Breaking News Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapses

One reason I'm not accepting the "this was just a freak accident where a whole number of things went wrong" explanation is that if it were true, then for every case where all of those things went wrong, there ought to be multiple cases in which only some of them did. How many times does it happen that a cargo ship loses control of where it's going and hits something that's not a critical part of a bridge? How many of them just run aground? Or don't hit anything but have to have tugs chase them and rescue?

Don't ask me to believe that the one time this sort of system failure occurred, the ship just happened to be pointing in the worst possible direction. That says "enemy action".

Never underestimate how badly simple human error can fuck things up.
 
Wondering how long it'll take for the Francis Scott Key Bridge to be rebuilt ?
The I-35W bridge that collapsed in Minnesota was replaced in about a year. This one is bigger and in more challenging waters but also more critical (I think). Off the cuff, I'd guess in the ballpark of two years if Congress concurs with Biden's proposal for federal funding of the replacement (as was done by Bush for Minnesota).
 
One reason I'm not accepting the "this was just a freak accident where a whole number of things went wrong" explanation is that if it were true, then for every case where all of those things went wrong, there ought to be multiple cases in which only some of them did. How many times does it happen that a cargo ship loses control of where it's going and hits something that's not a critical part of a bridge? How many of them just run aground? Or don't hit anything but have to have tugs chase them and rescue?

Don't ask me to believe that the one time this sort of system failure occurred, the ship just happened to be pointing in the worst possible direction. That says "enemy action".
You haven't watched enough Deadliest Catch if you think ships suffering power loss issues an inopportune times is this suspicious.

Also, you have seen those videos of ships running into cranes at docks, and you have to remember Evergiven in the Suez.

Sometimes accidents happen in really shitty spots, and there doesn't need to be anything 'nefarious' or 'conspiratorial' involved, and trying to find some sort of hostile act/conspiracy in things like this just burns credibility for things that matter.

It's like Alex Jones and the Sandy Hook shit. Jones shoot himself in the foot repeatedly on that out of stubbornness and pride over his theory of events, made life hell for parents who'd just lost kids with his 'crisis actors' crap, and made it harder to believe him over things like the Wu Flu, it's vaxxes, or several other progressive plots tat have ended up outed.

Jumping the gun into conspiracy territory right off the bat, just because you think that coincidences and bad luck must equate to hostile action or a conspiracy, just burns credibility for no good reason beside clicks, at best.

That’s an interesting coincidence. Which I am not sure it is.
You got any proof this is not just an accident?

Because you remember the big yellow mod post a few pages back, and what it said about claims of responsibility and such?

So yeah, if you don't proof of hostile action, don't insinuate it if you want to stay in the thread.
Right wing media really is just as filled with drama queens as left wing media, isn't it?
It's filled with grifters who make their money turning everything into a conspiracy theory and pretending to have more social clout, leverage, knowledge, and pull than they actually have.

The RW media ecosystem cannot even come close to competing with most progressive/liberal media ecosystems, so it's mostly focused on grifting from the people who won't watch anything else, and who will kneejerk 'trust' RW media on the mistaken assumption that RW media personalities/channels care about more than trying to carve off a slice of their other RW competitors viewship and keep themselves afloat another month.

Even the Daily Wire is rather dodgy in this regard, because it pretends the world Ben Shapiro lives in in his head is the same one the rest of modern society lives in and shares most of the same values.

Also, a lot of people on the Right believe in a 'rational world', thus try to find some sort of person or group behind any event that seems 'irrational' to blame it on, because the Right doesn't like admitting sometimes shit happens and no amount of logic or reason can prevent it or account for it or be assigned blame for it.
 


Very important thread.

The harbor pilot used his cell phone to call the harbor master and tell them to close the bridge, within 30-60 seconds of the ship losing power and the loss of radio, and likely saved lives, as it was only 90 seconds after the harbor master ordered the bridge closed that the ship hit the pylon.
 
The harbor pilot used his cell phone to call the harbor master and tell them to close the bridge, within 30-60 seconds of the ship losing power and the loss of radio, and likely saved lives, as it was only 90 seconds after the harbor master ordered the bridge closed that the ship hit the pylon.
Smart guy.

Might have been a standard precausion, but still smart and quick.


There's a chance he knew more, I guess. Either trajecory or something, but just having the presence of mind to do that in an emergancy is pretty good.
 


Very important thread.

The harbor pilot used his cell phone to call the harbor master and tell them to close the bridge, within 30-60 seconds of the ship losing power and the loss of radio, and likely saved lives, as it was only 90 seconds after the harbor master ordered the bridge closed that the ship hit the pylon.




Interesting. I was being informed earlier that this accident was likely due to DEI hires and Woke killing Competency in Maryland.

Was that presumptuous?
 
Smart guy.

Might have been a standard precausion, but still smart and quick.


There's a chance he knew more, I guess. Either trajecory or something, but just having the presence of mind to do that in an emergancy is pretty good.
The harbor pilot knew they were heading toward the bridge without power, and at a decent clip.

He'd also know the tide, currents, and timing of both better than the ship's crew.

He saved lives with that phone call, even if he probably hoped it would end up as unnecessary.


Interesting. I was being informed earlier that this accident was likely due to DEI hires and Woke killing Competency in Maryland.

Was that presumptuous?

They want to blame their pet peeves or conspiracies first and foremost, not get facts.

After all, why let a crisis go to waste, when even erroneous presumptions early on can 'spur a conversation'.

Whatever else comes of this investigation, it doesn't seem like the harbor pilot shirked any of their duties, if this account is true.
 
