How would a mid-20th century war between a non-Communist Russia and Britain in order to liberate British India look like?

[WolfBear]

How would a mid-20th century war between a non-Communist Russia and Britain in order to liberate British India look like? I don't care whether the Russia in question is Tsarist, Fascist, Socialist Revolutionary, or something else, just so long as it decides to ally with Indian nationalists in order to forcibly expel the British from India. Having Russia outright annex India probably wouldn't work for demographic reasons (too many South Asians relative to Slavs), but Russia could install a friendly client and allied regime in India and thus get its access to the Indian Ocean that way in the event of a Russian victory in this war. Russia could also create an independent Balochistan puppet state as insurance in the event that India will ever become hostile towards Russia in the future.

Basically, I'm thinking of having Russia engage in such moves as a part of an attempt to build a giant Eurasian power bloc with itself as its center, at least initially. This could also involve Russia previously going to war with Japan over China and Korea in order to liberate those two territories from Japanese rule and install friendly client and allied regimes in those two countries. So, Yeah, basically build a giant Eurasian bloc consisting of Russia, China, Korea, India, and who knows who else--Persia, perhaps?

Anyway, how would a non-Communist Russian invasion of British India in the mid-20th century have looked like? (Assume no World War II, at the very least, so Indian independence would be delayed; maybe no World War I either, though that's not guaranteed.) I would presume that logistics would be a huge challenge for Russia and that Russia would aim to ally with Afghanistan, promising the Afghans the Pashtun-majority territories of British India in exchange for having the Afghans agree to invade British India along with the Russians. Russia could, of course, also build an Indian nationalist army/military in exile, perhaps led by someone such as Subhas Chandra Bose, who appears to have been quite the militant type.

How do you see such a war progressing and ultimately turning out?

 

[stevep]

How would a mid-20th century war between a non-Communist Russia and Britain in order to liberate British India look like? I don't care whether the Russia in question is Tsarist, Fascist, Socialist Revolutionary, or something else, just so long as it decides to ally with Indian nationalists in order to forcibly expel the British from India. Having Russia outright annex India probably wouldn't work for demographic reasons (too many South Asians relative to Slavs), but Russia could install a friendly client and allied regime in India and thus get its access to the Indian Ocean that way in the event of a Russian victory in this war. Russia could also create an independent Balochistan puppet state as insurance in the event that India will ever become hostile towards Russia in the future.

Basically, I'm thinking of having Russia engage in such moves as a part of an attempt to build a giant Eurasian power bloc with itself as its center, at least initially. This could also involve Russia previously going to war with Japan over China and Korea in order to liberate those two territories from Japanese rule and install friendly client and allied regimes in those two countries. So, Yeah, basically build a giant Eurasian bloc consisting of Russia, China, Korea, India, and who knows who else--Persia, perhaps?

Anyway, how would a non-Communist Russian invasion of British India in the mid-20th century have looked like? (Assume no World War II, at the very least, so Indian independence would be delayed; maybe no World War I either, though that's not guaranteed.) I would presume that logistics would be a huge challenge for Russia and that Russia would aim to ally with Afghanistan, promising the Afghans the Pashtun-majority territories of British India in exchange for having the Afghans agree to invade British India along with the Russians. Russia could, of course, also build an Indian nationalist army/military in exile, perhaps led by someone such as Subhas Chandra Bose, who appears to have been quite the militant type.

How do you see such a war progressing and ultimately turning out?

It would all depend on the circumstances. Unless you have some democratic Russia I think they would seek more control over India than the Indians would tolerate although they might not realise Russian intent, as opposed to stated aims until too late to stop an occupation, at least in the short term.

Britain can't hold Indian without considerable local support. That's always been the case so the big issues would be how powerful Russia is, the state of Britain both in power and in will to fight for India and what the popular situation inside India is.

 

[WolfBear]

It would all depend on the circumstances. Unless you have some democratic Russia I think they would seek more control over India than the Indians would tolerate although they might not realise Russian intent, as opposed to stated aims until too late to stop an occupation, at least in the short term.

Britain can't hold Indian without considerable local support. That's always been the case so the big issues would be how powerful Russia is, the state of Britain both in power and in will to fight for India and what the popular situation inside India is.

Sure, Russia would want to put someone whom it can rely on in charge of India. However, it would also want to make sure that its choice would actually be reasonably acceptable to the Indian population. Else, there could be a risk of future Indian uprisings and revolutions against Russia's chosen Indian leader.

There is also the question of how Russia will try to arbitrate the Hindu-Muslim divide in India if it will still exist in this scenario.

