely highlanders intermixing with the locals after being chased out by the warlike Ndani. How organized this becomes I can't say, but they're sort of lowlanders.
- The Upper Mambermano people will trade with tribes living further downstream, and given that the Tidoreans were probably vaguely aware of the region OTL, there'll likely be a settlement or two at the rivermouth, but as these will be at the extreme fringe of their respective networks it won't have any real impact anywhere else.
- The lower Sepik and Fly rivers will probably see limited agriculture, but the rivers are too erratic and the regions too disease-prone for these to become anything more than scattered villages.
- The really interesting region is the Markham River valley. The climate here is *relatively* temperate, allowing the highland crop package to arrive earlier and reducing disease risk, while a need for flood control and the prevention of highlander raids will drive the locals to develop social organization quickly, meaning it will be the lowland region with the oldest and most heavily-developed culture and towns by the time the European show up. Even more interestingly, the culture will have access to the sea and presumably influence the culture of the neighboring Bismarck Archipelago through trade and war, which will establish a 'New-Guinea-Sphere' throughout the Bismarcks and Solomons, as well as creating a tradition of long-distance sailing.
- Finally, there is the southern side of the Papuan Peninsula. There are some areas of non-murderous land, all along the coast, that would likely see some social organization develop early on because of close exposure to the point of sorghum domestication, but the extent to this is variable. There is also evidence to support the idea that these or the Fly River tribes were in contact with the Torres Strait Islanders and possibly even North Australia directly IOTL, which will open a whole new can of butterflies.

The most likely points of contact would be, I think, in either 1607-9 with the Dutch wandering northward from Cape York, or in 1699 with the arrival of Dampier's second expedition in the Bismarck Sea. The Spanish and Portuguese seem to have passed along the northern coast twice and once, respectively, in the early 1500s, but this can easily be handwaved away as being blown off course or lost in a storm. In regards to first major contact, either way I think there would be little European influence until the French and British start competing in the South Seas in the late 18th-century and suddenly become very interested...

Please do that.
I think,that we get city-states there.And,if they discover gold,,europeans would come to liberate them from it.
P.S i once read that there was web of canals there abadonned before european come - but,forget author,as usual.

I believe there was some use of canals in the highland valleys during the Kuk Swamp period, but these fell out of use before the PoD. They might be revived, though. And as for the gold, Papua has plenty of gold OTL, but most of it is remote that the Europeans won't know its there until a bit after they arrive.

 

[Eparkhos]

This is more of an outline than anything, intended to show the rough trajectory of the largest/most powerful lowlander state: the (first) Laetian Empire.

Around AD 300 or so, when highlanders from the Papua Peninsula first start expanding due to population increases, the eastern lowlands around Morobe would have been inhabited by the Zia people, known OTL for their sailing. Rather than fight the batshit crazy highland warriors, the Zia take to the seas, creating a diaspora of Zia and Zia-influenced cultures surrounding the western rim of the Solomon Sea.

Fast forward a few centuries, to the rough end of the Migration Era (c.300-700). The population of the highlands has increased and stability is increasing, leading to overall trade within and without. By this point, the Zia have faciliated a seaborn trading network, and these two trading networks eventually link together at Lae, which is a good port close to the easiest road into the highlands. Over the following centuries, Lae becomes increasingly wealthy and powerful, establishing tributaries further and further inland along the Markham River, increasing trade passing through it and its own population and economic production. The lifeblood of Lae's economy is the trade in sugar and areca, which are grown only in the lowlands and sold in the highlands in exchange for metals (gold, silver and copper) which are trucked down to the lowlands. From around 700 to 900, Lae has a near-monopoly on the export of precious metals to the Solomon/Bismarck Rim regions, making it fantastically wealthy and influential. As population grows, some of the tributaries are directly incorporated to secure farmlands, and Laetian power starts to creep inland, but it remains just a very wealthy, very influential city-state.

