FDR dies in October 1940

Buba

A total creep
This is a wonderfully shitstorm scenario I sometimes ponder.
Personally I hope that President Garner demands the DNC bosses put him on the top of the ticket. If the sleazo kicks the bucket early enough in October I hope that it'd be possible.
 

sillygoose

Well-known member
This is a wonderfully shitstorm scenario I sometimes ponder.
Yes seemed like a good POD to create some interesting scenarios. Shitstorm might be putting it mildly.

Personally I hope that President Garner demands the DNC bosses put him on the top of the ticket. If the sleazo kicks the bucket early enough in October I hope that it'd be possible.
Seems like that would be possible:
Since the time of Andrew Jackson's run for the presidency in 1828, individual political parties have had the job of filling any vacancy on their national ticket, either that of their presidential or vice-presidential candidate. If one of their candidates vacates the ticket after they are nominated, either because of death or withdrawal, the party selects a replacement.

Both the Republican and the Democratic parties have rules in their bylaws governing how to fill the vacancy. The Party Chair calls a meeting of the National Committee, and the Committee members at the meeting vote to fill the vacancy on the ticket. A candidate must receive a majority of the votes to win the party's nod.

The same process would happen if the vacancy were to occur after the general election but before the Electoral College voting. If a vacancy should occur on the winning ticket, it would then be the party's responsibility to fill it and provide a candidate for whom their electors could vote.

I'm not sure Garner had the political sway to do that given how badly he lost the VP nomination vote:
Shortly after being nominated, Roosevelt informed his supporters that he favored Wallace for vice president. Wallace had a strong base of support among farmers, had been a loyal lieutenant in both domestic and foreign policy, and, unlike some other high-ranking New Dealers like Harry Hopkins, was in good health.[53] But many conservative Democratic party leaders disliked Wallace because of his egalitarian stances and former affiliation with the Republican Party.[54] Roosevelt convinced James F. Byrnes, Paul V. McNutt, and other contenders for the vice-presidential nomination to support Wallace, but conservative Democrats rallied around the candidacy of Speaker of the House William B. Bankhead of Alabama. Eventually, Wallace won the nomination by a wide margin.[55]

Question is whether FDR's preference would hold sway with the public after his death...and the VP nominee is not the president. Conservative Dems would lose their minds at having Wallace as the nominee, so if they don't appoint Garner or someone like that such as Bankhead then we very well could see Wilkie winning.

Garner might make the best option given the hurry before the election as he'd be the sitting president and that would head off a bunch of Wilkie's criticisms of things like the New Deal and Wallace's...eccentricities.
 

Buba

A total creep
Great find on how vacancies are filled!
Full agreement with your post - Wallace for VP with FDR the Undying in charge and Wallace for PP are two different things.
With Garner as POTUS he can milk patronage and "no changing horses midstream" for all its worth :)

If yes, then no "two term limit" ammendment?
 
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sillygoose

Well-known member
Great find on how vacancies are filled!
Thanks, I was surprised how easy it was to find an answer.

Full agreement with your post - Wallace for VP with FDR the Undying in charge and Wallace for PP are two different things.
With Garner as POTUS he can milk patronage and "no changing horses midstream" for all its worth :)
Indeed.

If yes, then no "two term limit" ammendment?
Probably not though the decorum factor of 2 terms then probably is maintained.

So what do you think would happen if Garner is president from October 1940-January 1945? I mean domestically and with the war. Also what if Wilkie manages to win?
 

Buba

A total creep
Only to 4.I.1945? No 2nd term for him?
Probably not though the decorum factor of 2 terms then probably is maintained.
Funnigly enough he's legit for two elected terms under the ammendment - he did (much) less than half a term of his "upgrade from VP" term.

I don't feel knowledgeable enough to venture much.

But I'd expect less "by hook AND crook" assistance to the UK, maybe a harder stance on Stalin's demands. Less putting of American lives in danger's way to provoke a war with Germany. Some commy spies sent dangling? But neverthless the USA at war sometime in '42 is inevitable ... or is it? Needs Japanese cooperation :)

Japanese-Americans in concentration camps might not happen - I do not know if he was chummy - unlike FDR had been - with the Californian Democrats who wanted to steal those people's property.
 
