Alternate History Austria-Hungary immediately annexes Bosnia

[Aldarion]

I just remembered that Russia and some other powers had actually advised Austrian administration to annex Bosnia right away - the iron is struck while it is still hot, after all. So what would have happened if Austrians had listened? Will this have prevented World War I., and maybe even saved the Monarchy?

 

[Buba]

Do you mean in 1878?

 

[Aldarion]

Do you mean in 1878?

Yes. Basically, occupation and annexation happen concurrently.

 

[PsihoKekec]

Not reopening the wounds thirty years later will perhaps result in idiots of the Black Hand not seeking war with AH, right after the Balkan Wars.

 

[Buba]

I don't think it would really change anything.
True that there would be less bad blood between Sankt Peterburg and Vienna (there were bucketfulls of it anyway, IMO going back to FJ's stance during the Crimean War), but rivalry over influence in the Balkans remains unchanged.
IMO the Black Hand were riding a wave of "Serb stronk" sentiment after the 1st and 2nd Balkan Wars.
As much as I do not belong in the "WWII was inevitable" camp, all the OTL triggers remain.

 

[sillygoose]

Bosnian Crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Treaty of Berlin allowed for sole Austrian occupation of Bosnia-Herzegovina, but did not specify a final disposition of the provinces. This omission was addressed in the Three Emperors' League treaty of 1881, where both Germany and Russia endorsed Austria's right to annex Bosnia-Herzegovina.[15]

Sounds like if Austria just went ahead and did it they'd largely have avoided issues, but the problem was the Hungarians:

Triple Alliance (1882) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

In 1876, Russia offered to partition the Balkans, but the Hungarian statesman Gyula Andrássy declined because Austria-Hungary was already a "saturated" state and could not cope with additional territories.[9]

The Hungarian PM had to resign to get the Hungarian Parliament to even agree to the occupation of Bosnia IOTL:

Kalman Tisza

Kálmán Tisza de Borosjenő was the Hungarian prime minister between 1875 and 1890. He is credited for the formation of a consolidated Magyar government, the foundation of the new Liberal Party (1875) and major economic reforms that would both save and eventually lead to a government with popular...

prabook.com

In 1877 be resigned on the discussion of the question of the Composition (Ausgleich), but he returned to office on his own terms. The same thing happened the following year, when his brief resignation compelled the Magyar Diet to agree to the occupation of Bosnia.

So it sounds like internal politics (aka Magyar obstinacy), a common refrain in A-H history after 1867, was what prevented the occupation more than lack of desire or support for them doing so. France and Britain might not like it, same with the Ottomans, but there is little anyone could do and it would blow over. Russia would probably have some things to say about that, but having gained Bessarabia in the treaty and the current Czar later favoring A-H doing that things would probably be fine there.

Ultimately it is a question of how to get the Magyar Diet to go along. Given that it took a resignation to strong arm them into going along with just the occupation I'm not sure the political situation was favorable to annexation, especially so soon after the original Ausgleich was set up and the Hungarian PM had already pulled his resignation stunt over the Ausgleich the year before.
AFAIK the Hungarians would have to assent to the annexation to make it happen; politically that was worked out by 1908, but in 1878 the Maygars were too worried about having diluted influence in an empire they didn't want to even be a part of.

Edit:
More info-

Gyula Andrássy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This occupation was most unpopular in Hungary, both for financial reasons and because of the strong philo-Turk sentiments of the Magyars.

On 28 September 1878 the Finance Minister, Koloman von Zell, threatened to resign if the army, behind which stood the Archduke Albert, were allowed to advance to Salonika. In the session of the Hungarian Parliament of 5 November 1878 the Opposition proposed that the Foreign Minister should be impeached for violating the constitution by his policy during the Near East Crisis and by the occupation of Bosnia-Herzegovina. The motion was lost by 179 to 95. By the Opposition rank and file the gravest accusations were raised against Andrassy.[3]

I'm rather surprised the Magyars were pro-Turkish given the history of Turkey in Hungary.

On 10 October 1878 the French diplomat Melchior de Vogüé described the situation as follows:

Particularly in Hungary the dissatisfaction caused by this "adventure" has reached the gravest proportions, prompted by that strong conservative instinct which animates the Magyar race and is the secret of its destinies. This vigorous and exclusive instinct explains the historical phenomenon of an isolated group, small in numbers yet dominating a country inhabited by a majority of peoples of different races and conflicting aspirations, and playing a role in European affairs out of all proportions to its numerical importance or intellectual culture. This instinct is to-day awakened and gives warning that it feels the occupation of Bosnia-Herzegovina to be a menace which, by introducing fresh Slav elements into the Hungarian political organism and providing a wider field and further recruitment of the Croat opposition, would upset the unstable equilibrium in which the Magyar domination is poised.[4]

Andrássy felt constrained to bow before the storm, and he placed his resignation in the emperor's hands (8 October 1879). The day before his retirement he signed the offensive-defensive alliance with Germany, which placed the foreign relations of Austria-Hungary once more on a stable footing.

 

[PsihoKekec]

I'm rather surprised the Magyars were pro-Turkish given the history of Turkey in Hungary.

They were very much disliking Austrians and Russians, with Turkey being the enemy of both. Memory of 1848/49 was still fresh, while memories of Turkish depredations were much more distant.