This situation changes in the early 10th century, when gold is discovered in the Tabar Islands, on the far side of New Ireland. Suddenly, Lae loses its complete monopoly on precious metals and thus prestige goods. The Laetians decided that their best option is to increase overall supply of gold to cement their influence, and to do so they need to increase production of sugar and areca. The Laetians launch a series of offensives into the Upper Markham/Ramu Valley, installing direct rule and converting the lowlands into a series of sugar and areca plantations worked by slaves sold by neighboring highland tribes which, due to economies of scale and the cost of overland transport, gives the Laetians a near-monopoly over the supply of both crops to the highlanders. This produces a flood of precious metals into Lae that makes the Laetians fantastically wealthy once more, but the maintenance of this empire of plantations and slavery requires the Laetians to become more and more involved with the Finisterre highlanders, hiring them as mercenaries and buying their support to maintain their inland empire. Across the seas, Lae's increasing wealth and power results in the Laetians pulling the other Zia statelets into their orbit, establishing a network of tributaries across the region. Because water transport is so much more efficient than land transport (for one, the winds in the Solomon Sea all blow towards Lae), the most cost-effective economy for the Laetians is to convert their own hinterland into plantations and support their population through agriculture from colonies and tributaries.

The flaws in this scheme are...obvious. Laetian power is dependent entirely on the continuation of the sugar/areca-for-metal trade, using the profits to pay the Finisterre and other highlander groups to keep them peaceful, and to pay for the mercenary armies that keep down their slave population and keep the colonies/tributaries in line, which allows them to continue producing sugar/areca and keep the influx of precious metals. Nonetheless, it is relatively functional and keeps the Laetian Empire in business for two and a half centuries, roughly 950 to 1200, until it explodes on itself.

Over time, the highlander tribes become complacent and begin raiding despite the Laetian's payments, which disrupts the economic cycle and forces the Laetians to hire more and more mercenaries to fend off raids, which requires increased agricultural output which requires more slaves. Coincidentally, many of these slaves are from the same tribes that the mercenaries come from. Meanwhile, the population of Lae itself continues to increase, forcing the Laetians to demand more and more from their colonies/tributaries and provoking resentment and (expensive) rebellion. Eventually the system breaks, with heavy rains in the highlands in the 1190s flooding out the passes and cutting off trade access for several years, burning through the Laetians' reserves and leaving them unable to pay their mercs. A slave revolt pops up and many mercenaries defect, which leads to the rapid collapse of the Laetian Empire as the other Zians break out the popcorn and refuse to help. Lae itself falls, its immense riches are pillaged and most of the Laetians slaughtered, the survivors taking to the waves and scattering across the Solomon Sea. The mercenaries and freedmen then turn on each other as the highlanders come down out of the mountains to raid and pillage as well, leading to complete chaos in the Markham/Ramu region throughout the following decades. The lowlands will never see such political organization again.

As the Markham/Ramu trade dries up, the main outlet for the sugar/areca-for-metal trade changes to the Purari River flowing into the Gulf of Papua, which dramatically alters the balance of power there as well, with the Motu coming to dominate the region....


Thoughts?

 

[Eparkhos]

I might be screaming into the void on this one, but I find it interesting so I'll try and keep it going for a while. Anywho, here's some clarification on the Laetian Empire post:

- The Ziya are a combination of OTL's Zia and Korafe people, and like these people they have a practice of vasai or ritual gift-giving feasts similar to the potlatches of Pacific Northwest. In these ceremonies, representatives of villages (or towns, cities, etc.) exchange gifts as a sign of support and often submission. The catch is that the superior person/entity gives more to the inferior than the inferior does to them, so rather than being clear-cut displays of tribute or fealty the superior party is actually weakened by having the tributary. Because of the costs involved in the vasai system, most Ziya statelets are small and regional...until Lae comes along.
- The Laenu develop a work-around. By producing sugar cane in low cost areas and selling it in high-cost areas (the highlands) in exchange for silver, which is much more valuable vis a vis sugar in the rest of the Ziya world, the Laenu are creating a source of easy money that they have a near-monopoly on, as Lae controls the main route into the highlands. All of this excess value can be transferred to tributaries without damaging the rest of the Laenu economic system as more is produced each year.
- The establishment of tributaries, however, gives the Laenu a series of small trading partners that can be relatively easily manipulated. The Laenu demand their tribute in food, which allows them to support a large urban population at Lae itself and allows the Laenu to specialize into the sugar-metal trade to fund the tributary empire, and the actually important part of the economy, which is Lae's workshops and crafthouses.

