Alternate History Ideas and Discussion

[WolfBear]

If the United States of Greater Austria plan ever gets implemented:

And/or if Russia will still become a multinational federation, but NOT under Bolshevik/Communist rule, what are the odds of a peaceful breakup of either of these two countries once some kind of severe internal crisis will occur?

What are your own thoughts on this, @sillygoose?

And Yes, I know that Franz Ferdinand ultimately came to oppose the USoGA plan. This doesn't necessarily mean that a future A-H Kaiser won't bring it up again, though.

 

[stevep]

'AHC: Get the Franco-Russian alliance terminated without a Bolshevik coup/revolution in Russia'

Possibly no WWI and Russia starts looking too powerful, although it would need to go a long way to get over French fears of Germany and desires for the return of A-L.

 

[stevep]

If the United States of Greater Austria plan ever gets implemented:

And/or if Russia will still become a multinational federation, but NOT under Bolshevik/Communist rule, what are the odds of a peaceful breakup of either of these two countries once some kind of severe internal crisis will occur?

It would depend on the circumstances both internal and external. However the USGA I suspect would be the most vulnerable because the central power/dominant group [i.e. Germans] are a minority and also a number of areas might be inclined towards joining neighbours - such as W Galacia if an independent Poland is established after WWI or Transylvania with regards to Romania. Plus how well would the Magyar aristocracy take their loss of power if the franchise is greatly expanded. Not to mention your likely still to have Italy niggling about territories in SW. Croatia is unlikely to want to join Serbia because of historical and religious differences but not sure what would happen with BHZ.

Possibly if Karl got a decent chance and was able to lead the new state skillfully it might establish a stable and decently wealthy state which become more lasting but its going to be a tough task until most of the population is decent happy with the set up.

The Russian led federation is likely to be more stable simply because Russia is so great a majority of the population plus assuming there's not strong Russification tendencies its likely of have Ukranian and Belarus support. Depending on the nature of the union it could still see pressure for independence in Finland and the Baltics which with some restrictions might be accepted and in Central Asia which St Petersburg/Moscow might be less willing to accept.

 

[sillygoose]

What are your own thoughts on this, @sillygoose?

And Yes, I know that Franz Ferdinand ultimately came to oppose the USoGA plan. This doesn't necessarily mean that a future A-H Kaiser won't bring it up again, though.

I don't think anyone supported it, just the guy who proposed it.

 

[WolfBear]

I don't think anyone supported it, just the guy who proposed it.

Otto von Hapsburg was a Pan-Europeanist, being in charge of this organization for over 30 years in real life:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paneuropean_Union

Had A-H survived and he subsequently inherited its throne, he could have possibly transformed A-H into a mini-EU.

 

[WolfBear]

Possibly no WWI and Russia starts looking too powerful, although it would need to go a long way to get over French fears of Germany and desires for the return of A-L.

Wouldn't it benefit the French to have a powerful ally, though? Or would the risk of a conflict with the Germanic powers not be considered worth it, especially if Britain will outright ally with Germany at some future point in time?

It would depend on the circumstances both internal and external. However the USGA I suspect would be the most vulnerable because the central power/dominant group [i.e. Germans] are a minority and also a number of areas might be inclined towards joining neighbours - such as W Galacia if an independent Poland is established after WWI or Transylvania with regards to Romania. Plus how well would the Magyar aristocracy take their loss of power if the franchise is greatly expanded. Not to mention your likely still to have Italy niggling about territories in SW. Croatia is unlikely to want to join Serbia because of historical and religious differences but not sure what would happen with BHZ.

Possibly if Karl got a decent chance and was able to lead the new state skillfully it might establish a stable and decently wealthy state which become more lasting but its going to be a tough task until most of the population is decent happy with the set up.

The Russian led federation is likely to be more stable simply because Russia is so great a majority of the population plus assuming there's not strong Russification tendencies its likely of have Ukranian and Belarus support. Depending on the nature of the union it could still see pressure for independence in Finland and the Baltics which with some restrictions might be accepted and in Central Asia which St Petersburg/Moscow might be less willing to accept.

