Middle East Major Attack against Saudi Aramco Refinery

[Deleted member]

Houthi forces have successfully launched a multiple drone attack into Saudi Arabia.

Drone attacks have set alight two major oil facilities run by the state-owned company Aramco in Saudi Arabia, state media say.

Footage showed a huge blaze at Abqaiq, site of Aramco's largest oil processing plant, while a second drone attack started fires in the Khurais oilfield.

The fires are now under control at both facilities, state media said.

A spokesman for the Iran-aligned Houthi group in Yemen said it had deployed 10 drones in the attacks.

The military spokesman, Yahya Sarea, told al-Masirah TV, which is owned by the Houthi movement and is based in Beirut, that further attacks could be expected in the future.

He said Saturday's attack was one of the biggest operations the Houthi forces had undertaken inside Saudi Arabia and was carried out in "co-operation with the honourable people inside the kingdom".

Saudi officials have not yet commented on who they think is behind the attacks.

"At 04:00 (01:00 GMT), the industrial security teams of Aramco started dealing with fires at two of its facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais as a result of... drones," the official Saudi Press Agency reported.

"The two fires have been controlled."

Abqaiq is the largest oil refinery in the world if I recall correctly. Fires are not uncommon at major refineries so it's quite likely the Saudis were able to respond and isolate the damage rapidly as they have claimed. Still it is the first time that drone warfare has caused really noticeable industrial impacts.

 

[Husky_Khan]

So it's more of a PR coup then anything that would cause significant economic damage it seems?

 

[Deleted member]

So it's more of a PR coup then anything that would cause significant economic damage it seems?

More or less. Possibly a large dollar value of millions in lost production... But that’s a few hours at Abqaiq.

 

[Cherico]

its going to get a lot worse very soon.

the Iran Saudi cold war Is just getting started right now its proxies soon it will go hot.

Good news north America is pretty much energy independent so its officially not our problem for the Europeans and Asian commnunities here. Pick a side and arm your convoys.

 

[Sol Zagato]

So it's more of a PR coup then anything that would cause significant economic damage it seems?

U.S. Blames Iran for Attack on Saudi Oil Facilities

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed Iran for coordinated strikes on the heart of Saudi Arabia’s oil industry, saying they marked an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply. The strikes shut down half of the kingdom’s crude production, potentially roiling petroleum prices.

www.wsj.com

 

[Edgeplay_cgo]

The big question is how long production will be down. That will depend on how much damage has been done. I note that oil infrastructure is pretty robust.

 

[MikeKozlowski]

....Keep in mind that nobody has confirmed 'drones' yet except the people who say they did it...and they ain't the most honest people in that part of the world, which is really saying something. There are more than sufficient types of rocket launcher that can quite literally be thrown in a pickup truck, driven outside of the town, and lobbed into that refinery with more than sufficient probability of starting multiple fires.

Saying 'drones did it', however, stirs fears of Asymmetric Warfare (TM) which leaves us in the position of trying to kill a fly with a sledgehammer. And that's exactly what the bad guys, whoever they are (I wager forty million quatloos on the Iranians myself) want.

Mike

 

[Deleted member]

....Keep in mind that nobody has confirmed 'drones' yet except the people who say they did it...and they ain't the most honest people in that part of the world, which is really saying something. There are more than sufficient types of rocket launcher that can quite literally be thrown in a pickup truck, driven outside of the town, and lobbed into that refinery with more than sufficient probability of starting multiple fires.

Saying 'drones did it', however, stirs fears of Asymmetric Warfare (TM) which leaves us in the position of trying to kill a fly with a sledgehammer. And that's exactly what the bad guys, whoever they are (I wager forty million quatloos on the Iranians myself) want.

Mike

A drone flying into something is just a cruise missile anyway, and once they're big enough to damage refinery systems they're essentially, depending on exactly how fast, big, and long-ranged it was, either early 1920s technology or WW2 technology.

 

[JagerIV]

Yeah, drone's really aren't high tech. Especially if these were in fact locally controlled: say they had a spotter who could remote control the bombs onto targets from sight. That's pre-WW2 technology.

Well definately have to wait to see more information on what kind of drone were talking about: custom RC plane with a motorcycle engine, off the shelf heavy lift camera drone from Amazon, or something more obviously military made.

 

[Lanmandragon]

....Keep in mind that nobody has confirmed 'drones' yet except the people who say they did it...and they ain't the most honest people in that part of the world, which is really saying something. There are more than sufficient types of rocket launcher that can quite literally be thrown in a pickup truck, driven outside of the town, and lobbed into that refinery with more than sufficient probability of starting multiple fires.