In short, the entire tribute system is a way for Lae to feed its own population while maximizing the percentage of its population producing high-value, tradable goods. Because of economies of scale, the Laenu can outproduce their neighbors and flood the markets of their tributaries/allies, crippling competition and granting them massive amounts of wealth, influence and territory. The sugar plantations, highland trading and gold-silver-copper monopoly is just the cost of doing business.

Does this make sense? If you have questions please ask, I don't want to come off like a schizo.

 

[Circle of Willis]

I don't have any useful suggestion to make right now, but I've gotta say you've got my attention and I would encourage you to proceed with this scenario. It's very out-of-the-box - can't say I've ever seen a New Guinea TL anywhere else - and I'm interested in seeing where this goes.

 

[gral]

Does this make sense? If you have questions please ask, I don't want to come off like a schizo.

It does, and it does explain why the Laenu collapse so(relatively) quickly - their costs are so high they don't have - can't have - much in the way of reserves(relative to their expenses).

 

[Eparkhos]

It does, and it does explain why the Laenu collapse so(relatively) quickly - their costs are so high they don't have - can't have - much in the way of reserves(relative to their expenses).

Thanks for commenting! It's interesting to note that in 1100 Laenu tributaries stretched from the tip of the Papua Peninsula to the Solomons, and covered almost all of New Britain, and in 1198 Laenu was a smoking ruin. Nonetheless, I think that as memory fades it will be idealized by later Ziya and form an aspirational model similar to what Rome was for Europe.

I don't have any useful suggestion to make right now, but I've gotta say you've got my attention and I would encourage you to proceed with this scenario. It's very out-of-the-box - can't say I've ever seen a New Guinea TL anywhere else - and I'm interested in seeing where this goes.

Glad you're interested, I'll keep this going until it runs out of steam or it turns into a true timeline. I hope I won't give away too much

 

[Eparkhos]

I'll try and keep this brief, because it's all rather complicated and I want to make sure I get the information across.

- The Laenu Empire seriously disrupts existing life on New Britain. The Laenu desire the region as a potential source of cheap foodstuffs, and with their riches, mercenary armies and long reach there is nothing the New British can do to stop them. The natives are driven out of most of the island with fire, sword and much blood, retreating into the central highlands and the eastern Gazelle Peninsula while the Lae settle the lowlands with their own Yawanu and Bagonu Ziya and occasional groups of highlanders, turning the island into a major part of the Ziya world.
- The Laenu's genocidal campaign in the west drives tens of thousands of New British eastward and causes vast amounts of chaos, with there being non-stop fighting for several centuries. This conflict shatters existing New British and New Irish societies, devastates the region's land and people and is generally awful, lasting from roughly 975 to 1150.
- Prior to this time of chaos, most* of the New Irish and eastern New British practiced small-scale sedentary agriculture, lived in villages led by local headman, severely stratified by wealth and followed the duk-duk, which was a masked dancing ritual through which ancestral spirits 'took over' peoples bodies, thus enforcing laws and social obligations.
- This era of conflict changes this. Wealth becomes concentrated in the upper classes, often with vague or distant connections to the Laenu, and as the duk-duk is formed by members of the upper class and enforces their codes, it (and the rest of the ritual system surrounding it) come to be seen as tools of oppression by the lower classes. Social revolt occurs across the region, with the upper classes being driven out or slain, their possessions destroyed and the duk-duk ritual system disbanded.
- The end of the duk-duk system by c.1125 leads to traditional ancestor worship becoming more prominent and simultaneously changing. The kalup idols, traditionally used to appease the spirits, instead become embodiments of them and vital for the spiritual defence of the clan, village and tribe.
- This gives the makes of the kalup massive influence, and over time the largest quarry/production center, known as the Great Quarry (Siaman, New Ireland) establishes a pseudo-imperial system, ruling directly over the nearby Kamdaru Valley and indirectly over much of New Ireland, the islands east of it and the Gazelle Peninsula of New Britain. Local chiefs and headmen submit to the Great Quarry, offering tribute in exchange for spiritual protection in the form of kalup and physical protection in the form of warriors and war-canoes. This sees an overall increase in living conditions as decades of war subside (mostly thanks to the Laenu expansion ending), agricultural output and trade increases. The craft-priests of the Great Quarry preach an ideology by which the number of kalup/ancestor spirits must be increased so that New Britain can be reconquered and the Laenu driven into the sea; As Lae grows weaker, they turn their eyes westward....
- It should also be noted that the craft-priests take some notes from the Laenu, striving to economically unite their many vassals and encourage trade among them and with the Great Quarry, on the principle that doing so will unite their followers and limit the influence of Lae. The result is an overall increase in economic production and especially in the population/economy of the Great Quarry itself, which grows into a major city around the quarry/temple complex and a major center of ceramic, mineral and metallic trade.