Good analysis, Steve. And FWIW, I think that any USoGA could rely on Germany to protect its territorial integrity, no? And I think that we might need to wait for Karl's son Otto to reorganize A-H rather than to have Karl himself do this. Though FWIW, I think that it would be easier if FF lived, then he imposed sweeping changes in Hungary, then Karl came after him, and then Otto came after Karl.

 

[sillygoose]

Otto von Hapsburg was a Pan-Europeanist, being in charge of this organization for over 30 years in real life:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paneuropean_Union

Had A-H survived and he subsequently inherited its throne, he could have possibly transformed A-H into a mini-EU.

Otto became what he was because of the dissolution of the empire and the early death of his father, it is very difficult to say what he would have supported in an ATL where there was no WW1, Nazis, or the fall of the Empire.

 

[WolfBear]

Otto became what he was because of the dissolution of the empire and the early death of his father, it is very difficult to say what he would have supported in an ATL where there was no WW1, Nazis, or the fall of the Empire.

At the very least, it's possible that Otto, as a man of culture, could have still become a Pan-Europeanist even while he would have remained an A-H royal and eventually Kaiser. Not guaranteed, of course, but our personalities are somewhat shaped by our genes. If there would have been a rise of liberalism, socialism, and universalism even in a no-WWI Europe, then it's not out of the question that Pan-European ideas could still eventually appeal to Otto, perhaps with him viewing such ideas as a necessary bridge to the 20th century to maintain his dynasty's legitimacy in the eyes of his people.

 

[sillygoose]

At the very least, it's possible that Otto, as a man of culture, could have still become a Pan-Europeanist even while he would have remained an A-H royal and eventually Kaiser. Not guaranteed, of course, but our personalities are somewhat shaped by our genes. If there would have been a rise of liberalism, socialism, and universalism even in a no-WWI Europe, then it's not out of the question that Pan-European ideas could still eventually appeal to Otto, perhaps with him viewing such ideas as a necessary bridge to the 20th century to maintain his dynasty's legitimacy in the eyes of his people.

I guess it comes down more to what the social circles we run in think; without A-H breaking up or no WW1 then cultural perspectives of the ruling class could be very different; Otto was not around those people after he was exiled, so probably became quite a bit more liberal than he otherwise would have been.

 

[WolfBear]

I guess it comes down more to what the social circles we run in think; without A-H breaking up or no WW1 then cultural perspectives of the ruling class could be very different; Otto was not around those people after he was exiled, so probably became quite a bit more liberal than he otherwise would have been.

Possibly. But then again, even an A-H royal can get exposed to different and new viewpoints by reading literature, et cetera. So, while it's certainly possible that Otto would grow up in a more conservative milieu had A-H survived and especially avoided WWI, this doesn't necessarily mean that he'd be completely immune to all outside influences. If this guy will still write about Pan-Europeanism in this TL, Otto von Hapsburg might still get access to his book(s) and read it/them sooner or later:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_von_Coudenhove-Kalergi

Just like Kaiser Bill read books that he himself acquired an interest in, such as this one:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Influence_of_Sea_Power_upon_History

That specific book helped serve as an inspiration for Kaiser Bill's support of Germany's naval construction program, IIRC.

 

[Buba]

Just as well Otto might read Starship Troopers and impose a Service Guarantees Citizenship regime.
No voting rights for shysters!

And speaking of Heinlein influences on Otto - polyarmory for teh win!

 

[WolfBear]

Just as well Otto might read Starship Troopers and impose a Service Guarantees Citizenship regime.
No voting rights for shysters!

And speaking of Heinlein influences on Otto - polyarmory for teh win!

Yass about polyamory!

But Yeah, I do think that a well-read European prince or monarch could have their political, social, et cetera views be shaped to some extent by the books that they will read. And of course the books that they will read could of course depend on their own prior preferences, which no doubt are at least in part shaped by one's genes.

 

[WolfBear]

What if Russia decides to flood Novorossiya with Russians (formerly known as Great Russians) starting from the late 18th century onwards, viewing Little Russians (aka Ukrainians) as too unreliable for this task due to them previously being ruled by Poland for several centuries?

 

[stevep]

Wouldn't it benefit the French to have a powerful ally, though? Or would the risk of a conflict with the Germanic powers not be considered worth it, especially if Britain will outright ally with Germany at some future point in time?

