2 questions, and 2 polls on any war between post-Versailles Germany and 2nd Polish Republic

Can a post-Versailles German-Polish war stay limited, or bilateral?

  • Yes there could be a limited war where the winner takes some border territories

    Votes: 3 60.0%
  • No any German-Polish war would be unlimited and winner-take-all

    Votes: 1 20.0%
  • Yes Germany and Poland could have a private war with no other powers intervening on either's soil

    Votes: 1 20.0%
  • No any German-Polish war would have additional powers intervene to fight Germany or partition Poland

    Votes: 3 60.0%

  • Total voters
    5

raharris1973

Well-known member
The two questions are:

1. Is a limited war between a post-Versailles German government/regime and the 2nd Polish Republic plausible/realistic/possible?

The answer might be yes. Supporting logic: A war taking place in a different year or decade, than 1939, or with a different leader than 1939's Hitler, miight have a chance to have an outcome where Germany conquers Gdansk and then ends the, it seizes the Polish corridor and ends the war, or reclaims the 1914 borders and ends the war. Or Poland successfully defends itself or attacks in different, more favorable circumstances, and grabs Danzig, or East Prussia for itself, or Upper Silesia, or eastern Pomerania, and Germany has to sue for peace.

The answer might be no. Supporting logic: The Germans and Poles are both proud, ancient nations who feel some of modern history done 'em wrong, and are determined to hold or restore their rightful place in the pecking order post-Versailles. If one or the other wins a campaign or operation, wipes out an army or two or three of the other, and occupies a contested territory, that is not the end of it. The campaign's loser regards the loss as no more than temporary, and because of pride and fearing domestic retribution, it refuses to sign away any occupied territory, it mobilizes any resources it has, however meager, for any longshot chance to reverse fortune. Both sides do this until the weaker side is completely crushed, occupied, and possibly partitioned. That's because the weaker so will exhaust itself, and the stronger side will get more and more outraged the weaker side won't be reasonable and won't admit defeat, so will be more determined to "teach them a lesson" in defeat.

Please say which interpretation you think is correct. In your reply, please say:

Limited German-Polish War *is* possible

or

Limited German-Polish War *is not* possible

If you choose that it *is* possible, please describe, or if you can, draw, an example of what a realistic example of what changes to the map the winner can force on the loser after how much time fighting

2. Can a war between a post-Versailles German government/regime and the 2nd Polish Republic plausibly/realistically/possibly stay strictly bilateral without other powers getting involved?

The answer might be yes. Supporting logic: Third country reactions to a German Polish war will be shaped by perceptions of whose at fault for the particular war, what German intentions are for Europe in general, how big or small the war is, how much power either side would get and it other countries think that is bad, what their relations have been like with Germany or Poland beforehand (has either broken promises, been grabbing other territories, making threats, etc.). It is possible, that if Germany nor Poland have completely "ruined" their reputation/credibility before they have a war with each other, outside powers would even sit by while one completely crushes/occupies the other.

The answer might be no. Supporting logic: There is no way that all three of France, the USSR, and Britain will avoid involvement in some manner, because a German-Polish conflict is in the middle of Europe and they are all watching it. This is especially the case for an unlimited war where a total German (or Polish) victory makes the winner too strong for the USSR to accept with taking compensation for itself, and a total German victory makes it too strong for France and Britain to accept. The problem with more limited wars, at least German victories, is they still make Germany too strong by making Poland an economic satellite, and are too likely to not look like it will be the final war and cause defensive reactions by UK, France, USSR that will look suspicious to Germany.

Please say which interpretation you think is correct. In your reply, please say:

A stricly bilateral German-Polish War *is* possible
- Here's why...
or

A strictly bilateral German-Polish War *is not* possible - another great power would inevitably participate in a significant way
- Here's why...
 
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Buba

A total creep
I voted yes to both.
With some nifty German diplomacy and OTL/additional Polish idiocy IMO a localised Polish-German war is possible.
Something like Munich but with Poland instead of Czechoslovakia, with the Entente feeling that it is not ready for war yet ...
 

raharris1973

Well-known member
Something like Munich

Not too much like Munich. Because the Poles will fight for any territory, unlike the Czechs. The similarity is western countries not declaring war over it, that's it.

Your next challenge @Buba. Sketch out what the Polish government surrenders and how it goes about making an armistice and treaty, and then get a Polish member of this board to agree a Polish government would plausibly do that. ;);)
 

Buba

A total creep
Not too much like Munich. Because the Poles will fight for any territory, unlike the Czechs. The similarity is western countries not declaring war over it, that's it.
This is what I had in mind but failed to convey :)

Sketch out what the Polish government surrenders and how it goes about making an armistice and treaty, and then get a Polish member of this board to agree a Polish government would plausibly do that.
IMO it would be a diktat with most of Poland overrun and Warsaw captured, hence more an issue of "whatever Germany wants". Talk about Buba doing a cop out :)
I imagine Germany demanding a 1914 border. Although something along the lines of the 1795 frontier is not off the table either.