Thoughts?

 

[ATP]

When european come,they would find not savages,but relatively rich and not united lands.
I see many conquistadores here.

And Laetian empire rise and fall was very probable.
Since it was first,then why not made second which emerge after getting technology from european and united New Gwinea?
Maybe even coping China&Japan and shutting themselves after that?

 

[Eparkhos]

When european come,they would find not savages,but relatively rich and not united lands.
I see many conquistadores here.

And Laetian empire rise and fall was very probable.
Since it was first,then why not made second which emerge after getting technology from european and united New Gwinea?
Maybe even coping China&Japan and shutting themselves after that?

The wealth of the islands would attract would-be Corteses, but I don't think that the Spanish (or, more likely, Dutch) would actually be able to hold them given that they would be operating on supply lines stretching all the way back to the Philippines/Java. OTL, the Dutch weren't able to enforce their monopoly on New Guinea until the 1800s, so that bodes poorly for any would-be conquerors.

Your point about the 2nd Laetian Empire being driven by European weapons is partially true, but I won't spoil. Regardless, given how oceanic the Guinean civilization is, it would be impossible to shut themselves off a la China, so once the Europeans show up they'll be a major influence to the TL's end.

Thanks for commenting.

 

[Eparkhos]

Writing would first evolve around 1000, as states expand and record-keeping is needed beyond basic human memory, and would in particular be used and innovated upon by the First Laenu Empire as the largest, and thus most complicated, state in existence at that point. Guinean writing would spread from the Laenu core eastward, into the Bismarcks and Solomons by sea and westward into the highlands over the following centuries, and by c.1600 it would be common in 'civilized' states stretching from the headwaters of the Fly all the way to the southern Solomons.

The first script would be pictograms and tally-marks, like with all other alphabets. The actual act of writing would be done with lampblack (soot), sticks smeared in said lampblack gradually refined into bristle-brushes, and upon the flattened pulp of Pandanus trees, which was used OTL for sails and weaving. This has two interesting ramifications:

1. Pandanus cloth is horizontally strong but not vertically so, and could be torn by hardened instruments or straight-lined movements going against its grain. The result is a tendency towards curving, rather than straight lines. Curved figures are, as a rule, harder to recreate correctly than straight lines, and so these pictograms will very quickly become a) more abstract, and b) a syllabry, with a few dozen characters used to represent syllables and jammed together to make words, rather than having to remember one of thousands or more of characters for each individual idea.

2. Pandanus is considered sacred (kind of, but it's very difficult to explain) by many highlander tribes, especially those living in the eastern and east-central highlands where writing would be first introduced. OTL, these tribes created entire sacred languages that are used in the presence of Pandanus and Pandanus-derived goods, such as karuka nuts, to keep from offending the spirits. The highlanders will thus insist on using these sacred dialects in the mere presence of paper, and especially while writing.

This is actually a good thing. Pandanus languages are deliberately simple, their word counts, sound inventories and even word sizes limited in size to make them easier to remember. This lends itself very easily to the existing syllabric system, and given how insistent the highlanders are on using these, and only these languages, in writing, it seems entirely logical for the lowlanders to go along with it for ease of use and avoiding translation issues between syllabries derived from the same pictogram system. Over time, I think one of these languages in particular--probably Melpa, which is used at Mount Hagen, the largest center of trade in the highlands OTL--will outcompete the others for ease of use and become a lingua franca. There's also the fact that New Guinea has and will have hundreds of languages and thousands of dialects, and so will need some sort of auxiliary language to facilitate communication and trade, all the more reason for one language to become the language of writing and record.