You can’t re-do the bridge supports from standalone piers to collision resistant islands like the new Skyway Bridge has, because those are structural braces, not just like, bits of gravel agglomerated around the anchor piers.
:rolleyes: Yeah, it's not possible to build something around something else that's already there. Never been done before in the history of ever. Concrete has never been laid around something that was already there. Ever.
 
:rolleyes: Yeah, it's not possible to build something around something else that's already there. Never been done before in the history of ever. Concrete has never been laid around something that was already there. Ever.
As I said, there’s a lot more to those islands than a bit of gravel. The collision resistant piers involve substantially deeper foundations, more flexible material composition, greater margins of structural redundancy, and other engineering features which cannot be implemented retroactively.
 
As I said, there’s a lot more to those islands than a bit of gravel. The collision resistant piers involve substantially deeper foundations, more flexible material composition, greater margins of structural redundancy, and other engineering features which cannot be implemented retroactively.
I don't know the details of those, but I do know they could do some partial stuff, even if it's not as good.

I'm not sure it would have helped against a fully loaded 100 000 ton cargo ship, though.


Doesn't matter. They didn't. Likely didn't want to spend the money, now they have to deal with it.
 
:rolleyes: Yeah, it's not possible to build something around something else that's already there. Never been done before in the history of ever. Concrete has never been laid around something that was already there. Ever.

I don't know the details of those, but I do know they could do some partial stuff, even if it's not as good.

I'm not sure it would have helped against a fully loaded 100 000 ton cargo ship, though.


Doesn't matter. They didn't. Likely didn't want to spend the money, now they have to deal with it.
So... to me this is like when people from the northern US blame Virginia, Maryland, and DC for shutting down when they get more than six inches of snow.

What do I mean? Yes, the Mid-Atlantic states totally COULD put more money into building and maintaining supplies, employees, and vehicle fleet required to keep the DC Metro region open when we get greater amounts of snowfall. The region ain't poor after all, and when we have a snowy winter and the government and schools end up spending weeks shut down over a few months it seems really silly that they don't.

But then, the average amount of annual snowfall is around 15 inches spread over six months (November, December, January, February, March, and April)... that averages to less than 3 inches per month, and while yes, you'd be right that most snowfall is concentrated in Winter proper (late December to early March) and grant only 3 inches to the months outside of that three month period... that leads to an average of... 4 inches per month. Well below six inches of snowfall. Thus why maintain the resources needed for more than that?*

In other words, what I'm saying is yes, in hindsight it's likely they COULD have done more to secure the bridge; however, the how likely they would NEEDING such expensive engineering reinforcement was likely deemed too low of a chance based on the past history of the bridge and Maritime use of Baltimore (which, bear in mind, has been a port since the COLONIAL PERIOD). Thus based on the history and experience of things they had no expectation that such a black swan event was likely to happen and so the expense of such upgrades was likely discarded. Yes, technically, they took a gamble, but they were gambling against a boat rolling a series of Nat 1s that most folks would dismiss as probable.

----------------------
* Another factor to consider for this is snowfall in the region, based on the over 30 years I've lived there is that snowfall tends to either be light and under six inches, or be end of days blizzards that dump feet of snow and ice in such a rapid period that even more northern cities would shut down due to them... with little in between.
 
So... to me this is like when people from the northern US blame Virginia, Maryland, and DC for shutting down when they get more than six inches of snow.

Or Portland. Portland got *heavily* mocked (including by many of its own residents) for how badly things got shut down by unusually huge snowfall a few years ago; the answer is that the amount the city budgets for winter storm control is rationally based on normal trends. A city the same size in the Midwest can handle the greater snowfall of that year with ease; it also runs on the order of triple the annual snow budget, and has far larger numbers of heavy trucks and other long-term assets that aren't even part of annual budgets.
 
I don't know the details of those, but I do know they could do some partial stuff, even if it's not as good.

You'll note the Key Bridge *did* have protective dolphins and other retrofittable safety features installed. It's just that even the most extensive collision protections cannot just. . . no-sell a ship of that sheer magnitude. There's just too much kinetic energy.

However, retrofitted collision protection features are both far less effective and far more expensive than collision protection features that are designed from the start with the bridge. This engineering paper mentions that the cost of retrofit and add-on collision protection is typically 25% to *over 100%* that of the original bridge, whereas the cost of bridge with designed collision protection is typically a 5% to 30% premium over an equivalent baseline bridge.

Keep in mind, this was a New Panamax class freighter -- while not the largest category of modern cargo vessel, it's bigger than a USN supercarrier, and nearly half again the tonnage. While it was a routine vessel on a routine voyage, it is nonetheless incredibly huge.
 
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However, retrofitted collision protection features are both far less effective and far more expensive than collision protection features that are designed from the start with the bridge. This engineering paper mentions that the cost of retrofit and add-on collision protection is typically 25% to *over 100%* that of the original bridge, whereas the cost of bridge with designed collision protection is typically a 5% to 30% premium over an equivalent baseline bridge.
Well I wonder how a brand new bridge is going to stack up against that... :cautious:
 

That’s an interesting coincidence. Which I am not sure it is.
It is .it's a RRF ship.
They never really leave port, and we have a lot of them.


Very important thread.

The harbor pilot used his cell phone to call the harbor master and tell them to close the bridge, within 30-60 seconds of the ship losing power and the loss of radio, and likely saved lives, as it was only 90 seconds after the harbor master ordered the bridge closed that the ship hit the pylon.

And some people in the comments make sense.
Like, the radios should be independent of the main power, via batteries
 

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