Three take aways from the debate.
1. Trump did better than the first.
2. Biden didn't give him the win he needed.
3. The immigrant kids sound byte is gonna linger and really not help him with suburban women. An area he needed to make up ground in.
Transition from oil is going to hurt joe too, but the fracking support is going to limit that. The question was about pollution and Trump talked about how much money they are making. I am betting no one here lives close to an oil refinery. I wouldn't want to or a coal power plant.
I can't wait for my military delivered covid vaccine in the next couple weeks. I am sure that will happen.
I agree that Trump did better than his last debate. He really took a page (and by that, I mean a single page) out of Pence's book of remaining calm, collected, and answering with some data points of his own. And while this was not the knock-out-punch Trump's fans might have been hoping for, this debate did several things.
- It re-asserted Trump's ability to command the debate stage. Trump is NOT good at debating, but he is good at persuading. He refused to fall into the trap that he did in the first debate, which will restore some of the confidence he had lost during the first debate.
- Just as important, if not more so, is the fact that Trump was aiming to damage Biden's in-party support. While a lot of polling shows Biden ahead, in some cases, eight to ten points ahead in battleground states (some are not battleground; see Texas), the fact is that this is impart based on the assumption of a phone call asking "who are you going to vote for" and similar questions. In-party support is needed. As an example, in 2016, 48% of the party were interested in Clinton herself. 50% just hated Trump. To get the sort of numbers where the Dems just flood the Republicans, you actually need closer to 60-70% internal party support for the candidate. Obama had 68% in 2008 and 72% in 2012. Clinton had 48%. Biden has 36% now. The vast majority of his party just hates Trump. Meanwhile...Trump? He had 41% of the party who were interested in him as a candidate in 2016. This year, he has 71%. And it was higher in June (76%). In other words, people are not interested in Biden himself. They just don't like Trump. You can't win with that sort of popularity. You want at least 60%. Trump is enjoying internal party support that is on par with Obama in 2012. And that's after he LOST ground from June.
- That sound byte won't really work out so well. It's not great optically, but pro-immigration is at an all-time low. A lot of that was settled by the Wall debate in 2016. That was dealt a fatal blow when the pandemic started. You can't go around preaching about how we all need to close down our bars, gyms, and schools but then preach how countless immigrants can cross the border and collect government cash and take up houses. That shit DOES NOT SELL.
In regards to fracking, while there is environmental concern in the public eye...to be honest, it's not going to move the needle too much. Except, and this is where Trump trapped Biden; is in regards to states like Pennsylvania, which has opened large new sectors in fracking. And Biden admitting that he intended to ban fracking would have cost him that important swing state. If he however, denied he would ban fracking, then Biden would cost himself in-party support with the Green voters. Biden ended up denying it, then talking about how he wanted to move away from fracking and toward renewables. And while that might sound good, the result is that Biden may have very well of alienated BOTH of those groups. Fracking voters in Pennsylvania because they don't trust Biden (but they can trust Trump) and Greens because he didn't immediately agree to ban fracking.
Honestly, Trump was weakest on Healthcare. He and the Republicans dropped the ball in 2016. And he didn't really have any good answers on how he fucked that up. Because he and the Republicans did. He also made a few mistakes with the Evangelical crowd in the summer (supposedly), but I suspect his support for the new SCOTUS has allowed him to re-coop much in the way of the religious crowd. She is exactly the sort of people Pro-Lifers and Evangelicals wanted. Nor can the Democrats go too hard against her, because doing so would possibly turn off women voters AND Catholics/Hispanics, who agree with her social stances (or would seem to).
Overall, from what I see, Trump's in-party popularity has skyrocketed. Meanwhile, Biden has not yet reached the popularity level of freaking Hillary Clinton, who utterly failed to draw in support from the Democratic voting machine in 2016. If Trump RETAINS the swing voter numbers he did in 2016 and adds on a more energized voting base, he may just steamroll Biden. If the numbers are bad enough, you might (MIGHT) see Minnesota flip red. That's in addition to Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
If you were to look at RCP's map, you'd see the following are battlegrounds; Pennsylvania, Iowa, Florida, Wisconsin, Texas, Nevada, North Carolina, Maine CD 2, Arizona, Minnesota, Ohio, Nebraska CD2, and Georgia. I think several of those states are distractions. Georgia? Texas? Really, you think either of those are going to go blue this election? Really now? Really?
No, I think is happening is that the focus on those states makes the fight look more even than it actually is. I think the real battleground states are actually just five; Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Yes, I think Michigan is up for grabs. I think polling in Michigan is outright criminal. A state that the Democrats lost in 2016 is supposedly up with Biden between 7 and 12 points? Pull the other one. Even after weeks of their Democrat Governor violating the constitution and only allowing her husband to do business? No, I think Michigan is a battleground state. Even if Trump has a narrow lead.
But go to RCP
2020 Electoral College Map
www.realclearpolitics.com
Switch Nevada to blue. Then switch Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio to red. Notice something? Instead of it looking like Trump needs to win almost a dozen swing states, he instead only needs to win a handful of states, including either Florida or Pennsylvania.
Of the five swing states I've identified, Trump won four of them in 2016. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Florida. Trump is winning both in strategy and in-party support. Possibly even with swing voters.