 

[stevep]

Sure, Russia would want to put someone whom it can rely on in charge of India. However, it would also want to make sure that its choice would actually be reasonably acceptable to the Indian population. Else, there could be a risk of future Indian uprisings and revolutions against Russia's chosen Indian leader.

There is also the question of how Russia will try to arbitrate the Hindu-Muslim divide in India if it will still exist in this scenario.

Well it would still exist and Russia might be able to use some divide and rule tactics there, although that could be risky for him. It might not be quite as violent as OTL depending on events between ~1917 and whenever the Russian offensive moves.

 

[WolfBear]

Well it would still exist and Russia might be able to use some divide and rule tactics there, although that could be risky for him. It might not be quite as violent as OTL depending on events between ~1917 and whenever the Russian offensive moves.

If Russia really wanted to play divide and rule, it could partition India into several independent states/countries.

 

[stevep]

If Russia really wanted to play divide and rule, it could partition India into several independent states/countries.

It could try and with the predominantly Muslim areas and possibly some of the princely states it could have support. However if the bulk of the population opposes Russian control then unless their willing to go the Nazi route sooner or later the Russians are going to find things too costly.

 

[WolfBear]

It could try and with the predominantly Muslim areas and possibly some of the princely states it could have support. However if the bulk of the population opposes Russian control then unless their willing to go the Nazi route sooner or later the Russians are going to find things too costly.

Well, Yeah, I was thinking of real life's division here: An independent Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh. Maybe create a conflict between Pakistan and India over Kashmir in order to make the two of them distracted and dependent on Russia as a peace broker and mediator.

 

[raharris1973]

If the war starts too late, or lasts too long, it could get atomic, which would be a shame.

 

[WolfBear]

If the war starts too late, or lasts too long, it could get atomic, which would be a shame.

Though Britain's options for nuking Russia are rather limited. The parts of Russia that it can nuke don't have that many Russians, after all. Imagine the outcry when Russia's Muslim colonial subjects in Central Asia get nuked by Britain in response to Russia's military intervention in India, for instance. Could make the Muslims in the British Empire rather jittery and anxious in support of their fellow Central Asian Muslim brethren, after all!

 

[stevep]

Though Britain's options for nuking Russia are rather limited. The parts of Russia that it can nuke don't have that many Russians, after all. Imagine the outcry when Russia's Muslim colonial subjects in Central Asia get nuked by Britain in response to Russia's military intervention in India, for instance. Could make the Muslims in the British Empire rather jittery and anxious in support of their fellow Central Asian Muslim brethren, after all!

That would depend on the technological levels. Unlikely to see nukes available without either long ranged bombers or missiles of some kind. Plus Russia, assuming something like OTL would have at least one very important target - Baku - well within range of a British nuclear attack.

Or there's simply tactical use of the weapons. The Russians would have some very exposed supply lines going through C Asia and then places like Afghanistan for a massive invasion of India.

Not to mention the irony your suggesting here. Russia is invading India to 'liberate' it while holding millions of Muslims under their control.

 

[WolfBear]

That would depend on the technological levels. Unlikely to see nukes available without either long ranged bombers or missiles of some kind. Plus Russia, assuming something like OTL would have at least one very important target - Baku - well within range of a British nuclear attack.

Or there's simply tactical use of the weapons. The Russians would have some very exposed supply lines going through C Asia and then places like Afghanistan for a massive invasion of India.

Not to mention the irony your suggesting here. Russia is invading India to 'liberate' it while holding millions of Muslims under their control.

Good point about nuking Baku. That should hurt Russia a lot since that's where Russia gets a lot of its oil. Also good point about tactical uses of nukes. As for Russia ruling over millions of Muslims, they'll simply claim that their own rule over Muslims is progressive while that of the British is regressive--similar to the Soviet Union's attitude on colonialism in real life! When the French were colonizing Algeria, it was big bad evil French imperialists, but when the Soviet Union was colonizing Central Asia, it was all good!

 

[WolfBear]

@stevep What are your thoughts on Russia making a Molotov-Ribbentrop-style deal with Indian nationalists (especially the Subhas Chandra Bose types) to partition Afghanistan between Russia and India as a part of the Russian struggle for Indian independence? They could portray it as both Russia and India being higher, more civilized nations who deserve to bring culture and enlightenment to the backward, illiterate, tribalistic, and clannish peoples of Afghanistan. The Hindu Kush could be the new Russo-Indian border in the event of a Russian victory in this war, of course.

