If the US would have entered WWII on the Anglo-French side in 1939 and sent an AEF to France by May 1940, would this have been enough to save France?

WolfBear

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If the US would have entered WWII on the Anglo-French side in 1939 and sent an AEF (American Expeditionary Force) to France by May 1940, would this have been enough to save France? I'm aware that a PoD for this would likely need to be in the immediate aftermath of WWI at the very latest, most likely; maybe Woodrow Wilson's 1919 stroke ends up killing him?

Anyway, thoughts on this? And what effects would this have had on the rest of WWII and on the aftermath of this war?
 
That could theoretically change with a sufficiently early PoD, though.
Have to be 37 at the latest. Probably earlier given the state of US tank and equipment in general design at the time due to not enough funding to actually build enough designs to see what actually worked
 
Have to be 37 at the latest. Probably earlier given the state of US tank and equipment in general design at the time due to not enough funding to actually build enough designs to see what actually worked

Possibly. I will defer to your greater knowledge on this.
 
No way in hell would this be politically possible in 1939. Just given the state of the US army this would not help the French and actually cripple US mobilization, since they'd lose their seedcorn for raising a bigger army later. Not only that, but it would make further action politically toxic, guarantee a loss for the president who sent them in 1940 and probably end WW2 years earlier as the US is soured on Europe after losing their army in a catastrophic defeat. The 2nd BEF might also suffer the same fate if they try to stick out the war on the continent due to the US being there.
 
No way in hell would this be politically possible in 1939. Just given the state of the US army this would not help the French and actually cripple US mobilization, since they'd lose their seedcorn for raising a bigger army later. Not only that, but it would make further action politically toxic, guarantee a loss for the president who sent them in 1940 and probably end WW2 years earlier as the US is soured on Europe after losing their army in a catastrophic defeat. The 2nd BEF might also suffer the same fate if they try to stick out the war on the continent due to the US being there.

How do you know that the state of the US Army won't be better if the US would have actually had a peacetime defensive alliance with the Anglo-French in the 1930s?
 
How do you know that the state of the US Army won't be better if the US would have actually had a peacetime defensive alliance with the Anglo-French in the 1930s?
The Depression. It would have prevented any sort of armaments spending in the 1930s and by the time that FDR had any sort of political capital to increase spending on the military it was already 1937 and the navy was the service that congress was willing to favor. It took Hitler getting the Sudetenland before any army spending was passed:

Much of that had to be spent just getting modern equipment, as the Depression had left the US army with WW1 leftovers for the most part.

Effectively though if they were going to put together an expeditionary force it would end up using WW1 equipment and French stuff if going in 1939. Likely they wouldn't be able to ship until 1940 and then would have only about 200,000 out of the 385,000 in the regular army+national guard, which means if/when they are defeated and lost it would effectively destroy the nucleus of personnel needed for a major expansion of the ground forces. Left over units could work up over time, but we're talking about the least deployable elements, which means you probably don't see any US forces even able to be deployed abroad until 1943.
The Marines BTW were less than 20,000 men as of June 1939 IOTL, which included over 4,000 men in the fleet air arm. So literally a single division. No way that would be deployed given their expectation of having to guard against Japan.

Certainly an AEF would help the Allies in France, but they'd still be working up for front line action by May 1940 since they'd be arriving the same year and probably would just end up caught up in the retreat and have to compete with the 2nd BEF to escape. We know the Brits would favor their own forces over their allies and the general disaster of the situation by June would mean the US forces probably just end up getting used up the vain hope of stopping Case Red.
 
The Depression. It would have prevented any sort of armaments spending in the 1930s and by the time that FDR had any sort of political capital to increase spending on the military it was already 1937 and the navy was the service that congress was willing to favor. It took Hitler getting the Sudetenland before any army spending was passed:

Much of that had to be spent just getting modern equipment, as the Depression had left the US army with WW1 leftovers for the most part.

Effectively though if they were going to put together an expeditionary force it would end up using WW1 equipment and French stuff if going in 1939. Likely they wouldn't be able to ship until 1940 and then would have only about 200,000 out of the 385,000 in the regular army+national guard, which means if/when they are defeated and lost it would effectively destroy the nucleus of personnel needed for a major expansion of the ground forces. Left over units could work up over time, but we're talking about the least deployable elements, which means you probably don't see any US forces even able to be deployed abroad until 1943.
The Marines BTW were less than 20,000 men as of June 1939 IOTL, which included over 4,000 men in the fleet air arm. So literally a single division. No way that would be deployed given their expectation of having to guard against Japan.

Certainly an AEF would help the Allies in France, but they'd still be working up for front line action by May 1940 since they'd be arriving the same year and probably would just end up caught up in the retreat and have to compete with the 2nd BEF to escape. We know the Brits would favor their own forces over their allies and the general disaster of the situation by June would mean the US forces probably just end up getting used up the vain hope of stopping Case Red.

Ironically, one would think that the Depression should have made Americans more willing to support rearmament as a way of providing extra jobs to unemployed Americans.
 
The ones who would wanted straight social spending. No one wanted armaments unless there was a reason for that spending.

