Outright breaking up Germany is probably unlikely, but Germany is likely to get very thoroughly de-Nazified in this TL. Mussolini I would presume would ally with the Anglo-French after the war in order to combat the Soviet/Communist threat. German-Polish relations are likely to be tense for a while if Germany is still likely to lose a lot of territory to Poland, albeit not quite as much as in real life. Germany's best odds here would be to launch an anti-Nazi coup sufficiently early before the Anglo-French are hungry for revenge. Then they could perhaps be allowed to keep Germany's January 1939 borders.
The US will continue to be economically active in Europe but will not make any binding military commitments there. But we could see a Pan-European defense alliance and economic union eventually emerge. The Holocaust would, of course, be much smaller in this scenario if it is to occur at all since the Nazis will never have as many Jews under their rule as they had in real life. Soviet and Hungarian Jews are going to remain unscathed, after all. I wonder what effects this will have on Zionism and the creation of Israel.
I wonder if the Soviet Union will survive up to the present-day in this TL since it won't have the extremely massive WWII casualties from real life and what if one or more of these millions of casualties (born sometime between 1910 and 1927) would have been a Soviet version of Deng Xiaoping who could have outmaneuvered Mikhail Gorbachev and rose to power in the Soviet Union? We'll just never know, right?
Decolonization could be both longer and messier in this TL due to the survival of Anglo-French military power, of course. The Anglo-French will decolonize on their own terms here rather than on US-Soviet terms like in real life. In real life, what helped decolonization movements was that both superpowers were anti-colonialist. This world, however, won't actually have any superpowers, only a whole bunch of Great Powers.
Well OTL Soviet Union loss huge numbers of people in WWII but they did gain:
a) A lot more territory and people.
b) Possibly more importantly the sheer brutality and murderous character of the Nazi regime gave communism renewed legality as some of the propaganda about how hostile the rest of the world was to Russia had been shown to be reasonably accurate.
Lacking this latter then possibly when Stalin dies you could see a scramble for power triggering widespread unrest as people seek to get the hell away from the horrors of the years since 1918. Or possibly even without WWII he descends further into paranoia and excess and triggers some move to remove him. Possibly difficult as he had a personality cult that had been about longer than Hitler's and you know how long the bulk of the Germans fought for him when things were clearly hopeless.