What If? California and Japan switch location?

Urabrask Revealed

Let them go.
Founder
On the 13th of June 2020, when the clock struck midnight in the UTC, California and Japan switched places like so:
PbSoDjK.png
Obviously, Japan is placed in such a way that there're no casualties in the USA. Similiary, there're no Tsunami or Earthquakes from the sudden switch of landmasses. Now, what would be the short- and long-term consequences of this switch, political, cultural, and general?
 

Brutus

Well-known member
Hetman
China would gain new colony after they invade california it and suborn the tech firms in silicon valley. Let's not forget all the information the firms have collected on everyone in the world. New farmland, etc. If china invades it would be worth the cost in material and manpower long-term for them.

As far Japan, I think it would shake them up culturally and economically short term.

As for America. New tech firms, movie studios, religious political movement, the electoral college has to be adjusted and house/senate needs to be adjust for the losses of some 39+ million people politically. Let's not forget about farmland, production, infrastructure, sea ports.

It wouldn't be a cakewalk that's for sure.
 

Urabrask Revealed

Let them go.
Founder
China would gain new colony after they invade california it and suborn the tech firms in silicon valley. Let's not forget all the information the firms have collected on everyone in the world. New farmland, etc. If china invades it would be worth the cost in material and manpower long-term for them.
Wouldn't it be a cause for war tho? China winning is a big If, especially considering even a victory result in long-term population-instability for the CCP. All the supporters of China and BLM in California after the switch might shut up real quick, once the army puts boots into the cities.
 

Bear Ribs

Well-known member
It seems unlikely to me that the US is just going to declare "Not our people anymore" and abandon California. Especially given there's already a pretty heft military presence there so California will start out with halfway decent defenses from day 1. I'd expect more to be on the way almost instantly.

California is going to have an immediate and massive humanitarian crisis because they just lost access to the Colorado river, ie. the only thing supplying water to the actually-in-a-desert southern megacities. They're going to need to evacuate much of the population. No other solution will do, that river supplies California with a cubic kilometer and a half of water a year. To match that with tankers we'd need an entire supertanker docking and emptying its tanks (Now full of water instead of oil of course) roughly every two and a half hours. There are not enough tankers in the world even if we converted every last oil tanker to a water tanker just to supply California, nor does California have a place to store the water the tankers could bring.

Eventually, desalination plants and the like could be built and likely California will become a place with a lot fewer lawns, but unless somebody has the habitat builder tool from Subnautica those plants are going to come online months to years too late. Gotta get the people out of CA fast.

On the continental side, the loss of the Sierra Nevadas is going to deeply change weather patterns across the whole US. Without the huge rainshadow those mountains throw up, the large desert areas across the west-midwest like Arizona, Utah, and Nevada are suddenly going to be getting rain from the Pacific. Japan's mountains will, of course, throw their own rainshadows but as they're not a continuous line of mountains like the Sierra Nevadas, a lot of rainclouds and going to get through between the islands. Those states are also going to suddenly have the benefit of a cubic kilometer and a half of water a year that won't be sucked up to water Los Angeles' lawns anymore. This could be a boost to their agriculture but the effects of turning a super-soaker on an area that was basically mostly sand dunes and alkali flats is not predictable. Many species are going to go extinct, others will migrate into the newly opened territories and expand.
 

Brutus

Well-known member
Hetman
Wouldn't it be a cause for war tho? China winning is a big If, especially considering even a victory result in long-term population-instability for the CCP. All the supporters of China and BLM in California after the switch might shut up real quick, once the army puts boots into the cities.

It would be war from day one. China would look at California and think Taiwan, who cares, California or bust.

As for the military in California, logistics would be a pain as Bear Ribs pointed out. China would have the logistics advantage and they have the numbers to pour into it if they get a foothold on the California coast or a few ports.

It would take a few days for America to get things together and push to California to secure it and get its citizens out and use as a spring board for WW3.

If California and Japan switch, a cause for war within a month.
 