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Circle of Willis

Well-known member
IIRC Wallace was super pro-Soviet, to the extreme of comparing the gulags to the Tennessee Valley Authority and palling around with literal Soviet spy (and one of several infiltrators in FDR's administration) John Abt. In his defense it seems less like he was a willful Soviet lapdog and more that he was as naive as a sheltered young princess, but still - for the sake of everyone not named Joseph Stalin ITL I'd certainly hope that Willkie or even Garner beats him.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
James Garner would be president until January 1941 BTW.

John Nance Garner, not James Garner.

Garner might make the best option given the hurry before the election as he'd be the sitting president and that would head off a bunch of Wilkie's criticisms of things like the New Deal and Wallace's...eccentricities.

But Garner would also be considerably warier of helping the British relative to FDR, no? That could be a factor against choosing him.
 

sillygoose

Well-known member
John Nance Garner, not James Garner.
Right, misremembered his first name, but linked to the correct article.

But Garner would also be considerably warier of helping the British relative to FDR, no? That could be a factor against choosing him.
I'm not actually sure. It seemed like it was pretty popular to want to help the British for both parties, but with conservatives wanting to limit the aid. He might steal the GOP platform and give them $5 billion in credits to purchase from the US once they exhausted their cash, but leave it at that and not push for war. He was MUCH more interested in fighting Japan, so would probably provoke something there and either limit the US to a war there or at most do a Japan first strategy if Hitler still declares war (I think he wouldn't given Garner's fixation on Japan rather than Europe).

Only to 4.I.1945? No 2nd term for him?
I figure we should focus on the important period first, though I think by the standards of the day he'd be considered too old to be reelected.

Funnigly enough he's legit for two elected terms under the ammendment - he did (much) less than half a term of his "upgrade from VP" term.

I don't feel knowledgeable enough to venture much.

The Democratic elites who will choose the 1940 Democratic nominee in this TL?
They'd probably demand that for him to be considered he'd have to back some aid for the British, though it would be hard to deny him given he'd be president and have some pretty big leverage there to appear as the best option the Dems have to defeat Wilkie on such short notice.

But I'd expect less "by hook AND crook" assistance to the UK, maybe a harder stance on Stalin's demands. Less putting of American lives in danger's way to provoke a war with Germany. Some commy spies sent dangling? But neverthless the USA at war sometime in '42 is inevitable ... or is it? Needs Japanese cooperation :)
Sounds about right. No way he'd let the Soviets infiltrate his government like that since he was very anti-communist. So probably financial aid and cash/carry for the British (probably no L-L just a one time large grant of credits for purchases), no free help for the Soviets (cash and carry there too though), and fixation on Japan. Hoover probably is given free reign to go after the communists.

War with Japan would IMHO probably be inevitable given Garner's views on them.

Japanese-Americans in concentration camps might not happen - I do not know if he was chummy - unlike FDR had been - with the Californian Democrats who wanted to steal those people's property.
Garner was pretty racist against the Japanese from what I understand especially after the Pinay incident, so I would expect that remains the same. Plus a crackdown on labor in general.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Right, misremembered his first name, but linked to the correct article.


I'm not actually sure. It seemed like it was pretty popular to want to help the British for both parties, but with conservatives wanting to limit the aid. He might steal the GOP platform and give them $5 billion in credits to purchase from the US once they exhausted their cash, but leave it at that and not push for war. He was MUCH more interested in fighting Japan, so would probably provoke something there and either limit the US to a war there or at most do a Japan first strategy if Hitler still declares war (I think he wouldn't given Garner's fixation on Japan rather than Europe).


I figure we should focus on the important period first, though I think by the standards of the day he'd be considered too old to be reelected.


Sounds about right. No way he'd let the Soviets infiltrate his government like that since he was very anti-communist. So probably financial aid and cash/carry for the British (probably no L-L just a one time large grant of credits for purchases), no free help for the Soviets (cash and carry there too though), and fixation on Japan. Hoover probably is given free reign to go after the communists.

War with Japan would IMHO probably be inevitable given Garner's views on them.


Garner was pretty racist against the Japanese from what I understand especially after the Pinay incident, so I would expect that remains the same. Plus a crackdown on labor in general.