In summary, writing in the Guinean civilization will develop as pictograms and simplify into a syllabry. Over time, religious and ease-of-use concerns will result in a form of Melpa becoming widespread as the language of writing, and eventually spreading throughout most of the Guinean civilization as the language of writing, record and communication a la Church Latin.


Thoughts?

 

[Eparkhos]

In summary:
- OTL, Bougainville society from about 500 BC onward was comprised of sedentary farmers with a number of clans divided into four moieties that (in theory) are related to the same moieties in other clans. Each clan is led by dynastic chiefs, though these chiefs have very little power and are often ignored. As the butterflies reach Bougainville c.600, this system begins to change, with increased trade giving rise to increased social organization and specialization. The 'upper moieties' of OTL transition into the 'trader/craftsman' and 'warrior' moieties, while the OTL 'lower moieties' grow larger as wealth gaps increase, and conflict within the island itself increases as lowland populations grow and begin to push into the highlands proper, all while lowland chiefs feud over land, wealth, etc. Notably, leagues of chiefdoms form that are led by 'great chiefs' elected from among the chiefs.
- The most abrupt change comes around AD 1000, when the northern part of the island is invaded by New British tribes fleeing the Laenu invasion of their homeland. The Bougainvillers try to resist, but are unable to mount an effective resistance against the hardened and desperate New British, and in desperation several chiefs invite the Laenu in. The Laenu defeat the New British, massacring them or driving them northward to New Ireland, and set up indirect rule on the island. Around 1050, copper is discovered at Panguna and the village swiftly rises to become a major trading and population center, and as the Laenu begin to withdraw after 1110 Panguna becomes increasingly powerful, uniting the local highlander tribes and the lowlanders of the Jaba Valley to expand its power across the island.
- From around 1170-1350, Panguna dominates Bougainville. Its rich mines and fields allow the self-proclaimed tsunimihil (Greatest of Chiefs/Prince) to build up its buildings and fire-temples, to keep the chiefs of more distant villages in line, and over the first few decades Panguna steadily increases its centralization and wealth. However, this process alienates many regional chiefs--especially in the north--and they look to the Great Quarry to free them from Panguna, and from 1240 onwards the Great Quarry backs a near constant stream of revolts, rebellions and invasions that Panguna fends off at great cost, forcing it to centralize to gain funds and sparking further dissension and revolt. Finally, around 1350, the accessible copper at Panguna is exhausted and it collapses, leaving the Great Quarry to assemble a string of vassals all across the northern half of the island; these vassals are much more decentralized but relatively more wealthy.
- Most important in the long term, the Princes of Panguna had begun hiring Rovianan mercenaries from the Solomon Islands to help them, and after their collapse the Rovianans kept coming, now as raiders and settlers. A remnant of the Pangunan state survives at Tabago, at the edge of the southern plain, as a centralized state needed to fend off the Rovianans. The Tabagan state survives for a century before it is overcome and destroyed; Panguna is resettled and emerges anew as the center of a league of chiefs fighting the Rovianans. The Rovianan migration peters out around 1500 and the Neo-Pangunans lead a successful reconquest that is completed a half-century later, giving its princes aspirations of restoring the old state.

 

[Eparkhos]

