American Political Policy Discussion Thread

Why should they try when getting off Welfare involves making a single step class jump because of how the Welfare laws are stuctured?

Look, the studies on Unemployed people are pretty staggeringly bad. It's been a while since I looked it up, but it had worse depression rates and general poor health rates above any and all professions.

Getting out and doing something, anything, that matters is just good for people. But, Welfare?

There are always going to be people who just won't work if they don't have to. It doesn't matter how much money they'll make. It doesn't matter what the issues that it'll solve, or how it will help them. They're just going to sit there.
 
Yes, because lottery winners are the same as a whole society on UBI.

As it was said in the USSR, 'They pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work.'
They're a perfect example of Americans being given enough money by the government that they don't have to work. Certainly better than the zero proof you've managed to provide.
 
Can we please run this social experiment in a smaller level first to see the results before we make massive nationwide policy changes?
I would be in favor of that, certainly.

Personally, I'm of the opinion that it's not time for UBI, not yet. However, as automation continues, as the job market continues to shrink and real wages decrease (Trends we've been seeing steadily happen since the 70s), we're eventually either going to have to do something similar or society's going to move towards the idea that the majority of humanity has no reason to keep existing, and that can lead to some very dark places.
 
They're a perfect example of Americans being given enough money by the government that they don't have to work. Certainly better than the zero proof you've managed to provide.

The failure of the USSR, Argentina, Cuba, Communist Vietnam, the Chinese economy before they loosened things up, North Korea, the Pilgrims failed harvest(s) when they tried socialism back when they first arrived in America, and the fall of the bloody western Roman empire.

That's my proof.
 
I would be in favor of that, certainly.

Personally, I'm of the opinion that it's not time for UBI, not yet. However, as automation continues, as the job market continues to shrink and real wages decrease (Trends we've been seeing steadily happen since the 70s), we're eventually either going to have to do something similar or society's going to move towards the idea that the majority of humanity has no reason to keep existing, and that can lead to some very dark places.
What I'm interested in seeing is what effect the "Great Resignation" is going to have on that, as people attempt to find better opportunities outside of the traditional corporate "nine to five".
 
What I'm interested in seeing is what effect the "Great Resignation" is going to have on that, as people attempt to find better opportunities outside of the traditional corporate "nine to five".

Structurally thinking I think most of what the 'great resignation' is, is ultimently that the baby boomers start retiring in mass next year, and that is a global thing.

America unlike most generations is lucky enough to have a replacement generation in the wings but their a generation screwed over by college debt, experienced the great recession and is in general practically fucking seething with quiet mistreatment induced rage.

AKA the millenials, the new managerial class the Xer's fucking loath the office because they spent most of their lives being fucked over there and now that they are going to be in charge.

(And they will be in charge because the boomers are retiring/dying out)

it is doubtful that their going to keep the same corperate culture. So I expect more telecomunication the trade off will probally be a slight pay cut for the people who do it but since working from home means you dont have to pay as much for gas, can eat at home and have less costs in general I see more and more people taking that deal.
 
Look, the studies on Unemployed people are pretty staggeringly bad. It's been a while since I looked it up, but it had worse depression rates and general poor health rates above any and all professions.
Again, give them Welfare that doesn't involve treading water.

EDIT: You technically could do that with current programs, it'd just involve a shitton more expense on bureaucracy, which I don't think any of us consider a positive.
 
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Again, give them Welfare that doesn't involve treading water.

...... Feeling like you've done nothing of value, means for many? That they have no value.

Look, I spent a year unemployed. I never ran out of money. But, sitting there, doing nothing, day after day after day? It was the most depressing period in my life. I'd have prefered working as a garbo, or in sewers towards the end, but those jobs weren't avalable.

I still had savings at the end of it.
 
People are not the 'value' of thier 'labor', nor is 'work for the sake of work' something people are ok with much anymore.

People's labor needs to be compensated by living wages, not minimum wage or fixed wages, and raises need to keep up with inflation, instead of just expecting people to live paycheck to paycheck for a crap service job.