 

[stevep]

@stevep What are your thoughts on Russia making a Molotov-Ribbentrop-style deal with Indian nationalists (especially the Subhas Chandra Bose types) to partition Afghanistan between Russia and India as a part of the Russian struggle for Indian independence? They could portray it as both Russia and India being higher, more civilized nations who deserve to bring culture and enlightenment to the backward, illiterate, tribalistic, and clannish peoples of Afghanistan. The Hindu Kush could be the new Russo-Indian border in the event of a Russian victory in this war, of course.

A lot would depend on the exact circumstances. After all if the Indians are still fighting for independence against British opposition and the Russians are coming in to 'help' them then what would be the argument for 'India' to get any part of Afghanistan. Unless the Russians, working with right wing Hindu nationalists realise that there will be a hell of a lot of Muslims unhappy with such an Indian and adding more restless Muslims, especially those with such an history of often ferocious resistance to invaders might be happy to give the new India the burden of handling such a mess.

More likely I would expect is that Russia would want some territory, either in the Muslim parts of British India or possibly eastern Iran to get a warm water port on the Indian Ocean, especially since this might also get access to/influence over at least parts of the Gulf and the growing oil reserves of the region.

 

[WolfBear]

A lot would depend on the exact circumstances. After all if the Indians are still fighting for independence against British opposition and the Russians are coming in to 'help' them then what would be the argument for 'India' to get any part of Afghanistan. Unless the Russians, working with right wing Hindu nationalists realise that there will be a hell of a lot of Muslims unhappy with such an Indian and adding more restless Muslims, especially those with such an history of often ferocious resistance to invaders might be happy to give the new India the burden of handling such a mess.

More likely I would expect is that Russia would want some territory, either in the Muslim parts of British India or possibly eastern Iran to get a warm water port on the Indian Ocean, especially since this might also get access to/influence over at least parts of the Gulf and the growing oil reserves of the region.

I suspect that Russia might want to give India more Muslims so that it could more easily play divide-and-conquer in India after independence: Play the Muslims off against the Hindus for influence and vice versa. But if the Hindus are not going to take the bait, then maybe Russia would want to annex all of Afghanistan for itself. That, and also possibly annex Balochistan in order to get access to the Indian Ocean. Annexing Persian territory could make Persia a future enemy of Russia, which I'm unsure that Russia would actually want.

 

[Ricardolindo]

I think this scenario is implausible. The idea that the Russians had any interest in India appears to have been British paranoia.

 

[WolfBear]

I think this scenario is implausible. The idea that the Russians had any interest in India appears to have been British paranoia.

But the idea of the Russians building goodwill in India by liberating them from British rule is not 100% ASB. I agree that it's unlikely, but with the right Russian leadership, it could work.

One could think that Germany expanding up to the Urals was likewise ASB, and yet Nazi Germany wanted to do this in real life and almost succeeded!

 

[stevep]

I suspect that Russia might want to give India more Muslims so that it could more easily play divide-and-conquer in India after independence: Play the Muslims off against the Hindus for influence and vice versa. But if the Hindus are not going to take the bait, then maybe Russia would want to annex all of Afghanistan for itself. That, and also possibly annex Balochistan in order to get access to the Indian Ocean. Annexing Persian territory could make Persia a future enemy of Russia, which I'm unsure that Russia would actually want.

If it gave them a port on the Indian Ocean and a land link to it then Persian hostility, if any Persian state existed in those circumstances, is something that the Russians would consider secondary.

If their not interested in or don't think such a port would be available I suspect they would be happy with India having Afghanistan. Whether they could persuade the Indians to accept it might be another matter.

 

[stevep]

I think this scenario is implausible. The idea that the Russians had any interest in India appears to have been British paranoia.

Well there was definite concern. How logical it was I don't know but their logistics for anything but a possible raid would have been horrendous.

On the other hand, when Napoleon and Alexander I of Russia signed their alliance at Tilsit one of the ideas suggested was a joint attack on India by an overland route. [Although it might have been via Anatolia rather than Central Asia, I can't remember off the top of my head]. Which seems like total poppycock to put it mildly.

 

[PsihoKekec]

But the idea of the Russians building goodwill in India by liberating them from British rule is not 100% ASB.

And how the hell are they supposed to do that? Look at the topographical map of the region, waging that kind of war would be a world class idiocy, British Indian Army can hold them back indefinitely.

 

[WolfBear]

And how the hell are they supposed to do that? Look at the topographical map of the region, waging that kind of war would be a world class idiocy, British Indian Army can hold them back indefinitely.

Paratroopers, as with the Nazis in Crete in 1941?