Bear Ribs

Well-known member
China would have to be utterly, completely insane to try to invade California on day 1. California has 32 military bases, the naval base in San Diego alone has 50 ships, and they have scads of air force assets. While California couldn't fight off all of China by itself, it could easily make sure every Chinese Troop transport gets to enjoy the hospitality of Davy Jones. And that's before Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, US military assets that weren't in Japan, India, and any Japanese ships that didn't go with make their feelings on the matter known.

If anything the invasion is likely to be the other way around, as Californians, suffering from thirst, "temporarily" immigrate to China to ease the load on the state, and bring their thinking with them. China will have to endure being told their system isn't real communism, but with the help of Californians they can get a more liberal, superior communist government...
 

S'task

Renegade Philosopher
Administrator
Staff Member
Founder
There's no reason the US will give up claim on California, and while Japan's main islands have moved, Okinawa is still right where it was, thus there's still forward basing to move support into Cali if required and to stage humanitarian efforts out of (Okinawa was used extensively by the US military to stage early relief for the Sendai Earthquake relief efforts).

That said, people discussing water I have good news: this switch actually is taking place right as the normal Japanese rainy season begins, this means that much of California will see more rain in the next few months than it has ever. This will help alleviate, in the short term at least, the loss of the rivers and buy time for bringing online desalinization plants and moving population around.

Now, here's the thing, I don't see Japan deciding to politically integrate with the US in the short and even medium term. There's to many cultural, political, and legal differences between the two countries. However, the US and Japan already have a very good relationship, and I'd expect that relationship to only improve given the geographic proximity, believe it or not. Japan is already a country where citizens of the US and Japan can travel to freely for short term with just a passport, so aside from new connective roads needing to be built to integrate things (ones that would actually be complicated, considering that Japan is left side drive for... God knows why?), you'd probably see a lot of Americans and Japanese crossing the borders for vacations and tourism, leading to longer term close economic integration.

That said, we might well see the JSDF become integrated with the US Military much more than it already is with special joint commands, and the JSDF would definitely be integrated into NORAD and the other formerly just US/Canada joint military commands.

As to East Asia, suddenly China is going to be a lot more careful in how they handle activities in the regions. While S.Korea, Japan, and Taiwan were already in the US political and military sphere of influence, there's a difference between dealing with US... "allies" (*cough*vassals*cough*) and dealing with the US PROPER being there. North Korea; however, is now a wildcard that EVERYONE, including China, is going to be looking askance at. Remember, N. Korean missile tests have done overflies of Japan before, and since those were only threatening Japan the US, while it took them seriously, didn't see it as a personal threat to American citizens. Now though? The US has American citizens within nuclear range of a hostile foreign power that is NOT a fully rational actor. This will lead to considerable pressure from California to SOLVE the N.Korea issue definitively, though the exact HOW will depend on what kind of Californians remained in California and how it shifted politically due to its transference. This crisis could take a while to come to fruition, as the first few years will be spent mostly focused on the immediate problems and the longer term issues won't play out, and I suspect China will lean heavily on N.Korea to not rock the boat while America is in panic mode dealing with the immediate fallout, as when America is in panic mode it can act... irrationally and threatening the US with nuking California then is likely just to see the US lash out...
 

Buba

A total creep
IMO China does not invade US territory - if it tries it gets a nuke to the face. Hence no need to discuss such a scenario.
Also - Operation Sea Lion territory.

Short term I see the loss of Colorado River water as devastating. In medium and long term, however, increased rainfall will (should?) make up for it. BUT there is no infrastructure to handle it! This needs to get built.
So in the short term LA probably would have to be abandoned. Probably - as maybe cutting off water from agriculture and watering lawns/golf courses could provide enough for domestic use.

Californian agriculture will be devastated anyway, due to loss of markets and climate of change. I agree that wildlife also affected.

Japanese jails will overflow with US and Latino miscreants moving in to set up business. Japanese Police shocked to have people shoot at it.
Won't there be an ecological and humanitarian disaster due to aridity? Japan has more people than California ... and Shokaku and Kyushu are now desert ...
 

Bear Ribs

Well-known member
Hmm, if the rainy season's about to hit... and Death Valley is no longer in the Sierra Nevada's rainshadow... it could fill up with rain water flowing off the Sierra Nevada's newly ocean-facing sides, and become a vital reservoir.

