Interesting and Grey Wolf is a blast from the past I remember although looks like I never saw this one.
I'm uncertain about a Greek-Turkish agreement or a Greek attack on Serbia as the latter two were allies and the enmity between Greece and Turkey was so deep.
Not sure if a Tory government would win a big majority in Britain in the event of a crisis over Irish self-rule. They might well become the largest party but lack a parliamentary majority in part because the Irish 'Nationalists' would be firmly against them and they held a lot of seats. More likely would be a small Tory majority however as could see many feeling the situation in Ireland as a threat to the union, while others would see mutinies, at least verbally support by the Tory party, as a serious threat to British democracy and the rule of law. However that's a relatively minor matter other than it distracts Britain for at least the 1st part of this crisis.
There are two major blocs, Austria - backed by many Slavs - and certainly Germany v Hungarian rebels backed by Russia and probably ultimately France. The Ottomans if they get involved are going to be on the Austrian side as well. However there are two wild cards as well.
a) A Serbian invasion of Bosnia put them at odds with both Hungary and - barring a probably unlikely deal with FF - with Austria as well. Furthermore while there are a fair number of Serbs in the province there are also a lot of Croats and Muslims and given the [or one] alternative is a reforming Vienna based government rather than a repressive Budapest one I think there would be a fair amount of opposition to such an intervention.
b) Similarly a Romanian intervention in Transylvanian is going to upset Austria but nowhere near as much as the Hungarians and hence the Russians if they want to be seen as 'protecting' Hungarian rights.
As such the Balkans are likely to descend into a mess with all against all in a number of places.
Also not sure about the position of Bulgaria. It was alienated from Russia after the Balkan wars and likely to move into the German sphere while if both Serbia and Romania are in the anti-Austrian camp its possible they could attack either or both.
Italy is another wild card as technically an ally of both Austria and Germany. Plus leaving aside the mess that is the immediate Hungarian revolt Russia is the clear international aggressor here [rather than Austria and then Germany as OTL}. As such its bound to support them but with a desire for lands in the NE and also across the Adriatic it might end up either staying neutral or on the opposing side. I can't really see it supporting Austria with anything more than weak diplomatic support unless Austria makes some considerable territorial concessions which seems unlikely.
Assuming, as is probably likely given the date and the fact the immediate threat is a Russian supported Hungarian rebellion, Germany isn't doing a pre-emptive strike on France via Belgium then its likely to be deploying a lot of forces fairly quickly in support of Austria, either directly or by fighting the Russians on their common border. If so and France hasn't upgraded its heavy artillery park then a French attack on Alsace-Lorraine is likely to be at least as big a disaster as OTL. Possibly even more so as Germany would probably have more forces defending there.
Despite the extra 2-3 years of rearmament and logistical development Russia still has serious problems with its army and government so I would expect the CPs to win. Unless the Germans did still do a Schlieffen move through Belgium, which will raise red flags in London Britain is unlikely to get militarily involved. [Although there's likely to be a lot of frantic diplomatic action to try and stop the madness and it will also incentivize the government to end the mess in Ireland]. Germany simply has too much industrial power as well as a central position while here, without a British blockade it can still trade very freely for what it needs.
A lot would depend on what happens with some of the fringe powers, the most powerful being the Ottomans - probably ending up on the Austrian side - and the Italians - could be anywhere but probably being neutral or joining the Russian bloc if they think the latter can win. Plus how Romania and Serbia end up would be anyone's guess. It could be they get away with some territorial gains simply because a weakened Austria decides its not worthwhile pressing them. The war is going to be very bloody - at least compared to what the people around know - but probably less so than OTL as I would expect it to last ~18-24 months before some sort of compromise is agreed. Gains for Germany and the Austrian empire largely/totally intact with possibly also some gains for the Ottomans. [Hopefully the Armenians don't see the wholesale slaughter of OTL but unfortunately I wouldn't rely on it as some of the drivers were there in the Young Turk movement.
] I suspect that the terms being proposed will be milder than OTL Versailles, let alone the sort of ideas that Germany were suggesting if they won.One other wild card I just thought of. Not sure what Japan might do. Sit on the sidelines selling to both sides? If it joins the CPs than an invasion of the Trans-Amur region and N Sakhalin might be options. Alternatively those German colonies look very vulnerable but without British support and if Germany wins that could be costly for them. Or an earlier attempt to control China - although with Britain not tied up in the war that would bring pressure from both Britain and the US.