Was Garner's dislike of the Japanese due to him being a (racist?) white Southerner? Anyway, does the US actually provide Lend-Lease aid to the Soviet Union in this TL or only to Britain? And either way, without direct US participation in WWII, the Nazis almost certainly won't get completely crushed since something like D-Day would be impossible without direct US participation and without D-Day the Soviet Union might make a separate peace with the Nazis.
 

sillygoose

Well-known member
Was Garner's dislike of the Japanese due to him being a (racist?) white Southerner? Anyway, does the US actually provide Lend-Lease aid to the Soviet Union in this TL or only to Britain? And either way, without direct US participation in WWII, the Nazis almost certainly won't get completely crushed since something like D-Day would be impossible without direct US participation and without D-Day the Soviet Union might make a separate peace with the Nazis.
Part of it, also part of it was the Pinay Incident. Under Garner I don't see them providing L-L at all. Probably credits to Britain, but only after they ran out of money and a much lower overall amount than given via L-L.
Even if the US were to get involved in WW2 directly ITTL, which I think they will, it will be more against Japan. Either only or Japan first. FDR was a massive personality and without him it is really hard seeing the US fighting in Europe again.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Part of it, also part of it was the Pinay Incident. Under Garner I don't see them providing L-L at all. Probably credits to Britain, but only after they ran out of money and a much lower overall amount than given via L-L.
Even if the US were to get involved in WW2 directly ITTL, which I think they will, it will be more against Japan. Either only or Japan first. FDR was a massive personality and without him it is really hard seeing the US fighting in Europe again.

If so, then this would show just how crucial FDR's survival actually was. The US botched it after WWI by refusing to ratify a peacetime alliance treaty with Britain and France due to Wilson's stupidity, but FDR made up for it by his subsequent conduct in WWII. A different US President, and things would have turned out much more shitty for Europe, most likely. :(

Also, off-topic, but can you please respond to my last post here as well?

 

sillygoose

Well-known member
If so, then this would show just how crucial FDR's survival actually was. The US botched it after WWI by refusing to ratify a peacetime alliance treaty with Britain and France due to Wilson's stupidity, but FDR made up for it by his subsequent conduct in WWII. A different US President, and things would have turned out much more shitty for Europe, most likely. :(
Agree to disagree. The US couldn't have signed that treaty due to public desire not to be locked into another European war and not having a large enough standing military to matter anyway. Not only that, but the big mistake was not more strongly resisting the treaty that was utterly unsustainable and played a big role in causing the next war.
FDR did not make up for jack shit, he was in large part responsible for the war even happening, the subsequent deaths of 60 million people and the Holocaust (again remember the blockade and food shortages in Europe), and communism spreading all over Asia where Mao alone killed over 60 million people with his policies, more than died in all of WW2. FDR if anything was a disaster for humanity and set us on the course we are on today with a potential WW3 in the offing.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Agree to disagree. The US couldn't have signed that treaty due to public desire not to be locked into another European war and not having a large enough standing military to matter anyway. Not only that, but the big mistake was not more strongly resisting the treaty that was utterly unsustainable and played a big role in causing the next war.
FDR did not make up for jack shit, he was in large part responsible for the war even happening, the subsequent deaths of 60 million people and the Holocaust (again remember the blockade and food shortages in Europe), and communism spreading all over Asia where Mao alone killed over 60 million people with his policies, more than died in all of WW2. FDR if anything was a disaster for humanity and set us on the course we are on today with a potential WW3 in the offing.

The US did not ratify the Versailles Treaty in real life; it made separate peace deals with the former CP powers in 1921, IIRC.

And Yes, there is a possibility that public outrage could kill the idea of a peacetime Franco-Anglo-American alliance right after the end of World War I. AFAIK, the American public was less isolationist then than it would later become, but who knows, maybe it would have already been enough to put successful pressure on the US Congress to block this treaty? All they needed to do was to convince 1/3 of the US Congress in regards to this, after all. As for US military spending, maybe the logic would be that the US could quickly increase it if necessary just like it previously did in WWI and would subsequently do in WWII in real life.

Do you really think that Poland would have accepted Hitler's August 1939 ultimatum if it wasn't for FDR? Or that Chamberlain would have avoided making a Polish guarantee in early 1939 had it not been for FDR? I do agree with you, though, that it would have obviously been better had WWII not occurred or, alternatively, had France not fallen in 1940 (except for young French gentile males of military age, of course).
 

