If Russian Tsar Nicholas II has a son in either 1895 or 1897 and Nicholas himself subsequently dies in 1915, would this be enough to prevent revolution in Russia? Assume that the son in question would have the personality of one of Nicholas's two eldest daughters, only male.
If Russian Tsar Nicholas II has a son in either 1895 or 1897 and subsequently dies in 1915, would this be enough to prevent revolution in Russia?
- Thread starter WolfBear
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@Skallagrim @History Learner Since you're both experts in Russian history, what do you think about this?
Skallagrim
Well-known member
This is almost impossible to predict. For starters, is the Tsarevich healthy, or is he afflicted by haemophilia, same as poor Alexei in OTL? This obviously matters. Since you seek to replace one of the two eldest daughters, neither of whom had it, I'm tentatively assuming it's not a problem. This means Rasputin won't be able to exert such influence as in OTL. He may still worm himself into close proximity by claiming to heal Alexei, but since Alexei isn't the heir, this is politically less critical.
Once Nicholas II dies in 1915, his son -- let's call him Nicholas III -- wil, still be quite young. He'll be 20 or perhaps even just 18. A figure who may exert influence my be his uncle, Michael, who in OTL soon became extremely despondent over the horrors of the war. Interestingly, both Olga and Tatiana served as Red Cross nurses during the war, and also came to abhor the bloodshed. If Nicholas III shares their personality, I could see him attempting to end the conflict on reasonable terms. Especially if his closest adult male relative, Michael, is strongly pushing for that as well.
If Russia takes this position, the 1916 peace proposals may find a way to succeed. Russia would be on board, the USA would be advocating for it, Karl would have taken over in Austria-Hungary and he was ardently in favour of peace...
"Home by Christmas" might come true after all, albeit two years later than expected.
Once Nicholas II dies in 1915, his son -- let's call him Nicholas III -- wil, still be quite young. He'll be 20 or perhaps even just 18. A figure who may exert influence my be his uncle, Michael, who in OTL soon became extremely despondent over the horrors of the war. Interestingly, both Olga and Tatiana served as Red Cross nurses during the war, and also came to abhor the bloodshed. If Nicholas III shares their personality, I could see him attempting to end the conflict on reasonable terms. Especially if his closest adult male relative, Michael, is strongly pushing for that as well.
If Russia takes this position, the 1916 peace proposals may find a way to succeed. Russia would be on board, the USA would be advocating for it, Karl would have taken over in Austria-Hungary and he was ardently in favour of peace...
"Home by Christmas" might come true after all, albeit two years later than expected.
Yes, he won't have hemophilia because his mother Alexandra's eggs will remain the same. It's Nicholas's sperm that will change.
Any idea as to what such a peace might look like? Would there be any face-saving solutions for France in Alsace-Lorraine, Italy in the Italian parts of A-H, Romania in Transylvania and Bukovina, et cetera?
Skallagrim
Well-known member
I'm inclined to say that the only viable way to make peace stick is to go with status quo ante.
In anyone is seen losing anything, it'll be unacceptable to them, and that'll keep them from agreeing to end the war. At this point, they all still figured they had a shot.
Interesting. I wonder if Nicholas III might be persuaded to try remaining in the war for a little bit longer to see if Germany will actually resume USW and thus bring the US into the war.
But I'm also wondering if both 1917 Russian Revolutions actually occur on schedule in this TL.
Skallagrim
Well-known member
I a peace process really gets going, I think the will to continue the carnage will quickly collapse on all sides. Negotiations might take a while (even return to status quo will require case-based compensation arrangements, certainly), but an armistice will be effected quickly. At that point, revolutions get prevented. As I always stress: revolutions are born of despair. The joy of peace will dissipate the potential energy that would otherwise be actualised in the form of revolutionary violence. That energy within society will instead be redirected into rebuilding efforts.
Interesting analysis, but I also can't help wondering if people will be angry at their leadership for dragging them into a war that produced nothing meaningful except mass death, suffering, and destruction. Of course, some of the leaders who dragged Europe into a World War, such as Nicholas II and Franz Joseph, would have already been dead by 1917 in this TL. So, that could reduce the public anger in regards to this. But there will be a push for more transparent and more accountable government, no doubt!
Skallagrim
Well-known member
A sronger push for constitutional monarchy is a certainty!
Does France remain the only republic among Europe's Great Powers in this TL?
Also, off-topic, but you might be interested in this thread of mine:
Skallagrim
Well-known member
Well, we've talked about that before. I don't see monarchies being cast aside willy-nilly.
Though taking Europe into an extremely bloody three-year war isn't exactly "willy-nilly".
Skallagrim
Well-known member
The war lasted longer in OTL, and didn't randomly see monarchies falling. Where it happened, there were very clear reasons for it. I think a good example is Italy. They fought in OTL, they formally were on the winning side, and they gained peanuts. This caused major political discontent and ultimately sparked the ascent of fascism, but it didn't lead to Victor Emmanuel III getting deposed. He got some death threats in the mail during the war, but even that stopped when the war ended.
I think that if you get a Christmas Peace in 1916, all of Europe will see considerable discontent, and the generation of young men that saw countless brothers die in the trenches will grow up angry. Twenty years later, they may lead governments/regimes that strongly embrace revanchism ("we were robbed of victory by the cwards of 1916!"). At that time, certain monarchies may get abolished. Then again, Victor Emmanuel III also shows that this doesn't need to be the case.
Republicanism as a direct reponse to the war having happened at all, though? I don't see that happening.
Fair points. That said, though, just how would the Serbian issue be resolved in a TL where WWI ends in a 1916 Christmas peace (or at least armistice)?
Skallagrim
Well-known member
Carefully.
But seriously, I think the actual flashpoint has now gone, so some kind of international arbitration will probably be initiated. Since this all occurs before the USA entered the War in OTL, I can see the Americans playing a major role as one of the arbiters.
Carefully.
But seriously, I think the actual flashpoint has now gone, so some kind of international arbitration will probably be initiated. Since this all occurs before the USA entered the War in OTL, I can see the Americans playing a major role as one of the arbiters.
In other words, similar to Tsar Nicholas II's late July 1914 proposal to take the Austria-Hungary vs. Serbia dispute to the Hague?
Skallagrim
Well-known member
Yeah. The irony will not be lost on anyone. The whole war was for nothing.
Will the existing Serbian royal family be allowed to keep their throne and remain in power in Serbia?
Skallagrim
Well-known member
Only Austria-Hungary might want them gone, and even they ought to understand that removing the House of Karađorđević risks putting something far more hostile in power.
Like a more rabid Serbian nationalist regime?
Anyway, would there have still been a League of Nations in this TL? And does the Ottoman Empire still get back all of its pre-war territories? Or would it have forfeited its claim to Ottoman Armenia due to the Armenian Genocide? And as for the rebelling Arabs who are conducting the Arab Revolt, is Britain going to say "We're so worry, but we're now throwing you under the bus for the sake of peace?"