Saying 'drones did it', however, stirs fears of Asymmetric Warfare (TM) which leaves us in the position of trying to kill a fly with a sledgehammer. And that's exactly what the bad guys, whoever they are (I wager forty million quatloos on the Iranians myself) want.

Mike

It's nearly certain that the Persians did it. Even space battles thinks they did and they love the Iranians.

 

[MikeKozlowski]

It's nearly certain that the Persians did it. Even space battles thinks they did and they love the Iranians.

I'm inclined to agree with you, and if so they've well and truly stepped in it this time. So far, both sides' oil facilities have been off limits, and the Iranians hiding behind the Houthis isn't going to cut it. I'm beginning to think that this time, we have to hit back just to prove a point.

 

[Deleted member]

We'll see whether or not this information goes anywhere. I consider the tanker provocations a bigger deal, really.

 

[Lanmandragon]

We'll see whether or not this information goes anywhere. I consider the tanker provocations a bigger deal, really.

Frankly I'd assume Trump will wait till after the election. Then assuming he wins it's go time.

 

[Sea Skimmer]

Pictures showing what appear to be body and tail parts of Iranian Quds-1 Cruise missiles have begun emerging via Saudi social media. As have reports that the attack was distinct mix of these missiles and smaller drones more resembling of those used against Saudi in earlier actions.



In any case the Trumpist Regime openly invited an escalation like this when it did absolutely nothing in response to Iran brazenly destroying one of its aircraft in international waters. Now Iran get's handed a much bigger victory and the US political position for striking back is much weaker. This won't stop here.

 

[Deleted member]

Iranians seize another tanker

Crew detained on charges of “diesel smuggling”, UAE flagged. Breaking news.

 

[Deleted member]

It’s now being reported that the damage to the refineries is much more serious than I initially thought, and the oil production impact—up to 5pct of world supply—will last for days.

 

[Deleted member 18]

The Iranians seem determined to keep escalating even as Trump was weakening his position on them and had fired Bolton. I don't think a war with Iran would be a good idea in the slightest, and it certainly wouldn't end with Operation Preying Mantis 2.0 destroying their navy like some might hope, but they may yet push so hard war becomes inevitable. The way much of the rest of the world seems willing to tolerate their provocations by pretending the absence of a direct smoking gun means we have no idea who is responsible for them certainly doesn't help.

Also given the scale of the attacks and behavior of the Iranian government we should be under no illusions about "rogue" regime elements. The attacks on shipping and this refinery attack were clearly authorized at the highest levels of the government, ie the Supreme Ayatollah. There's blame to go around about the nuclear deal but the Iranians are playing with fire around a gas leak that can blow up the world economy, so no matter how untrustworthy Trump might or might not be this is pretty inexcusable.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Iran is probably not going to deal with Trump whatsoever until after the elections and they see who wins. They saw Trump's dealing with North Korea and figure his desire to make a deal is a open offer as long as they aren't flat out at war with each other. So these provocations will continue unabated. They don't really have a reason to stop.

I'm sure attacks like these are (only partly) to gauge reaction since there is a lot of pressure in the West to condemn Saudi Arabia and remove our support for its operations in Yemen.

 

[PsihoKekec]

Saudis have enough high tech toys and foreign mercenaries to deal with this without USA holding their hand. Afterall, they undeniably proved their quality in Yemen.

 

[Emperor Tippy]

The Iranians seem determined to keep escalating even as Trump was weakening his position on them and had fired Bolton.

Iran needs the War to start before November 4th 2020.

A war between Iran and the Saudi/Israel alliance is all but inevitable at this point, and the best case for Iran is that the US is only neutral in SA/Israel's favor. More realistically, the US would provide political cover, ramp up economic attacks on Iran, provide SA/Israel with a nigh limitless ability to resupply, provide C4I assistance, unless the NSA/Cyber Command to show the Russians and Chinese how to really do cyberwarfare, and have the USAF and USN striking high value targets inside Iran/supporting the alliance.

The thing is, that war starting before Trump wins a second term virtually guarantees that Trump isn't reelected and so does not have US support. That war starting the day after Trump is re-elected (more ideally for Trump, around Q2 2021) is perfectly acceptable for the US and the Trump Administration.

SA and Israel aren't really ready for war with Iran today, and the US is not interested in an ME war until after the elections. Iran's best chance is to get the war started now, prevent a quick alliance victory, and let the political cost of said war get Trump out of the Whitehouse; and then sue for peace with the newly elected Democrat. The risk Iran is taking is that Trump will decide that his best play is to go all in and will unleash the US military with the loosest of ROE's inside Iran and orders to render harmless/destroy the nation of Iran and its ability to do anything as rapidly, efficiently, and safely as the US military can manage (with no attention paid to Iranian civilian casualties).