raharris1973
Well-known member
The two questions are:
1. Is a limited war between a post-Versailles German government/regime and the 2nd Polish Republic plausible/realistic/possible?
The answer might be yes. Supporting logic: A war taking place in a different year or decade, than 1939, or with a different leader than 1939's Hitler, miight have a chance to have an outcome where Germany conquers Gdansk and then ends the, it seizes the Polish corridor and ends the war, or reclaims the 1914 borders and ends the war. Or Poland successfully defends itself or attacks in different, more favorable circumstances, and grabs Danzig, or East Prussia for itself, or Upper Silesia, or eastern Pomerania, and Germany has to sue for peace.
The answer might be no. Supporting logic: The Germans and Poles are both proud, ancient nations who feel some of modern history done 'em wrong, and are determined to hold or restore their rightful place in the pecking order post-Versailles. If one or the other wins a campaign or operation, wipes out an army or two or three of the other, and occupies a contested territory, that is not the end of it. The campaign's loser regards the loss as no more than temporary, and because of pride and fearing domestic retribution, it refuses to sign away any occupied territory, it mobilizes any resources it has, however meager, for any longshot chance to reverse fortune. Both sides do this until the weaker side is completely crushed, occupied, and possibly partitioned. That's because the weaker so will exhaust itself, and the stronger side will get more and more outraged the weaker side won't be reasonable and won't admit defeat, so will be more determined to "teach them a lesson" in defeat.
Please say which interpretation you think is correct. In your reply, please say:
Limited German-Polish War *is* possible
or
Limited German-Polish War *is not* possible
If you choose that it *is* possible, please describe, or if you can, draw, an example of what a realistic example of what changes to the map the winner can force on the loser after how much time fighting
2. Can a war between a post-Versailles German government/regime and the 2nd Polish Republic plausibly/realistically/possibly stay strictly bilateral without other powers getting involved?
The answer might be yes. Supporting logic: Third country reactions to a German Polish war will be shaped by perceptions of whose at fault for the particular war, what German intentions are for Europe in general, how big or small the war is, how much power either side would get and it other countries think that is bad, what their relations have been like with Germany or Poland beforehand (has either broken promises, been grabbing other territories, making threats, etc.). It is possible, that if Germany nor Poland have completely "ruined" their reputation/credibility before they have a war with each other, outside powers would even sit by while one completely crushes/occupies the other.
The answer might be no. Supporting logic: There is no way that all three of France, the USSR, and Britain will avoid involvement in some manner, because a German-Polish conflict is in the middle of Europe and they are all watching it. This is especially the case for an unlimited war where a total German (or Polish) victory makes the winner too strong for the USSR to accept with taking compensation for itself, and a total German victory makes it too strong for France and Britain to accept. The problem with more limited wars, at least German victories, is they still make Germany too strong by making Poland an economic satellite, and are too likely to not look like it will be the final war and cause defensive reactions by UK, France, USSR that will look suspicious to Germany.
Please say which interpretation you think is correct. In your reply, please say:
A stricly bilateral German-Polish War *is* possible
- Here's why...
or
A strictly bilateral German-Polish War *is not* possible - another great power would inevitably participate in a significant way
- Here's why...
1. Is a limited war between a post-Versailles German government/regime and the 2nd Polish Republic plausible/realistic/possible?
The answer might be yes. Supporting logic: A war taking place in a different year or decade, than 1939, or with a different leader than 1939's Hitler, miight have a chance to have an outcome where Germany conquers Gdansk and then ends the, it seizes the Polish corridor and ends the war, or reclaims the 1914 borders and ends the war. Or Poland successfully defends itself or attacks in different, more favorable circumstances, and grabs Danzig, or East Prussia for itself, or Upper Silesia, or eastern Pomerania, and Germany has to sue for peace.
The answer might be no. Supporting logic: The Germans and Poles are both proud, ancient nations who feel some of modern history done 'em wrong, and are determined to hold or restore their rightful place in the pecking order post-Versailles. If one or the other wins a campaign or operation, wipes out an army or two or three of the other, and occupies a contested territory, that is not the end of it. The campaign's loser regards the loss as no more than temporary, and because of pride and fearing domestic retribution, it refuses to sign away any occupied territory, it mobilizes any resources it has, however meager, for any longshot chance to reverse fortune. Both sides do this until the weaker side is completely crushed, occupied, and possibly partitioned. That's because the weaker so will exhaust itself, and the stronger side will get more and more outraged the weaker side won't be reasonable and won't admit defeat, so will be more determined to "teach them a lesson" in defeat.
Please say which interpretation you think is correct. In your reply, please say:
Limited German-Polish War *is* possible
or
Limited German-Polish War *is not* possible
If you choose that it *is* possible, please describe, or if you can, draw, an example of what a realistic example of what changes to the map the winner can force on the loser after how much time fighting
2. Can a war between a post-Versailles German government/regime and the 2nd Polish Republic plausibly/realistically/possibly stay strictly bilateral without other powers getting involved?
The answer might be yes. Supporting logic: Third country reactions to a German Polish war will be shaped by perceptions of whose at fault for the particular war, what German intentions are for Europe in general, how big or small the war is, how much power either side would get and it other countries think that is bad, what their relations have been like with Germany or Poland beforehand (has either broken promises, been grabbing other territories, making threats, etc.). It is possible, that if Germany nor Poland have completely "ruined" their reputation/credibility before they have a war with each other, outside powers would even sit by while one completely crushes/occupies the other.
The answer might be no. Supporting logic: There is no way that all three of France, the USSR, and Britain will avoid involvement in some manner, because a German-Polish conflict is in the middle of Europe and they are all watching it. This is especially the case for an unlimited war where a total German (or Polish) victory makes the winner too strong for the USSR to accept with taking compensation for itself, and a total German victory makes it too strong for France and Britain to accept. The problem with more limited wars, at least German victories, is they still make Germany too strong by making Poland an economic satellite, and are too likely to not look like it will be the final war and cause defensive reactions by UK, France, USSR that will look suspicious to Germany.
Please say which interpretation you think is correct. In your reply, please say:
A stricly bilateral German-Polish War *is* possible
- Here's why...
or
A strictly bilateral German-Polish War *is not* possible - another great power would inevitably participate in a significant way
- Here's why...
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