I also would expect a "1918 armistice scenario", with the junta pushing forward a civilian to sign anything, so that the military can claim "knife in the back" etc.
The atrociously led (as in OTL) army being kicked silly and pushed to the east of the Bug River has nothing to do with capitulation, of course ...

Now - as to the second part. Can I bribe @ATP with restoration of monarchy? :p
 
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ATP

Well-known member
Not too much like Munich. Because the Poles will fight for any territory, unlike the Czechs. The similarity is western countries not declaring war over it, that's it.

Your next challenge @Buba. Sketch out what the Polish government surrenders and how it goes about making an armistice and treaty, and then get a Polish member of this board to agree a Polish government would plausibly do that. ;);)

There are two problems:
1.Alliance with soviets - one of reasons why germans do not try seriously form their own polish goverment was becouse Sralin say no.He would do so again,and backstab Poland even more quickly then OTL without Allies joining war.

2.Ego of our military dictatorship - they truly belived,that they are geniuses leading superpower.
 

Buba

A total creep
1 - this is without M-R Treaty, probably in autumn after Anschluss. Stalin will not act. He was not a gambler, unlike a certain other leader with a mustache.
2 - hence I advocate a diktat in captured Warsaw.
 

ATP

Well-known member
1 - this is without M-R Treaty, probably in autumn after Anschluss. Stalin will not act. He was not a gambler, unlike a certain other leader with a mustache.
2 - hence I advocate a diktat in captured Warsaw.

Without M-R ,Hitler would not start anything in 1939,but wait till 1942 when army would be ready for war.If he was mad enough to try in 1938,then Germany would not win quickly,or maybe even not win at all - they have no fuel and ammo.Even In 1939 Guderian corp wait near Brześć without fuel,and was saved by soviets.
In 1938 it would be much worst for germans.
Now,without ammo and fuel, they would be no possibility for capturing Warsaw.Not position to dictat anything.

Which mean either limited war in 1938 and small territory changes,or soviets joining and taking both Poland and most of Germany.
After attacking polish weakened armies and germans without both fuel and ammo,they would win quickly.


Second possibility - war in 1942,when germans are ready and quickly crush Poland/in 1939 they have 5:1 advantage in air,in 1942 it would be 10:1.And more panzer dyvisions with modern tanks,not Pz1 or 2.
Problem is - soviet armies would be ready with Kv1 and T.34 tanks,too.So - repeat of WW2 with soviets winning after hard fight.

Why we knew that soviets would join? becouse that was their plan from the start - wait for war,and crush those who remain.
When war do not started on its own,they provoke that by alliance in 1939 with germans.
Very good plan,and it would worked - if french do not heroically surrender in 1940,saving Europe from soviets.

P.S i read excellent book by Piotr Witt "Komu Polska przeszkadza"/who do not want Poland/

And on page 52 we have meeting between Beck and romanian foreign minister Grigore Gafencu in 1939,where he said that Poland would be defeated,but next soviets would conqer germany.All true - but he forget,that Allies would not fight Sralin for Poland freedom.

By the way - his father who was intellinence officer,told him that 24.8.39 agents from Paris told about M-R pact.Our leaders do not belived.
 

Buba

A total creep
I have full faith in Śmigły-Rydz&cronies fucking up in 1938 just as badly as in OTL 1939, thus overcoming any and all Wehrmacht's weaknesses and deficiencies versus 1939.
With cleptomaniac dimwitted donkeys leading lions it will not be two weeks but maybe two months (if that long) - no other difference - Poland still loses 😭

In 1938 Stalin is busy murdering his marshals and generals - the Red Army is in veeery bad shape.
 
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raharris1973

Well-known member
There are two problems:
1.Alliance with soviets - one of reasons why germans do not try seriously form their own polish goverment was becouse Sralin say no.He would do so again,and backstab Poland even more quickly then OTL without Allies joining war.

2.Ego of our military dictatorship - they truly belived,that they are geniuses leading superpower.

I am trying to interpret what your response means in terms of answering my original questions, in the opening post, because I don't think you added to the poll.

It sounds like you think - A war cannot be limited, it must be winner take all, resulting in total partition of Poland by Germans and Soviets,

....and

A war cannot be bilateral- The western Allies might stay out, but the Soviets would participate. So it would never be Germany vs Poland alone and privately.

Was that your thinking?

By the way, you don't have to decide right away. Your reference to Stalin and the Polish junta makes me think you weren't making full use of the freedom of imagination I have given you.