That is the chief problem. However if say there's no WWI and by 1920 Russia looks so powerful that Germany is forced to look for allies and become more friendly with Britain - which is admittedly difficult with Willie in power and Tirpitz having his ear. However if their desperate for security and also Britain could well be concerned about Russian power. In that case if France is faced with renewed isolation other that with Russia in the short term its going to cling more to the Russian alliance. However in the longer term this could be seen as increasingly an handicap. With the fear that Russia might prompt a big war in which case an isolated France is faced with war with Germany and Britain. Hence a move towards making clear to St Petersburg that Paris won't support it in a war unless its clearly a defensive one. Which would effectively end the alliance as a threat towards a Germany seeing Russia as such a great threat its only going to risk war as a desperate measure.

Good analysis, Steve. And FWIW, I think that any USoGA could rely on Germany to protect its territorial integrity, no? And I think that we might need to wait for Karl's son Otto to reorganize A-H rather than to have Karl himself do this. Though FWIW, I think that it would be easier if FF lived, then he imposed sweeping changes in Hungary, then Karl came after him, and then Otto came after Karl.

It depends on how things went. FF shaking things up say ~1916-17 then dying shortly afterwards - possibly even in an assassination from an hard line internal opponent of reform and this prompts a further incentive for reform and liberalization under Karl. Otto might take things further but I agree with SG that the changes are such we have no idea what Otto would be like in TTL especially with a PoD say in 1914 which averts WWI. He would still be a baby at this stage.

In terms of Germany its likely to be a friendly ally in the short term. However this could change if either
a) You get a nationalist movement that seeks to unite all Germans inside Germany, which of course would cause tensions in the USoGA.
b) Possibly reform in the USoGA which gives more rights to other groups, especially the assorted Slavs could cause tensions in a Germany with the 1914 border because it prompts its Polish minority at least to seek say some degree of autonomy. Of course a successful USoGA is going to cause even greater tensions with imperial Russia. Both because its providing a decent alternative to Russia's pan-slavish ideas and because Russia also has a lot of other minorities which would see the USoGA as an example to them.

 

[stevep]

Just as well Otto might read Starship Troopers and impose a Service Guarantees Citizenship regime.
No voting rights for shysters!

And speaking of Heinlein influences on Otto - polyarmory for teh win!

Now that a nasty thought indeed. A USoGA that turns into a militaristic and fascist nightmare.

 

[WolfBear]

Now that a nasty thought indeed. A USoGA that turns into a militaristic and fascist nightmare.

Multicultural Fascism!

That is the chief problem. However if say there's no WWI and by 1920 Russia looks so powerful that Germany is forced to look for allies and become more friendly with Britain - which is admittedly difficult with Willie in power and Tirpitz having his ear. However if their desperate for security and also Britain could well be concerned about Russian power. In that case if France is faced with renewed isolation other that with Russia in the short term its going to cling more to the Russian alliance. However in the longer term this could be seen as increasingly an handicap. With the fear that Russia might prompt a big war in which case an isolated France is faced with war with Germany and Britain. Hence a move towards making clear to St Petersburg that Paris won't support it in a war unless its clearly a defensive one. Which would effectively end the alliance as a threat towards a Germany seeing Russia as such a great threat its only going to risk war as a desperate measure.

Sounds reasonable. In which case we could see a Central European (Central Powers) NATO-style alliance that includes the UK while France would be friendly towards it and Russia would be hostile towards it, most likely. I also wonder if Germany would try militarily intervening in Russia if Russia will ever still experience a revolution and a civil war in this TL in order to support secessionist movements there. Germany could, of course, also support reactionaries in Russia during a hypothetical civil war there in exchange for them agreeing to end the Franco-Russian alliance, but if France will already publicly declare that it will not support Russia in any offensive wars, then doing this might not be perceived as being necessary.

It depends on how things went. FF shaking things up say ~1916-17 then dying shortly afterwards - possibly even in an assassination from an hard line internal opponent of reform and this prompts a further incentive for reform and liberalization under Karl. Otto might take things further but I agree with SG that the changes are such we have no idea what Otto would be like in TTL especially with a PoD say in 1914 which averts WWI. He would still be a baby at this stage.

