49ersfootball
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Tuberville's using the McConnell Playbook.
United States 2024: United States Senate Dicussion Thread
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2024 United States Senate Elections (Part I)
49ersfootball
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Former US Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI) announced his candidacy for the United States Senate in 2024 on the GOP side: joining former US Rep. Mike Rogers (R), former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) & Board of Education Member Nikki Snyder (R). In the Dem side: US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) is likely going to be the Dem nominee.
The Club for Growth isn't committing to US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) if he chooses to run for the United States Senate in 2024; the NRSC & most of the GOP conservative political establishment is lining up behind former US Navy Seal Tim Sheehy (R). The winner of the GOP primary will face off against three-term incumbent United States Senator John Tester (D-MT) in the general election next fall.
The Club for Growth isn't committing to US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) if he chooses to run for the United States Senate in 2024; the NRSC & most of the GOP conservative political establishment is lining up behind former US Navy Seal Tim Sheehy (R). The winner of the GOP primary will face off against three-term incumbent United States Senator John Tester (D-MT) in the general election next fall.
Huge news from the Mountaineer State: End of an era!
49ersfootball
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@Cherico @Blasterbot @gral @stevep @f1onagher @Zachowon @Husky_Khan @The Whispering Monk @Typhonis @Buba @Stargazer
BREAKING NEWS: United States Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) made it official: he will NOT be seeking reelection to a 3rd full 6-year term in 2024, ending a political career that began in 1982 with his election to the WV House of Delegates representing the 31st District (1982-1986), WV State Senate from Districts 14 & 13 (1986-1996) before winning statewide office as WV's 27th Secretary of State from January 15th, 2001 to January 17th, 2005, WV's 34th Governor from January 17th, 2005 until his resignation on November 15th, 2010 & United States Senator from WV (Class 1) since November 15th, 2010.
Congratulations to the likely Junior United States Senator from the Mountain State: WV Governor Jim Justice (R)!
BREAKING NEWS: United States Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) made it official: he will NOT be seeking reelection to a 3rd full 6-year term in 2024, ending a political career that began in 1982 with his election to the WV House of Delegates representing the 31st District (1982-1986), WV State Senate from Districts 14 & 13 (1986-1996) before winning statewide office as WV's 27th Secretary of State from January 15th, 2001 to January 17th, 2005, WV's 34th Governor from January 17th, 2005 until his resignation on November 15th, 2010 & United States Senator from WV (Class 1) since November 15th, 2010.
Congratulations to the likely Junior United States Senator from the Mountain State: WV Governor Jim Justice (R)!
49ersfootball
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McConnell just became Senate Majority Leader again in 2025.
NRSCC needs to pick-up the following in 2024:
MT
OH
NV
MI
WI
AZ
PA
Video & Tweet from United States Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) announcing he's NOT seeking reelection in 2024
49ersfootball
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strunkenwhite
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Well, technically it would be more accurate to say that it's now extremely challenging for the Democrats to avoid that fate, since they would need to retain every seat you named plus the vice presidency, or flip one of TX/FL/IN/worse for every seat they lose in addition to doomed WV.
49ersfootball
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IN (Open): Unlikely since Banks is heavily favored to win Braun's US Senate seat & keep it in GOP hands: GOP Hold.
FL: Scott could finally win by double digits in 2024. GOP Hold.
TX (my homestate): Cruz will get reelected in 2024 because Allred is too WOKE. Gut feeling Cruz will run for the Presidency in 2028: GOP Hold.
strunkenwhite
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Yes, I agree that all three are very likely to hold. But do you think there are any GOP seats more likely than those to flip?
49ersfootball
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I don't think so. Dems will also have a hard time holding onto more Senate seats in 2026:
VA: Possibility Warner might NOT seek reelection to 4th term in 2026 IF Youngkin runs.
GA: Ossoff might be in trouble if NRSCC convinces Kemp to run here.
MI: Depends if MI GOP isnt incompetent by then.
NM
CO: Hickenlooper might not run again.
strunkenwhite
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Agreed on MI. I view VA and CO as longshots for the GOP not unlike TX and FL for Dems, and I'm not sure if Youngkin would actually be an asset. GA will be closer. Kemp would be a strong candidate in the general election; I would defer to Georgians on whether he'd prevail in a primary.
On the other hand, Dems have more realistic pickup opportunities in that cycle. Collins will have a very hard time keeping Maine and if she retires I think it will be worse. NC will be close again. Alaskan politics are weird. Of course it's possible that the whole landscape might shift but that's how I think it looks now.
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Kemp would have a good chance at winning the general due to his high quality as governor.
And the fact he seems to always favor Georgians over anything else
49ersfootball
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Considering the GA Democratic Party is still worthless.
49ersfootball
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2026 US Senate Outlook:
AK: Sullivan will be there until he kicks the bucket.
ME: Collins might die in office. I cannot see her giving up her Senate seat.
NC: Lucy with the football here: 2020 & 2022 were epic fails by the NC Dems.
They wanted Abrams to be Gov so yes
49ersfootball
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She's a fucking liability!
49ersfootball
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Ossoff & Warnock are keeping those Senate seats until 2026 & 2028. I'm betting the GOP will get those Senate seats in GA back.
With Manchin not seeking reelection in 2024, here's the list of the following Dem United States Senators from the South by Spring 2025:
(DE)
Chris Coons (D-DE)
LBR (D-DE): she's got this locked up.
(MD)
Chris Van Hollen (D-MD)
Alsobrooks (D-MD): likely the Old Line State's first African American woman United States Senator.
(VA)
Mark Warner (D-VA)
Tim Kaine (D-VA)
(GA)
Raphael Warnock (D-GA)
Jon Ossoff (D-GA)
Yeah, I can see Both Warnock and Ossof losing in 26 and 28 respectively if the right person runs against them.
Kemp would be the best candidate.