My question is about *any* hypothetical German-Polish war after 1919 Treaty of Versailles. You can make up the circumstances and timing. Hitler and the Nazis do not *have* to be in Germany, Stalin does not *have* to be top dog in the Bolshevik state, Rydz-Smigly doesn't have to be top-dog in Poland.
 

ATP

Well-known member
I am trying to interpret what your response means in terms of answering my original questions, in the opening post, because I don't think you added to the poll.

It sounds like you think - A war cannot be limited, it must be winner take all, resulting in total partition of Poland by Germans and Soviets,

....and

A war cannot be bilateral- The western Allies might stay out, but the Soviets would participate. So it would never be Germany vs Poland alone and privately.

Was that your thinking?

By the way, you don't have to decide right away. Your reference to Stalin and the Polish junta makes me think you weren't making full use of the freedom of imagination I have given you.

My question is about *any* hypothetical German-Polish war after 1919 Treaty of Versailles. You can make up the circumstances and timing. Hitler and the Nazis do not *have* to be in Germany, Stalin does not *have* to be top dog in the Bolshevik state, Rydz-Smigly doesn't have to be top-dog in Poland.

That changed everything.
Main problem with scenarios with both soviets and Hitler are:

1.Sralin goal was to wait for war and beat weakened victor,when war do not started he do that by making pact with Hitler.
But - he acted becouse he was commie beliver.Every other soviet leader would try take over Europe and later world,becouse it was part of their ideology.
As long as soviet existed,they would join war between Poland and Russia and try to use it as tool to take over Europe.
You must change regime in Moscow for something else,if you want war between Poland and Germany only.

Maybe Russia ruled not by red or white,but blacks or green ?

2.Hitler was stupid racist.In 1941 entire soviet regiments,even dyvisions surrender without fight becouse they hated soviets.German generals wonted use them,Hitler start treating them in the way which made them fight him.
So,he do not agree to sople peace with Poland,he must conqer and genocide us.No peace,then.

Before 1926 putch,Poland was ruled by 2-3 parties who fought over everything,but leave military to professionals - who decide to partially motorize army/5 dyvisions and 20 tank battalions/ and added strong air force supporting army/2300 planes/
There were money for that,and plan from 1926 to 1938.

Piłsudzki after putch fucked it.But,let assume,that his putch failed.Poland is democracy with modern army,and Hitler start his bullshit.We crush him when he send troops in 1936 to Rhineland,or defeat in 1938.Polish nationalists in OTL considered military putch to take power and help czech,now they simply would send troops.
We would have 65 dyvisions/5 motorized/,so we would still win quickly enough to prevent soviets from joining.

Another scenario - germany ruled by somebody else then Hitler start war anyway.French historian Jacques Bainville wrote about that in 1919.
Democratic Poland would beat them before 1938,Ruled bu Sanacja would be crushed in 1939 like in OTL - but this time,with England blessing.
Which still mean war with soviets.
 
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WolfBear

Well-known member
I think that, if Germany was actually willing to deal with the effects of sanctions (which could last for quite a while), there could eventually be a limited war between Poland and (Germany + the Soviet Union). Germany would annex Danzig and the Polish Corridor, minus Gdynia, which would remain Polish and be connected to Poland by an extraterritorial road. (There's no way in Hell that the West will agree to a Polish loss of Gdynia, period.) As for the Soviet Union, it will expand up to the Curzon Line and then stop, with a rump Polish state remaining in most of the Polish territories west of the Curzon Line.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
There are two problems:
1.Alliance with soviets - one of reasons why germans do not try seriously form their own polish goverment was becouse Sralin say no.He would do so again,and backstab Poland even more quickly then OTL without Allies joining war.

2.Ego of our military dictatorship - they truly belived,that they are geniuses leading superpower.
Somewhat off-topic, but I have a question: Had there been a Polish collaborationist government in WWII, would much more Polish Jews have survived the Holocaust? I'm asking because in places such as Romania, Bulgaria, and even Hungary, there were much more Jewish Holocaust survivors percentage-wise than there were in Poland. Most Polish Jews who survived the Holocaust were able to do so due to them being deported to the interior of the Soviet Union by Joseph Stalin in 1939-1941, ironically enough.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
That's the 2nd point. Maybe I worded it poorly.
Now to answer your question - yes, quite likely.

FWIW, I was thinking of the Second Polish Republic still getting destroyed by the Nazis but also having the Nazis create a Polish puppet state as opposed to ruling over the Poles directly.

As a side note, I know that food shortages were a huge issue for Nazi Germany in late 1941, when they began the Holocaust. Adam Tooze writes about this in Wages of Destruction.
 

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