FWIW, our personalities are in part shaped by our genes, which are obviously the same ever since we are born and probably even before that as well. Environment has some effect, no doubt, but it's not the entirety of the story.

In terms of Germany its likely to be a friendly ally in the short term. However this could change if either
a) You get a nationalist movement that seeks to unite all Germans inside Germany, which of course would cause tensions in the USoGA.

Germany's Prussian elite did not want more Catholics in Germany.

b) Possibly reform in the USoGA which gives more rights to other groups, especially the assorted Slavs could cause tensions in a Germany with the 1914 border because it prompts its Polish minority at least to seek say some degree of autonomy. Of course a successful USoGA is going to cause even greater tensions with imperial Russia. Both because its providing a decent alternative to Russia's pan-slavish ideas and because Russia also has a lot of other minorities which would see the USoGA as an example to them.

A rational German leadership would not see anything wrong with giving Posen home rule. But of course that's not necessarily the leadership that Germany actually had in real life!

And Yeah, Russia could certainly view the USoGA as destabilizing. On the flip side, though, Russian liberals could view the USoGA as an inspirational political model for their own country.

 

[WolfBear]

'AHC: Have France ever become a monarchy again with a PoD of June 1, 1914 or later'

Also, no Nazi victory TLs are allowed here.

For Want of A Sandwich - A Franz Ferdinand Lives Wikibox TL

A complete recension of all entries in the TL

www.alternatehistory.com

 

[Eparkhos]

'AHC: Have France ever become a monarchy again with a PoD of June 1, 1914 or later'

Also, no Nazi victory TLs are allowed here.

For Want of A Sandwich - A Franz Ferdinand Lives Wikibox TL

A complete recension of all entries in the TL

www.alternatehistory.com

I’m pretty sure the TOS means no advocating Nazism, not no timelines about them.

 

[WolfBear]

I’m pretty sure the TOS means no advocating Nazism, not no timelines about them.

I know, but I mean that I don't want my AHC achieved through a Nazi victory TL. I did not mean that Nazi victory TLs are not allowed on this site in general. They can be quite interesting to read, after all. I just don't want them being used to fulfill my AHC here.

 

[stevep]

'AHC: Have France ever become a monarchy again with a PoD of June 1, 1914 or later'

Also, no Nazi victory TLs are allowed here.

For Want of A Sandwich - A Franz Ferdinand Lives Wikibox TL

A complete recension of all entries in the TL

www.alternatehistory.com

Would a royalist France have the same motto and national anthem? Especially isn't the three lilies the Bourbon symbol so if it was them rather than the Bonaparte or Orleans options I suspect that they would not like such symbols of the revolution that initially removed them from power and killed off a good bit of their family.

A 1-6-14 POD does give the potential to avoid WWI although possibly you can have some conflict in which Germany wins and imposes the monarch on a defeated France - being quite conservative and monarchistic themselves. However that wouldn't endear them to the population. Plus I'm not sure due to the size of the map how those boundaries match with OTL?

Possibly WWI occurs roughly as OTL but for whatever reason Germany avoids Hitler or any other ardent militaristic and revanchist leadership - or possibly its quickly stamped on by France with something like a strong response to the 1936 attempt to occupy the Rhineland. Thinking of this because a strong and hostile Germany makes for a France looking nervously eastward and hence without really the freedom for major internal changes themselves.

This could work quite well if say France intervenes unilaterally or possibly in alliance with Poland and stamps down hard on German rearmament. This is likely to be unpopular in Britain and probably a number of other states as - without the hindsight we have - its seen as an OOT response. Possibly also unpopular with some elements in France.

This leaves France isolated but fairly secure which gives scope for internal conflicts and tensions to take over. Possibly there's disputes between the right which argues that the intervention shows the need for a strong military while the left argues that now the borders are secured money should be spent on social issues.

Thinking basically you have something like, or getting close to a Spanish civil war scenario and when the dust settles rather than either extreme winning a coalition of more moderate groups, possibly supported by some neighbours who want the chaos ended and one of the monarchist options is selected as a unifying figure - which would probably be more likely to be the Orleanist or Bonaparte rather than the main Bourbon line.

Anyway initial mad ideas that might work.