In summary:
- OTL, a major ritual/trading center emerged at Nusa Roviana in the 14th century, based off of the Rovianan's control of trade and major social events such as fishing expeditions and head-hunting raids. With more extensive trade in the region, Nusa Roviana would have risen centuries earlier, probably around AD 850. Its rulers seek to establish a monopoly on trade in the region, raiding any chiefdom in the surrounding islands that will not submit to them, killing rivals and collecting their heads as trophies. In the mid-1000s, they go too far and begin attacking Laenu vassals, resulting in a vast armada being sent eastward and being joined by the many peoples that the Rovianans had harassed. Nusa Roviana is burned to the ground and a Laenu colony founded in its place.
- However, by this point the Rovianans--a broad term referring to dozens of groups speaking as many languages and united only by a vague set of religious/cultural beliefs--have dispersed across the New Georgian archipelago and parts of Santa Isabel. As Lae declines, the Laenu flee Nusa Roviana and the Rovianans return, creating a new polity based on the worship of a massive stone prominence (OTL) and the expansion of spiritual power by collecting the skulls of defeated enemies.
- From ~1150 to ~1300, the Rovianans are busily engaged in fighting amongst themselves and the natives of neighboring islnds in a series of never ending raids and petty wars. From ~1300 onward, though, the Rovianans turn into an absolute scourge, expanding outward in a series of raids, pillaging expeditions and settlement that sees the conquest and settlement of part of Bougainville, Choiseul, Santa Isabel and Guadalcanal and raids as far ashore as the Papua Peninsula. Nusa Roviana develops a very vague sphere of soft power, with some Rovianan rulers seeking to legitimize themselves through making tribute and the warrior-priests of Nusa Roviana organizing major raids and pillaging expeditions to gain loot and followers. With the economy entirely dependent on warfare, any growth in population or social/economic organization is retarded and the middle Solomons remain backward, underpopulated and isolated.
- Further south, the 'Are'are people of Malaita and San Cristobal develop socieites even more complex than OTL, with powerful chieftains supported by warrior elites ruling over the common people to fend of Rovianan raids. These elites legitimize themselves by claiming to be the reincarnations of ancestral heroes in line with traditions of ancestor worship, the end result being long chains of rulers claiming to be the same person and adopting a ceremonial regelia designed to obscure their actual appearance as much as possible. Trade opportunity is limited to distant sea connections with the Polynesians and so remains of secondary concern, with agriculture and local production the only major economic factors; as a result, these cultures are materially quite poor. These states are the most centralized and developed in the Solomons at the time of contact.

 

[ATP]

I read,that in OTL some islanders created warrior culture with "knights" fighting in armours made from plants,which made them sling-proof.
Entire culture collapsed,when european start selling muskets.

 

[Eparkhos]

I read,that in OTL some islanders created warrior culture with "knights" fighting in armours made from plants,which made them sling-proof.
Entire culture collapsed,when european start selling muskets.

I don't know to what extent that was a thing OTL, but with a larger segment of the population producing crafts the more widespread use of rattan for armor seems likely to happen ITTL, and will likely be just as disrupted by the arrival of the Euros.

 

[Eparkhos]

Alright, wrapping up the history of the lowlands to the time of contact so we can move on up into the highlands...