On the other hand, being lower than sea level and close to the border, it might fill with seawater either through infiltration or just because it's too low at the border and the ocean can flow in, I don't know enough geology/geography to be sure.
 

Buba

A total creep
I'd venture that the fate of the Death Valley is at the bottom of the "least concern" list ...
:p
 

Urabrask Revealed

Let them go.
Founder
Japanese jails will overflow with US and Latino miscreants moving in to set up business. Japanese Police shocked to have people shoot at it.
Oh yeah, I can't really see the japanese people becoming any more tolerant of foreigners once they get a taste of "Mexican friendship". Might escalate to the point where police and japanese citizens are going to turn a blind eye to the yakuza removing wannabe-rival syndicates permanently from Japan. Hell, some might even supply heavier stuff to the Yakuza under the deal of "No targeting locals".
 

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
Sotnik
It looks like Japan by land area is 93% the size of California but the island chain (Home Islands including Hokkaido) are longer in length then California so going from the map I'm happily assuming bits of Western Oregon and maybe Washington have ended up with California as well on the other side of the Ocean, so that's nice! 😁

The US and Japanese military can probably establish proper borders until things get sorted out since Japan is a sovereign country and the main problem would be Mexicans trying to move in as opposed to Americans. I don't think Japan has much appetite for immigration now, so I doubt it'd magically increase in this scenario. Worse comes to worse, you just deport the obvious Latinos who are obviously not Japanese via buses or whatever. Japan is a sovereign country, whiny liberals can pound sand.

The Mexican government will be more interested in opening up the Japanese economy to Mexican labor and opening up Mexico to direct Japanese investment. Given that persuasion, Mexico will be encouraged to secure its border situation. Plus Japan has its own pretty well established and nationalist based criminal organizations so... the Cartels trying to wedge themselves into positions of power in the Japanese economy or underworld seems highly unlikely.

In fact after all of the hubbub of the initial displacement, there'd likely be an economic revitalization (if things don't boringly collapse) by having Japan literally in the West Coast now for the United States, Mexico, Canada and even Latin America and countries like Peru and Ecuador and Brazil that have large Japanese populations and can forge even stronger relations now. Also a lot more shipping for America might be coming through Japanese ports for the time being (though I guess Seattle or whatever might need a port expansion).

Meanwhile having California floating about in the Northwest Pacific, it has a fraction of the population of Japan but is still yuge in economy and military presence and everything. There'd likely be a strong economic depression in California... simply because California is dependent on a lot of interstate trade and shipping things across a border is a fair bit easier then shipping it across... the entire Pacific Ocean. This might also require a revising of the Jones Act (at least for a time and in regards to California) as well as sorting out the aforementioned water issues among many other things. Thankfully California has two huge harbors which once served the entire United States from the West Coast so importing stuff shouldn't be a problem volume wise. Eventually though CommieCalifornia should be doing betterer economically though I think there might be some long term wage depression and/or price inflation just for being way out there until California is more integrated with the Far Eastern markets.

This would also reinforce and strengthen the links of the American economy to not just Japan (obviously) but also South Korea and thus Taiwan, the Philippines, Australia, Vietnam, Indonesia etc etc etc. This decades long discussion of a pivot to the Pacific would be a reality of necessity. Chinese aggression in the South China Sea would likely be seen as a far more a security threat to the United States now. There'd be stronger urging to pushback on the South China Sea, on the Senkakus and forging stronger ties with the now far closer neighbors of California in this part of the world.
 

Buba

A total creep
It looks like Japan by land area is 93% the size of California but the island chain (Home Islands including Hokkaido) are longer in length then California
Oh, let us leave Hokkaido "over there" :)
I can't really see the japanese people becoming any more tolerant of foreigners
I expect prejudice to soar.
A Japanese sentiment of "Latino or Black 100%=criminal" is highly likely. Alongside "White 90%=criminal".
 
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Val the Moofia Boss

Well-known member
California is screwed in the short turn as it promptly falls into famine and drought, as it cannot grow enough food to feed itself, and it has to siphon water from other territories.

