WI: Andronikos II killed at Tralleis?
In 1284, Andronikos II campaigned against Turkic bands in Thracesia, culminating in Andronikos' defeat (or draw, sources differ) at Tralleis. What if he had been killed instead?
- The throne is taken by Michael IX, who is only 7 years old at this point. Michael's parents are both dead, leaving the logical regent as Patriarch Gregory II. Gregory is somewhat popular, but he has little support from the army and bureaucracy, which gives Constantine Palaiologos, Michael's uncle, to elbow his way into the regency. Constantine appears to have been a good general and had the support of the army and much of the common people, so the likely outcome is either Constantine displacing Gregory or forming a power-sharing agreement with Constantine running the army and Gregory running the state.
- Militarily, the Byzantines will be in a better place than OTL. The navy has yet to be disbanded and so Constantinople can control its own shorelines and isn't dependent on the Italians. The Sicilian Vespers has already started, so the Neapolitans won't be a factor for several decades.
- Constantine, and the upper ranks of the army as well, will likely be quite upset by the Turks killing Andronikos and so will launch campaigns across the Anatolian frontier to push them back. However, this won't be the most effective, as the Byzantines would be grabbing cities and valleys only for them to be overrun the second the army goes someplace else, similar to OTL efforts. However, I suspect that Constantine, or at least one of the Anatolian military governors--the connections that got Philanthropenos and Tarchaneiotes into power will remain ITTL, so the Byzantines will have several very effective generals/rulers--will cotton on to this and embrace the ideas of Constantine Lakharnes, an obscure OTL figure who proposed creating lines of forts and fortified settlements to defend and expand the frontier but was shot down because of cost. The Byzantines will successfully push back into the interior, probably pushing back to the rim of the Plateau. Philanthropenos' OTL habit of allying with some Turks against others and creating Turkish auxiliaries will probably be continued, which will help with on-the-ground control and hopefully divide the Turks against each other.
- OTL Constantine seems to have had an interest in Macedonia, and it seems possible that, with more resources, he will embark on campaigns in Europe against the Francocratia. Without Andronikos' hiring of the Catalan Company, the Latins will still be squabbling amongst each other and will lack outside support, making them easy to conquer or vassalize. The Byzantines will pick up more land, revenue, and control over the Aegean, all good.
- Economically, the Byzantines will still be struggling with expansive noble control through corrupt pronoia (tax grants). However, without refugees from Anatolia to exacerbate tensions and fuel the creation of an urban underclass, internal tensions will be reduced, and with more control over trade thanks to the surviving navy the central authorities will be able to exert themselves without being dominated by the pronoiars. However, with existing trends continuing, this will just be kicking the can down the road as the nobility tries to exert more and more influence. It will likely take some scare in the majority reign of Michael IX to disrupt this pattern....
Thoughts?
Should I keep going?