- The disruption caused by the Fall of Lae sees the primary trading route between the highlands and lowlands changes. Rather than following the easier Markham route, most of the highland trade now goes down the upper Ramu River, then is portaged overland to the Nuru River and down to the sea. This new route leaves Kapure (OTL Madang), a former Laenu colony, in an excellent position. Already one of the largest colonies, Kapure expands rapidly, establishing its own colonies as far west as Broken Water Bay and conquering the small neighboring islands and the northern coast of the Finisterre Peninsula and converting large swathes of land into sugar plantations to continue the Laenu trading system. From about 1200 to 1260, Kapure is a rich city and a major power, but its attempts to rebuild the Laenu Empire stretch it too thin and alienate most of its neighbors, plunging it into a series of bloody and expensive wars it can ill-afford. Once the Markham Valley starts to calm down in the 1270s, the Ramu-Nuru route shrinks dramatically and Kapure collapses back down to a second-tier power. Kapure sends the next few centuries fighting with local rivals, occasionally becoming rich once more when conflict makes the Ramu-Nuru route viable but never reemerging into a major power. The coast NW of the Dampier Strait is a complete backwater after 1275, basically.
- Kapure's slave raids into the interior disrupts existing society in the region, triggering a migration of tribes westward and inland. The existing (OTL) Chambri trading system collapses under the weight of this migration, leading to the collapse of agricultural societies in the Lower Sepik Valley. These societies start to recover in the 14th century, but frequent floods and disease outbreaks prevent it from becoming a truly 'civilized' region, the largest settlements being a trading town or two located deep in the interior and cut off from the coasts.
- New Britain is rocked by the Putwisoro (Island Wars) from around 1200 to around 1500, as the Great Quarry's vassals war with the Ziya and post-Laenu states. These wars are a constant affair, with some part of the island experiencing conflict at any given point, but flare up every few decades into full-blown, no-stop wars. The Great Quarry succeeds in pushing the Ziya back at first, but as the Ziya organize and rebuild after the Fall of Lae they halt and then reverse this advance, only to become entropic and start fighting amongst themselves, allowing the Great Quarry to recover and attack anew. This cycle repeats itself frequently, and does little but exhaust the populations and economies of the island that cripples economic development. The rough line of division between the Ziya and New British settles roughly along the division between West and East New Britain, with the New British settling in the highlands as far west as Pt.1951. As the Putwisoro peters out, the coastal city-states become more involved in trans-regional trade and experience a boom in population, production and development that is ongoing at the time of Contact.
- The most prominent of the Ziya city-states is Ngkada (Bitokara), which sits on a portage across the Willaumez Peninsula that gives it an excellent trading and military position. Ngkada is able to vassalize the Ziya cities along the eastern coast, which gives it a major agricultural surplus that supports a large population and in turn a large army and economy. Ngkada is both a subject and enemy of the Great Quarry, fiercely fending off attempts to intrude on its vassals but also giving homage so it has access to the markets of other vassals. By the time of contact, Ngkada and the Great Quarry have reached an understanding that allows Ngkada to trade in the Bismarck Sea in exchange for regular tribute, which has allowed it to expand into a massive city that produces a deluge of goods and holds a great deal of influence.
- Further south is Lae. After its fall, the armies of mercenaries and freemen who had fueled its downfall turned on each other, plunging the Markham Valley into nearly a century of chaos fueled by intervention by the surrounding tribes. By the end of this period, Lae has reemerged as a major center, populated by the Laema, a new ethnic group formed from surviving Laenu and newly-arrived highlanders. However, Lae only controls the coast, with the interior carved up between numerous petty rulers and statelets. This situation lasts into the mid-14th century, after which it begins to consolidate. Lae's influence once again creeps further up the valley, not through direct conquest but through soft power, ritual feasts and gift-giving. All of this increases the costs of the state while limiting income, and this 'new Lae' is much weaker and poorer than its predecessor. Of course, throughout all of this the neighboring highlanders are growing stronger and seeking other market routes, such as those of the south. From the early 1400s onward, the upriver trading center of Watais becomes increasingly wealthy and powerful, competing with Lae for influence and sparking a period of ritual warfare up and down the valley that results in Lae's power falling once again and a weak tributary system emerging centered on Watais that exists at the time of contact.
- Yet further south, the Ziya city-states of the Papua Peninsula collapse into a period of bickering and war after the Fall of Lae. As time passes and the Motu begin dominated trade with the highlands, they become increasingly irrelevant in the broader trading system, with only the cities of the southern tip and the d'Entrecasteaux Islands, which are stop-overs on the route further north. The Ziya city-states produce very little of value themselves and find themselves blocked out of broader trade networks by the Motu, Rovianans and the Great Quarry. Once or twice one of the more powerful cities goes a-conquering and establishes itself as a hegemon, but without the extremely cost-effective silver-sugar system that Lae ran the costs of the vasai system tear them apart after a generation or two; the Ziya are over the hill by the time of Contact.
- Finally, there are the Louisiades. During the time of the First Laenu, the Ziya of Yanemberi (Rewe, Vanatinai) revolted frequently and had their own gold mines, and for this the Laenu burned their city to the ground, sold them into slavery and founded a colony, Pukotale, on the ruins. Over time, Pukotale emerged as a regional center as a source of gold, coral and pottery that enriched Lae, and as such it was rewarded with wealth, settlers and power--in short, Pukotale was the favorite son. With the Fall of Lae, Pukotale lost its main trading partner and was attacked by the neighboring Ziya who resented its power and mere existence as a sign of Lae's tyranny; Pukotale fought back and won. Over the following centuries, Pukotale continued to grow, becoming a keystone of the broader trade system, a stop over from the hiri routes to the west, the Solomons to the east and the Ziya, New Britain and Great Quarry to the north that made it fanatically wealthy. It used this wealth to exert influence on the Peninsula, but can more accurately be described as a region unto itself between all others. It also colonized the Rennel Islands to the east.