If Los Angeles were to become its own state, it would have a major problem because it doesn't have any of its own water. It's dependent on water being funneled from the Central Valley, which is why we are constantly on drought watch in Central Valley. The counties in Central Valley, like Kern County, can't use any of its own water. Kern County has to buy water from Northern California for its crops while the Kern river - which has more than enough water for Kern County - is piped off for LA. Kern county is like a vassal/imperial province beholden to LA. Bullocks! If they were separate countries, this would result in war.

As islands, California wouldn't have any neighbors, so no war over water. It would take months to build new water pipelines, but by then a large portion of the populace will have long since died.

However, in the long term being placed in a tropical climate where there is a lot of rain and snow will eventually rejuvenate California, turning it from a desert into a more green, lively land. Lakes will refill quickly, and there won't be any water problems.

Another thing too is that California's economy completely collapses. Yeah, on paper California by itself has one of the highest GDPs in the world, but again it's completely dependent on imports via trade with other states.

The Chinese won't invade California. California as an island is worthless. The drought would make it too difficult to sustain any supply chains or invasion. And there are a LOT of people with guns. California used to be a hard republican state. Someone did the math: if it wasn't for the illegal immigrants voting, Donald Trump would have won California. That is how red California is. If you step out of the megacities like Los Angeles or San Francisco, you step into a normal country. And people have guns. Lots of guns. Does China think trying to invade Japan would be difficult? Well, Japan hardly has civilian gun ownership.

That said, unlike Japan, California doesn't really have anywhere near the same amount of military build up as Japan, so the Chinese CAN invade. It's just that their invasion isn't going to last long, let alone be successful.


As for Japan, they'll be fine in the short term, but they're screwed in the long term. They just traded their tropical climate for a desert. What farming they have will fail in a few years and they will have to switch to growing oranges and other low water crops. Japan's forests will eventually get very dry and burn in wildfires. The land will slowly become a desert.

The United States' political elites will freak out, as now they have a very ethnically homogenous population right on their doorstep. If they assimilate Japan, congratulations! You've now got a state as red as Texas! Good luck trying to get illegal immigration to work this time around! And if you don't assimilate Japan, well then...
 

Bassoe

Well-known member
they're not invading, they're providing humanitarian relief.

and i'm even sure if that's a joke or not.
Considering how spectacularly california would collapse without freshwater, they might legitimately have an argument there if they can start shipping water to the californians (specifically, those californians backing their occupation) before the US can.
 

Buba

A total creep
As Death Valley i.e. a depression had been mentioned ...
Salton Sink, the depression in south California used for irrigated agriculture, includes a bit of Mexico (town of Mexicali?). Hence at the ISOT it will be flooded. Even if the initial depth of the access to the ocean is small - 2 metres or so - this is loose soil and will be deepened immediatelly.
Hence there will be some loss of life.
On the plus side lesser calls for water as that agriculture will be under 200 metres of seawater.
 

Val the Moofia Boss

Well-known member
On the topic of military action, I can see China sending their equivalent of diver seal teams, or secret agents on fishing boats, across the channel. Or sending flying drones over. The newly displaced California isn't prepared to screen against a hostile enemy only a few miles across the water. So the Chinese might be able to get into Air Force Bases and take pictures or record videos of stuff.
 

Bear Ribs

Well-known member
Considering how spectacularly california would collapse without freshwater, they might legitimately have an argument there if they can start shipping water to the californians (specifically, those californians backing their occupation) before the US can.
I can't see China remotely matching the ludicrous flow California takes from the Colorado River. A cubic kilometer and a half of water a year, a maxed-out supertanker every two and a half hours.

The United States' political elites will freak out, as now they have a very ethnically homogenous population right on their doorstep. If they assimilate Japan, congratulations! You've now got a state as red as Texas! Good luck trying to get illegal immigration to work this time around! And if you don't assimilate Japan, well then...
And Japan has a population of 125 million or so, so they literally would have over a quarter of the US population if they did join the States, a ludicrous voting block. If you thought California's dominant numbers were bad wait until you see a single state with nearly as many votes as were cast in the entire 2020 election.

Nobody will want to see that happen so I think that unless there's a strong push from Japan itself... unlikely... they'll stay a neighboring nation, albeit one with much stronger ties to the US than before.
 

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