And this is before we even get into how automation and the internet have completely upended a lot of the old theories about labor and life balance.

The idea the people need to be working crap jobs they are unhappy with, just so the have a job and are 'of value' due to their 'labor', is rather a big part of what happens in most commie places and their theories of life. Of course the corpo's love the idea too, because it lets them pay shit wages and accept high turnover as a result, so no one gets their 30 years and pension.
 
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Nope, you aren't.
...Ok, question, let's say that, at some point, Computers can do literally everything we today consider "essential", Sewers? Computers. Trash Stuff? Computers. Farms? Computers. Mining? Computers. Construction? Computers. The only work humans can usefully do is stuff that requires creativity.

What is your response to this theoretical situation?
 
People are not the 'value' of thier 'labor', not is 'work for the sake of work' something people are ok with much anymore.

Peoples labor needs to be compensated by living wages, not minimum wage or fixed wages, and raises need to keep up with inflation, instead of just expecting people to live paycheck to paycheck for a crap service job.

And this is before we even get into how automation and the internet have completely upended a lot of the old theories about labor and life balance.

The idea the people need to be working crap jobs they are unhappy with, just so the have a job and are 'of value' due to thier 'labor', is rather a big part of what happens in most commie places and their theories of life. Of course the corpo's love the idea too, because it lets them pay shit wages and accept high turnover as a result, so no one gets thier 30 years and pension.

It's not about the money. It's about doing something with a bit of meaning. Even a job where you stock shelves, you can at least see that you're doing something real. Not much, but still, you're fixing a least that little bit of the World.

But, that feeling is more delicate than is seems. Shit pay for a shit job, sure, but you can then take that money and help your family, and it can mean something then, even if the job itself doesn't, and you need multiple members working to get by.

Welfare says something different. You just need to exist. Not help, not care, not be useful, not effective, not capable or strong or smart. In fact, being any of those things is somewhat of a disadvantage to the Welfare recipiant.


What it comes down to is people. Money doesn't really matter, beyond the basics. People do.



...Ok, question, let's say that, at some point, Computers can do literally everything we today consider "essential", Sewers? Computers. Trash Stuff? Computers. Farms? Computers. Mining? Computers. Construction? Computers. The only work humans can usefully do is stuff that requires creativity.

What is your response to this theoretical situation?

There'll still be overseers, matenance, and the other end, actors, dancers, carers, cooks, craftsmen, and a thousand others. They'll be doing everything from service, to hand made stuff, all at a massive premium.

That's if we can ever get to the full automation future, of course.
 
For me, putting in effort and getting no further is doing nothing of value.

Maybe I'm weird like that and other people just need to be doing literally anything.
No, this is common to most humans. That's why welfare cliffs are a problem, they put obstacles in the way of people doing things and prevent us from doing work we want to. It's also why actual welfare without cliffs isn't, it's fairly well established that even if people have money they won't stop actually making things and trying to create value unless the system actively impedes it.

The failure of the USSR, Argentina, Cuba, Communist Vietnam, the Chinese economy before they loosened things up, North Korea, the Pilgrims failed harvest(s) when they tried socialism back when they first arrived in America, and the fall of the bloody western Roman empire.

That's my proof.
USSR: Didn't have UBI.
Argentina: Didn't have UBI.
Cuba: Has never had UBI.
Communist Vietnam: Didn't have UBI.
China: Has never had UBI (Except for Capitalist Hong Kong before the Communists shut it down).
North Korea: Has never had UBI.
Pilgrims: Didn't have UBI, also failed harvests because they first tried to grow crops that couldn't survive (they were blown off-course by 500 miles and their equipment and seeds were inappropriate for the climate), they were fine once they got crops from the Indians.
Rome: Didn't have UBI, at closest there was a grain dole allowing the poor to still eat. Do you also think soup kitchens are a dire threat as well?

Try harder for your "proof."

If you want to play the socialism card you've come to the wrong thread, communists hate UBI. The USSR was strongly against it, their policy was "He who does not work does not eat" and they used their anti-UBI stance to justify horrifying forced labor camps. China is the same way and in fact had UBI tried in exactly one place, Capitalist Hong Kong had a brief program, yeah UBI got tried in the single part of China that was economically functional. Naturally, the communists hated it.