The United States, had a very distant, exposed, and therefore logistically difficult and expensive colony/protectorate to defend in the western Pacific, a couple even. The Philippines, Guam, Wake. Defending them from Japan would have been no problem on the over-insured Cold War budgets, even the relatively cheap-ass ones from the Truman, Eisenhower, and Nixon-Ford drawdowns. But there was no floor to the amount of skimping the interwar US did on imperial/colonial protection.

Depending on how you look at the pennies and dollars, spending on military and naval insurance to defend US forward positions can add up to alot of dollars and cents. But hey, not having your all-American blond teachers and nurses from Vermont, Iowa, and Texas get raped by invading Japanese soldiers? Priceless.
 
But hey, not having your all-American blond teachers and nurses from Vermont, Iowa, and Texas get raped by invading Japanese soldiers? Priceless.

You're assuming that the "feminine" Japanese would actually have the necessary libido for this, which isn't actually guaranteed! ;) I wonder if manga already existed even back then. If so, then they might have already preferred to be virtual boyfriends with cute manga waifus! :D
 
@sillygoose Off-topic, but I have another question for you: Had France avoided sending their strategic reserve to the Low Countries and instead kept it at Rheims as per their original plan, what do you think that the odds would have been of France successfully stopping Operation Sickle Cut in May 1940?
 
You're assuming that the "feminine" Japanese would actually have the necessary libido for this, which isn't actually guaranteed! ;) I wonder if manga already existed even back then. If so, then they might have already preferred to be virtual boyfriends with cute manga waifus! :D
In order to get anything close to the level of Japanese infiltration a Japanese "Honey Trap" would need to not get caught she would have to vastly surpass my dad's mother in terms of "here's how you don't get caught".

She was born in 1928 in the Midwest and did not know Japanese.
 
what do you think that the odds would have been of France successfully stopping Operation Sickle Cut in May 1940?
Considering that the OTL Sickle Cut succeeding was Germany rolling 6s one after another, having the French mobile reserve closer to Sedan would make stopping it something like ... 99%?

As to a POD needed to create a US Army capable of not peeing on its shoes in early 1940 - Panay War.
Either FDR goes to war to hide his fuck ups and dictatorial urges, or he fails to suppress the footage and wide eyed Patriots bay for blood.
So, all of '38 and '39 to build an army ... the US buying licenses left and right for weapons and trying to buy ready made from Europe :)

Now, the US units in France in 1940 would have to be in the right place to make a difference.

There was a Panay War TL. On AH.com? On Warships1?
 
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@sillygoose Off-topic, but I have another question for you: Had France avoided sending their strategic reserve to the Low Countries and instead kept it at Rheims as per their original plan, what do you think that the odds would have been of France successfully stopping Operation Sickle Cut in May 1940?
What happened to that reserve IOTL?
Some of the best Allied units in the north had seen little fighting. Had they been kept in reserve, they might have been used in a counter-attack. Pre-war General Staff Studies had concluded that the main reserves were to be kept on French soil to resist an invasion of the Low Countries. They could also deliver a counterattack or "re-establish the integrity of the original front".[152] Despite having a numerically superior armoured force, the French failed to use it properly or to deliver an attack on the vulnerable German bulge. The Germans combined their fighting vehicles in divisions and used them at the point of main effort. The bulk of French armour was scattered along the front in tiny formations.
Most of the French reserve divisions had by now been committed. The 1st DCr had been wiped out when it had run out of fuel and the 3rd DCr had failed to take its opportunity to destroy the German bridgeheads at Sedan. The only armoured division still in reserve, the 2nd DCr, was to attack on 16 May west of Saint-Quentin, Aisne. The division commander could locate only seven of its twelve companies, which were scattered along a 49 mi × 37 mi (79 km × 60 km) front. The formation was overrun by the 8th Panzer Division while still forming up and was destroyed as a fighting unit.[153]
The 4th DCr, led by de Gaulle, attempted to launch an attack from the south at Montcornet, where Guderian had his Korps headquarters and the 1st Panzer Division had its rear services. During the Battle of Montcornet, Germans hastily improvised a defence while Guderian rushed up the 10th Panzer Division to threaten de Gaulle's flank. This flank pressure and dive-bombing by Fliegerkorps VIII (General Wolfram von Richthofen) broke up the attack. French losses on 17 May amounted to 32 tanks and armoured vehicles but the French had "inflicted loss on the Germans". On 19 May, after receiving reinforcements, de Gaulle attacked again and was repulsed with the loss of 80 out of 155 vehicles.[154] Fliegerkorps VIII attacked French units massing on the German flanks and prevented most counter-attacks from starting. The defeat of the 4th DCr and the disintegration of the French Ninth Army was caused mainly by the Fliegerkorps.[155] The 4th DCr had achieved a measure of success but the attacks on 17 and 19 May had only local effect.[156]
They lacked air support and got smashed while assembling or carrying out operations. The Germans had largely achieved air dominance by this point. Same reason the Germans counterattacks against the Allies in Normandy failed repeatedly.
In France though there was the added problem of lack of radios and too systematic and linear thinking among the French army, so they simply got overrun when trying to organize and set up lines or counterattacks.
 

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