 

[Eparkhos]

- The inhabitants of the western Papua Peninsula are the Motu people, who practiced a form of horticulture in OTL and so are one of the first to adopt the cultivation of sorghum (c.400), which triggers a major population growth (sorghum grows better in the dry, rain-shadow region than tubers) that allows the Motu to withstand the Highlander wars and migration that displace other coastal peoples, and even absorb many of the other coastal peoples. By around 700, the Motu have expanded along the coast from Domara to Terapo and inland to the foothills, a region known as 'Dabaguna'.

- OTL, a major part of Motu life and society were the hiri, trading voyages westward across the Gulf of Papua to trade finished goods (mostly pottery) for sago palms to supplement the limited food supplies of the Motu homeland. With increased food production from sorghum, this practice goes into decline from about 400 to 650, but it resumes once Motu populations start running up on the carrying capacity of Dabaguna/the Highland tribes. In the autumn, the Motu depart Dabaguna and sail across the Gulf of Papua with the winds at their back, trade finished goods to the people of the many river deltas along the western coast, spend the next few months rebuilding their canoes to carry the sago they purchase and then return to Dabaguna. This allows Dabaguna's population to continue to expand and urbanize, while the long-stay over period leads to the rise of diasporic Motu communities in trading settlements along the delta coast. More importantly, a number of Motu settle migrate further west, establishing farming settlements on the Trans-Fly coast as far west as Merauke from around 1000 onward, with these settlements growing into a secondary but still influential Motu homeland (Henuguna) by around 1300.

- The hiri system grows into a broader system of monsoon-based trading that spans the Gulf of Papua and the regions westward. The bulk of this trade is non-Motu regions exporting raw goods and foodstuffs to Motu regions in exchange for Motu regions exporting finished goods to non-Motu regions. This allows the Motu cities to undergo major urbanization and host populations much larger than their hinterland allows, which has two major effects. Firstly, it gives rise to a class of urban craftsmen (potters, weavers, smiths, masons, etc.) that forms a significant part of the urban population, is relatively wealthy and dependent on trade and so has a major incentive to maintain stability and increase their influence, while also creating an underclass trapped in perpetual poverty that wants more wealth and influence. The result, with OTL Motu customs of electing chiefs and a tradition of rhetoric, is the evolution of a semi-democratic system, with rulers being elected by either all adult men or all adult mean with a certain degree of wealth. This in turn incentivizes a tradition of formalized debate and discussion, which in turn fosters an intellectual tradition in and of itself--the Motu are one of the first people to write, and one of the few to make true history, both in Melpa and their own language. Secondly, these large urban centers are dependent on trade for their very existance and are competing with other cities for access to a common market, resulting in fierce rivalry between city-states for trading influence, resulting in chronic petty wars and alliances. In short, the Motu city-states are the New Guinean answer to Ancient Greece.

- The high demand for sago, which grows slowly and requires a great deal of space, and the high supply of finished goods compounds existing geographic problems such as disease and floods and means that the numerous people of the delta region limit themselves to constellations of small villages and occaisonal small trading towns rather than developing anything more complex or populous. Their sole prominence is a route for sago production and goods coming downriver from the highlands.

- After the Fall of Lae, as highland populations continue to increase more and more land is opened to settlement, resulting in highland populations creeping closer and closer to the lowlands. These allow secondary trade routes to see greater use, and over time the primary highland-lowland trade routes shift westward and southward, becoming integrated with the broader Motu trading complex. This increases Motu trade and urbanization as well as trade and urbanization in the highlands, notably increasing the wealth of the Motu and sugar production in the Gulf of Papua regions.

- Australia: The Motu first reach northern Australia in the early 1200s via the Torres Strait Islands. There is little of interest to them there, as the land is too difficult to farm and thus can't support a major population, and the only direct New Guinean influence are a handful of small colonies settled on the eastern coast of Cape York to harvest coral from the Great Barrier Reef and export it back to their metropoles. Indirect influence is much greater, however, as the New Guineans introduce pigs, domestic bush-turkey and numerous agricultural plants that are adopted by the local Aborigines, which sets off a tsunami of butterflies across Australia...

This concludes the lowlands, I'll be moving up into the highlands next.

 

[ATP]

So,they have nothing which could take on galleon,but technology to built one.Once European come,they could copy not only arqebuses,but also galleons and guns.
Especially that many would -be- Cortez would certainly try and fail here to get their gold mines.
Some would survive as prisoners,and teach their captors all they knew.