However UBI has been done successfully in a few trial runs:

Alaska's had a 2000 dollar-per-citizen payments since the early 80s with great success. Studies show that the money absolutely doesn't make people quit working, in fact, it raised Alaska's part-time employment by 17%.

Japanese Billionaire Maezawa Otoshidama tried a trial run of giving free money to random Japanese citizens. Not only did they not quit working, they were almost four times as likely to start their own businesses, three times as likely to want to marry, and well over twice as likely to want to study abroad. Happiness was rated at 70% higher.

Canada did a trial run in Dauphin, Manitoba, where for four years, everybody got a Basic Income Guarantee. People did not quit working, but doctor visits dropped, health improved, and the rate of kids completing high school skyrocketed.

Finland ran a trial program to see if having free money increased employment or decreased it. In fact, employment numbers in aggregate weren't affected either way, however the recipients started their own businesses and generally their physical health and well-being improved. This one is tricky because they specifically selected only the unemployed and that likely introduced several confounding factors compared to a truly random selection.

Kenya tried a UBI experiment and the results were surprising, people not only didn't quit working, but ninety percent of them used their UBI to either start up their own businesses or improve an existing one they had. It caused a major economic boom even though Kenya was suffering from severe drought at the time.

Overall the evidence from actual experiments is pretty clear, no UBI has ever caused people to quit working, most have increased employment and all of them have improved the health and happiness of the people involved. UBI does have a large number of unexpected knock-on effects, however, and often what people do with the money is completely unexpected, so more experiments are required.

"People just stop working" however, is complete balderdash that has been disproven over and over again, and is mostly the domain of dedicated communists attached to the labor theory of value. It's also because UBI is strongly correlated with people starting up their own small businesses, something that's anathema to authoritarian regimes that prefer to maintain their own control rather than let the peasants be allowed to make their own decisions.
 
There'll still be overseers, matenance
More Computers. If it doesn't require creativity it's computers.

actors, dancers, carers, cooks,
How many people do you think can actually be good enough at this to make a living off it? Especially with "cooks" being "cooks for the ultra wealthy who make stuff up", if it's route learning stuff... well, Computers.
craftsmen
Who can do original work sure... everyone else? Computers.
Does it need creativity? No? Computers.
hand made stuff
I have never actually seen anyone buying something "because it's handmade" when there was a cheaper alternative. Handmade by specific person who I like, yes, but how many people exactly do you expect to be able to get that sort of following?
That's if we can ever get to the full automation future, of course.
Cashiers are already getting automated out. Wonder what the next minimum wage job to get automated away will be.
 
It's not about the money. It's about doing something with a bit of meaning. Even a job where you stock shelves, you can at least see that you're doing something real. Not much, but still, you're fixing a least that little bit of the World.

But, that feeling is more delicate than is seems. Shit pay for a shit job, sure, but you can then take that money and help your family, and it can mean something then, even if the job itself doesn't, and you need multiple members working to get by.

Welfare says something different. You just need to exist. Not help, not care, not be useful, not effective, not capable or strong or smart. In fact, being any of those things is somewhat of a disadvantage to the Welfare recipiant.


What it comes down to is people. Money doesn't really matter, beyond the basics. People do.
I do not know how you ca say it's 'not about the money', when it very much is for most people, most of the time.

Welfare, in the US, is meant to help people who have hit hard times, get out of hard times, in theory. In reality it's created a Welfare trap that is very difficult to get out of, and can trap families for generations. Yet, we still need Welfare, food stamps, and WIC, because it does keep people in poverty from going hungry.

UBI would streamline all of the different forms of Welfare in the US down to one lump payment with no strings attached, which could mean all the different for a lot of people who want to get out of poverty, but cannot get passed the Welfare Trap/Cliff.

