The GOP is gonna get blown out in the House. What is taking place now is laying the ground for the Democrats taking the House.
I've heard it's conventional wisdom that a big loss is often preceded by lots of veterans preemptively throwing in the towel, but it's good to remember there's always going to be significant churn in a body that large and there have been false positives before from looking at that. What I suspect is extraordinary is the number of committee chairs that are not running for reelection.
There may or may not be a big loss coming, but conventional wisdom is useless during the modern era. History is being made and we're in the middle of a political realignment and reshaping of our nations institutions. All bets are off here
I'd argue it depends on the conventional wisdom in question. "Old politicians retire rather than having to deal with a new, challenging environment as the ground shifts under their feet" seems like an evergreen idea that if anything would have more currency in a political realignment.
Big question is how many seats would Democrats flip in the US House of Representatives in November regaining the lower chamber?