If Russian Tsar Nicholas II has a son in either 1895 or 1897 and subsequently dies in 1915, would this be enough to prevent revolution in Russia?

[Skallagrim]

Like a more rabid Serbian nationalist regime?

Precisely.

Anyway, would there have still been a League of Nations in this TL?

A horrible and pointless war, but less total ruination and collapse of states = probably more support for some kind of international organisation of that kind than in OTL.

And does the Ottoman Empire still get back all of its pre-war territories? Or would it have forfeited its claim to Ottoman Armenia due to the Armenian Genocide?

I think status quo ante is status quo ante. Besides, if there isn't any hostile power with boots on the ground to take something from you, it's still yours. So who's going to unilaterally keep fighting just to take Armenia away from the Turks? Nobody, that's who. (There may be Armnian insurrections, of course.)

And as for the rebelling Arabs who are conducting the Arab Revolt, is Britain going to say "We're so worry, but we're now throwing you under the bus for the sake of peace?"

Pretty much. That sort of thing happened on the regular. Throwing "native allies" (that you incited to rebel) under the bus after the conflict is no longer opportune... that's old hat for pretty much every colonial empire.

 

[WolfBear]

Precisely.


A horrible and pointless war, but less total ruination and collapse of states = probably more support for some kind of international organisation of that kind than in OTL.


I think status quo ante is status quo ante. Besides, if there isn't any hostile power with boots on the ground to take something from you, it's still yours. So who's going to unilaterally keep fighting just to take Armenia away from the Turks? Nobody, that's who. (There may be Armnian insurrections, of course.)


Pretty much. That sort of thing happened on the regular. Throwing "native allies" (that you incited to rebel) under the bus after the conflict is no longer opportune... that's old hat for pretty much every colonial empire.

FWIW, the Russians were already sitting on a sizable amount of Ottoman Armenian territory by the end of 1916. Would they have to withdraw from all of it?

Otherwise, good analysis.

 

[Skallagrim]

FWIW, the Russians were already sitting on a sizable amount of Ottoman Armenian territory by the end of 1916. Would they have to withdraw from all of it?

Unilaterally going against the principle of status qo ante after it was the result of peace talks you intiated just looks bad. Also, the war is unpopular, and Armenia would hae to be heavily fortified. Not worth it.

The aftermath of the war is like a terrible hangover, and everybody just sort of slinks home, trying not to be seen. Imagine it like that, and you've got the gist, I think.

 

[WolfBear]

Unilaterally going against the principle of status qo ante after it was the result of peace talks you intiated just looks bad. Also, the war is unpopular, and Armenia would hae to be heavily fortified. Not worth it.

The aftermath of the war is like a terrible hangover, and everybody just sort of slinks home, trying not to be seen. Imagine it like that, and you've got the gist, I think.

Makes sense. Anyway, do the surviving Ottoman Armenians get deported en masse to Russia (or at least voluntarily emigrate to Russia out of fear for their own lives)?