People will still work with Welfare rolled into UBI, because UBI does not pay for anything beyond the basics, and does put more money in the pockets of people, and the businesses they purchase stuff from. People will work, because they want more than just the 'basics'.
No, this is common to most humans. That's why welfare cliffs are a problem, they put obstacles in the way of people doing things and prevent us from doing work we want to. It's also why actual welfare without cliffs isn't, it's fairly well established that even if people have money they won't stop actually making things and trying to create value unless the system actively impedes it.


USSR: Didn't have UBI.
Argentina: Didn't have UBI.
Cuba: Has never had UBI.
Communist Vietnam: Didn't have UBI.
China: Has never had UBI (Except for Capitalist Hong Kong before the Communists shut it down).
North Korea: Has never had UBI.
Pilgrims: Didn't have UBI, also failed harvests because they first tried to grow crops that couldn't survive (they were blown off-course by 500 miles and their equipment and seeds were inappropriate for the climate), they were fine once they got crops from the Indians.
Rome: Didn't have UBI, at closest there was a grain dole allowing the poor to still eat. Do you also think soup kitchens are a dire threat as well?

Try harder for your "proof."

If you want to play the socialism card you've come to the wrong thread, communists hate UBI. The USSR was strongly against it, their policy was "He who does not work does not eat" and they used their anti-UBI stance to justify horrifying forced labor camps. China is the same way and in fact had UBI tried in exactly one place, Capitalist Hong Kong had a brief program, yeah UBI got tried in the single part of China that was economically functional. Naturally, the communists hated it.

However UBI has been done successfully in a few trial runs:

Alaska's had a 2000 dollar-per-citizen payments since the early 80s with great success. Studies show that the money absolutely doesn't make people quit working, in fact, it raised Alaska's part-time employment by 17%.

Japanese Billionaire Maezawa Otoshidama tried a trial run of giving free money to random Japanese citizens. Not only did they not quit working, they were almost four times as likely to start their own businesses, three times as likely to want to marry, and well over twice as likely to want to study abroad. Happiness was rated at 70% higher.

Canada did a trial run in Dauphin, Manitoba, where for four years, everybody got a Basic Income Guarantee. People did not quit working, but doctor visits dropped, health improved, and the rate of kids completing high school skyrocketed.

Finland ran a trial program to see if having free money increased employment or decreased it. In fact, employment numbers in aggregate weren't affected either way, however the recipients started their own businesses and generally their physical health and well-being improved. This one is tricky because they specifically selected only the unemployed and that likely introduced several confounding factors compared to a truly random selection.

Kenya tried a UBI experiment and the results were surprising, people not only didn't quit working, but ninety percent of them used their UBI to either start up their own businesses or improve an existing one they had. It caused a major economic boom even though Kenya was suffering from severe drought at the time.

Overall the evidence from actual experiments is pretty clear, no UBI has ever caused people to quit working, most have increased employment and all of them have improved the health and happiness of the people involved. UBI does have a large number of unexpected knock-on effects, however, and often what people do with the money is completely unexpected, so more experiments are required.

"People just stop working" however, is complete balderdash that has been disproven over and over again, and is mostly the domain of dedicated communists attached to the labor theory of value. It's also because UBI is strongly correlated with people starting up their own small businesses, something that's anathema to authoritarian regimes that prefer to maintain their own control rather than let the peasants be allowed to make their own decisions.
It's not just commies who hate UBI; fiscal and traditional conservatives hate it too from what I've seen.

They cannot grock that the old economic models no longer hold true as universally as they once did, and are actually likely secretly ok with the USSRs 'he who does not work, does not eat' mindset, even though they'd never admit it openly.

I've seen arguments about gov overreach/power grabs, as it relates to UBI, that are more solid critiques of the issue. However, 'people will not work' does seem the go to argument against UBI by parts of both the Left and Right.
 
Cashiers are already getting automated out. Wonder what the next minimum wage job to get automated away will be.
I would put long odds on truckers and cab drivers at this point. I wouldn't be surprised to see insurance costs make it prohibitive to ever drive your own car in the near future once they work the kinks in self-driving cars out, followed by schools dropping Driver's ed so that nobody remembers how anymore.
 

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