Atarlost

Well-known member
I don't see the Third Reich outlasting Goering by long. Everyone is going to disagree on which element of Greater Germany should be on top. Quisling's a lapdog, but his successor will say the Norse should be on top. Whoever succeeds Petain will think that the Franks are Charlemagne's true successors and thus should be on top. And so will everyone else outside Germany proper. Everything falls apart as soon as there's an internal power struggle over the succession. Nothing like the century plus and counting worldwide legacy of tyranny and ideological sabotage that Lenin created.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
I don't see the Third Reich outlasting Goering by long. Everyone is going to disagree on which element of Greater Germany should be on top. Quisling's a lapdog, but his successor will say the Norse should be on top. Whoever succeeds Petain will think that the Franks are Charlemagne's true successors and thus should be on top. And so will everyone else outside Germany proper. Everything falls apart as soon as there's an internal power struggle over the succession. Nothing like the century plus and counting worldwide legacy of tyranny and ideological sabotage that Lenin created.

 

sillygoose

Well-known member
The US did not ratify the Versailles Treaty in real life; it made separate peace deals with the former CP powers in 1921, IIRC.
Largely because treaty ratification, including an alliance with France and/or Britain required a 2/3rds majority which did not exist in Congress at the time. Also there was a solid block of Senators who hated the treaty and would oppose it to the death:

They weren't enough to stop it, but the Republicans wanted reservations added and enough Democrats were fiercely opposed to any amendment to the treaty. Too many irreconcilable differences prevented any passing vote. Wilson was also a problem, as he refused to sign on even with a 2/3rds majority unless they accepted the treaty as is without reservations.

For a defensive alliance that was a non-starter, since too many senators opposed a treaty that took away the power of Congress to vote for war, as such a treaty would have required. Among the public the Irish and German population, IIRC a majority when combined, fiercely opposed the treaty, so would create major problems if it somehow passed.

And Yes, there is a possibility that public outrage could kill the idea of a peacetime Franco-Anglo-American alliance right after the end of World War I. AFAIK, the American public was less isolationist then than it would later become, but who knows, maybe it would have already been enough to put successful pressure on the US Congress to block this treaty? All they needed to do was to convince 1/3 of the US Congress in regards to this, after all. As for US military spending, maybe the logic would be that the US could quickly increase it if necessary just like it previously did in WWI and would subsequently do in WWII in real life.
The Irish-German block would block the alliance. They represented a majority of the public at the time. Once Germany quit the US public had zero interest in another European war.

I think the logic was that the US military was supposed to be defensive in nature, that is of the US proper. The USN was big enough to prevent an invasion as it was, so why have a large military for foreign adventures? I think the public looked at a weak army as a means of preventing the government from being able to get the US into wars at the drop of a hat. A long build up would be necessary before anything happened, which was in line with the public being willing to access if there was actually a national interest in fighting on foreign soil.

Do you really think that Poland would have accepted Hitler's August 1939 ultimatum if it wasn't for FDR? Or that Chamberlain would have avoided making a Polish guarantee in early 1939 had it not been for FDR? I do agree with you, though, that it would have obviously been better had WWII not occurred or, alternatively, had France not fallen in 1940 (except for young French gentile males of military age, of course).
Its a convoluted situation. FDR was pushing Chamberlain to take a more aggressive stance or get no help from the US if any war did break out in Europe and there are allegations that secretly US diplomats were telling the Poles to fight Germany instead of compromising and they could expect support for big territorial gains from Germany as well as military and economic support for the war. Due to the British guarantee it pretty much guaranteed that the Polish government would fighting over compromise, because it guaranteed Allied military support and if they didn't have to compromise they weren't going to. Plus they had a naive belief that Stalin would honor the non-aggression pact of 1932. The way 1939 played out it seemed that the Polish government had zero reason to negotiate and if anything a war would only solidify their hold on power, reduce the unemployed population, and net them very valuable economic territory from Germany in the peace treaty and weaken the threat from the west permanently as well as enhance Polish prestige enough to make their goal of being the 'middle power' of east-central Europe possible:

The March 1939 guarantee to Poland was in large part due to placating FDR. There was also the domestic situation to worry about, but I think that would have been possible without the March guarantee. That particular guarantee effectively ensured Poland wouldn't negotiate, since they had confidence that the Allies would back them.
 

sillygoose

Well-known member
Does anyone have any idea how either a Garner or Wilkie presidency would have impacted the US domestic situation? Garner seems to have been sent on an anti-communist, anti-Japanese, and anti-labor set of policies that would have created a very interesting situation, while Wilkie was anti-New Deal and pro-business and had a major dust up with FDR over the TVA.
 

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